SARS-CoV-2 Genome-Based Severity Predictions Correspond to Lower qPCR Values and Higher Viral Load.

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has demonstrated the importance of predicting, identifying, and tracking mutations throughout a pandemic event. As the COVID-19 global pandemic surpassed one year, several variants had emerged resulting in increased severity and transmissibility. Here, we used PCR as a surrogate for viral load and consequent severity to evaluate the real-world capabilities of a genome-based clinical severity predictive algorithm. Using a previously published algorithm, we compared the viral genome-based severity predictions to clinically derived PCR-based viral load of 716 viral genomes. For those samples predicted to be "severe" (probability of severe illness >0.5), we observed an average cycle threshold (Ct) of 18.3, whereas those in in the "mild" category (severity probability <0.5) had an average Ct of 20.4 (P=0.0017). We also found a nontrivial correlation between predicted severity probability and cycle threshold (r = -0.199). Finally, when divided into severity probability quartiles, the group most likely to experience severe illness (≥75% probability) had a Ct of 16.6 (n = 10), whereas the group least likely to experience severe illness (<25% probability) had a Ct of 21.4 (n = 350) (P=0.0045). Taken together, our results suggest that the severity predicted by a genome-based algorithm can be related to clinical diagnostic tests and that relative severity may be inferred from diagnostic values.

Variants in SARS-CoV-2 associated with mild or severe outcome.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global public health emergency causing a disparate burden of death and disability around the world. The viral genetic variants associated with outcome severity are still being discovered. METHODS: We downloaded 155 958 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes from GISAID. Of these genomes, 3637 samples included useable metadata on patient outcomes. Using this subset, we evaluated whether SARS-CoV-2 viral genomic variants improved prediction of reported severity beyond age and region. First, we established whether including genomic variants as model features meaningfully increased the predictive power of our model. Next, we evaluated specific variants in order to determine the magnitude of association with severity and the frequency of these variants among SARS-CoV-2 genomes. RESULTS: Logistic regression models that included viral genomic variants outperformed other models (area under the curve = 0.91 as compared with 0.68 for age and gender alone; P < 0.001). We found 84 variants with odds ratios greater than 2 for outcome severity (17 and 67 for higher and lower severity, respectively). The median frequency of associated variants was 0.15% (interquartile range 0.09-0.45%). Altogether 85% of genomes had at least one variant associated with patient outcome. CONCLUSION: Numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants have 2-fold or greater association with odds of mild or severe outcome and collectively, these variants are common. In addition to comprehensive mitigation efforts, public health measures should be prioritized to control the more severe manifestations of COVID-19 and the transmission chains linked to these severe cases.Lay summary: This study explores which, if any, SARS-CoV-2 viral genomic variants are associated with mild or severe COVID-19 patient outcomes. Our results suggest that there are common genomic variants in SARS-CoV-2 that are more often associated with negative patient outcomes, which may impact downstream public health measures.

Summit on Exercise Collapse Associated with Sickle Cell Trait: Finding the "Way Ahead".

ABSTRACT: Although largely benign, sickle cell trait (SCT) has been associated with exertion-related events, to include sudden death. In 2011, a summit on SCT introduced the term exercise collapse associated with SCT (ECAST). A series of ECAST deaths in military personnel in 2019 prompted reevaluation of current efforts and led to a second summit in October 2019 hosted by the Consortium for Health and Military Performance of the Uniformed Services University in Bethesda, MD. The goals were to (1) review current service policies on SCT screening, (2) develop draft procedural instructions for executing current policy on SCT within the Department of Defense, (3) develop draft clinical practice guidelines for management of ECAST, (4) establish a framework for education on SCT and ECAST, and (5) prepare a research agenda to address identified gaps.

Musculoskeletal Injuries and Automation in Aerial Port Operations.

