Modelling grass pollen levels in Belgium.

Biogenic aerosols such as airborne grass pollen affect the public health badly by putting additional distress on people already suffering from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. In Belgium, daily airborne pollen concentrations are monitored offline at a few sites only, hampering the timely coverage of the country and short-term forecasts. Here we apply the Chemistry Transport Model SILAM to the Belgian territory to model the spatio-temporal airborne grass pollen levels near the surface based on bottom-up inventories of grass pollen emissions updated with the Copernicus land monitoring Service grassland map of 2015. Transport of aerosols in SILAM is driven by ECMWF ERA5 meteorological data. The emitted grass pollen amounts in SILAM are computed by the multiplication of the grass pollen source map with the release rate determined by the seasonal shape production curve during the grass flowering period. The onset and offset of this period follow a location-dependent prescribed calendar days. Here we optimize the grass pollen seasonal start and end in SILAM by comparing a 2008-2018 time series of daily airborne grass pollen concentrations from the Belgian aerobiological surveillance network with the simulations. The effect of the spatial distribution of grass pollen sources is quantified by constructing pollen source-receptor relations using model simulations with varying grass pollen emissions in five areas of the model domain as input. Up to 33% of the airborne grass pollen in one area was transport from others areas inside Belgium. Adjusting the start and end of the grass pollen season improved the model performance substantially by almost doubling the correlation with local observations. By introducing the temporal scaling of the inter-seasonal pollen amounts in the model, an additional R2 increase up to 22% was obtained. Further improvements can be made by including more detailed grass pollen sources and more dynamic start and end dates of the pollen season.

Long-Term Pollen Monitoring in the Benelux: Evaluation of Allergenic Pollen Levels and Temporal Variations of Pollen Seasons.

Airborne pollen is a major cause of allergic rhinitis, affecting between 10 and 30% of the population in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg (Benelux). Allergenic pollen is produced by wind pollinating plants and released in relatively low to massive amounts. Current climate changes, in combination with increasing urbanization, are likely to affect the presence of airborne allergenic pollen with respect to exposure intensity, timing as well as duration. Detailed analysis of long-term temporal trends at supranational scale may provide more comprehensive insight into these phenomena. To this end, the Spearman correlation was used to statistically compare the temporal trends in airborne pollen concentration monitored at the aerobiological stations which gathered the longest time-series (30-44 years) in the Benelux with a focus on the allergenic pollen taxa: Alnus, Corylus, Betula, Fraxinus, Quercus, Platanus, Poaceae, and Artemisia. Most arboreal species showed an overall trend toward an increase in the annual pollen integral and peak values and an overall trend toward an earlier start and end of the pollen season, which for Betula resulted in a significant decrease in season length. For the herbaceous species (Poaceae and Artemisia), the annual pollen integral and peak values showed a decreasing trend. The season timing of Poaceae showed a trend toward earlier starts and longer seasons in all locations. In all, these results show that temporal variations in pollen levels almost always follow a common trend in the Benelux, suggesting a similar force of climate change-driven factors, especially for Betula where a clear positive correlation was found between changes in temperature and pollen release over time. However, some trends were more local-specific indicating the influence of other environmental factors, e.g., the increasing urbanization in the surroundings of these monitoring locations. The dynamics in the observed trends can impact allergic patients by increasing the severity of symptoms, upsetting the habit of timing of the season, complicating diagnosis due to overlapping pollen seasons and the emergence of new symptoms due allergens that were weak at first.

Top-Down NOX Emissions of European Cities Based on the Downwind Plume of Modelled and Space-Borne Tropospheric NO2 Columns.

