Potential determinants of the decline in mpox cases in Belgium: a behavioral, epidemiological and seroprevalence study.

OBJECTIVE: The 2022 mpox epidemic reached a peak in Belgium and the rest of Europe in July 2022, after which it unexpectedly subsided. This study investigates epidemiological, behavioral, and immunological factors behind the waning of the epidemic in Belgium. METHODS: We investigated temporal evolutions in the characteristics and behavior of mpox patients using national surveillance data and data from a prospective registry of mpox patients in the Institute of Tropical Medicine (Antwerp). We studied behavioral changes in the population at risk using a survey among HIV-pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users. We determined the seroprevalence of anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies among HIV-PrEP users across four time points in 2022. RESULTS: Mpox patients diagnosed at the end of the epidemic had less sexual risk behavior compared to those diagnosed earlier: they engaged less in sex at mass events, had fewer sexual partners and were less likely to belong to the sexual network's central group. Among HIV-PrEP users there were no notable changes in sexual behavior. Anti-orthopoxvirus seroprevalence did not notably increase before the start of national vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSION: The observed changes in group immunity and behavior in the population at greater risk of exposure to mpox seem unable to explain the waning of the mpox epidemic. A change in the profile of mpox patients might have contributed to the decline in cases.

Prevalence of chronic HCV infection in EU/EEA countries in 2019 using multiparameter evidence synthesis.

Background: Epidemiological data are crucial to monitoring progress towards the 2030 Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination targets. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of chronic HCV infection (cHCV) in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries in 2019. Methods: Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) was used to produce national estimates of cHCV defined as: π = πrecρrec + πexρex + πnonρnon; πrec, πex, and πnon represent cHCV prevalence among recent people who inject drugs (PWID), ex-PWID, and non-PWID, respectively, while ρrec, ρex, and ρnon represent the proportions of these groups in the population. Information sources included the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) national operational contact points (NCPs) and prevalence database, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction databases, and the published literature. Findings: The cHCV prevalence in 29 of 30 EU/EEA countries in 2019 was 0.50% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 0.46%, 0.55%]. The highest cHCV prevalence was observed in the eastern EU/EEA (0.88%; 95% CrI: 0.81%, 0.94%). At least 35.76% (95% CrI: 33.07%, 38.60%) of the overall cHCV prevalence in EU/EEA countries was associated with injecting drugs. Interpretation: Using MPES and collaborating with ECDC NCPs, we estimated the prevalence of cHCV in the EU/EEA to be low. Some areas experience higher cHCV prevalence while a third of prevalent cHCV infections was attributed to PWID. Further efforts are needed to scale up prevention measures and the diagnosis and treatment of infected individuals, especially in the east of the EU/EEA and among PWID. Funding: ECDC.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Belgian HIV epidemic: slowdown of HIV transmission and testing and adaptation of care.

BACKGROUND: To gain insight into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures on the HIV epidemic and services, this study aims to describe HIV trends in 2020 and compare them with previous years. METHODS: Belgian national HIV surveillance data 2017-2020 were analysed for trends in HIV testing, HIV diagnoses, VL measurements, ART uptake and PrEP purchase. Descriptive statistics from 2020 are compared to annual averages from 2017 to 2019 (proportional difference, %). RESULTS: In 2020, 725 HIV infections were diagnosed in Belgium (- 21.5% compared to 2019). The decline was most pronounced during the first lockdown in April-May but also present in July-December. The number of HIV tests performed decreased by 17.6% in 2020, particularly in March-May and October-December (- 57.5% in April and -25.4% in November 2020 compared to monthly 2017-19 numbers). Diagnosis of acute HIV infections decreased by 47.1% in 2020 (n = 27) compared to 2019 (n = 51). Late HIV diagnoses decreased by 24.7% (95% CI [- 40.7%; -9.7%]) in 2020 compared to 2019. Of patients in care in 2019, 11.8% interrupted HIV care in 2020 compared to 9.1% yearly in the 3 previous years. The number of HIV patients with VL monitoring per month dropped in March-May 2020, whilst proportions of VL suppression and ART coverage remained above 86% and 98.5% respectively in 2020. PrEP purchases, number of purchasers and starters dropped during April-May 2020 (respectively - 45.7%, - 47.4%, - 77.9% in April compared to February 2020). CONCLUSIONS: The significant decrease in HIV diagnoses in Belgium in 2020 coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic and following containment measures, particularly in April-May during the first lockdown. A slowdown of HIV transmission due to reduced HIV risk exposure is suggested by the halving in diagnosis of acute HIV infections in March-December 2020 compared to the previous year, and the adaptive decrease in PrEP use and PrEP initiation from April onwards. Despite a slight increase in HIV care interruptions, the indicators of quality of HIV care remained stable. Access to prevention, testing and care for all people living with HIV and at risk of acquiring HIV is a priority during and after times of pandemic.

