Extended cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions to improve uptake of diabetes services in South Africa.

The rising prevalence of diabetes in South Africa (SA), coupled with significant levels of unmet need for diagnosis and treatment, results in high rates of diabetes-associated complications. Income status is a determinant of utilization of diagnosis and treatment services, with transport costs and loss of wages being key barriers to care. A conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme, targeted to compensate for such costs, may improve service utilization. We applied extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and used a Markov model to compare the costs, health benefits and financial risk protection (FRP) attributes of a CCT programme. A population was simulated, drawing from SA-specific data, which transitioned yearly through various health states, based on specific probabilities obtained from local data, over a 45-year time horizon. Costs and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were applied to each health state. Three CCT programme strategies were simulated and compared to a 'no programme' scenario: (1) covering diagnosis services only; (2) covering treatment services only; (3) covering both diagnosis and treatment services. Cost-effectiveness was reported as incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) using a cost-effectiveness threshold of USD3015 per DALY for SA, while FRP outcomes were reported as catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) cases averted. Distributions of the outcomes were reported by income quintile and sex. Covering both diagnosis and treatment services for the bottom two quintiles resulted in the greatest INMB (USD22 per person) and the greatest CHE cases averted. There were greater FRP benefits for women compared to men. A CCT programme covering diabetes diagnosis and treatment services was found to be cost-effective, when provided to the poorest 40% of the SA population. ECEA provides a useful platform for including equity considerations to inform priority setting and implementation policies in SA.

Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Peripheral Artery Disease in Rural South Africa: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the HAALSI Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The burden of peripheral artery disease (PAD) is increasing in low- and middle-income countries. Existing literature from sub-Saharan Africa is limited and lacks population-representative estimates. We estimated the burden and risk factor profile of PAD for a rural South African population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used data from 1883 participants from a rural, low-income cohort of South African adults aged 40 to 69 years with available ankle-brachial index measurements. We defined clinical PAD as ankle-brachial index ≤0.90 or >1.40, and borderline PAD as ankle-brachial index >0.90 and ≤1.00. We compared the distribution of sociodemographic variables, biomarkers, and comorbidities across PAD classifications. To identify associated factors, we calculated unadjusted and age-sex-adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) with log-binomial models. Overall, 6.6% (95% CI, 5.6-7.7) of the sample met the diagnostic criteria for clinical PAD, while 44.7% (95% CI, 42.4-47.0) met the diagnostic criteria for borderline PAD. Age (PR: 1.9 [95% CI, 1.2-3.1] for ages 50-59 years compared with 40-49 years; PR: 2.5 [95% CI, 1.5-4.0] for ages 60-69 years compared with 40-49 years); diagnosed hypertension (PR: 1.53 [95% CI, 1.08-2.17]); and C-reactive protein (PR: 1.08 [95% CI, 1.03-1.12]) were associated with increased prevalence of clinical PAD. All other examined factors were not significantly associated with clinical PAD. CONCLUSIONS: We found high PAD prevalence for younger age groups compared with previous research and a lack of statistical evidence for the influence of traditional risk factors for this rural, low-income population. Future research should focus on identifying the underlying risk factors for PAD in this setting. South African policymakers and clinicians should consider expanded screening for early PAD detection in rural areas.

The role of structural racism and geographical inequity in diabetes outcomes.

Diabetes is pervasive, exponentially growing in prevalence, and outpacing most diseases globally. In this Series paper, we use new theoretical frameworks and a narrative review of existing literature to show how structural inequity (structural racism and geographical inequity) has accelerated rates of diabetes disease, morbidity, and mortality globally. We discuss how structural inequity leads to large, fixed differences in key, upstream social determinants of health, which influence downstream social determinants of health and resultant diabetes outcomes in a cascade of widening inequity. We review categories of social determinants of health with known effects on diabetes outcomes, including public awareness and policy, economic development, access to high-quality care, innovations in diabetes management, and sociocultural norms. We also provide regional perspectives, grounded in our theoretical framework, to highlight prominent, real-world challenges.

