Family Life Courses, Uncertain Futures, and the Changing World of Work: State-of-the-Art and Prospects.

Labour markets in post-industrial countries have been undergoing tremendous transformations in the last two decades, substantially changing the conditions in which young adults take family decisions and raise children. Whilst these changes create new opportunities, they also generate risks which potentially foster uncertain futures and affect individuals' opportunities to earn income, provide care for family members, and make long-term commitments. This Special Issue aims to stimulate the debate on the effects of rapid labour market transformations and growing uncertainty on families in contemporary wealthiest countries. Its articles suggest that economic uncertainty, the threat of unemployment or precarious employment, and financial difficulties lead to fertility postponement and increase the risk of union disruption. These effects intensify when labour market deregulation goes in tandem with labour market dualization and become more pronounced during periods of economic hardship, such as economic recessions or the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the effects of economic activity on family-related behaviours have become less gendered as women increasingly gain economic independence. Finally, it appears that highly educated workers and members of the upper social classes face increasingly better conditions for realising their fertility intentions than their lower-educated counterparts and those of the lower social classes. In this introductory article, we review the theoretical premises and the empirical evidence to provide a comprehensive background on what labour force participation and its conditions imply for family life courses. We then introduce the articles collected in this Special Issue and conclude with a discussion on prospects for future research.

Employment Protection Legislation, Labour Market Dualism, and Fertility in Europe.

Theoretically, whether a more loosely regulated labour market inhibits or fosters fertility in a society is ambiguous. Empirically, the few studies analysing the relationship between the strictness of employment protection legislation-the norms and procedures regulating labour markets' hiring and firing processes-and fertility have found mixed evidence. This paper reconciles the ambivalent conclusions of previous studies by analysing the impact of employment protection legislation and labour market dualism on total fertility across 19 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Our results indicate that an increase in employment protection for regular workers positively affects total fertility. Nonetheless, an increasing gap between the regulation of regular and temporary employment-that is, labour market dualism-negatively impacts total fertility. These effects, of small-to-moderate intensity, are relatively homogeneous across age groups and geographical areas and are especially pronounced among the lower educated. We conclude that labour market dualism, rather than a "rigid" employment protection legislation, discourages fertility.

Fertility and Media Narratives of the Economy: Evidence From Italian News Coverage.

We argue that media-conveyed economic narratives are crucial for understanding contemporary fertility dynamics, net of objective economic constraints. Individuals use these narratives to project themselves into an actionable imagined future and make decisions that may be relatively independent from their actual economic situation. We test this hypothesis for Italy by combining individual-level data from the 2009 and 2016 releases of the nationally representative Family and Social Subjects Survey with Media Tenor data on the coverage of the economy in the evening newscast of Italian TV's most-viewed channel (Rai 1). Our findings reveal that both the incidence and tone of news reports on the state of the economy are associated with fertility behavior. An increase in the number of negative economic news items is negatively associated with fertility, whereas an increase in positive items is positively correlated with fertility. Interestingly, when positive news items outnumber negative ones, an increase in the share of economic reports is positively associated with fertility. These associations are statistically significant and substantially relevant, net of traditional individual and contextual socioeconomic fertility correlates. Overall, our findings bolster the claim that media-conveyed narratives of the economy influence fertility behaviors.

Familydemic Cross Country and Gender Dataset on work and family outcomes during COVID-19 pandemic.

Here we present the Familydemic Cross Country and Gender Dataset (FCCGD), which offers cross country and gender comparative data on work and family outcomes among parents of dependent children, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. It covers six countries from two continents representing diverse welfare regimes as well as distinct policy reactions to the pandemic outbreak. The FCCGD was created using the first wave of a web-based international survey (Familydemic) carried out between June and September 2021, on large samples of parents (aged 20-59) living with at least one child under 12 in Canada, Germany, Italy, Poland, Sweden, and the US. While individual datasets are not available due to country-level restriction policies, the presented database allows for cross-country comparison of a wide range of employment outcomes and work arrangements, the division of diverse tasks of unpaid labour (housework and childcare) in couples, experiences with childcare and school closures due to the pandemic and subjective assessments of changes to work-life balance, career prospects and the financial situation of families (234 variables).

