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BACKGROUND: Mental health service providers are increasingly interested in patient perspectives. We examined rates and predictors of patient-reported satisfaction and perceived helpfulness in a cross-national general population survey of adults with 12-month DSM-IV disorders who saw a provider for help with their mental health. METHODS: Data were obtained from epidemiological surveys in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Respondents were asked about satisfaction with treatments received from up to 11 different types of providers (very satisfied, satisfied, neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, very dissatisfied) and helpfulness of the provider (a lot, some, a little, not at all). We modelled predictors of satisfaction and helpfulness using a dataset of patient-provider observations (n = 5,248). RESULTS: Most treatment was provided by general medical providers (37.4%), psychiatrists (18.4%) and psychologists (12.7%). Most patients were satisfied or very satisfied (65.9-87.5%, across provider) and helped a lot or some (64.4-90.3%). Spiritual advisors and healers were most often rated satisfactory and helpful. Social workers in human services settings were rated lowest on both dimensions. Patients also reported comparatively low satisfaction with general medical doctors and psychiatrists/psychologists and found general medical doctors less helpful than other providers. Men and students reported lower levels of satisfaction than women and nonstudents. Respondents with high education reported higher satisfaction and helpfulness than those with lower education. Type of mental disorder was unrelated to satisfaction but in some cases (depression, bipolar spectrum disorder, social phobia) was associated with low perceived helpfulness. Insurance was unrelated to either satisfaction or perceived helpfulness but in some cases was associated with elevated perceived helpfulness for a given level of satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: Satisfaction with and perceived helpfulness of treatment varied as a function of type of provider, service setting, mental status, and socio-demographic variables. Invariably, caution is needed in combining data from multiple countries where there are cultural and service delivery variations. Even so, our findings underscore the utility of patient perspectives in treatment evaluation and may also be relevant in efforts to match patients to treatments.
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BACKGROUND: Despite their documented efficacy, substantial proportions of patients discontinue antidepressant medication (ADM) without a doctor's recommendation. The current report integrates data on patient-reported reasons into an investigation of patterns and predictors of ADM discontinuation. METHODS: Face-to-face interviews with community samples from 13 countries (n = 30 697) in the World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys included n = 1890 respondents who used ADMs within the past 12 months. RESULTS: 10.9% of 12-month ADM users reported discontinuation-based on recommendation of the prescriber while 15.7% discontinued in the absence of prescriber recommendation. The main patient-reported reason for discontinuation was feeling better (46.6%), which was reported by a higher proportion of patients who discontinued within the first 2 weeks of treatment than later. Perceived ineffectiveness (18.5%), predisposing factors (e.g. fear of dependence) (20.0%), and enabling factors (e.g. inability to afford treatment cost) (5.0%) were much less commonly reported reasons. Discontinuation in the absence of prescriber recommendation was associated with low country income level, being employed, and having above average personal income. Age, prior history of psychotropic medication use, and being prescribed treatment from a psychiatrist rather than from a general medical practitioner, in comparison, were associated with a lower probability of this type of discontinuation. However, these predictors varied substantially depending on patient-reported reasons for discontinuation. CONCLUSION: Dropping out early is not necessarily negative with almost half of individuals noting they felt better. The study underscores the diverse reasons given for dropping out and the need to evaluate how and whether dropping out influences short- or long-term functioning.