Interventions to address global inequity in diabetes: international progress.

Diabetes is a serious chronic disease with high associated burden and disproportionate costs to communities based on socioeconomic, gender, racial, and ethnic status. Addressing the complex challenges of global inequity in diabetes will require intentional efforts to focus on broader social contexts and systems that supersede individual-level interventions. We codify and highlight best practice approaches to achieve equity in diabetes care and outcomes on a global scale. We outline action plans to target diabetes equity on the basis of the recommendations established by The Lancet Commission on Diabetes, organising interventions by their effect on changing the ecosystem, building capacity, or improving the clinical practice environment. We present international examples of how to address diabetes inequity in the real world to show that approaches addressing the individual within a larger social context, in addition to addressing structural inequity, hold the greatest promise for creating sustainable and equitable change that curbs the global diabetes crisis.

Disparities in the Prevalence of Osteoporosis and Osteopenia in Men and Women Living in Sub-Saharan Africa, the UK, and the USA.

PURPOSE: To review the rising prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in sub-Saharan Africa and the challenges this poses to governments and healthcare services. Using existing studies, we compare the prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in men and women from sub-Saharan Africa to US and UK cohorts. Context-specific disparities in healthcare are discussed particularly the challenges in diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis. RECENT FINDINGS: There are few epidemiological data describing the burden of osteoporosis in sub-Saharan Africa. In the studies and cohorts presented here, osteoporosis prevalence varies by sex, country and area of residence, but is generally higher in African populations, than has previously been appreciated. Risk factors contributing to poorer bone health include HIV, malnutrition and "inflammaging." Reprioritization towards care of ageing populations is urgently required. Equitable access to implementable preventative strategies, diagnostic services, treatments and pathways of care for bone health (for example embedded within HIV services) need now to be recognized and addressed by policy makers.

Diabetes care cascade and associated factors in 10 700 middle-aged adults in four sub-Saharan African countries: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated progression through the care cascade and associated factors for people with diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa to identify attrition stages that may be most appropriate for targeted intervention. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Community-based study in four sub-Saharan African countries. PARTICIPANTS: 10 700 individuals, aged 40-60 years. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the diabetes cascade of care defined as the age-adjusted diabetes prevalence (self-report of diabetes, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7 mmol/L or random plasma glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L) and proportions of those who reported awareness of having diabetes, ever having received treatment for diabetes and those who achieved glycaemic control (FPG <7.2 mmol/L). Secondary outcome measures were factors associated with having diabetes and being aware of the diagnosis. RESULTS: Diabetes prevalence was 5.5% (95% CI 4.4% to 6.5%). Approximately half of those with diabetes were aware (54%; 95% CI 50% to 58%); 73% (95% CI 67% to 79%) of aware individuals reported ever having received treatment. However, only 38% (95% CI 30% to 46%) of those ever having received treatment were adequately controlled. Increasing age (OR 1.1; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1), urban residence (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.6 to 3.5), hypertension (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.5 to 2.4), family history of diabetes (OR 3.9; 95% CI 3.0 to 5.1) and measures of central adiposity were associated with higher odds of having diabetes. Increasing age (OR 1.1; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1), semi-rural residence (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.1 to 5.7), secondary education (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.2 to 4.9), hypertension (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.0 to 2.4) and known HIV positivity (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.2 to 4.4) were associated with greater likelihood of awareness of having diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: There is attrition at each stage of the diabetes care cascade in sub-Saharan Africa. Public health strategies should target improving diagnosis in high-risk individuals and intensifying therapy in individuals treated for diabetes.