Late diagnosis of HIV: An updated consensus definition.

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, HIV testing frequency has increased, resulting in more people being diagnosed during seroconversion with a temporarily low CD4 count. Using the current consensus definition of late HIV presentation ('presenting for care with a CD4 count < 350 cells/µL or an AIDS-defining event, regardless of CD4 count') these individuals would be incorrectly assigned as being diagnosed late. METHODS: In spring 2022, a European expert group convened to revise the current late HIV presentation consensus definition. A survey on data availability to apply this revised definition was sent to nominated European focal points responsible for HIV surveillance (n = 53). RESULTS: Experts agreed that the updated definition should refer to late HIV diagnosis rather than presentation and include the following addition: People with evidence of recent infection should be reclassified as 'not late', with evidence of recent infection considered hierarchically. The individual must have: (i) laboratory evidence of recent infection; (ii) a last negative HIV test within 12 months of diagnosis; or (iii) clinical evidence of acute infection. People with evidence of being previously diagnosed abroad should be excluded. A total of 18 countries responded to the survey; 83% reported capturing CD4 count and/or AIDS at diagnosis through national surveillance, 67% captured last negative test and/or previous HIV diagnosis, 61% captured seroconversion illness at diagnosis and 28% captured incident antibody results. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate data on late diagnosis are important to describe the effects of testing programmes. Reclassification of individuals with recent infection will help to better identify populations most at risk of poor HIV outcomes and areas for intervention.

Insights into the association of ACEIs/ARBs use and COVID-19 prognosis: a multistate modelling study of nationwide hospital surveillance data from Belgium.

OBJECTIVES: The widespread use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) by patients with chronic conditions raised early concerns on the potential exacerbation of COVID-19 severity and fatality. Previous studies addressing this question have used standard methods that may lead to biased estimates when analysing hospital data because of the presence of competing events and event-related dependency. We investigated the association of ACEIs/ARBs' use with COVID-19 disease outcomes using time-to-event data in a multistate setting to account for competing events and minimise bias. SETTING: Nationwide surveillance data from 119 Belgian hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Medical records of 10 866 patients hospitalised from 14 March 2020to 14 June 2020 with a confirmed SARS-CoV-19 infection and information about ACEIs/ARBs' use. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Multistate, multivariate Cox-Markov models were used to estimate the hazards of patients transitioning through health states from admission to discharge or death, along with transition probabilities calculated by combining the baseline cumulative hazard and regression coefficients. RESULTS: After accounting for potential confounders, there was no discernable association between ACEIs/ARBs' use and transfer to intensive care unit (ICU). Contrastingly, for patients without ICU transfer, ACEIs/ARBs' use was associated with a modest increase in recovery (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13, p=0.027) and reduction in fatality (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.93, p=0.001) transitions. For patients transferred to ICU admission, no evidence of an association between ACEIs/ARBs' use and recovery (HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.38, p=0.098) or in-hospital death (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.12, p=0.381) was observed. Male gender and older age were significantly associated with higher risk of ICU admission or death. Chronic cardiometabolic comorbidities were also associated with less recovery. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, a multistate model was used to address magnitude and direction of the association of ACEIs/ARBs' use on COVID-19 progression. By minimising bias, this study provided a robust indication of a protective, although modest, association with recovery and survival.

Prevalence estimates of genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection in Belgium: results from two cross-sectional studies.

