Federated causal inference based on real-world observational data sources: application to a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness assessment.

INTRODUCTION: Causal inference helps researchers and policy-makers to evaluate public health interventions. When comparing interventions or public health programs by leveraging observational sensitive individual-level data from populations crossing jurisdictional borders, a federated approach (as opposed to a pooling data approach) can be used. Approaching causal inference by re-using routinely collected observational data across different regions in a federated manner, is challenging and guidance is currently lacking. With the aim of filling this gap and allowing a rapid response in the case of a next pandemic, a methodological framework to develop studies attempting causal inference using federated cross-national sensitive observational data, is described and showcased within the European BeYond-COVID project. METHODS: A framework for approaching federated causal inference by re-using routinely collected observational data across different regions, based on principles of legal, organizational, semantic and technical interoperability, is proposed. The framework includes step-by-step guidance, from defining a research question, to establishing a causal model, identifying and specifying data requirements in a common data model, generating synthetic data, and developing an interoperable and reproducible analytical pipeline for distributed deployment. The conceptual and instrumental phase of the framework was demonstrated and an analytical pipeline implementing federated causal inference was prototyped using open-source software in preparation for the assessment of real-world effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 primary vaccination in preventing infection in populations spanning different countries, integrating a data quality assessment, imputation of missing values, matching of exposed to unexposed individuals based on confounders identified in the causal model and a survival analysis within the matched population. RESULTS: The conceptual and instrumental phase of the proposed methodological framework was successfully demonstrated within the BY-COVID project. Different Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) research objects were produced, such as a study protocol, a data management plan, a common data model, a synthetic dataset and an interoperable analytical pipeline. CONCLUSIONS: The framework provides a systematic approach to address federated cross-national policy-relevant causal research questions based on sensitive population, health and care data in a privacy-preserving and interoperable way. The methodology and derived research objects can be re-used and contribute to pandemic preparedness.

The direct disease burden of COVID-19 in Belgium in 2020 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: Burden of disease estimates have become important population health metrics over the past decade to measure losses in health. In Belgium, the disease burden caused by COVID-19 has not yet been estimated, although COVID-19 has emerged as one of the most important diseases. Therefore, the current study aims to estimate the direct COVID-19 burden in Belgium, observed despite policy interventions, during 2020 and 2021, and compare it to the burden from other causes. METHODS: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) due to disease. DALYs allow comparing the burden of disease between countries, diseases, and over time. We used the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model for COVID-19 to estimate DALYs related to COVID-19. Estimates of person-years for (a) acute non-fatal disease states were calculated from a compartmental model, using Belgian seroprevalence, social contact, hospital, and intensive care admission data, (b) deaths were sourced from the national COVID-19 mortality surveillance, and (c) chronic post-acute disease states were derived from a Belgian cohort study. RESULTS: In 2020, the total number of COVID-19 related DALYs was estimated at 253,577 [252,541 - 254,739], which is higher than in 2021, when it was 139,281 [136,704 - 142,306]. The observed COVID-19 burden was largely borne by the elderly, and over 90% of the burden was attributable to premature mortality (i.e., YLLs). In younger people, morbidity (i.e., YLD) contributed relatively more to the DALYs, especially in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out. Morbidity was mainly attributable to long-lasting post-acute symptoms. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in Belgium, especially in 2020, when COVID-19 would have been the main cause of disease burden if all other causes had maintained their 2019 level.

Assessing potential determinants of the stagnating trend in Salmonella Enteritidis human infections in Europe and options for intervention: A multi-criteria decision analysis.