Cardiometabolic disease risk factors in pre- and postmenopausal women from four sub-Saharan African countries: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk factors for cardiometabolic disease between pre- and postmenopausal women from four sub-Saharan African countries. STUDY DESIGN: This cross-sectional study included 3609 women (1740 premenopausal and 1869 postmenopausal) from sites in Ghana (Navrongo), Burkina Faso (Nanoro), Kenya (Nairobi), and South Africa (Soweto and Dikgale). Demographic, anthropometric and cardiometabolic variables were compared between pre- and postmenopausal women, within and across sites using multivariable regression analyses. The sites represent populations at different stages of the health transition, with those in Ghana and Burkina Faso being rural, whilst those in Kenya and South Africa are more urbanised. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Anthropometric and cardiometabolic variables. RESULTS: The prevalence rates of risk factors for cardiometabolic disease were higher in South (Soweto and Dikgale) and East (Nairobi) Africa than in West Africa (Nanoro and Navrongo), irrespective of menopausal status. Regression models in combined West African populations demonstrated that postmenopausal women had a larger waist circumference (ß = 1.28 (95 % CI: 0.58; 1.98) cm), log subcutaneous fat (ß =0.15 (0.10; 0.19)), diastolic (ß = 3.04 (1.47; 4.62) mm Hg) and log systolic (ß = 0.04 (0.02; 0.06)) blood pressure, log carotid intima media thickness (ß = 0.03 (0.01; 0.06)), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (ß = 0.14 (0.04; 0.23) mmol/L) and log triglyceride (ß= 0.10 (0.04; 0.16)) levels than premenopausal women. No such differences were observed in the South and East African women. CONCLUSIONS: Menopause-related differences in risk factors for cardiometabolic disease were prominent in West but not East or South African study sites. These novel findings should inform cardiometabolic disease prevention strategies in midlife women specific to rural and urban and peri-urban locations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Improvements in Hypertension Control in the Rural Longitudinal HAALSI Cohort of South African Adults Aged 40 and Older, From 2014 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Over half of the South African adults aged 45 years and older have hypertension but its effective management along the treatment cascade (awareness, treatment, and control) remains poorly understood. METHODS: We compared the prevalence of all stages of the hypertension treatment cascade in the rural HAALSI cohort of older adults at baseline and after four years of follow-up using household surveys and blood pressure data. Hypertension was a mean systolic blood pressure >140 mm Hg or diastolic pressure >90 mm Hg, or current use of anti-hypertension medication. Control was a mean blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg. The effects of sex and age on the treatment cascade at follow-up were assessed. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate prevalence ratios along the treatment cascade at follow-up. RESULTS: Prevalence along the treatment cascade increased from baseline (B) to follow-up (F): awareness (64.4% vs. 83.6%), treatment (49.7% vs. 73.9%), and control (22.8% vs. 41.3%). At both time points, women had higher levels of awareness (B: 70.5% vs. 56.3%; F: 88.1% vs. 76.7%), treatment (B: 55.9% vs. 41.55; F: 79.9% vs. 64.7%), and control (B: 26.5% vs. 17.9%; F: 44.8% vs. 35.7%). Prevalence along the cascade increased linearly with age for everyone. Predictors of awareness included being female, elderly, or visiting a primary health clinic three times in the previous 3 months, and the latter two also predicted hypertension control. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant improvements in awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension from baseline to follow-up and women fared better at all stages, at both time points.

Identifying the prevalence and correlates of multimorbidity in middle-aged men and women: a cross-sectional population-based study in four African countries.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of multimorbidity, to identify which chronic conditions cluster together and to identify factors associated with a greater risk for multimorbidity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). DESIGN: Cross-sectional, multicentre, population-based study. SETTING: Six urban and rural communities in four sub-Saharan African countries. PARTICIPANTS: Men (n=4808) and women (n=5892) between the ages of 40 and 60 years from the AWI-Gen study. MEASURES: Sociodemographic and anthropometric data, and multimorbidity as defined by the presence of two or more of the following conditions: HIV infection, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, asthma, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypertension. RESULTS: Multimorbidity prevalence was higher in women compared with men (47.2% vs 35%), and higher in South African men and women compared with their East and West African counterparts. The most common disease combination at all sites was dyslipidaemia and hypertension, with this combination being more prevalent in South African women than any single disease (25% vs 21.6%). Age and body mass index were associated with a higher risk of multimorbidity in men and women; however, lifestyle correlates such as smoking and physical activity were different between the sexes. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of multimorbidity in middle-aged adults in SSA is of concern, with women currently at higher risk. This prevalence is expected to increase in men, as well as in the East and West African region with the ongoing epidemiological transition. Identifying common disease clusters and correlates of multimorbidity is critical to providing effective interventions.

Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: A prospective longitudinal analysis.

AIMS: We seek to understand the coexisting effects of population aging and a rising burden of diabetes on healthy longevity in South Africa. METHODS: We used longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" (HAALSI) study to explore life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) of adults aged 45 and older with and without diabetes in rural South Africa. We estimated LE and DFLE by diabetes status using Markov-based microsimulation. RESULTS: We find a clear gradient in remaining LE and DFLE based on diabetes status. At age 45, a man without diabetes could expect to live 7.4 [95% CI 3.4 - 11.7] more years than a man with diabetes, and a woman without diabetes could expect to live 3.9 [95% CI: 0.8 - 6.9] more years than a woman with diabetes. Individuals with diabetes lived proportionately more years subject to disability than individuals without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: We find large and important decrements in disability-free aging for people with diabetes in South Africa. This finding should motivate efforts to strengthen prevention and treatment efforts for diabetes and its complications for older adults in this setting.

Significant Improvement in Blood Pressure Levels Among Older Adults With Hypertension in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiologic transition from infectious diseases to cardiovascular diseases. From 2014 to 2019, sociodemographic surveillance was performed in a large cohort in rural South Africa. METHODS: Disease prevalence and incidence were calculated using inverse probability weights. Poisson regression was used to identify disease predictors. The percentage of individuals with controlled (<140/90 mm Hg) versus uncontrolled hypertension was compared between 2014 and 2019. RESULTS: Compared with 2014 (n=5059), study participants in 2019 (n=4176) had similar rates of obesity (mean body mass index, 27.5±10.0 versus 27.0±6.5) but higher smoking (9.1% versus 11.5%) and diabetes (11.1% versus 13.9%). There was no significant increase in hypertension prevalence (58.4% versus 59.8%; age adjusted, 64.3% versus 63.3%), and there was a significant reduction in mean systolic blood pressure (138.0 versus 128.5 mm Hg; P<0.001). Among hypertensive individuals who reported medication use in 2014 and 2019 (n=796), the proportion with controlled hypertension on medication increased from 44.5% to 62.3%. Hypertension incidence was 6.2 per 100 person-years, and age was the only independent predictor. Among normotensive individuals in 2014 (n=2257), 15.2% developed hypertension by 2019, with the majority already controlled on medications by 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The hypertension prevalence and incidence are plateauing in this aging cohort. There was a statistically and clinically significant decline in mean blood pressure and a substantial increase in individuals with controlled hypertension on medication. The prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors did not decrease over time, suggesting that the blood pressure decrease is likely due to increased medication access and adherence, promoted by local health systems.

Estimating population level 24-h sodium excretion using spot urine samples in older adults in rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has introduced regulations to reduce sodium in processed foods. Assessing salt consumption with 24-h urine collection is logistically challenging and expensive. We assess the accuracy of using spot urine samples to estimate 24-h urine sodium (24hrUNa) excretion at the population level in a cohort of older adults in rural South Africa. METHODS: 24hrUNa excretion was measured and compared to that estimated from matched spot urine samples in 399 individuals, aged 40-75 years, from rural Mpumalanga, South Africa. We used the Tanaka, Kawasaki, International Study of Sodium, Potassium, and Blood Pressure (INTERSALT), and Population Mean Volume (PMV) method to predict 24hrUNa at the individual and population level. RESULTS: The population median 24hrUNa excretion from our samples collected in 2017 was 2.6 g (interquartile range: 1.53-4.21) equal to an average daily salt intake of 6.6 g, whereas 65.4% of participants had a salt excretion above the WHO recommended 5 g/day. Estimated population median 24hrUNa derived from the INTERSALT, both with and without potassium, showed a nonsignificant difference of 0.25 g (P = 0.59) and 0.21 g (P = 0.67), respectively. In contrast, the Tanaka, Kawasaki, and PMV formulas were markedly higher than the measured 24hrUNa, with a median difference of 0.51 g (P = 0.004), 0.99 g (P = 0.00), and 1.05 g (P = 0.00) respectively. All formulas however performed poorly when predicting an individual's 24hrUNa. CONCLUSION: In this population, the INTERSALT formulas are a well suited and cost-effective alternative to 24-h urine collection for the evaluation of population median 24hrUNa excretion. This could play an important role for governments and public health agencies in evaluating local salt regulations and identifying at-risk populations.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and associated risk in rural South Africa: a population-based cohort study.