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) is the most diagnosed sexually transmitted infection in Belgium. Screening programs focus on young women, due to the implications of chronic asymptomatic infections for reproductive health. Thereby, the frequency of infections in men and older adults is underestimated. This study aimed to estimate the point-prevalence of chlamydia in the broader Belgian population, to inform evidence-based prevention and control strategies. METHODS: We conducted two cross-sectional prevalence studies of chlamydia infection in the population of Belgium aged 16-59 years, 2018-2020. In the CT1 study 12,000 representative individuals were randomly selected from the national register and invited by letter to collect a urine sample at home. The CT2 study used urine samples collected through the Belgian Health Examination Survey. Molecular detection of chlamydia DNA was performed using Xpert® or Abbott Real-Time CT/NG assays. Weighted estimated prevalence and 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated per gender and age groups of 16/18-29, 30-44 and 45-59 years, relative to the general Belgian population. Data collected on sociodemographic variables and sexual behavior were used to identify potential risk factors for chlamydia infection through calculation of the odds ratio (OR). RESULTS: The population-wide weighted estimated prevalence was 1.54% (95% CI 0.78-3) in CT1 and 1.76% (95% CI 0.63-4) in CT2. We observed no statistically significant difference between men and women or age groups. Civil relationship status (OR = 14.1 (95% CI 1.78-112), p < 0.01), sexual intercourse with a casual partner (OR = 6.31 (95% CI 1.66-24.1), p < 0.01) and > 3 sexual partners in the last 12 months (OR = 4.53 (95% CI 1.10-18.6), p = 0.02) were associated with higher relative risk for chlamydia infection. CONCLUSION: Nationwide prevalence studies are relevant to assess the distribution of chlamydia and inform public health actions. The overall low prevalence and heterogeneous distribution of chlamydia in the general Belgian population needs to be considered for future strategies and potential harm of testing and treating asymptomatic individuals need to be taken into account. Effective case management should include appropriate treatment of symptomatic patients and partner notification, and prevention strategies should encourage behaviors such as condom use.

Post-migration acquisition of HIV: Estimates from four European countries, 2007 to 2016.

BackgroundThe assumption that migrants acquire human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) before migration, particularly those from high prevalence areas, is common.AimWe assessed the place of HIV acquisition of migrants diagnosed in four European countries using surveillance data.MethodsUsing CD4+ T-cell count trajectories modelled to account for seroconversion bias, we estimated infection year of newly HIV-diagnosed migrants residing in the United Kingdom (UK), Belgium, Sweden and Italy with a known arrival year and CD4+ T-cell count at diagnosis. Multivariate analyses identified predictors for post-migration acquisition.ResultsBetween 2007 and 2016, migrants constituted 56% of people newly diagnosed with HIV in the UK, 62% in Belgium, 72% in Sweden and 29% in Italy. Of 23,595 migrants included, 60% were born in Africa and 70% acquired HIV heterosexually. An estimated 9,400 migrants (40%; interquartile range (IQR): 34-59) probably acquired HIV post-migration. This proportion was similar by risk group, sex and region of birth. Time since migration was a strong predictor of post-migration HIV acquisition: 91% (IQR: 87-95) among those arriving 10 or more years prior to diagnosis; 30% (IQR: 21-37) among those 1-5 years prior. Younger age at arrival was a predictor: 15-18 years (81%; IQR: 74-86), 19-25 years (53%; IQR: 45-63), 26-35 years (37%; IQR: 30-46) and 36 years and older (25%; IQR: 21-33).ConclusionsMigrants, regardless of origin, sex and exposure to HIV are at risk of acquiring HIV post-migration to Europe. Alongside accessible HIV testing, prevention activities must target migrant communities.

The role of organizational characteristics on the outcome of COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have investigated the predictors of in-hospital mortality for COVID-19 patients who need to be admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). However, no data on the role of organizational issues on patients' outcome are available in this setting. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the role of surge capacity organisation on the outcome of critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs in Belgium. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of in-hospital mortality in Belgian ICU COVID-19 patients via the national surveillance database. Non-survivors at hospital discharge were compared to survivors using multivariable mixed effects logistic regression analysis. Specific analyses including only patients with invasive ventilation were performed. To assess surge capacity, data were merged with administrative information on the type of hospital, the baseline number of recognized ICU beds, the number of supplementary beds specifically created for COVID-19 ICU care and the "ICU overflow" (i.e. a time-varying ratio between the number of occupied ICU beds by confirmed and suspected COVID-19 patients divided by the number of recognized ICU beds reserved for COVID-19 patients; ICU overflow was present when this ratio is ≥ 1.0). FINDINGS: Over a total of 13,612 hospitalised COVID-19 patients with admission and discharge forms registered in the surveillance period (March, 1 to August, 9 2020), 1903 (14.0%) required ICU admission, of whom 1747 had available outcome data. Non-survivors (n = 632, 36.1%) were older and had more frequently various comorbid diseases than survivors. In the multivariable analysis, ICU overflow, together with older age, presence of comorbidities, shorter delay between symptom onset and hospital admission, absence of hydroxychloroquine therapy and use of invasive mechanical ventilation and of ECMO, was independently associated with an increased in-hospital mortality. Similar results were found in in in the subgroup of invasively ventilated patients. In addition, the proportion of supplementary beds specifically created for COVID-19 ICU care to the previously existing total number of ICU beds was associated with increased in-hospital mortality among invasively ventilated patients. The model also indicated a significant between-hospital difference in in-hospital mortality, not explained by the available patients and hospital characteristics. INTERPRETATION: Surge capacity organisation as reflected by ICU overflow or the creation of COVID-19 specific supplementary ICU beds were found to negatively impact ICU patient outcomes. FUNDING: No funding source was available for this study.