Subject(s)
Antidepressive Agents , Patient Reported Outcome Measures , Humans , Antidepressive Agents/therapeutic use , Surveys and Questionnaires , Health Surveys , World Health OrganizationABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Information on the frequency and timing of mental disorder onsets across the lifespan is of fundamental importance for public health planning. Broad, cross-national estimates of this information from coordinated general population surveys were last updated in 2007. We aimed to provide updated and improved estimates of age-of-onset distributions, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk. METHODS: In this cross-national analysis, we analysed data from respondents aged 18 years or older to the World Mental Health surveys, a coordinated series of cross-sectional, face-to-face community epidemiological surveys administered between 2001 and 2022. In the surveys, the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured psychiatric diagnostic interview, was used to assess age of onset, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk of 13 DSM-IV mental disorders until age 75 years across surveys by sex. We did not assess ethnicity. The surveys were geographically clustered and weighted to adjust for selection probability, and standard errors of incidence rates and cumulative incidence curves were calculated using the jackknife repeated replications simulation method, taking weighting and geographical clustering of data into account. FINDINGS: We included 156 331 respondents from 32 surveys in 29 countries, including 12 low-income and middle-income countries and 17 high-income countries, and including 85 308 (54·5%) female respondents and 71 023 (45·4%) male respondents. The lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder was 28·6% (95% CI 27·9-29·2) for male respondents and 29·8% (29·2-30·3) for female respondents. Morbid risk of any mental disorder by age 75 years was 46·4% (44·9-47·8) for male respondents and 53·1% (51·9-54·3) for female respondents. Conditional probabilities of first onset peaked at approximately age 15 years, with a median age of onset of 19 years (IQR 14-32) for male respondents and 20 years (12-36) for female respondents. The two most prevalent disorders were alcohol use disorder and major depressive disorder for male respondents and major depressive disorder and specific phobia for female respondents. INTERPRETATION: By age 75 years, approximately half the population can expect to develop one or more of the 13 mental disorders considered in this Article. These disorders typically first emerge in childhood, adolescence, or young adulthood. Services should have the capacity to detect and treat common mental disorders promptly and to optimise care that suits people at these crucial parts of the life course. FUNDING: None.
Subject(s)
Depressive Disorder, Major , Mental Disorders , Phobic Disorders , Adolescent , Humans , Male , Female , Young Adult , Adult , Depressive Disorder, Major/epidemiology , Age of Onset , Cross-Sectional Studies , Health Surveys , Mental Disorders/epidemiology , Phobic Disorders/epidemiology , Surveys and Questionnaires , Prevalence , Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders , ComorbidityABSTRACT
The cost-effectiveness of Cerebrolysin as an add-on therapy for moderate-severe acute ischemic stroke is a topic that remains understudied. This study aims to address this gap by performing a comprehensive cost-utility analysis using both deterministic and probabilistic methods from a payer perspective and within the Romanian inpatient care setting. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated using partial individual patient data from the 2016 Cerebrolysin and Recovery After Stroke (CARS) trial, utilizing three different health state valuation models. Cost data was extracted from actual acute care costs reported by Romanian public hospitals for reimbursement purposes for patients included in the CARS study. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for each treatment arm for the duration of the clinical trial. Deterministic analysis based on sample mean values indicates Cerebrolysin would be cost-effective at a threshold between roughly 18.8 and 29.9 thousand EUR, depending on valuation techniques. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results indicate an 80% chance probability of cost-effectiveness of Cerebrolysin as an add-on therapy for acute ischemic stroke, considering a willingness-to-pay threshold of 50,000 EUR in a 90-day timeframe after stroke. Further economic evaluations of Cerebrolysin are needed to strengthen these findings, covering a timeframe of at least 12 months after the acute incident, which would account for treatment effects spanning beyond the first 90 days after ischemic stroke. These should be conducted to determine its cost-effectiveness under various care settings and patient pathways. Most importantly, modelling techniques are needed to answer important questions such as the estimates of population gain in QALYs after acute administration of Cerebrolysin and the potential offsetting of direct medical costs as a result of administering the intervention.