Top-down estimates of surface NOX emissions were derived for 23 European cities based on the downwind plume decay of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the LOTOS-EUROS (Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Ozone Simulation) chemistry transport model (CTM) and from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite retrievals, averaged for the summertime period (April⁻September) during 2013. Here we show that the top-down NOX emissions derived from LOTOS-EUROS for European urban areas agree well with the bottom-up NOX emissions from the MACC-III inventory data (R² = 0.88) driving the CTM demonstrating the potential of this method. OMI top-down NOX emissions over the 23 European cities are generally lower compared with the MACC-III emissions and their correlation is slightly lower (R² = 0.79). The uncertainty on the derived NO2 lifetimes and NOX emissions are on average ~55% for OMI and ~63% for LOTOS-EUROS data. The downwind NO2 plume method applied on both LOTOS-EUROS and OMI tropospheric NO2 columns allows to estimate NOX emissions from urban areas, demonstrating that this is a useful method for real-time updates of urban NOX emissions with reasonable accuracy.

Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe.

The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ(2) tests, p < 10(-6)). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole's population.

Using the gravity model to estimate the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens' vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

The properties of terrestrial laser system intensity for measuring leaf geometries: a case study with Conference Pear trees (Pyrus communis).

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology can be a valuable tool for describing and quantifying vegetation structure. However, because of their size, extraction of leaf geometries remains complicated. In this study, the intensity data produced by the Terrestrial Laser System (TLS) FARO LS880 is corrected for the distance effect and its relationship with the angle of incidence between the laser beam and the surface of the leaf of a Conference Pear tree (Pyrus commmunis) is established. The results demonstrate that with only intensity, this relationship has a potential for determining the angle of incidence with the leaves surface with a precision of ±5° for an angle of incidence smaller than 60°, whereas it is more variable for an angle of incidence larger than 60°. It appears that TLS beam footprint, leaf curvatures and leaf wrinkles have an impact on the relationship between intensity and angle of incidence, though, this analysis shows that the intensity of scanned leaves has a potential to eliminate ghost points and to improve their meshing.

Satellite derived forest phenology and its relation with nephropathia epidemica in Belgium.

The connection between nephropathia epidemica (NE) and vegetation dynamics has been emphasized in recent studies. Changing climate has been suggested as a triggering factor of recently observed epidemiologic peaks in reported NE cases. We have investigated whether there is a connection between the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium and specific trends in remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests. The analysis of time series of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index revealed that changes in forest phenology, considered in literature as an effect of climate change, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission.

Webcams for bird detection and monitoring: a demonstration study.

Better insights into bird migration can be a tool for assessing the spread of avian borne infections or ecological/climatologic issues reflected in deviating migration patterns. This paper evaluates whether low budget permanent cameras such as webcams can offer a valuable contribution to the reporting of migratory birds. An experimental design was set up to study the detection capability using objects of different size, color and velocity. The results of the experiment revealed the minimum size, maximum velocity and contrast of the objects required for detection by a standard webcam. Furthermore, a modular processing scheme was proposed to track and follow migratory birds in webcam recordings. Techniques such as motion detection by background subtraction, stereo vision and lens distortion were combined to form the foundation of the bird tracking algorithm. Additional research to integrate webcam networks, however, is needed and future research should enforce the potential of the processing scheme by exploring and testing alternatives of each individual module or processing step.

Relating increasing hantavirus incidences to the changing climate: the mast connection.

BACKGROUND: Nephropathia epidemica (NE), an emerging rodent-borne viral disease, has become the most important cause of infectious acute renal failure in Belgium, with sharp increases in incidence occurring for more than a decade. Bank voles are the rodent reservoir of the responsible hantavirus and are known to display cyclic population peaks. We tried to relate these peaks to the cyclic NE outbreaks observed since 1993. Our hypothesis was that the ecological causal connection was the staple food source for voles, being seeds of deciduous broad-leaf trees, commonly called "mast". We also examined whether past temperature and precipitation preceding "mast years" were statistically linked to these NE outbreaks. RESULTS: Since 1993, each NE peak is immediately preceded by a mast year, resulting in significantly higher NE case numbers during these peaks (Spearman R = -0.82; P = 0.034). NE peaks are significantly related to warmer autumns the year before (R = 0.51; P < 0.001), hotter summers two years before (R = 0.32; P < 0.001), but also to colder (R = -0.25; P < 0.01) and more moist summers (R = 0.39; P < 0.001) three years before. Summer correlations were even more pronounced, when only July was singled out as the most representative summer month. CONCLUSION: NE peaks in year 0 are induced by abundant mast formation in year-1, facilitating bank vole survival during winter, thus putting the local human population at risk from the spring onwards of year 0. This bank vole survival is further promoted by higher autumn temperatures in year-1, whereas mast formation itself is primed by higher summer temperatures in year-2. Both summer and autumn temperatures have been rising to significantly higher levels during recent years, explaining the virtually continuous epidemic state since 2005 of a zoonosis, considered rare until recently. Moreover, in 2007 a NE peak and an abundant mast formation occurred for the first time within the same year, thus forecasting yet another record NE incidence for 2008. We therefore predict that with the anticipated climate changes due to global warming, NE might become a highly endemic disease in Belgium and surrounding countries.

