Recent land-use and land-cover changes and its driving factors in a fire-prone area of southwestern Turkey.

During the last decades, contrasted trends in forest fires among countries around the Mediterranean basin have been observed. In the northern/western countries, Land Use-Land Cover (LULC) changes led to more hazardous landscapes, with consequent increases in fires. This contrasted with fire trends in southern/eastern countries. The recent incidence of large fires in some of the latter prompted the question of whether they are now following the path of their neighbors decades earlier. In this study, we investigated recent LULC changes in southwestern Turkey, focusing on those that could affect fire, and the factors driving them. To this end, LULC maps at different time steps (1975, 1990, 2000 and 2010) were obtained from Landsat images, together with relevant socioeconomic data. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were applied to assess the effects of socioeconomic and geophysical factors on the dominant LULC changes over time. Over the whole period studied, the most important LULC changes were deforestation followed by afforestation. Deforestation was positively related to high livestock density and proximity to villages and increased forest interfaces with other LULC types. We found no evidence that LULC changes were making the landscape more hazardous as there was a net decrease in fuels biomass and the landscape became more fragmented over time. However, despite the area being heavily used and relatively fragmented, large fires can occur driven by severe weather.

Landscape--wildfire interactions in southern Europe: implications for landscape management.

Every year approximately half a million hectares of land are burned by wildfires in southern Europe, causing large ecological and socio-economic impacts. Climate and land use changes in the last decades have increased fire risk and danger. In this paper we review the available scientific knowledge on the relationships between landscape and wildfires in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on its application for defining landscape management guidelines and policies that could be adopted in order to promote landscapes with lower fire hazard. The main findings are that (1) socio-economic drivers have favoured land cover changes contributing to increasing fire hazard in the last decades, (2) large wildfires are becoming more frequent, (3) increased fire frequency is promoting homogeneous landscapes covered by fire-prone shrublands; (4) landscape planning to reduce fuel loads may be successful only if fire weather conditions are not extreme. The challenges to address these problems and the policy and landscape management responses that should be adopted are discussed, along with major knowledge gaps.

Statistical performance and information content of time lag analysis and redundancy analysis in time series modeling.

Time lag analysis (TLA) is a distance-based approach used to study temporal dynamics of ecological communities by measuring community dissimilarity over increasing time lags. Despite its increased use in recent years, its performance in comparison with other more direct methods (i.e., canonical ordination) has not been evaluated. This study fills this gap using extensive simulations and real data sets from experimental temporary ponds (true zooplankton communities) and landscape studies (landscape categories as pseudo-communities) that differ in community structure and anthropogenic stress history. Modeling time with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices (PCNM) approach, the canonical ordination technique (redundancy analysis; RDA) consistently outperformed the other statistical tests (i.e., TLAs, Mantel test, and RDA based on linear time trends) using all real data. In addition, the RDA-PCNM revealed different patterns of temporal change, and the strength of each individual time pattern, in terms of adjusted variance explained, could be evaluated, It also identified species contributions to these patterns of temporal change. This additional information is not provided by distance-based methods. The simulation study revealed better Type I error properties of the canonical ordination techniques compared with the distance-based approaches when no deterministic component of change was imposed on the communities. The simulation also revealed that strong emphasis on uniform deterministic change and low variability at other temporal scales is needed to result in decreased statistical power of the RDA-PCNM approach relative to the other methods. Based on the statistical performance of and information content provided by RDA-PCNM models, this technique serves ecologists as a powerful tool for modeling temporal change of ecological (pseudo-) communities.