Background: After years of significant decline, the incidence of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis (SE) human infections in Europe has started stagnating in recent years. The reasons for this stagnation remain largely unclear and are possibly multifactorial and interconnected in nature. We assessed and ranked several potential determinants of the stagnating SE trend in Europe, as well as different options for intervention at the level of poultry health and production, public health (infra)structure, and pathogen biology. Methods: A Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis (MCDA) approach based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process was used. Through two separate surveys, a European panel of Salmonella experts first provided weights for several pre-defined criteria and subsequently scored different potential determinants and options for intervention (i.e. alternatives) against the criteria, during 2020-21. The weighting and scoring were based on Saaty's pairwise comparisons. The final ranking of the alternatives was derived from the summation of the products of each criterion weight with the score of the corresponding alternative. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of different methodological choices, including European regions, and domains of expertise on the ranking of the determinants and options for intervention. Results: The first and second-ranked determinants of the stagnated trend in human SE infections were related to poultry health and production, namely "inadequacies of sampling programmes" and "premature relaxation of control measures". This ranking agreed with the ranking of the options for intervention, which were also those at the poultry health and production level, specifically "stricter biosecurity", "improving sampling", and "better/increased vaccination". Differences in rankings were observed among European regions and domains of expertise. Conclusions: The rankings of potential determinants and options for intervention for the stagnating SE trend in Europe pointed to the level of poultry health and production. Salmonella-control activities in poultry in Europe are harmonized across countries since many years, but the results of this study suggest that further improvements may be necessary for some countries. A multidisciplinary collaboration among veterinarians, public health professionals, and microbiologists is needed to further understand the origins of the stagnating SE trend and to identify effective interventions in order to reverse the trend, contextually in a given country, following a One Health approach.

Homologous and Heterologous Prime-Boost Vaccination: Impact on Clinical Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Infection among Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Belgium.

We investigated effectiveness of (1) mRNA booster vaccination versus primary vaccination only and (2) heterologous (viral vector-mRNA) versus homologous (mRNA-mRNA) prime-boost vaccination against severe outcomes of BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 or BA.5 Omicron infection (confirmed by whole genome sequencing) among hospitalized COVID-19 patients using observational data from national COVID-19 registries. In addition, it was investigated whether the difference between the heterologous and homologous prime-boost vaccination was homogenous across Omicron sub-lineages. Regression standardization (parametric g-formula) was used to estimate counterfactual risks for severe COVID-19 (combination of severity indicators), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and in-hospital mortality under exposure to different vaccination schedules. The estimated risk for severe COVID-19 and in-hospital mortality was significantly lower with an mRNA booster vaccination as compared to only a primary vaccination schedule (RR = 0.59 [0.33; 0.85] and RR = 0.47 [0.15; 0.79], respectively). No significance difference was observed in the estimated risk for severe COVID-19, ICU admission and in-hospital mortality with a heterologous compared to a homologous prime-boost vaccination schedule, and this difference was not significantly modified by the Omicron sub-lineage. Our results support evidence that mRNA booster vaccination reduced the risk of severe COVID-19 disease during the Omicron-predominant period.

Noninvasive integrative approach applied to children in the context of recent air pollution exposure demonstrates association between fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) and urinary CC16.

Exposure to the air pollutant particulate matter (PM) is associated with increased risks of respiratory diseases and enhancement of airway inflammation in children. In the context of large scale air pollution studies, it can be challenging to measure fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) as indicator of lung inflammation. Urinary CC16 (U-CC16) is a potential biomarker of increased lung permeability and toxicity, increasing following short-term PM2.5 exposure. The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) CC16 G38A (rs3741240) affects CC16 levels and respiratory health. Our study aimed at assessing the use of U-CC16 (incl. CC16 G38A from saliva) as potential alternative for FeNO by investigating their mutual correlation in children exposed to PM. Samples from a small-scale study conducted in 42 children from urban (n = 19) and rural (n = 23) schools examined at two time points, were analysed. When considering recent (lag1) low level exposure to PM2.5 as air pollution measurement, we found that U-CC16 was positively associated with FeNO (ß = 0.23; 95% CI [-0.01; 0.47]; p = 0.06) in an adjusted analysis using a linear mixed effects model. Further, we observed a positive association between PM2.5 and FeNO (ß = 0.56; 95% CI [0.02; 1.09]; p = 0.04) and higher FeNO in urban school children as compared to rural school children (ß = 0.72; 95% CI [0.12; 1.31]; p = 0.02). Although more investigations are needed, our results suggest that inflammatory responses evidenced by increased FeNO are accompanied by potential increased lung epithelium permeability and injury, evidenced by increased U-CC16. In future large scale studies, where FeNO measurement is less feasible, the integrated analysis of U-CC16 and CC16 G38A, using noninvasive samples, might be a suitable alternative to assess the impact of air pollution exposure on the respiratory health of children, which is critical for policy development at population level.