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Background and Objectives: Groin hernia repair surgery (GHRS) is among the most common elective interventions. The aim of this three-year nationwide study on GHRS is to provide a thorough analysis of the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic had on the Romanian Health System in regard to elective procedures. Materials and Methods: 46,795 groin hernia cases obtained between 2019 and 2021 from the DRG database using ICD-10 diagnostic codes. The data were collected from all 261 GHRS performing hospitals nationwide, including 227 public hospitals (PbH) and 34 private hospitals (PvH). The 42 variables taken into account were processed using Microsoft Excel 2021, applying Chi square, F-Test Two-Sample for variances, and Two Sample t-Test. The significance threshold considered was p < 0.001. Results: Of the grand total of cases, 96.2% were inguinal hernias, 86.8% were performed on men, 15.2% were laparoscopic procedures, and 6.88% were in PvH. Overall, due to the pandemic, the total number of GHRS decreased with 44.45% in 2020 and with 29.72% in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic year 2019. April 2020 shows the steepest decrease in GHRS (91 procedures nationwide). In the private sector, there was an opposite trend with increases in the number of cases by 12.21% and a 70.22% in both pandemic years. The mean admission period (MAP) for all procedures was 5.5 days. There was a significant difference between PbH and PvH (5.75 vs. 2.8 days, p < 0.0001). During the pandemic, the MAP in PbH decreased (6.02 in 2019, 5.82 in 2020 and 5.3 in 2021), remaining stable for PvH (2.9 days in 2019, 2.85 days in 2020 and 2.74 days in 2021). Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced the overall number of GHRS performed in Romania in 2020 and 2021, compared to 2019. However, the private sector thrived with an actual increase in the number of cases. There was a significant lower MAP in the PvH compared to PbH throughout the three-year period.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hernia, Inguinal , Laparoscopy , Male , Humans , Hernia, Inguinal/epidemiology , Hernia, Inguinal/surgery , Pandemics , Romania/epidemiology , Herniorrhaphy/methods , Groin/surgery , COVID-19/epidemiology , Laparoscopy/methodsABSTRACT
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic context led to a relevant burden on essential sectors of society; hospital sector capacity is tested in this period. Methods: A cross-sectional study of admissions in hospitals reporting DRG data for 2018-2020. Trend analysis of admissions and deaths in hospitals was carried out for identifying annual patterns and deviations from the 2010-2020 trend. Data aggregated by year, month, diagnosis, death in hospital. Graph analysis for time and diagnosis comparisons and correlation identifying associations. Results: There is an annual change in admission and death patterns recorded in Romanian hospitals. An important contraction in number of acute hospital admissions was recording during the COVID-19 pandemic; patients' hesitancy to seek healthcare and limited capacity to treat patients other than COVID-19 patients due to legal regulations limiting the admissions number could explain this pattern of admission only for serious condition or emergency surgery. In Romania excess deaths in second half 2020 was generally greater than COVID-19 deaths. Overall, excess mortality between March and December 2020 was more than double than reported COVID-19 deaths. The same mortality pattern persists, but with significant decreases for some diagnoses. Conclusions: The Romanian healthcare system has been challenged due to COVID-19 pandemic, leading to temporary reorganization of hospitals with consequences on all acute care diagnostics and therapeutic pathways. It is a challenge to identify causes of reduced inpatient treatment rates and to provide evidence on hospital activity for understanding future optimal management of patients with COVID-19, but also with other acute and chronic conditions.
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This article compares the health system responses to COVID-19 in Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania from February 2020 until the end of 2020. It explores similarities and differences between the three countries, building primarily on the methodology and content compiled in the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor (HSRM). We find that all three countries entered the COVID-19 crisis with common problems, including workforce shortages and underdeveloped and underutilized preventive and primary care. The countries reacted swiftly to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, declaring a state of emergency in March 2020 and setting up new governance mechanisms. The initial response benefited from a centralized approach and high levels of public trust but proved to be only a short-term solution. Over time, governance became dominated by political and economic considerations, communication to the public became contradictory, and levels of public trust declined dramatically. The three countries created additional bed capacity for the treatment of COVID-19 patients in the first wave, but a greater challenge was to ensure a sufficient supply of qualified health workers. New digital and remote tools for the provision of non-COVID-19 health services were introduced or used more widely, with an increase in telephone or online consultations and a simplification of administrative procedures. However, the provision and uptake of non-COVID-19 health services was still affected negatively by the pandemic. Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed pre-existing health system and governance challenges in the three countries, leading to a large number of preventable deaths.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Bulgaria/epidemiology , Croatia/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , Romania/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