INTRODUCTION: Aerial ports are being modernized with automated technologies, but the impact on musculoskeletal injury (MSKI) is unknown.METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study of U.S. Air Force aerial port technicians and traffic management technicians, we compared reported injury rates from January 2006-December 2016 and Veterans Benefits Administration disability compensation claims awarded from January 2001-March 2017. Ton-adjusted injury rates, associated lost/affected duty time, and percent risk attributable to lack of automation were compared at Dover Air Force Base (which features base-specific automation), Travis Air Force Base, Ramstein Air Base, and Yokota Air Base.RESULTS: Injuries most often occurred during aircraft/flight line activities and were typically sprains/strains, with extremities being most affected. Among aerial port technicians there were 8.0 injury reports per 1000 person-years compared to 5.2 per 1000 among traffic management technicians (incidence rate ratio = 1.5; 95% CI: 0.9, 3.0). Of the aerial port technicians with a compensation award, 70.7% included an MSKI component, whereas 75.7% of traffic management awards included an MSKI component. Aerial port technicians at Dover AFB experienced 1.4 injury reports per 1000 personnel per 1000 cargo-tons per year, lower than the other ports: 3.2 (Travis); 3.7 (Ramstein); and 7.6 (Yokota). Overall, 56% of injuries at Travis, 62% at Ramstein, and 82% at Yokota could be attributed to absence of Dover-like automation. However, mean lost/affected duty days at Dover (12.4) far exceeded those at the other bases (range: 4.5-8.6).DISCUSSION: Automating aerial ports may reduce injury rates, but the impact on lost/affected duty time requires further investigation.Bylsma VFH, Webber BJ, Erich RA, Voss JD. Musculoskeletal injuries and automation in aerial port operations. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2020; 91(8):669-673.

Assessment of 12 influenza-like illness case definitions using Department of Defense Global, Laboratory-based Influenza Surveillance Program data, 2011-2014.

Despite the growth in influenza surveillance programs, standardization of a globally accepted influenza-like illness (ILI) case definition remains difficult. With 2011-2014 Department of Defense Global, Laboratory-based Influenza Surveillance Program (DISP) data, 12 case definitions were evaluated using a combination of ILI case definitions from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization, and the DISP. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and odds ratios for each case definition were calculated. Additionally, area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to compare the case definitions. Between 2 October 2011 and 27 September 2014, 52.3% (5,575 of 10,662) of respiratory specimens submitted met the inclusion criteria. The case definition for the DISP had a sensitivity of 54.6% and specificity of 63.7%. Case definitions should be selected according to the objectives of the surveillance system and resources available. Sensitive case definitions capture a larger proportion of cases but at the cost of testing more specimens. Definitions with higher specificity result in fewer false positives but may miss more cases.

Viral Infections and Obesity.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Obesity is a multifactorial disease that is now endemic throughout most of the world. Although addressing proximate causes of obesity (excess energy intake and reduced energy expenditure) have been longstanding global health priorities, the problem has continued to worsen at the global level. RECENT FINDINGS: Numerous microbial agents cause obesity in various experimental models-a phenomena known as infectobesity. Several of the same agents alter metabolic function in human cells and are associated with human obesity or metabolic dysfunction in humans. We address the evidence for a role in the genesis of obesity for viral agents in five broad categories: adenoviridae, herpesviridae, phages, transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (slow virus), and other encephalitides and hepatitides. Despite the importance of this topic area, there are many persistent knowledge gaps that need to be resolved. We discuss factors motivating further research and recommend that future infectobesity investigation should be more comprehensive, leveraged, interventional, and patient-centered.

Role of adenoviruses in obesity.