Rapid establishment of a national surveillance of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 epidemic, caused by a novel coronavirus, it was of great importance to rapidly collect as much accurate information as possible in order to characterize the public health threat and support the health authorities in its management. Hospital-based surveillance is paramount to monitor the severity of a disease in the population. METHODS: Two separate surveillance systems, a Surge Capacity survey and a Clinical survey, were set up to collect complementary data on COVID-19 from Belgium's hospitals. The Surge Capacity survey collects aggregated data to monitor the hospital capacity through occupancy rates of beds and medical devices, and to follow a set of key epidemiological indicators over time. Participation is mandatory and the daily data collection includes prevalence and incidence figures on the number of COVID-19 patients in the hospital. The Clinical survey is strongly recommended by health authorities, focusses on specific patient characteristics and relies on individual patient data provided by the hospitals at admission and discharge. CONCLUSIONS: This national double-level hospital surveillance was implemented very rapidly after the first COVID-19 patients were hospitalized and revealed to be crucial to monitor hospital capacity over time and to better understand the disease in terms of risk groups and outcomes. The two approaches are complementary and serve different needs.

Time between Symptom Onset, Hospitalisation and Recovery or Death: Statistical Analysis of Belgian COVID-19 Patients.

There are different patterns in the COVID-19 outbreak in the general population and amongst nursing home patients. We investigate the time from symptom onset to diagnosis and hospitalization or the length of stay (LoS) in the hospital, and whether there are differences in the population. Sciensano collected information on 14,618 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 admissions from 114 Belgian hospitals between 14 March and 12 June 2020. The distributions of different event times for different patient groups are estimated accounting for interval censoring and right truncation of the time intervals. The time between symptom onset and hospitalization or diagnosis are similar, with median length between symptom onset and hospitalization ranging between 3 and 10.4 days, depending on the age of the patient (longest delay in age group 20-60 years) and whether or not the patient lives in a nursing home (additional 2 days for patients from nursing home). The median LoS in hospital varies between 3 and 10.4 days, with the LoS increasing with age. The hospital LoS for patients that recover is shorter for patients living in a nursing home, but the time to death is longer for these patients. Over the course of the first wave, the LoS has decreased.

Impact of solid cancer on in-hospital mortality overall and among different subgroups of patients with COVID-19: a nationwide, population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cancer seems to have an independent adverse prognostic effect on COVID-19-related mortality, but uncertainty exists regarding its effect across different patient subgroups. We report a population-based analysis of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 with prior or current solid cancer versus those without cancer. METHODS: We analysed data of adult patients registered until 24 May 2020 in the Belgian nationwide database of Sciensano. The primary objective was in-hospital mortality within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis among patients with solid cancer versus patients without cancer. Severe event occurrence, a composite of intensive care unit admission, invasive ventilation and/or death, was a secondary objective. These endpoints were analysed across different patient subgroups. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to analyse the association between cancer and clinical characteristics (baseline analysis) and the effect of cancer on in-hospital mortality and on severe event occurrence, adjusting for clinical characteristics (in-hospital analysis). RESULTS: A total of 13 594 patients (of whom 1187 with solid cancer (8.7%)) were evaluable for the baseline analysis and 10 486 (892 with solid cancer (8.5%)) for the in-hospital analysis. Patients with cancer were older and presented with less symptoms/signs and lung imaging alterations. The 30-day in-hospital mortality was higher in patients with solid cancer compared with patients without cancer (31.7% vs 20.0%, respectively; adjusted OR (aOR) 1.34; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.58). The aOR was 3.84 (95% CI 1.94 to 7.59) among younger patients (<60 years) and 2.27 (95% CI 1.41 to 3.64) among patients without other comorbidities. Severe event occurrence was similar in both groups (36.7% vs 28.8%; aOR 1.10; 95% CI 0.95 to 1.29). CONCLUSIONS: This population-based analysis demonstrates that solid cancer is an independent adverse prognostic factor for in-hospital mortality among patients with COVID-19. This adverse effect was more pronounced among younger patients and those without other comorbidities. Patients with solid cancer should be prioritised in vaccination campaigns and in tailored containment measurements.