Provider payment mechanisms were adjusted in many countries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Our objective was to review adjustments for hospitals and healthcare professionals across 20 countries. We developed an analytical framework distinguishing between payment adjustments compensating income loss and those covering extra costs related to COVID-19. Information was extracted from the Covid-19 Health System Response Monitor (HSRM) and classified according to the framework. We found that income loss was not a problem in countries where professionals were paid by salary or capitation and hospitals received global budgets. In countries where payment was based on activity, income loss was compensated through budgets and higher fees. New FFS payments were introduced to incentivize remote services. Payments for COVID-19 related costs included new fees for out- and inpatient services but also new PD and DRG tariffs for hospitals. Budgets covered the costs of adjusting wards, creating new (ICU) beds, and hiring staff. We conclude that public payers assumed most of the COVID-19-related financial risk. In view of future pandemics policymakers should work to increase resilience of payment systems by: (1) having systems in place to rapidly adjust payment systems; (2) being aware of the economic incentives created by these adjustments such as cost-containment or increasing the number of patients or services, that can result in unintended consequences such as risk selection or overprovision of care; and (3) periodically evaluating the effects of payment adjustments on access and quality of care.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Budgets , Fees and Charges , Humans , Motivation , PandemicsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: N-Pep-12 is a dietary supplement with neuroprotective and pro-cognitive effects, as shown in experimental models and clinical studies on patients after ischemic stroke. We tested the hypothesis that N-Pep-12 influences quantitative electroencephalography (QEEG) parameters in patients with subacute to chronic supratentorial ischemic lesions. METHODS: We performed secondary data analysis on an exploratory clinical trial (ISRCTN10702895), assessing the efficacy and safety of 90 days of once-daily treatment with 90 mg N-Pep-12 on neurocognitive function and neurorecovery outcome in patients with post-stroke cognitive impairment against a control group. All participants performed two 32-channel QEEG in resting and active states at baseline (30-120 days after stroke) and 90 days later. Power spectral density on the alpha, beta, theta, delta frequency bands, delta/alpha power ratio (DAR), and (delta+theta)/(alpha+beta) ratio (DTABR) were computed and compared across study groups using means comparison and descriptive methods. Secondarily, associations between QEEG parameters and available neuropsychological tests were explored. RESULTS: Our analysis showed a statistically significant main effect of EEG segments (p<0.001) in alpha, beta, delta, theta, DA, and DTAB power spectral density. An interaction effect between EEG segments and time was noticed in the alpha power. There was a significant difference in theta spectral power between patients with N-Pep-12 supplementation versus placebo at 0.05 alpha level (p=0.023), independent of time points. CONCLUSION: A 90-day, 90 mg daily administration of N-Pep-12 had significant impact on some QEEG indicators in patients after supratentorial ischemic stroke, confirming possible enhancement of post-stroke neurorecovery. Further research is needed to consolidate our findings.
Subject(s)
Brain Ischemia , Ischemic Stroke , Stroke , Brain Ischemia/complications , Brain Ischemia/drug therapy , Dietary Supplements , Electroencephalography , Humans , Stroke/drug therapyABSTRACT
Această analiză face parte dintr-o serie de studii naționale menite să obțină dovezi noi privind protecția financiară în Europa. Protecția financiară este esențială pentru acoperirea universală cu servicii de sănătate și este un aspect esențial al performanței sistemelor sanitare. În România există o incidență mai mare a cheltuielilor pentru sănătate catastrofale decât în alte țări din Uniunea Europeană, și este mult mai mare decât ar fi fost de așteptat, ținând cont de faptul că România nu se bazează foarte mult pe plăți directe pentru a finanța sistemul de sănătate. Acestea sunt concentrate îndeosebi în rândul gospodăriilor mai sărace și al persoanelor în vârstă, demonstrând astfel lacunele la nivelul celor trei dimensiuni ale acoperirii medicale (drepturile populației, acoperirea cu servicii și contribuțiile suportate de beneficiari), punctele slabe ale politicii de cumpărare de servicii și nivelurile scăzute ale cheltuielilor publice pentru sănătate. Dificultățile financiare sunt determinate în principal de plățile directe pentru medicamentele din ambulatoriu și au crescut pe parcursul timpului, mai ales în rândul gospodăriilor mai sărace. Pentru a putea reduce nevoile nesatisfăcute și dificultățile financiare, Guvernul ar trebui să se axeze pe a face mai accesibile ca preț medicamentele din ambulatoriu (inclusiv cele eliberate fără prescripție medicală) și serviciile stomatologice. Aceasta se poate realiza prin identificarea de soluții pentru: asigurarea întregii populații în sistemul Casei Naționale de Asigurări de Sănătate (CNAS); introducerea unor excepții de la coplată pentru gospodăriile cu venituri mici și pentru persoanele cu afecțiuni cronice; introducerea unui plafon anual pentru toate coplățile, corelat cu venitul gospodăriei; îmbunătățirea politicii CNAS de cumpărare a serviciilor de sănătate; limitarea contribuțiilor personale și a plăților pentru servicii suplimentare; și luarea de măsuri în privința plăților informale și a calității serviciilor. Aceste eforturi vor necesita creșteri substanțiale și constante ale cheltuielilor publice pentru sănătate. Toate fondurile suplimentare noi ar trebui alocate cu atenție, astfel încât să îndeplinească obiectivele de echitate și eficiență.