Evaluating methodological approaches to assess the severity of infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants: scoping review and applications on Belgian COVID-19 data.

BACKGROUND: Differences in the genetic material of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants may result in altered virulence characteristics. Assessing the disease severity caused by newly emerging variants is essential to estimate their impact on public health. However, causally inferring the intrinsic severity of infection with variants using observational data is a challenging process on which guidance is still limited. We describe potential limitations and biases that researchers are confronted with and evaluate different methodological approaches to study the severity of infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants. METHODS: We reviewed the literature to identify limitations and potential biases in methods used to study the severity of infection with a particular variant. The impact of different methodological choices is illustrated by using real-world data of Belgian hospitalized COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: We observed different ways of defining coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease severity (e.g., admission to the hospital or intensive care unit versus the occurrence of severe complications or death) and exposure to a variant (e.g., linkage of the sequencing or genotyping result with the patient data through a unique identifier versus categorization of patients based on time periods). Different potential selection biases (e.g., overcontrol bias, endogenous selection bias, sample truncation bias) and factors fluctuating over time (e.g., medical expertise and therapeutic strategies, vaccination coverage and natural immunity, pressure on the healthcare system, affected population groups) according to the successive waves of COVID-19, dominated by different variants, were identified. Using data of Belgian hospitalized COVID-19 patients, we were able to document (i) the robustness of the analyses when using different variant exposure ascertainment methods, (ii) indications of the presence of selection bias and (iii) how important confounding variables are fluctuating over time. CONCLUSIONS: When estimating the unbiased marginal effect of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the severity of infection, different strategies can be used and different assumptions can be made, potentially leading to different conclusions. We propose four best practices to identify and reduce potential bias introduced by the study design, the data analysis approach, and the features of the underlying surveillance strategies and data infrastructure.

Changing epidemiology of Salmonella Enteritidis human infections in the Netherlands and Belgium, 2006 to 2019: a registry-based population study.

BackgroundSalmonellosis remains the second most common zoonosis in the European Union despite a long-term decreasing trend. However, this trend has been reported to have stagnated in recent years, particularly for Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis (SE).AimTo describe temporal changes in the incidence of SE human infections, and in its associated factors between 2006 and 2019. In addition, we aim to determine which factors influenced the stagnated trend seen in recent years.MethodsData on culture-confirmed SE human infections from national surveillance registries in the Netherlands and Belgium between 2006 and 2019 were analysed using multivariable negative-binomial regression models with restricted cubic splines.ResultsSE incidence was significantly higher in summer and autumn than winter, in persons aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years than in persons ≥ 60 years, and increased with increasing proportions of travel-related and resistant SE infections. SE incidence decreased significantly in both countries until 2015, followed by an increasing trend, which was particularly pronounced in the Netherlands. Potential SE outbreaks in both countries and invasive infections in the Netherlands also increased after 2015.ConclusionThe increase in potential outbreaks and invasive infections since 2015 may partially explain the observed reversal of the decreasing trend. While these results provide insights into the possible causes of this trend reversal, attention should also be given to factors known to influence SE epidemiology at primary (animal) production and pathogen genomic levels.

Severity of infection with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 lineage among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Belgium.

INTRODUCTION: The pathogenesis of COVID-19 depends on the interplay between host characteristics, viral characteristics and contextual factors. Here, we compare COVID-19 disease severity between hospitalized patients in Belgium infected with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 and those infected with previously circulating strains. METHODS: The study is conducted within a causal framework to study the severity of SARS-CoV-2 variants by merging surveillance registries in Belgium. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 ('exposed') was compared to infection with previously circulating strains ('unexposed') in terms of the manifestation of severe COVID-19, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or in-hospital mortality. The exposed and unexposed group were matched based on the hospital and the mean ICU occupancy rate during the patient's hospital stay. Other variables identified as confounders in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) were adjusted for using regression analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of selection bias, vaccination rollout, and unmeasured confounding. RESULTS: We observed no difference between the exposed and unexposed group in severe COVID-19 disease or in-hospital mortality (RR = 1.15, 95% CI [0.93-1.38] and RR = 0.92, 95% CI [0.62-1.23], respectively). The estimated standardized risk to be admitted in ICU was significantly higher (RR = 1.36, 95% CI [1.03-1.68]) when infected with the B.1.1.7 variant. An age-stratified analysis showed that among the younger age group (≤65 years), the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was significantly associated with both severe COVID-19 progression and ICU admission. CONCLUSION: This matched observational cohort study did not find an overall increased risk of severe COVID-19 or death associated with B.1.1.7 infection among patients already hospitalized. There was a significant increased risk to be transferred to ICU when infected with the B.1.1.7 variant, especially among the younger age group. However, potential selection biases advocate for more systematic sequencing of samples from hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Clinical Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Compared with Delta among Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Belgium during Autumn and Winter Season 2021-2022.