Childbearing across partnerships in Italy: Prevalence, demographic correlates, and social gradient.

Studies of childbearing across partnerships-having children with more than one partner-have generally focused on countries with relatively high separation rates. We complement this previous research with analyses for Italy using nationally representative, retrospective data and event-history techniques. This study offers three key findings. First, we detected a non-negligible share of childbearing across partnerships, although at substantially lower levels relative to other wealthy countries (5 per cent of parents aged 25-54 with at least two children). Second, multivariate analyses revealed an impressive similarity to the demographic correlates found elsewhere. Finally, we showed that childbearing across partnerships was initiated by the 'social vanguard' of new family behaviours but then diffused among the least well-off. Overall, this paper adds to the growing literature on childbearing across partnerships by showing the phenomenon to be demographically and sociologically relevant, even in countries with strong family ties and a limited diffusion of union dissolution.

The agency of fertility plans.

Fertility plans are a prominent area for agency research, and are a clear example of a misalignment between resources and agency capacity. We relied both on the idea of conversion factors of the Capability Approach and the pragmatist tradition of temporal-oriented agency to propose a framework for the study of fertility agency as the conversion process of resources into plans and behavior. We outlined said framework by using a unique dataset on fertility plans composed of open and closed questions from an Italian sample. Economic factors and imaginaries related to children and family represented the vast majority of (hindering and enabling) conversion factors. The notion of conversion factors is crucial for disentangling the network of heterogeneous elements involved in fertility agency: it allows focus to be shifted from structural factors related to social position and psychological characteristics to more situated elements that enable agency capacity.

Life-Course Trajectories of Childless Women: Country-Specific or Universal?

While existing research has documented complexities in biographies of childless women, few studies to date have systematically examined the life-course pathways of the childless from a comparative, cross-country perspective. In this paper, we analyse biographies of childless women in four countries-Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United States-in order to investigate whether pathways into childlessness are country-specific or commonly shared across institutional, cultural, and geographical settings. Partnership, education, and employment histories are examined using sequence analysis with dynamic Hamming distance and cluster analysis. Discrepancy analysis indicates a country-effect in women's biographies although life-course patterns identified in each country share similarities. Overall, seven life-course trajectories have been identified, with the most numerous cluster comprising single, working women who completed their education at a relatively young age. The results highlight a marked variation in the life-courses of childless women. Put together, these findings provide descriptive evidence for both country-specificity and cross-country similarity in the pathways to childlessness. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09624-5.

Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

By adopting a dyadic extension of the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991), this study examined whether perceived economic uncertainty affects fertility intentions. Three-hundred thirty one heterosexual couples living in Italy participated in a randomized between-group experimental study, in which we manipulated perceived economic uncertainty (low vs. high vs. control). The participants subsequently completed a questionnaire measuring their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and fertility intentions. We employed Structural Equation Modelling in estimating the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model. The model showed a good fit to the data. Women's attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control were influenced by the high economic uncertain scenario, whereas among men these variables were affected only by the positive economic scenario. Attitudes and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of fertility intentions for both sexes. Significant partner effects were observed as well. These findings suggest that fertility plans should be examined by adopting a dyadic perspective, as individuals' intentions are affected not only by their own beliefs, but also by those of their partners.

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment.

In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future-i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures-impact individuals' decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.

Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience?

The role of employment uncertainty as a fertility driver has previously been studied with a limited set of constructs, leading to inconclusive results. We address this oversight by considering perceived stability of employment and perceived resilience to potential job loss as two key dimensions of employment uncertainty in relation to fertility decision-making. The present study relies on the 2017 Italian Trustlab survey and its employment uncertainty module. We find that perception of resilience to job loss is a powerful predictor of fertility intentions, whereas perception of employment stability has only a limited impact. The observed relationship between resilience and fertility intentions is robust to the inclusion of person-specific risk attitude and does not depend on the unemployment rate or the share of fixed-term contracts in the area of residence. We conclude that the notion of employment uncertainty includes distinct expectations towards the future, which should be considered separately to understand fertility decision-making.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406.

