Weights and importance in composite indicators: Closing the gap.

Composite indicators are very popular tools for assessing and ranking countries and institutions in terms of environmental performance, sustainability, and other complex concepts that are not directly measurable. Because of the stakes that come with the media attention of these tools, a word of caution is warranted. One common misconception relates to the effect of the weights assigned to indicators during the aggregation process. This work presents a novel series of tools that allow developers and users of composite indicators to explore effects of these weights. First, the importance of each indicator to the composite is measured by the nonlinear Pearson correlation ratio, estimated by Bayesian Gaussian processes. Second, the effect of each indicator is isolated from that of other indicators using regression analysis, and examined in detail. Finally, an optimisation procedure is proposed which allows weights to be fitted to agree with pre-specified values of importance. These three tools together give developers considerable insight into the effects of weights and suggest possibilities for refining and simplifying the aggregation. The added value of these tools are shown on three case studies: the Resource Governance Index, the Good Country Index, and the Water Retention Index.

Systematic analytical characterization of new psychoactive substances: A case study.

New psychoactive substances (NPS) are synthesized compounds that are not usually covered by European and/or international laws. With a slight alteration in the chemical structure of existing illegal substances registered in the European Union (EU), these NPS circumvent existing controls and are thus referred to as "legal highs". They are becoming increasingly available and can easily be purchased through both the internet and other means (smart shops). Thus, it is essential that the identification of NPS keeps up with this rapidly evolving market. In this case study, the Belgian Customs authorities apprehended a parcel, originating from China, containing two samples, declared as being "white pigments". For routine identification, the Belgian Customs Laboratory first analysed both samples by gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry and Fourier-Transform Infrared spectroscopy. The information obtained by these techniques is essential and can give an indication of the chemical structure of an unknown substance but not the complete identification of its structure. To bridge this gap, scientific and technical support is ensured by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) to the European Commission Directorate General for Taxation and Customs Unions (DG TAXUD) and the Customs Laboratory European Network (CLEN) through an Administrative Arrangement for fast recognition of NPS and identification of unknown chemicals. The samples were sent to the JRC for a complete characterization using advanced techniques and chemoinformatic tools. The aim of this study was also to encourage the development of a science-based policy driven approach on NPS. These samples were fully characterized and identified as 5F-AMB and PX-3 using (1)H and (13)C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), high-resolution tandem mass-spectrometry (HR-MS/MS) and Raman spectroscopy. A chemoinformatic platform was used to manage, unify analytical data from multiple techniques and instruments, and combine it with chemical and structural information.

More green infrastructure is required to maintain ecosystem services under current trends in land-use change in Europe.

Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.

Impact of shale gas development on water resources: a case study in northern poland.

Shale gas is currently being explored in Europe as an alternative energy source to conventional oil and gas. There is, however, increasing concern about the potential environmental impacts of shale gas extraction by hydraulic fracturing (fracking). In this study, we focussed on the potential impacts on regional water resources within the Baltic Basin in Poland, both in terms of quantity and quality. The future development of the shale play was modeled for the time period 2015-2030 using the LUISA modeling framework. We formulated two scenarios which took into account the large range in technology and resource requirements, as well as two additional scenarios based on the current legislation and the potential restrictions which could be put in place. According to these scenarios, between 0.03 and 0.86% of the total water withdrawals for all sectors could be attributed to shale gas exploitation within the study area. A screening-level assessment of the potential impact of the chemicals commonly used in fracking was carried out and showed that due to their wide range of physicochemical properties, these chemicals may pose additional pressure on freshwater ecosystems. The legislation put in place also influenced the resulting environmental impacts of shale gas extraction. Especially important are the protection of vulnerable ground and surface water resources and the promotion of more water-efficient technologies.