This retrospective multi-center matched cohort study assessed the risk for severe COVID-19 (combination of severity indicators), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and in-hospital mortality in hospitalized patients when infected with the Omicron variant compared to when infected with the Delta variant. The study is based on a causal framework using individually-linked data from national COVID-19 registries. The study population consisted of 954 COVID-19 patients (of which, 445 were infected with Omicron) above 18 years old admitted to a Belgian hospital during the autumn and winter season 2021-2022, and with available viral genomic data. Patients were matched based on the hospital, whereas other possible confounders (demographics, comorbidities, vaccination status, socio-economic status, and ICU occupancy) were adjusted for by using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. The estimated standardized risk for severe COVID-19 and ICU admission in hospitalized patients was significantly lower (RR = 0.63; 95% CI (0.30; 0.97) and RR = 0.56; 95% CI (0.14; 0.99), respectively) when infected with the Omicron variant, whereas in-hospital mortality was not significantly different according to the SARS-CoV-2 variant (RR = 0.78, 95% CI (0.28-1.29)). This study demonstrates the added value of integrated genomic and clinical surveillance to recognize the multifactorial nature of COVID-19 pathogenesis.

Whole-Genome Sequence Approach and Phylogenomic Stratification Improve the Association Analysis of Mutations With Patient Data in Influenza Surveillance.

Each year, seasonal influenza results in high mortality and morbidity. The current classification of circulating influenza viruses is mainly focused on the hemagglutinin gene. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) enables tracking mutations across all influenza segments allowing a better understanding of the epidemiological effects of intra- and inter-seasonal evolutionary dynamics, and exploring potential associations between mutations across the viral genome and patient's clinical data. In this study, mutations were identified in 253 Influenza A (H3N2) clinical isolates from the 2016-2017 influenza season in Belgium. As a proof of concept, available patient data were integrated with this genomic data, resulting in statistically significant associations that could be relevant to improve the vaccine and clinical management of infected patients. Several mutations were significantly associated with the sampling period. A new approach was proposed for exploring mutational effects in highly diverse Influenza A (H3N2) strains through considering the viral genetic background by using phylogenetic classification to stratify the samples. This resulted in several mutations that were significantly associated with patients suffering from renal insufficiency. This study demonstrates the usefulness of using WGS data for tracking mutations across the complete genome and linking these to patient data, and illustrates the importance of accounting for the viral genetic background in association studies. A limitation of this association study, especially when analyzing stratified groups, relates to the number of samples, especially in the context of national surveillance of small countries. Therefore, we investigated if international databases like GISAID may help to verify whether observed associations in the Belgium A (H3N2) samples, could be extrapolated to a global level. This work highlights the need to construct international databases with both information of viral genome sequences and patient data.

Urinary CC16, a potential indicator of lung integrity and inflammation, increases in children after short-term exposure to PM2.5/PM10 and is driven by the CC16 38GG genotype.