Background: In Africa, true prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown, and associated clinical and genetic risk factors remain understudied. This population-based cohort study aimed to investigate CKD prevalence and associated risk factors in rural South Africa. Methods: A total 2021 adults aged 20-79 years were recruited between 2017-2018 from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga, South Africa. The following were collected: sociodemographic, anthropometric, and clinical data; venous blood samples for creatinine, hepatitis B serology; DNA extraction; spot urine samples for dipstick testing and urine albumin: creatinine ratio (UACR) measurement. Point-of-care screening determined prevalent HIV infection, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. DNA was used to test for apolipoprotein L1 ( APOL1) kidney risk variants. Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria were used to diagnose CKD as low eGFR (<60mL/min/1.73m 2) and /or albuminuria (UACR ≥ 3.0mg/mmol) confirmed with follow up screening after at least three months. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI (creatinine) equation 2009 with no ethnicity adjustment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model CKD risk. Results: The WHO age-adjusted population prevalence of CKD was 6.7% (95% CI 5.4 - 7.9), mostly from persistent albuminuria. In the fully adjusted model, APOL1 high-risk genotypes (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.3 - 3.4); HIV infection (OR 1.8; 1.1 - 2.8); hypertension (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8 - 4.3), and diabetes (OR 4.1; 95% CI 2.0 - 8.4) were risk factors. There was no association with age, sex, level of education, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, or hepatitis B infection. Sensitivity analyses showed that CKD risk factor associations were driven by persistent albuminuria, and not low eGFR. One third of those with CKD did not have any of these risk factors. Conclusions:  In rural South Africa, CKD is prevalent, dominated by persistent albuminuria, and associated with APOL1 high-risk genotypes, hypertension, diabetes, and HIV infection.

Multimorbidity matters in low and middle-income countries.

Multimorbidity is a complex challenge affecting individuals, families, caregivers, and health systems worldwide. The burden of multimorbidity is remarkable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) given the many existing challenges in these settings. Investigating multimorbidity in LMICs poses many challenges including the different conditions studied, and the restriction of data sources to relatively few countries, limiting comparability and representativeness. This has led to a paucity of evidence on multimorbidity prevalence and trends, disease clusters, and health outcomes, particularly longitudinal outcomes. In this paper, based on our experience of investigating multimorbidity in LMICs contexts, we discuss how the structure of the health system does not favor addressing multimorbidity, and how this is amplified by social and economic disparities and, more recently, by the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that generating epidemiologic data around multimorbidity with similar methods and definition is essential to improve comparability, guide clinical decision-making and inform policies, research priorities, and local responses. We call for action on policy to refinance and prioritize primary care and integrated care as the center of multimorbidity.

Short- and long-read metagenomics of urban and rural South African gut microbiomes reveal a transitional composition and undescribed taxa.

Human gut microbiome research focuses on populations living in high-income countries and to a lesser extent, non-urban agriculturalist and hunter-gatherer societies. The scarcity of research between these extremes limits our understanding of how the gut microbiota relates to health and disease in the majority of the world's population. Here, we evaluate gut microbiome composition in transitioning South African populations using short- and long-read sequencing. We analyze stool from adult females living in rural Bushbuckridge (n = 118) or urban Soweto (n = 51) and find that these microbiomes are taxonomically intermediate between those of individuals living in high-income countries and traditional communities. We demonstrate that reference collections are incomplete for characterizing microbiomes of individuals living outside high-income countries, yielding artificially low beta diversity measurements, and generate complete genomes of undescribed taxa, including Treponema, Lentisphaerae, and Succinatimonas. Our results suggest that the gut microbiome of South Africans does not conform to a simple "western-nonwestern" axis and contains undescribed microbial diversity.