Assessment of Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture Content Across Different Scales of Observation.

The proper assessment of evapotranspiration and soil moisture content arefundamental in food security research, land management, pollution detection, nutrient flows,(wild-) fire detection, (desert) locust, carbon balance as well as hydrological modelling; etc.This paper takes an extensive, though not exhaustive sample of international scientificliterature to discuss different approaches to estimate land surface and ecosystem relatedevapotranspiration and soil moisture content. This review presents:(i) a summary of the generally accepted cohesion theory of plant water uptake andtransport including a shortlist of meteorological and plant factors influencing planttranspiration;(ii) a summary on evapotranspiration assessment at different scales of observation (sapflow,porometer, lysimeter, field and catchment water balance, Bowen ratio,scintillometer, eddy correlation, Penman-Monteith and related approaches);(iii) a summary on data assimilation schemes conceived to estimate evapotranspirationusing optical and thermal remote sensing; and(iv) for soil moisture content, a summary on soil moisture retrieval techniques atdifferent spatial and temporal scales is presented.Concluding remarks on the best available approaches to assess evapotranspiration and soilmoisture content with and emphasis on remote sensing data assimilation, are provided.

A Compact Laboratory Spectro-Goniometer (CLabSpeG) to Assess the BRDF of Materials. Presentation, Calibration and Implementation on Fagus sylvatica L. Leaves.

The design and calibration of a new hyperspectral Compact Laboratory Spectro-Goniometer (CLabSpeG) is presented. CLabSpeG effectively measures the bidirectionalreflectance Factor (BRF) of a sample, using a halogen light source and an AnalyticalSpectral Devices (ASD) spectroradiometer. The apparatus collects 4356 reflectance datareadings covering the spectrum from 350 nm to 2500 nm by independent positioning of thesensor, sample holder, and light source. It has an azimuth and zenith resolution of 30 and15 degrees, respectively. CLabSpeG is used to collect BRF data and extract BidirectionalReflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) data of non-isotropic vegetation elements suchas bark, soil, and leaves. Accurate calibration has ensured robust geometric accuracy of theapparatus, correction for the conicality of the light source, while sufficient radiometricstability and repeatability between measurements are obtained. The bidirectionalreflectance data collection is automated and remotely controlled and takes approximatelytwo and half hours for a BRF measurement cycle over a full hemisphere with 125 cmradius and 2.4 minutes for a single BRF acquisition. A specific protocol for vegetative leafcollection and measurement was established in order to investigate the possibility to extractBRDF values from Fagus sylvatica L. leaves under laboratory conditions. Drying leafeffects induce a reflectance change during the BRF measurements due to the laboratorySensors 2007, 7 1847 illumination source. Therefore, the full hemisphere could not be covered with one leaf. Instead 12 BRF measurements per leaf were acquired covering all azimuth positions for a single light source zenith position. Data are collected in radiance format and reflectance is calculated by dividing the leaf cycle measurement with a radiance cycle of a Spectralon reference panel, multiplied by a Spectralon reflectance correction factor and a factor to correct for the conical effect of the light source. BRF results of measured leaves are presented.