Particular matter (PM) exposure is a big hazard for public health, especially for children. Serum CC16 is a well-known biomarker of respiratory health. Urinary CC16 (U-CC16) can be a noninvasive alternative, albeit requiring adequate adjustment for renal handling. Moreover, the SNP CC16 G38A influences CC16 levels. This study aimed to monitor the effect of short-term PM exposure on CC16 levels, measured noninvasively in schoolchildren, using an integrative approach. We used a selection of urine and buccal DNA samples from 86 children stored in an existing biobank. Using a multiple reaction monitoring method, we measured U-CC16, as well as RBP4 (retinol binding protein 4) and ß2M (beta-2-microglobulin), required for adjustment. Buccal DNA samples were used for CC16 G38A genotyping. Linear mixed-effects models were used to find relevant associations between U-CC16 and previously obtained data from recent daily PM ≤ 2.5 or 10 µm exposure (PM2.5, PM10) modeled at the child's residence. Our study showed that exposure to low PM at the child's residence (median levels 18.9 µg/m³ (PM2.5) and 23.6 µg/m³ (PM10)) one day before sampling had an effect on the covariates-adjusted U-CC16 levels. This effect was dependent on the CC16 G38A genotype, due to its strong interaction with the association between PM levels and covariates-adjusted U-CC16 (P = 0.024 (PM2.5); P = 0.061 (PM10)). Only children carrying the 38GG genotype showed an increase of covariates-adjusted U-CC16, measured 24h after exposure, with increasing PM2.5 and PM10 (ß = 0.332; 95% CI: 0.110 to 0.554 and ß = 0.372; 95% CI: 0.101 to 0.643, respectively). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using an integrative approach to investigate short-term PM exposure of children, using urine to detect early signs of pulmonary damage, and taking into account important determinants such as the genetic background and adequate adjustment of the measured biomarker in urine.

Association between COVID-19 Primary Vaccination and Severe Disease Caused by SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant among Hospitalized Patients: A Belgian Retrospective Cohort Study.

We aimed to investigate vaccine effectiveness against progression to severe COVID-19 (acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death) and in-hospital death in a cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Mixed effects logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the association between receiving a primary COVID-19 vaccination schedule and severe outcomes after adjusting for patient, hospital, and vaccination characteristics. Additionally, the effects of the vaccine brands including mRNA vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, and adenovirus-vector vaccines ChAdOx1 (AZ) and Ad26.COV2.S (J&J) were compared to each other. This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included 2493 COVID-19 patients hospitalized across 73 acute care hospitals in Belgium during the time period 15 August 2021-14 November 2021 when the Delta variant (B1.617.2) was predominant. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients that received a primary vaccination schedule had lower odds of progressing to severe disease (OR (95% CI); 0.48 (0.38; 0.60)) and in-hospital death (OR (95% CI); 0.49 (0.36; 0.65)) than unvaccinated patients. Among the vaccinated patients older than 75 years, mRNA vaccines and AZ seemed to confer similar protection, while one dose of J&J showed lower protection in this age category. In conclusion, a primary vaccination schedule protects against worsening of COVID-19 to severe outcomes among hospitalized patients.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of host genetic factors associated with influenza severity.

BACKGROUND: The severity of influenza disease can range from mild symptoms to severe respiratory failure and can partly be explained by host genetic factors that predisposes the host to severe influenza. Here, we aimed to summarize the current state of evidence that host genetic variants play a role in the susceptibility to severe influenza infection by conducting a systematic review and performing a meta-analysis for all markers with at least three or more data entries. RESULTS: A total of 34 primary human genetic association studies were identified that investigated a total of 20 different genes. The only significant pooled ORs were retrieved for the rs12252 polymorphism: an overall OR of 1.52 (95% CI [1.06-2.17]) for the rs12252-C allele compared to the rs12252-T allele. A stratified analysis by ethnicity revealed opposite effects in different populations. CONCLUSION: With exception for the rs12252 polymorphism, we could not identify specific genetic polymorphisms to be associated with severe influenza infection in a pooled meta-analysis. This advocates for the use of large, hypothesis-free, genome-wide association studies that account for the polygenic nature and the interactions with other host, pathogen and environmental factors.

Establishing an ad hoc COVID-19 mortality surveillance during the first epidemic wave in Belgium, 1 March to 21 June 2020.