Osteoporosis, Rather Than Sarcopenia, Is the Predominant Musculoskeletal Disease in a Rural South African Community Where Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevalence Is High: A Cross-Sectional Study.

The rollout of antiretroviral therapy globally has increased life expectancy across Southern Africa, where 20.6 million people now live with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We aimed to determine the prevalence of age-related osteoporosis and sarcopenia, and investigate the association between HIV, bone mineral density (BMD), muscle strength and lean mass, and gait speed. A cross-sectional community-based study of individuals aged 20-80 years in rural South Africa collected demographic and clinical data, including HIV status, grip strength, gait speed, body composition, and BMD. Sarcopenia was defined by the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People 2 (EWGSOP2) guidelines, and osteoporosis as BMD T-score ≤ -2.5 (if age ≥50 years). The mean ± standard deviation (SD) age of 805 black South African participants was 44.6 ± 14.8 years, 547 (68.2%) were female; 34 (13.2%) were men, and 129 (23.6%) women had HIV, with 88% overall taking anti-retroviral therapy. A femoral neck T-score ≤ -2.5, seen in four of 95 (4.2%) men and 39 of 201 (19.4%) women age ≥50 years, was more common in women with than without HIV (13/35 [37.1%] versus 26/166 [15.7%]; p = 0.003). Although no participant had confirmed sarcopenia, probable sarcopenia affected more men than women (30/258 [11.6%] versus 24/547 [4.4%]; p = .001]. Although appendicular lean mass (ALM)/height2 index was lower in both men and women with HIV, there were no differences in grip strength, gait speed, or probable sarcopenia by HIV status. Older age, female sex, lower ALM/height2 index, slower gait speed, and HIV infection were all independently associated with lower femoral neck BMD. In conclusion, osteoporosis rather than sarcopenia is the common musculoskeletal disease of aging in rural South Africa; older women with HIV may experience greater bone losses than women without HIV. Findings raise concerns over future fracture risk in Southern Africa, where HIV clinics should consider routine bone health assessment, particularly in aging women. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Echocardiographic and Electrocardiographic Abnormalities Among Elderly Adults With Cardiovascular Disease in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing an epidemiological transition fueled by the interaction between infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Our cross-sectional study aimed to characterize the spectrum of abnormalities suggesting end-organ damage on ECG and transthoracic echocardiograms (TTE) among older adults with cardiovascular diseases in rural South Africa. METHODS: The prevalence of ECG and TTE abnormalities was estimated; χ2 analyses and multivariable logistic regressions were performed to test their association with sex, hypertension, and other selected comorbidities. RESULTS: Overall, 729 ECGs and 155 TTEs were completed, with 74 participants completing both. ECG evaluation showed high rates of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH, 36.5%) and T wave abnormalities (13.6%). TTE evaluation showed high rates of concentric LVH (31.6%), with moderate-severe (56.8%) diastolic dysfunction. Participants with hypertension showed more cardiac remodeling on ECG by LVH (45.4% versus 22.1%, P<0.01), and TTE by concentric LVH (42.5% versus 8.2%, P<0.01) and increased left ventricular mass (58.5% versus 20.4%, P<0.0001). In multivariable logistic regression, systolic blood pressure remained significantly associated with LVH on ECG (adjusted odds ratio, 1.03 per mm Hg [95% CI, 1.03-1.04], P<0.0001) and increased left ventricular mass on TTE (adjusted odds ratio, 1.04 per mm Hg [95% CI, 1.01-1.06], P=0.001). Male participants (n=326, 40.2%) were more likely than females (n=484, 59.8%) to show ECG abnormalities like LVH (45% versus 30.8%, P<0.01), whereas females were more likely to show TTE abnormalities like concentric LVH (40.8% versus 13.5%, P<0.01) and increased left ventricular mass (58.4% versus 23.1%, P<0.0001). Similar results were confirmed in multivariable models. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that cardiovascular diseases are widespread in rural South Africa, with a larger burden of hypertensive heart disease than previously appreciated, and define the severity of end-organ damage that is already underway. Local health systems must adapt to face the growing burden of hypertension, as suboptimal rates of hypertension diagnosis and treatment may dramatically increase the heart failure burden.