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Healthcare Financing , Health Expenditures , Health Services Accessibility , Financing, Personal , Poverty , Romania , Universal Health CareABSTRACT
This review is part of a series of country-based studies generating new evidence on financial protection in Europe. Financial protection is central to universal health coverage and a core dimension of health system performance. The incidence of catastrophic health spending is high in Romania compared to many countries in the European Union and higher than expected given Romania’s relatively low reliance on out-of-pocket payments to finance the health system. It is heavily concentrated among poorer households and older people, reflecting gaps in all three dimensions of health coverage (population entitlement, service coverage and user charges), weaknesses in purchasing policy and low levels of public spending on health. Financial hardship is mainly driven by out-of-pocket payments for outpatient medicines and has increased over time, particularly among poorer households. To reduce unmet need and financial hardship, the Government should focus on improving the affordability of outpatient medicines (including over-the-counter treatment) and dental care. This can be done by finding ways to: ensure the National Health Insurance House (NHIH) covers the whole population; introduce exemptions from co-payments for low-income households and people with chronic conditions; introduce an annual cap on all co-payments and link the cap to household income; improve NHIH purchasing policy; limit balance billing and extra billing; and pay attention to informal payments and service quality. These efforts will require sustained increases in public spending on health. Any new additional funds should be carefully allocated to meet equity and efficiency goals.
Subject(s)
Healthcare Financing , Health Expenditures , Health Services Accessibility , Financing, Personal , Poverty , Romania , Universal Health CareABSTRACT
The epidemiology of neglected tropical diseases (NTD) is persistently underprioritized, despite NTD being widespread among the poorest populations and in the least developed countries on earth. This situation necessitates thorough and efficient public health intervention. Romania is at the brink of becoming a developed country. However, this South-Eastern European country appears to be a region that is susceptible to an underestimated burden of parasitic diseases despite recent public health reforms. Moreover, there is an evident lack of new epidemiologic data on NTD after Romania's accession to the European Union (EU) in 2007. Using the national ICD-10 dataset for hospitalized patients in Romania, we generated time series datasets for 2008-2018. The objective was to gain deep understanding of the epidemiological distribution of three selected and highly endemic parasitic diseases, namely, ascariasis, enterobiasis and cystic echinococcosis (CE), during this period and forecast their courses for the ensuing two years. Through descriptive and inferential analysis, we observed a decline in case numbers for all three NTD. Several distributional particularities at regional level emerged. Furthermore, we performed predictions using a novel automated time series (AutoTS) machine learning tool and could interestingly show a stable course for these parasitic NTD. Such predictions can help public health officials and medical organizations to implement targeted disease prevention and control. To our knowledge, this is the first study involving a retrospective analysis of ascariasis, enterobiasis and CE on a nationwide scale in Romania. It is also the first to use AutoTS technology for parasitic NTD.
Subject(s)
Ascariasis/epidemiology , Echinococcosis/epidemiology , Enterobiasis/epidemiology , Forecasting , Humans , Machine Learning , Public Health , Retrospective Studies , Romania , Time FactorsABSTRACT
Backgtound: The progress in development and application of Minimal Invasive Surgery (MIS) requires clinical and managerial decisions that must be evidence based; the current available scientific evidence for the Romanian medical practice is missing. Our study aims to analyze the use of MIS and open surgery in Romania and the impact of the type of surgery on the hospitalization. Methodology: A cross-sectional study analyzed the activity of the Romanian hospitals reporting primary Diagnostic Related Group (DRG) data at the patient level in the period 2008-2018; all episodes of abdominal and thoracic surgical interventions which may be performed either by MIS or an open approach were extracted from the DRG National database (www.drg.ro). A comparative analysis in terms of the volume of activity and their impact on the hospital average length of stay (ALOS) has been performed. Results: The pattern of use for MIS and open surgery interventions was changed in 2008-2018; MIS procedures doubled while open surgery interventions did not follow the same growth rate; ALOS for the MIS procedures decreased annually at a faster rate as compared to the ALOS for the open surgery and the gap between the two gradually increased in favour of the MIS interventions. The most pronounced shortening of ALOS after MIS procedures has been found for Gallbladder Surgery (by 7.95 days), Gastric Surgery (by 5.64 days) and Incisional Hernia surgery (by 4.33 days). Meanwhile, the reimbursement level for the MIS versus open surgery interventions did not changed over the analyzed period. Conclusions: MIS is significantly reducing the ALOS in Romania with a potential positive influence on the national healthcare budget. However, the pattern of use for MIS interventions is not financial incentives based and calls for in-depth analysis on other factors belonging rather to specific pathology, technology or medical practice (experience in using MIS, endowment, safety, efficacy, surgical approach area etc.) is urgently required.