BackgroundCOVID-19-related mortality in Belgium has drawn attention for two reasons: its high level, and a good completeness in reporting of deaths. An ad hoc surveillance was established to register COVID-19 death numbers in hospitals, long-term care facilities (LTCF) and the community. Belgium adopted broad inclusion criteria for the COVID-19 death notifications, also including possible cases, resulting in a robust correlation between COVID-19 and all-cause mortality.AimTo document and assess the COVID-19 mortality surveillance in Belgium.MethodsWe described the content and data flows of the registration and we assessed the situation as of 21 June 2020, 103 days after the first death attributable to COVID-19 in Belgium. We calculated the participation rate, the notification delay, the percentage of error detected, and the results of additional investigations.ResultsThe participation rate was 100% for hospitals and 83% for nursing homes. Of all deaths, 85% were recorded within 2 calendar days: 11% within the same day, 41% after 1 day and 33% after 2 days, with a quicker notification in hospitals than in LTCF. Corrections of detected errors reduced the death toll by 5%.ConclusionBelgium implemented a rather complete surveillance of COVID-19 mortality, on account of a rapid investment of the hospitals and LTCF. LTCF could build on past experience of previous surveys and surveillance activities. The adoption of an extended definition of 'COVID-19-related deaths' in a context of limited testing capacity has provided timely information about the severity of the epidemic.

Conceptual causal framework to assess the effect of SARS-CoV-2 variants on COVID-19 disease severity among hospitalized patients.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 strains evolve continuously and accumulate mutations in their genomes over the course of the pandemic. The severity of a SARS-CoV-2 infection could partly depend on these viral genetic characteristics. Here, we present a general conceptual framework that allows to study the effect of SARS-CoV-2 variants on COVID-19 disease severity among hospitalized patients. METHODS: A causal model is defined and visualized using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), in which assumptions on the relationship between (confounding) variables are made explicit. Various DAGs are presented to explore specific study design options and the risk for selection bias. Next, the data infrastructure specific to the COVID-19 surveillance in Belgium is described, along with its strengths and weaknesses for the study of clinical impact of variants. DISCUSSION: A well-established framework that provides a complete view on COVID-19 disease severity among hospitalized patients by combining information from different sources on host factors, viral factors, and healthcare-related factors, will enable to assess the clinical impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and answer questions that will be raised in the future. The framework shows the complexity related to causal research, the corresponding data requirements, and it underlines important limitations, such as unmeasured confounders or selection bias, inherent to repurposing existing routine COVID-19 data registries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Each individual research project within the current conceptual framework will be prospectively registered in Open Science Framework (OSF identifier: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/UEF29 ). OSF project created on 18 May 2021.

Whole-genome-based phylogenomic analysis of the Belgian 2016-2017 influenza A(H3N2) outbreak season allows improved surveillance.

Seasonal influenza epidemics are associated with high mortality and morbidity in the human population. Influenza surveillance is critical for providing information to national influenza programmes and for making vaccine composition predictions. Vaccination prevents viral infections, but rapid influenza evolution results in emerging mutants that differ antigenically from vaccine strains. Current influenza surveillance relies on Sanger sequencing of the haemagglutinin (HA) gene. Its classification according to World Health Organization (WHO) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) guidelines is based on combining certain genotypic amino acid mutations and phylogenetic analysis. Next-generation sequencing technologies enable a shift to whole-genome sequencing (WGS) for influenza surveillance, but this requires laboratory workflow adaptations and advanced bioinformatics workflows. In this study, 253 influenza A(H3N2) positive clinical specimens from the 2016-2017 Belgian season underwent WGS using the Illumina MiSeq system. HA-based classification according to WHO/ECDC guidelines did not allow classification of all samples. A new approach, considering the whole genome, was investigated based on using powerful phylogenomic tools including beast and Nextstrain, which substantially improved phylogenetic classification. Moreover, Bayesian inference via beast facilitated reassortment detection by both manual inspection and computational methods, detecting intra-subtype reassortants at an estimated rate of 15 %. Real-time analysis (i.e. as an outbreak is ongoing) via Nextstrain allowed positioning of the Belgian isolates into the globally circulating context. Finally, integration of patient data with phylogenetic groups and reassortment status allowed detection of several associations that would have been missed when solely considering HA, such as hospitalized patients being more likely to be infected with A(H3N2) reassortants, and the possibility to link several phylogenetic groups to disease severity indicators could be relevant for epidemiological monitoring. Our study demonstrates that WGS offers multiple advantages for influenza monitoring in (inter)national influenza surveillance, and proposes an improved methodology. This allows leveraging all information contained in influenza genomes, and allows for more accurate genetic characterization and reassortment detection.

Evaluation of the added value of viral genomic information for predicting severity of influenza infection.