UNLABELLED: Five human adenovirus subtypes, Ad5, Ad9, Ad31, Ad36, and Ad37, and a non-human adenovirus, SMAM1, are linked to increased adiposity in vitro or in vivo. Experimental infection with Ad5, Ad36, and Ad37 produced excess adiposity or weight gain in animals. Ad9 and Ad31 increase fat storage in tissue culture but are not associated with animal or human obesity. Ad36 is the most extensively studied adipogenic adenovirus and is correlated with some measure of overweight/obesity in humans from multiple countries. The correlation is strongest and most consistent in children, but some studies have been negative in both children and adults. About 30% of overweight/obese children and adults and about 15-20% of lean individuals have Ad36 antibodies in epidemiologic studies. The mechanisms of action of Ad36 are due to the early gene 4, open reading frame 1 (E4-ORF1). Blocking E4-ORF1 with siRNA prevents the effects of Ad36, and transfection of lentivirus with E4-ORF1 reproduces the Ad36 effects. Increased adiposity is caused by stimulation of at least three pathways by Ad36. Cell membrane glucose receptors are increased via the Ras pathway, leading to increased intracellular glucose. Fatty acid synthase is increased, which converts the glucose to fatty acids. Finally, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ is increased, resulting in differentiation of adult stem cells into adipocytes. CONCLUSIONS: several adenoviruses increase adiposity in animals and are associated with obesity in humans. There are critical gaps in the literature needing further investigation including evaluation of other adenovirus subtypes and better research designs to improve the strength of causal inferences.

Update on the Epidemiology of Concussion/Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

Mild traumatic injuries to the brain (e.g., concussion) are common and have been recognized since antiquity, although definitions have varied historically. Nonetheless, studying the epidemiology of concussion helps clarify the overall importance, risk factors, and at-risk populations for this injury. The present review will focus on recent findings related to the epidemiology of concussion including definition controversies, incidence, and patterns in the population overall and in the military and athlete populations specifically. Finally, as this is an area of active research, we will discuss how future epidemiologic observations hold promise for gaining greater clarity about concussion and mild traumatic brain injury.

Pneumonia Outbreak Caused by Chlamydophila pneumoniae among US Air Force Academy Cadets, Colorado, USA.

During October 2013-May 2014, there were 102 cases of pneumonia diagnosed in US Air Force Academy cadets. A total of 73% of tested nasal washes contained Chlamydophila pneumoniae. This agent can be considered to be present on campus settings during outbreaks with numerous, seemingly disconnected cases of relatively mild pneumonia.

Packet randomized experiments for eliminating classes of confounders.

BACKGROUND: Although randomization is considered essential for causal inference, it is often not possible to randomize in nutrition and obesity research. To address this, we develop a framework for an experimental design-packet randomized experiments (PREs), which improves causal inferences when randomization on a single treatment variable is not possible. This situation arises when subjects are randomly assigned to a condition (such as a new roommate) which varies in one characteristic of interest (such as weight), but also varies across many others. There has been no general discussion of this experimental design, including its strengths, limitations, and statistical properties. As such, researchers are left to develop and apply PREs on an ad hoc basis, limiting its potential to improve causal inferences among nutrition and obesity researchers. METHODS: We introduce PREs as an intermediary design between randomized controlled trials and observational studies. We review previous research that used the PRE design and describe its application in obesity-related research, including random roommate assignments, heterochronic parabiosis, and the quasi-random assignment of subjects to geographic areas. We then provide a statistical framework to control for potential packet-level confounders not accounted for by randomization. RESULTS: Packet randomized experiments have successfully been used to improve causal estimates of the effect of roommates, altitude, and breastfeeding on weight outcomes. When certain assumptions are met, PREs can asymptotically control for packet-level characteristics. This has the potential to statistically estimate the effect of a single treatment even when randomization to a single treatment did not occur. CONCLUSIONS: Applying PREs to obesity-related research will improve decisions about clinical, public health, and policy actions insofar as it offers researchers new insight into cause and effect relationships among variables.

Adenovirus 36 antibodies associated with clinical diagnosis of overweight/obesity but not BMI gain: a military cohort study.