Subject(s)
Incisional Hernia , Minimally Invasive Surgical Procedures , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Length of Stay , Treatment OutcomeABSTRACT
The mental health of the elderly is a matter of increased concern in the context of an aging population since currently only a small fraction of this population is receiving adequate care. The provision of treatment in primary care by the General Practitioners (GPs) has been proposed for over a decade as a potential solution, as services offered by GPs are more accessible, less susceptible to stigma, and have a more comprehensive view of the other health care problems that the elderly might suffer from. In this study, we explored the perception of Romanian GPs regarding their practice and roles in caring for the mental health of the elderly as well as the willingness to increase their future involvement in the management of dementia and other mental health problems. Data was collected via an online questionnaire structured on four dimensions: (1) GPs' sociodemographic profile and practice characteristics, (2) GPs assessment of the services available for elderly with mental health problems, (3) GPs current involvement in mental health care for different categories of problems, and (4) factors that might influence the future involvement of GPs in providing care for elderly with mental health problems. The survey was sent via the member mailing lists of the National Society for Family Medicine. Results show that GPs are currently limited by prescribing possibilities, available resources and knowledge in the area, but they are willing to expand their role in the areas of early recognition and prevention of mental health problems as well as providing disease management and collaborative care. An improved communication with mental health care professionals, a better access to resources and having more financial incentives are the three most important categories for GPs to increase their involvement. In conclusion, increasing the access to personal and professional resources and setting up functional communication channels with specialized mental health care could motivate GPs to provide timely mental health support to elderly patients.
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BACKGROUND: Health policies in transitioning health systems are rarely informed by the economic burden of disease due to scanty access to data. This study aimed to estimate direct and indirect costs for first-ever acute ischemic stroke (AIS) during the first year for patients residing in Cluj, Romania, and hospitalized in 2019 at the County Emergency Hospital (CEH). METHODS: The study was conducted using a mixed, retrospective costing methodology from a societal perspective to measure the cost of first-ever AIS in the first year after onset. Patient pathways for AIS were reconstructed to aid in mapping inpatient and outpatient cost items. We used anonymized administrative and clinical data at the hospital level and publicly available databases. RESULTS: The average cost per patient in the first year after stroke onset was RON 25,297.83 (EUR 5226.82), out of which 80.87% were direct costs. The total cost in Cluj, Romania in 2019 was RON 17,455,502.7 (EUR 3,606,505.8). CONCLUSIONS: Our costing exercise uncovered shortcomings of stroke management in Romania, particularly related to acute care and neurorehabilitation service provision. Romania spends significantly less on healthcare than other countries (5.5% of GDP vs. 9.8% European Union average), exposing stroke survivors to a disproportionately high risk for preventable and treatable post-stroke disability.
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The application of machine learning (ML) for use in generating insights and making predictions on new records continues to expand within the medical community. Despite this progress to date, the application of time series analysis has remained underexplored due to complexity of the underlying techniques. In this study, we have deployed a novel ML, called automated time series (AutoTS) machine learning, to automate data processing and the application of a multitude of models to assess which best forecasts future values. This rapid experimentation allows for and enables the selection of the most accurate model in order to perform time series predictions. By using the nation-wide ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision) dataset of hospitalized patients of Romania, we have generated time series datasets over the period of 2008-2018 and performed highly accurate AutoTS predictions for the ten deadliest diseases. Forecast results for the years 2019 and 2020 were generated on a NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regional level. This is the first study to our knowledge to perform time series forecasting of multiple diseases at a regional level using automated time series machine learning on a national ICD-10 dataset. The deployment of AutoTS technology can help decision makers in implementing targeted national health policies more efficiently.