Multimorbidity and mortality in an older, rural black South African population cohort with high prevalence of HIV findings from the HAALSI Study.

OBJECTIVES: Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in high-income countries. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between multimorbidity (≥2 of the following chronic medical conditions: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, anaemia, HIV, angina, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, alcohol dependence) and all-cause mortality in an older, rural black South African population. We further investigated the relationship between HIV multimorbidity (HIV as part of the multimorbidity cluster) and mortality, while testing for the effect of frailty in all models. DESIGN: Population cohort study. SETTING: Agincourt subdistrict of Mpumalanga province, South Africa. PARTICIPANTS: 4455 individuals (54.7% female), aged ≥40 years (median age 61 years, IQR 52-71) and resident in the study area. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was time to death and the secondary outcome measure was likelihood of death within 2 years of the initial study visit. Mortality was determined during annual population surveillance updates. RESULTS: 3157 individuals (70.9%) had multimorbidity; 29% of these had HIV. In models adjusted for age and sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity was associated with greater risk of death (women: HR 1.72; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.50; men: HR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.95) and greater odds of dying within 2 years (women: OR 2.34; 95% CI: 1.32 to 4.16; men: OR 1.51; 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.24). HIV multimorbidity was associated with increased risk of death compared with non-HIV multimorbidity in men (HR 1.93; 95% CI: 1.05 to 3.54), but was not statistically significant in women (HR 1.85; 95% CI: 0.85 to 4.04); when detectable, HIV viral loads were higher in men (p=0.021). Further adjustment for frailty slightly attenuated the associations between multimorbidity and mortality risk (women: HR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.26; men: HR 1.36; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.82), but slightly increased associations between HIV multimorbidity and mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in this older black South African population. Health systems which currently focus on HIV should be reorganised to optimise identification and management of other prevalent chronic diseases.

Anthropometric cut-offs to identify hyperglycemia in an Afro-Caribbean population: a cross-sectional population-based study from Barbados.

INTRODUCTION: Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) cut-offs associated with hyperglycemia may differ by ethnicity. We investigated the optimal BMI and WC cut-offs for identifying hyperglycemia in the predominantly Afro-Caribbean population of Barbados. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 865 individuals aged ≥25 years without known diabetes or cardiovascular disease was conducted. Hyperglycemia was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥5.6 mmol/L or hemoglobin A1c ≥5.7% (39 mmol/mol). The Youden index was used to identify the optimal cut-offs from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Further ROC analysis and multivariable log binomial regression were used to compare standard and data-derived cut-offs. RESULTS: The prevalence of hyperglycemia was 58.9% (95% CI 54.7% to 63.0%). In women, optimal BMI and WC cut-offs (27 kg/m2 and 87 cm, respectively) performed similarly to standard cut-offs. In men, sensitivities of the optimal cut-offs of BMI ≥24 kg/m2 (72.0%) and WC ≥86 cm (74.0%) were higher than those for standard BMI and WC obesity cut-offs (30.0% and 25%-46%, respectively), although with lower specificity. Hyperglycemia was 70% higher in men above the data-derived WC cut-off (prevalence ratio 95% CI 1.2 to 2.3). CONCLUSIONS: While BMI and WC cut-offs in Afro-Caribbean women approximate international standards, our findings, consistent with other studies, suggest lowering cut-offs in men may be warranted to improve detection of hyperglycemia. Our findings do, however, require replication in a new data set.