Higher parental socioeconomic status accelerates sexual debut: Evidence from university students in Italy.

In this paper we analyze how the timing and type (protected or unprotected) of sexual debut are influenced by parental socioeconomic status (SES). We argue that depending on whether a "parental control" or a "cultural openness" mechanism prevails, one could find a postponing or an anticipating effect of higher parental SES on children's timing of sexual debut. By applying event-history techniques to unique data from the two releases of the Sexual and Emotional Life of Youths survey (2000 and 2017), we found a clear accelerating effect of higher parental SES-parental education and father's social class-on the sexual debut of Italian university students. The effect is partly mediated by family characteristics related to the cultural openness mechanism, such as low parental religiosity, greater communication about sex, and parental permissiveness; on the contrary, we only found weak support for the parental control explanation. Higher parental education is associated with a higher likelihood of protected first sexual intercourse-and especially of condom use-even if more precocious. Our results dispute the North American- and Anglo-Saxon-driven finding that high-SES children postpone their sexual debut.

The Changing Association Between Homeownership and the Transition to Parenthood.

The literature suggests a positive link between homeownership and the transition to parenthood. However, in recent decades, couples' preference for becoming homeowners before having their first child has been undermined by rising housing unaffordability and housing uncertainty. An archetypal example is Britain, where homeownership rates among young adults have fallen substantially as a result of low wages, unemployment, reductions in the availability of mortgage credit, and rising house prices. This situation has produced a housing crisis. Using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008) and the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (2009-2016), we apply multilevel, discrete-time event-history techniques to a sample of women aged 18-42. We investigate whether and how the link between homeownership and entering parenthood has changed in Britain in recent decades. Our findings reveal that in comparison with the 1990s, the likelihood of becoming a parent has declined among homeowners, whereas childbearing rates among private renters have remained stable. Thus, owner-occupiers and private renters have become more similar in terms of their likelihood of entering parenthood. Overall, our findings question the classical micro-level assumption of a positive link between homeownership and transition to parenthood, at least among Britain's "Generation Rent." These findings are subsequently interpreted in terms of increased housing uncertainty.

Economic complexity and fertility: insights from a low fertility country.

This paper analyzes the relationship between a new indicator of economic context, economic complexity (EC), and fertility change in Italian provinces between 2006 and 2015. We hypothesize that the level of EC is associated with fertility as it reflects a territory's capacity to innovate, grow and create job opportunities. The results illustrate a clear positive association between EC and fertility change across Italian provinces for the period considered, net of traditional fertility predictors. Those areas that stand at the frontiers of EC are also more likely to dominate and adapt to the negative consequences of globalization.

Employment Instability and Fertility in Europe: A Meta-Analysis.

The relationship between employment instability and fertility is a major topic in demographic research, with a proliferation of published papers on this matter, especially since the Great Recession. Employment instability, which most often manifests in unemployment or time-limited employment, is usually deemed to have a negative effect on fertility, although different fertility reactions are hypothesized by sociological theories, and micro-level evidence is fragmented and contradictory. We used meta-analytic techniques to synthesize European research findings, offer general conclusions about the effects of employment instability on fertility (in terms of direction and size), and rank different sources of employment instability. Our results suggest that employment instability has a nonnegligible negative effect on fertility. Men's unemployment is more detrimental for fertility than men's time-limited employment; conversely, a woman having a fixed-term contract is least likely to have a child. Next, the negative effect of employment instability on fertility has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries, where social protection for families and the unemployed is least generous. Finally, meta-regression estimates demonstrate that failing to account for income and partner characteristics leads to an overestimation of the negative effect of employment instability on fertility. We advance the role of these two factors as potential mechanisms by which employment instability affects fertility. Overall, this meta-analysis provides the empirical foundation for new studies on the topic.

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis.