BACKGROUND: The severity of an influenza infection is influenced by both host and viral characteristics. This study aims to assess the relevance of viral genomic data for the prediction of severe influenza A(H3N2) infections among patients hospitalized for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), in view of risk assessment and patient management. METHODS: 160 A(H3N2) influenza positive samples from the 2016-2017 season originating from the Belgian SARI surveillance were selected for whole genome sequencing. Predictor variables for severity were selected using a penalized elastic net logistic regression model from a combined host and genomic dataset, including patient information and nucleotide mutations identified in the viral genome. The goodness-of-fit of the model combining host and genomic data was compared using a likelihood-ratio test with the model including host data only. Internal validation of model discrimination was conducted by calculating the optimism-adjusted area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) for both models. RESULTS: The model including viral mutations in addition to the host characteristics had an improved fit ([Formula: see text]=12.03, df = 3, p = 0.007). The optimism-adjusted AUC increased from 0.671 to 0.732. CONCLUSIONS: Adding genomic data (selected season-specific mutations in the viral genome) to the model containing host characteristics improved the prediction of severe influenza infection among hospitalized SARI patients, thereby offering the potential for translation into a prospective strategy to perform early season risk assessment or to guide individual patient management.

Coverage of the national surveillance system for human Salmonella infections, Belgium, 2016-2020.

INTRODUCTION: The surveillance of human salmonellosis in Belgium is dependent on the referral of human Salmonella isolates to the National Reference Center (NRC). Knowledge of current diagnostic practices and the coverage of the national Salmonella surveillance system are important to correctly interpret surveillance data and trends over time, to estimate the true burden of salmonellosis in Belgium, and to evaluate the appropriateness of implementing whole-genome sequencing (WGS) at this central level. METHODS: The coverage of the NRC was defined as the proportion of all diagnosed human Salmonella cases in Belgium reported to the NRC and was assessed for 2019 via a survey among all licensed Belgian medical laboratories in 2019, and for 2016-2020 via a capture-recapture study using the Sentinel Network of Laboratories (SNL) as the external source. In addition, the survey was used to assess the impact of the implementation of culture-independent diagnostic tests (CIDTs) at the level of peripheral laboratory sites, as a potential threat to national public health surveillance programs. RESULTS: The coverage of the NRC surveillance system was estimated to be 83% and 85%, based on the results of the survey and on the two-source capture-recapture study, respectively. Further, the results of the survey indicated a limited use of CIDTs by peripheral laboratories in 2019. CONCLUSION: Given the high coverage and the limited impact of CIDTs on the referral of isolates, we may conclude that the NRC can confidently monitor the epidemiological situation and identify outbreaks throughout the country. These findings may guide the decision to implement WGS at the level of the NRC and may improve estimates of the true burden of salmonellosis in Belgium.

Investigating the drivers of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 hospital incidence-Belgium as a study case.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting nations globally, but with an impact exhibiting significant spatial and temporal variation at the sub-national level. Identifying and disentangling the drivers of resulting hospitalisation incidence at the local scale is key to predict, mitigate and manage epidemic surges, but also to develop targeted measures. However, this type of analysis is often not possible because of the lack of spatially-explicit health data and spatial uncertainties associated with infection. METHODS: To overcome these limitations, we propose an analytical framework to investigate potential drivers of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 hospitalisation incidence when data are only available at the hospital level. Specifically, the approach is based on the delimitation of hospital catchment areas, which allows analysing associations between hospitalisation incidence and spatial or temporal covariates. We illustrate and apply our analytical framework to Belgium, a country heavily impacted by two COVID-19 epidemic waves in 2020, both in terms of mortality and hospitalisation incidence. RESULTS: Our spatial analyses reveal an association between the hospitalisation incidence and the local density of nursing home residents, which confirms the important impact of COVID-19 in elderly communities of Belgium. Our temporal analyses further indicate a pronounced seasonality in hospitalisation incidence associated with the seasonality of weather variables. Taking advantage of these associations, we discuss the feasibility of predictive models based on machine learning to predict future hospitalisation incidence. CONCLUSION: Our reproducible analytical workflow allows performing spatially-explicit analyses of data aggregated at the hospital level and can be used to explore potential drivers and dynamic of COVID-19 hospitalisation incidence at regional or national scales.