Subject(s)
International Classification of Diseases , Machine Learning , Databases, Factual , Forecasting , Humans , RomaniaABSTRACT
The aim of this paper is to examine aggressive behaviors among Romanian high school students between 15 and 16 years old, to compare data in two national representative samples and to identify factors associated with physical fighting. This study investigates the association of selected factors (social, school performance and substance use) with physical fighting. A total of 2289 Romanian students were included in the 2007 database and 2770 in the 2011 database. This study revealed that 35.87% of the teenagers have taken part in a physical fight during the previous 12 months, as compared with the European average of 31.5%. Romania has the highest prevalence of violent behavior by participating in a group bruising of an individual in both surveys, 2007 and 2011. A logistic regression analysis performed for the 2011 study revealed the following factors associated with physical fighting: binge drinking during the previous 30 days, male gender, serious problems with friends, parent(s) who do not know where and with whom the adolescents spend their evenings, poor parental caring, low school grades, and high truancy. A decrease in almost all aggressive behaviors was noticed in 2011, compared to 2007. These findings may be useful to support and guide policy makers regarding improvement and implementation of strategies to further prevent aggressive behaviors in teenagers.
Subject(s)
Adolescent Behavior , Aggression , Violence , Adolescent , Alcohol Drinking , Female , Humans , Male , Romania , Students , Surveys and QuestionnairesABSTRACT
One of the main objectives of the National Strategy for Hospitals Rationalization approved by the Romanian Government in 2011 was to resize the hospital sector in order to improve efficiency. To this end, the government decided the closure of 67 inpatient care facilities with low efficiency scores, giving them the opportunity to become nursing homes for elderly under a national programme financed by the Ministry of Labour, Family and Social Protection. The measure faced a tremendous public opposition that put pressure on politicians to re-open some hospitals, while other hospitals were re-opened by the governments that followed in order to consolidate their power. Since only 20 closed institutions have been reorganized as nursing homes for elderly and almost 40 are currently performing medical activities, this decision was generally perceived as a policy failure. Nevertheless, a thorough analysis, shows that the medical facilities that are still functioning - either merged with other hospitals, or re-organized as state or private medical institutions have improved efficiency by reshaping services provided to the population needs, mobilizing communities and local authorities investments and initiating public-private partnerships. Besides revealing the unexpected benefits resulted from the implementation of this policy, the Romanian experience provides some useful insights for other countries that are also facing the challenge of reducing the oversized hospital sector.
Subject(s)
Delivery of Health Care/standards , Efficiency, Organizational , Health Care Reform , Hospitals/standards , Government Programs/methods , Health Policy , Humans , Public-Private Sector Partnerships , RomaniaSubject(s)
Budgets , Healthcare Financing , Health Workforce , Medicine , Health Services Accessibility , National Health Programs , RomaniaABSTRACT
This analysis of the Romanian health system reviews recent developments in organization and governance, health financing, health care provision, health reforms and health system performance. The Romanian health care system is a social health insurance system that has remained highly centralized despite recent efforts to decentralize some regulatory functions. It provides a comprehensive benefits package to the 85% of the population that is covered, with the remaining population having access to a minimum package of benefits. While every insured person has access to the same health care benefits regardless of their socioeconomic situation, there are inequities in access to health care across many dimensions, such as rural versus urban, and health outcomes also differ across these dimensions. The Romanian population has seen increasing life expectancy and declining mortality rates but both remain among the worst in the European Union. Some unfavourable trends have been observed, including increasing numbers of new HIV/AIDS diagnoses and falling immunization rates. Public sources account for over 80% of total health financing. However, that leaves considerable out-of-pocket payments covering almost a fifth of total expenditure. The share of informal payments also seems to be substantial, but precise figures are unknown. In 2014, Romania had the lowest health expenditure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) among the EU Member States. In line with the government's objective of strengthening the role of primary care, the total number of hospital beds has been decreasing. However, health care provision remains characterized by underprovision of primary and community care and inappropriate use of inpatient and specialized outpatient care, including care in hospital emergency departments. The numbers of physicians and nurses are relatively low in Romania compared to EU averages. This has mainly been attributed to the high rates of workers emigrating abroad over the past decade, exacerbated by Romania's EU accession and the reduction of public sector salaries due to the economic crisis. Reform in the Romanian health system has been both constant and yet frequently ineffective, due in part to the high degree of political instability. Recent reforms have focused mainly on introducing cost-saving measures, for example, by attempting to shift some of the health care costs to drug manufacturers by claw-back and to the population through co-payments, and on improving the monitoring of health care expenditure.