This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which allows for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change while controlling for variation in economic conditions across regions and countries. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase; this relationship was significant at different reproductive ages. Deteriorating economic conditions were associated with a stronger decline in fertility during the economic recession as compared with the pre-recession period. This evidence suggests the salience of factors such as broader perception of uncertainty that we could not capture in our models and which rose to prominence during the Great Recession. Furthermore, strongest fertility declines were observed in Southern Europe, Ireland and parts of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. countries and regions where labour market conditions deteriorated most during the recession period. In Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the recession indicators.

A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework.

The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere "statistical shadow of the past", and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their "narrative of the future" - imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the "shared narratives" produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.

The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement.

This paper aims to advance our understanding of entry into employment with uncertain conditions in Italy and its causal impact on the onset of the fertility process. We adopt the potential outcome approach to causal inference so as to quantify the net effect of having a first job with a temporary or a permanent contract on the propensity to have a first child within the first five years of employment. The analysis is based on retrospective data from the nationally representative 2009 Family and Social Subjects survey. Our results suggest that 7% of potential first-birth postponement among women and 5% of potential postponement among men is attributable to jobs with uncertain conditions. These individuals would have had a first child if they had had a permanent job. For women, potential postponement is elevated among those with higher education (reaching 16%), while for men potential postponement is especially visible among those with low and medium education. With this paper we quantify a non-negligible negative effect for early exposure to labour market uncertainties on potential first-birth postponement in Italy.

Is the effect of job uncertainty on fertility intentions channeled by subjective well-being?

This article combines two apparently distinct strands of contemporary research on fertility: the literature on economic uncertainty and fertility; and the literature on subjective well-being and fertility. We advance the hypothesis that the impact of jobs with uncertain conditions on fertility intentions is channeled by an individual's level of subjective well-being, which captures also unmeasured amenities of the job, including prestige, work-life balance, or welfare provision. To offer evidence for this hypothesis, we apply techniques of mediation analysis to data from two rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS 2004 and 2010). Our analysis suggested that the effect of jobs with uncertain conditions on fertility intentions depends on the level of subjective well-being: the negative effect is found only when subjective well-being is relatively low (i.e. life satisfaction levels equal or below six). Detailed results show that parents and older individuals have lower fertility intentions than childless and younger individuals when they have a job with uncertain conditions and a consequent low subjective well-being. We also found that - while the economic crisis was underway in 2010 - it was especially the deterioration in men's position in the labor market that was associated with lower fertility plans.

Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage Matters for the Subjective Well-being of Individuals in Same-Sex Unions.

We investigate whether the subjective well-being of individuals in same-sex unions improved following the legalization of same-sex marriage in England and Wales in March 2014. We employ repeated cross-sectional data from the 2011-2016 Annual Population Surveys on 476,411 persons, including 4,112 individuals in coresidential same-sex relationships. The analysis reveals increases in subjective well-being for individuals in same-sex relationships following legalization. Additional analysis documents higher subjective well-being for individuals in married same-sex couples compared with individuals who are in a civil partnership or an informal cohabiting same-sex union. However, the subjective well-being of individuals from same-sex couples increased after legalization among all subgroups considered, including those who cohabited informally. This result hints at a general reduction in structural stigma as an important mechanism behind the improved well-being of individuals in same-sex unions.

A subregional analysis of family change: The spatial diffusion of one-parent families across Italian municipalities, 1991-2011.

This paper documents the expansion of new family patterns in Italy by scrutinising the spatial diffusion of one-parent families across Italian municipalities for the period 1991-2011. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to the data of the last three Italian Population Censuses, acknowledging that variation cannot be broken down into temporal and spatial effects because space-time interaction is at the very heart of family changes. Our results illustrate substantial subregional and sub-provincial heterogeneities in the spatial organisation of family systems, patterns that might have gone undetected had larger territorial units of analysis been considered. In addition, we show that especially socio-economic factors were associated to the diffusion of new family forms. This paper challenges international scholarship that caricatures Italy as a monolithic, homogeneous family-oriented country.