Low-dose hydroxychloroquine therapy and mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: a nationwide observational study of 8075 participants.

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has been largely used and investigated as therapy for COVID-19 across various settings at a total dose usually ranging from 2400 mg to 9600 mg. In Belgium, off-label use of low-dose HCQ (total 2400 mg over 5 days) was recommended for hospitalised patients with COVID-19. We conducted a retrospective analysis of in-hospital mortality in the Belgian national COVID-19 hospital surveillance data. Patients treated either with HCQ monotherapy and supportive care (HCQ group) were compared with patients treated with supportive care only (no-HCQ group) using a competing risks proportional hazards regression with discharge alive as competing risk, adjusted for demographic and clinical features with robust standard errors. Of 8075 patients with complete discharge data on 24 May 2020 and diagnosed before 1 May 2020, 4542 received HCQ in monotherapy and 3533 were in the no-HCQ group. Death was reported in 804/4542 (17.7%) and 957/3533 (27.1%), respectively. In the multivariable analysis, mortality was lower in the HCQ group compared with the no-HCQ group [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.684, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.617-0.758]. Compared with the no-HCQ group, mortality in the HCQ group was reduced both in patients diagnosed ≤5 days (n = 3975) and >5 days (n = 3487) after symptom onset [aHR = 0.701 (95% CI 0.617-0.796) and aHR = 0.647 (95% CI 0.525-0.797), respectively]. Compared with supportive care only, low-dose HCQ monotherapy was independently associated with lower mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 diagnosed and treated early or later after symptom onset.

Development and Evaluation of an HIV-Testing Intervention for Primary Care: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: Late diagnosis of HIV fosters HIV transmission and may lead to hidden HIV epidemics. In Belgium, mathematical modeling indicates a high prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infections among men who have sex with men of non-Belgian origin and among sub-Saharan African migrants. Promotion of HIV testing facilitates early diagnosis, but diagnostic opportunities are missed in primary care. OBJECTIVE: The intervention study aims to enhance provider-initiated HIV testing by GPs. This protocol presents the conceptual development, implementation, and evaluation of an HIV-testing intervention for Flemish general practitioners (GPs). METHODS: A mixed methods evaluation design is used. Guided by a simplified intervention mapping approach, an evidence-based intervention was developed in collaboration, guided by an interdisciplinary advisory board. The intervention consisted of an evidence-based tool (ie, "HIV-testing advice for primary care") to support GPs in provider-initiated HIV testing. A modified stepped-wedge design compare two different intervention levels: (1) online dissemination of the HIV-testing advice and (2) dissemination with additional group-level training. Both conditions were compared against a control condition with no intervention. The effect of the intervention was measured using Poisson regression for national surveillance data. The primary outcome was the number of HIV diagnoses made by GPs. Secondary outcomes were HIV diagnoses among groups at risk for undiagnosed HIV, distribution of new diagnoses by CD4 cell count, number of HIV tests prescribed by GPs, and rate of new diagnoses by tests. To evaluate the intervention's implementation, the GPs' fidelity to the intervention and the intervention's feasibility and acceptability by GPs were assessed through (web-based) surveys and in-depth telephone interviews. RESULTS: The study was funded in 2016 and ethically approved in January 2017. The implementation of the intervention started in January 2017 and ended in December 2018. Data was completed in October 2019 and was the starting point for the ongoing data analysis. The results are expected to be published in the second half of 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Results of the intervention study will provide useful information on the intervention's effectiveness among Flemish GPs and can inform further development of official testing guidelines. Limitations of this real-life intervention approach are potential spill-over effects, delay in access to surveillance data, and little detailed information on HIV-testing practices among GPs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04056156; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04056156. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/16486.

Identifying key elements to inform HIV-testing interventions for primary care in Belgium.