CONTEXT: Obesity is a public health priority, which also threatens national security. Adenovirus 36 (Adv36) increases adiposity in animals and Adv36 antibody status is associated with human obesity, but it is unknown whether infection predicts the development of human adiposity. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to assess infection status and subsequent weight gain. DESIGN: The study had a retrospective cohort design. SETTING: The study was conducted at Air Force fitness testing and clinical encounters. PARTICIPANTS: PARTICIPANTS included Air Force male enlistees, aged 18-22 years, with a baseline body mass index (BMI) of 20-30 kg/m(2) followed up from enlistment (beginning in 1995) until 2012 or separation from the Air Force. EXPOSURE: EXPOSURE included Adv36 infection status at the time of entry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Follow-up BMI, the primary outcome, and diagnosis of overweight/obesity by the International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision V85.25+ and 278.0* series (secondary outcome) were recorded. RESULTS: The last recorded follow-up BMI was similar among infected and uninfected, 26.4 and 27.2 kg/m(2), respectively (P > .05). However, infected individuals had a higher hazard of a medical provider's diagnosis of overweight/obese over time (hazard ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.0-3.1, P = .04), adjusted for baseline BMI. Additionally, infected individuals who were lean at baseline (BMI of 22.5 kg/m(2)) had a 3.9 times greater hazard of developing an overweight/obese clinical diagnosis (95% confidence interval 1.5-9.7, P = .004) compared with uninfected lean individuals after adjusting for interaction (P = .03) between infection and baseline BMI. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of Adv36 antibodies was not associated with higher BMI at baseline or follow-up within this military population. However, being infected was associated with developing a clinical diagnosis of overweight/obesity, especially among those lean at baseline.

Lower obesity rate during residence at high altitude among a military population with frequent migration: a quasi experimental model for investigating spatial causation.

We sought to evaluate whether residence at high altitude is associated with the development of obesity among those at increased risk of becoming obese. Obesity, a leading global health priority, is often refractory to care. A potentially novel intervention is hypoxia, which has demonstrated positive long-term metabolic effects in rats. Whether or not high altitude residence confers benefit in humans, however, remains unknown. Using a quasi-experimental, retrospective study design, we observed all outpatient medical encounters for overweight active component enlisted service members in the U.S. Army or Air Force from January 2006 to December 2012 who were stationed in the United States. We compared high altitude (>1.96 kilometers above sea level) duty assignment with low altitude (<0.98 kilometers). The outcome of interest was obesity related ICD-9 codes (278.00-01, V85.3x-V85.54) by Cox regression. We found service members had a lower hazard ratio (HR) of incident obesity diagnosis if stationed at high altitude as compared to low altitude (HR 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.65; p<0.001). Using geographic distribution of obesity prevalence among civilians throughout the U.S. as a covariate (as measured by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the REGARDS study) also predicted obesity onset among service members. In conclusion, high altitude residence predicts lower rates of new obesity diagnoses among overweight service members in the U.S. Army and Air Force. Future studies should assign exposure using randomization, clarify the mechanism(s) of this relationship, and assess the net balance of harms and benefits of high altitude on obesity prevention.

The association of ambient air pollution and physical inactivity in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity, ambient air pollution and obesity are modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases, with the first accounting for 10% of premature deaths worldwide. Although community level interventions may target each simultaneously, research on the relationship between these risk factors is lacking. OBJECTIVES: After comparing spatial interpolation methods to determine the best predictor for particulate matter (PM2.5; PM10) and ozone (O3) exposures throughout the U.S., we evaluated the cross-sectional association of ambient air pollution with leisure-time physical inactivity among adults. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we assessed leisure-time physical inactivity using individual self-reported survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. These data were combined with county-level U.S. Environmental Protection Agency air pollution exposure estimates using two interpolation methods (Inverse Distance Weighting and Empirical Bayesian Kriging). Finally, we evaluated whether those exposed to higher levels of air pollution were less active by performing logistic regression, adjusting for demographic and behavioral risk factors, and after stratifying by body weight category. RESULTS: With Empirical Bayesian Kriging air pollution values, we estimated a statistically significant 16-35% relative increase in the odds of leisure-time physical inactivity per exposure class increase of PM2.5 in the fully adjusted model across the normal weight respondents (p-value<0.0001). Evidence suggested a relationship between the increasing dose of PM2.5 exposure and the increasing odds of physical inactivity. CONCLUSIONS: In a nationally representative, cross-sectional sample, increased community level air pollution is associated with reduced leisure-time physical activity particularly among the normal weight. Although our design precludes a causal inference, these results provide additional evidence that air pollution should be investigated as an environmental determinant of inactivity.