Using citizen science data for predicting the timing of ecological phenomena across regions.

The scarcity of long-term observational data has limited the use of statistical or machine-learning techniques for predicting intraannual ecological variation. However, time-stamped citizen-science observation records, supported by media data such as photographs, are increasingly available. In the present article, we present a novel framework based on the concept of relative phenological niche, using machine-learning algorithms to model observation records as a temporal sample of environmental conditions in which the represented ecological phenomenon occurs. Our approach accurately predicts the temporal dynamics of ecological events across large geographical scales and is robust to temporal bias in recording effort. These results highlight the vast potential of citizen-science observation data to predict ecological phenomena across space, including in near real time. The framework is also easily applicable for ecologists and practitioners already using machine-learning and statistics-based predictive approaches.

The Ant-like Tachydromia Complex in the Iberian Peninsula-Insights from Habitat Suitability Modelling for the Conservation of an Endemism (Diptera: Hybotidae).

Ant-like flies comprise nine Iberian endemic species of flightless Tachydromia. Severe knowledge gaps on distribution and ecological requirements hinder conservation assessments. Species distribution models were applied to unveil habitat suitability and to provide guidelines for future studies. An ensemble modeling approach combining ten different techniques was implemented with the biomod2 package. Occurrence data was partitioned into six sets, including two multi-species groups and four species. The most relevant drivers of habitat suitability are climate-related, followed by forest type and structure, according to well-defined biogeographic gradients. T. lusitanica and T. ebejeri are adapted to mild temperatures and high-humidity environments. Their distribution is connected to the Temperate-Eurosiberian life zone. T. semiaptera and T. iberica are adapted to progressively drier and hotter central and southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula, connected to transitional Temperate-submediterranean areas. Ant-like fly' ranges overlap with deciduous/marcescent oak species, acting as suitable indicators of their presence in Iberia. Southern marcescent forests emerge as "islands" with particular interest for future prospections. Ant-like flies are threatened by several factors such as climate change and habitat destruction, including urbanization and forest fires. This study provides vital tools to better assess the ant-like flies' conservation status and to manage their habitat.

Pervasive hybridization with local wild relatives in Western European grapevine varieties.

Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) diversity richness results from a complex domestication history over multiple historical periods. Here, we used whole-genome resequencing to elucidate different aspects of its recent evolutionary history. Our results support a model in which a central domestication event in grapevine was followed by postdomestication hybridization with local wild genotypes, leading to the presence of an introgression signature in modern wine varieties across Western Europe. The strongest signal was associated with a subset of Iberian grapevine varieties showing large introgression tracts. We targeted this study group for further analysis, demonstrating how regions under selection in wild populations from the Iberian Peninsula were preferentially passed on to the cultivated varieties by gene flow. Examination of underlying genes suggests that environmental adaptation played a fundamental role in both the evolution of wild genotypes and the outcome of hybridization with cultivated varieties, supporting a case of adaptive introgression in grapevine.

Late Quaternary range shifts of marcescent oaks unveil the dynamics of a major biogeographic transition in southern Europe.

Marcescent forests are ecotones distributed across southern Europe that host increased levels of biodiversity but their persistence is threatened by global change. Here we study the range dynamics of these forests in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) during the Late Quaternary, a period of profound climate and anthropic changes. We modeled and compared the distribution of eight oak taxa for the present and two paleoclimatic environments, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21 kya) and the Mid-Holocene (MH, ~ 6 kya). Presence records were combined with bioclimatic and topographic data in an ensemble modelling framework to obtain spatial projections for present and past conditions across taxa. Substantial distribution shifts were projected between the three studied periods, that were explained by precipitation, winter cold and terrain ruggedness. Results were congruent with paleoclimatic records of the IP and showed that range shifts of these contact zones concurred with range dynamics of both Submediterranean and Temperate oaks. Notably, the distribution ranges of hybrid oaks and marcescent forests matched throughout the late Quaternary. This study contributes to unveil the complex Late-Quaternary biogeography of the ecotone belt occupied by marcescent forests and, more broadly, of Mediterranean oaks. Improved knowledge of species' responses to climate dynamics will allow us to anticipate and manage future range shifts driven by climate change.

Folklore and traditional ecological knowledge of geckos in Southern Portugal: implications for conservation and science.

Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) and folklore are repositories of large amounts of information about the natural world. Ideas, perceptions and empirical data held by human communities regarding local species are important sources which enable new scientific discoveries to be made, as well as offering the potential to solve a number of conservation problems. We documented the gecko-related folklore and TEK of the people of southern Portugal, with the particular aim of understanding the main ideas relating to gecko biology and ecology. Our results suggest that local knowledge of gecko ecology and biology is both accurate and relevant. As a result of information provided by local inhabitants, knowledge of the current geographic distribution of Hemidactylus turcicus was expanded, with its presence reported in nine new locations. It was also discovered that locals still have some misconceptions of geckos as poisonous and carriers of dermatological diseases. The presence of these ideas has led the population to a fear of and aversion to geckos, resulting in direct persecution being one of the major conservation problems facing these animals. It is essential, from both a scientific and conservationist perspective, to understand the knowledge and perceptions that people have towards the animals, since, only then, may hitherto unrecognized pertinent information and conservation problems be detected and resolved.