General practitioners (GPs) play a key role in reducing the hidden HIV-epidemic, but many diagnostic opportunities are missed in primary care. This study aimed at informing the development of an HIV-testing intervention for GPs in Flanders (Belgium) using formative research with a participatory approach. Through the active involvement of an advisory board and 16 group discussions with 122 Flemish GPs, GPs' current HIV-testing practices and perceived practical relevance of 2 distinct HIV-testing strategies (i.e. provider-initiated testing of key populations and indicator condition-based testing) were explored in terms of their relevance and feasibility in routine primary care. Self-reported HIV-testing practices revealed that most tests performed were patient-initiated, pretest counseling was rarely done, and post-test counseling was offered mainly for patients with an HIV-diagnosis. GPs reported multiple barriers to provider-initiated HIV-testing, i.e. personal discomfort, fear of offending their patient, limited knowledge of benefits of early HIV-diagnosis, misconceptions about HIV-risks, lack of guidelines and time. Difficulties to identify patient's sexual orientation or ethical concerns were mentioned as barriers for target group-based HIV testing. GPs assessed the current list of 64 indicator conditions as too difficult to integrate in routine care, deeming a reduced list of GP-relevant conditions as more feasible. Combined strategies (i.e. target group- and indicator-based testing) supported by official screening recommendations were perceived as successful strategies for provider-initiated HIV-testing in primary care. This formative research delivered qualitative evidence for the development of an HIV-testing intervention for primary care settings.

Exploring HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics by Combining Phylogenetic Analysis and Infection Timing.

HIV-1 pol sequences obtained through baseline drug resistance testing of patients newly diagnosed between 2013 and 2017 were analyzed for genetic similarity. For 927 patients the information on genetic similarity was combined with demographic data and with information on the recency of infection. Overall, 48.3% of the patients were genetically linked with 11.4% belonging to a pair and 36.9% involved in a cluster of ≥3 members. The percentage of early diagnosed (≤4 months after infection) was 28.6%. Patients of Belgian origin were more frequently involved in transmission clusters (49.7% compared to 15.3%) and diagnosed earlier (37.4% compared to 12.2%) than patients of Sub-Saharan African origin. Of the infections reported to be locally acquired, 69.5% were linked (14.1% paired and 55.4% in a cluster). Equal parts of early and late diagnosed individuals (59.9% and 52.4%, respectively) were involved in clusters. The identification of a genetically linked individual for the majority of locally infected patients suggests a high rate of diagnosis in this population. Diagnosis however is often delayed for >4 months after infection increasing the opportunities for onward transmission. Prevention of local infection should focus on earlier diagnosis and protection of the still uninfected members of sexual networks with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected members.

Estimates of the HIV undiagnosed population in Belgium reveals higher prevalence for MSM with foreign nationality and for geographic areas hosting big cities.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing our knowledge on geographic areas and key populations most affected by HIV is essential to improve prevention and care and to ensure a more focused HIV response. Here, we estimated the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infections in Belgium and its distribution across geographic areas and exposure groups. METHODS: We used surveillance data on newly diagnosed HIV cases and a previously developed back-calculation model to estimate number and prevalence rates (per 10000) of undiagnosed HIV infections by exposure group at national and subnational levels. Belgium consists of three regions: Flanders, Brussels-Capital Region and Wallonia. We produced estimates for Brussels-Capital Region and Wallonia. For Flanders, we produced estimates for two sub-regional areas: the province of Antwerp and the other provinces, because Antwerp is the second largest city after Brussels. Population sizes were determined using data from the Belgian Statistical Office and surveys on sexual behaviour and drug use. RESULTS: In Belgium, in 2015, an estimated 2818 (95% confidence interval: 2494 to 3208) individuals were living with undiagnosed HIV, that is, 15% of individuals living with HIV. The Brussels-Capital Region and the province of Antwerp, which host the two biggest cities, accounted for ~60% of the undiagnosed infections, and had the highest undiagnosed prevalence rates per 10000: 12.0 (9.4 to 15.3) and 7.4 (5.6 to 9.8) respectively. Individuals with foreign nationality accounted for 56% of the total number of undiagnosed infections, and were the most affected populations in all areas in terms of undiagnosed prevalence rates. Specifically, men who have sex with men (MSM) with non-European nationality were the most affected population in the province of Antwerp (853.4 (408.2 to 1641.9) undiagnosed infections per 10000), the Brussels-Capital Region (543.9 (289.1 to 1019.1)), and the other provinces of Flanders (691.7 (235.5 to 1442.2)), while in Wallonia, it was heterosexual women with Sub-Saharan African nationality (132.2 (90.6 to 178.5)). CONCLUSIONS: Geographic areas hosting the biggest cities in Belgium accounted for the vast majority of undiagnosed HIV infections and individuals with foreign nationality were the most affected, especially MSM with non-European nationality. This should be accounted for when tailoring prevention and testing programs. Furthermore, MSM with foreign nationality require more attention in Belgium, and certainly more generally in Europe.