A landscape of overlapping risks for wolf-human conflict in Wisconsin, USA.

Managing risk requires an adequate understanding of risk-factors that influence the likelihood of a particular event occurring in time and space. Risk maps can be valuable tools for natural resource managers, allowing them to better understand spatial characteristics of risk. Risk maps can also support risk-avoidance efforts by identifying which areas are relatively riskier than others. However, risks, such as human-carnivore conflict, can be diverse, multi-faceted, and overlapping in space. Yet, efforts to describe risk typically focus on only one aspect of risk. We examined wolf complaints investigated in Wisconsin, USA for the period of 1999-2011. We described the spatial patterns of four types of wolf-human conflict: livestock depredation, depredation on hunting hounds, depredation on non-hound dogs, and human health and safety concerns (HHSC). Using predictive landscape models and discriminant functions analysis, we visualized the landscape of risk as a continuous surface of overlapping risks. Each type of conflict had its own unique landscape signature; however, the probability of any type of conflict increased closer to the center of wolf pack territories and with increased forest cover. Hunting hound depredations tended to occur in areas considered to be highly suitable wolf habitat, while livestock depredations occurred more regularly in marginal wolf habitat. HHSC and non-hound dog depredations were less predictable spatially but tended to occur in areas with low housing density adjacent to large wildland areas. Similar to other research evaluating the risk of human-carnivore conflict, our data suggests that human-carnivore conflict is most likely to occur where humans or human property and large carnivores co-occur. However, identifying areas of co-occurrence is only marginally valuable from a conservation standpoint and could be described using spatially-explicit human and carnivore data without complex analytical approaches. These results challenge our traditional understanding of risk and the standard approach used in describing risk. We suggest that a more comprehensive understanding of the risk of human-carnivore conflict can be achieved by examining the spatial and non-spatial factors influencing risk within areas of co-occurrence and by describing the landscape of risk as a continuous surface of multiple overlapping risks.

Projecting Soil Organic Carbon Distribution in Central Chile under Future Climate Scenarios.

Soil organic C (SOC) is the largest terrestrial C pool, and it influences diverse soil properties and processes in a landscape. At global scales, SOC is related to climate; as climate changes, we expect that SOC will change at broad scales as well, but how SOC will respond to climate change in diverse environments is complex and highly uncertain. To evaluate the potential impact of predicted changes in temperature and precipitation across central Chile, we first estimated current SOC content using pedon descriptions and environmental variables (temperature, rainfall, land use, topography, soil types, and geology) as predictors. A random forest statistical model was used to predict SOC content by pedon data. Maps were created for six standard depths of the GlobalSoilMap project. Results showed mean SOC of 54 g kg at a depth interval of 0 to 5 cm, 51 g kg at 5 to 15 cm, 42 g kg at 15 to 30 cm, 29 g kg at 30 to 60 cm, 17 g kg at 60 to 100 cm, and 11 g kg at 100 to 200 cm. Model validation, withholding 25% of pedons, showed values of 0.70, 0.73, 0.75, 0.65, 0.56, and 0.29 for six depths, respectively. Two future temperature and precipitation for climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the NASA GISS-E2-R models, were considered in predicting SOC in 2050 and 2080. We found that central Chile would experience a loss of SOC in the depth range of 0 to 30 cm, averaging 9.7% for RCP4.5 and 12.9% for the RCP8.5 scenarios by the year 2050, with additional decreases of 8% in the RCP4.5 scenario and 16.5% under RCP8.5 by 2080.

GPS suggests low physical activity in urban Hispanic school children: a proof of concept study.

BACKGROUND: Urban environments can increase risk for development of obesity, insulin resistance (IR), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by limiting physical activity. This study examined, in a cohort of urban Hispanic youth, the relationship between daily physical activity (PA) measured by GPS, insulin resistance and cardiovascular fitness. METHODS: Hispanic middle school children (n = 141) were assessed for body mass index (BMI), IR (homeostasis model [HOMA-IR]), cardiovascular fitness (progressive aerobic cardiovascular endurance run [PACER]). PA was measured (GPS-PA) and energy expenditure estimated (GPS-EE) utilizing a global positioning mapping device worn for up to 7 days. RESULTS: Students (mean age 12.7 ± 1.2 years, 52% female) spent 98% of waking time in sedentary activities, 1.7% in moderate intensity PA, and 0.3% in vigorous intensity. GPS analysis revealed extremely low amounts of physical movement during waking hours. The degree of low PA confounded correlation analysis with PACER or HOMA-IR. CONCLUSIONS: Levels of moderate and vigorous intensity PA, measured by GPS, were extremely low in these urban Hispanic youth, possibly contributing to high rates of obesity and IR. Physical movement patterns suggest barriers to PA in play options near home, transportation to school, and in school recess time. GPS technology can objectively and accurately evaluate initiatives designed to reduce obesity and its morbidities by increasing PA.

Ecosystem-service tradeoffs associated with switching from annual to perennial energy crops in riparian zones of the US Midwest.

Integration of energy crops into agricultural landscapes could promote sustainability if they are placed in ways that foster multiple ecosystem services and mitigate ecosystem disservices from existing crops. We conducted a modeling study to investigate how replacing annual energy crops with perennial energy crops along Wisconsin waterways could affect a variety of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. We found that a switch from continuous corn production to perennial-grass production decreased annual income provisioning by 75%, although it increased annual energy provisioning by 33%, decreased annual phosphorous loading to surface water by 29%, increased below-ground carbon sequestration by 30%, decreased annual nitrous oxide emissions by 84%, increased an index of pollinator abundance by an average of 11%, and increased an index of biocontrol potential by an average of 6%. We expressed the tradeoffs between income provisioning and other ecosystem services as benefit-cost ratios. Benefit-cost ratios averaged 12.06 GJ of additional net energy, 0.84 kg of avoided phosphorus pollution, 18.97 Mg of sequestered carbon, and 1.99 kg of avoided nitrous oxide emissions for every $1,000 reduction in income. These ratios varied spatially, from 2- to 70-fold depending on the ecosystem service. Benefit-cost ratios for different ecosystem services were generally correlated within watersheds, suggesting the presence of hotspots--watersheds where increases in multiple ecosystem services would come at lower-than-average opportunity costs. When assessing the monetary value of ecosystem services relative to existing conservation programs and environmental markets, the overall value of enhanced services associated with adoption of perennial energy crops was far lower than the opportunity cost. However, when we monitized services using estimates for the social costs of pollution, the value of enhanced services far exceeded the opportunity cost. This disparity between recoverable costs and social value represents a fundamental challenge to expansion of perennial energy crops and sustainable agricultural landscapes.