Examining the Most Important Risk Factors Predicting Persistent and Distressing Psychotic-like Experiences in Youth.

BACKGROUND: Persistence and distress distinguish more clinically significant psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) from those that are less likely to be associated with impairment and/or need for care. Identifying risk factors that differentiate clinically relevant PLEs early in development is important for improving our understanding of the etiopathogenesis of these experiences. Machine learning analyses examined the most important baseline factors distinguishing persistent distressing PLEs. METHODS: Using Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study PLEs data over three time points (ages 9-13), individuals with persistent distressing PLEs (n=303), transient distressing PLEs (n=374), and demographically matched low-level PLEs groups were created. Random forest classification models were trained to distinguish among persistent distressing vs. low-level PLEs, transient distressing vs. low-level PLEs, and persistent distressing vs. transient distressing PLEs. Models were trained using identified baseline predictors as input features (i.e., cognitive, neural [cortical thickness, resting state functional connectivity (RSFC)], developmental milestone delays, internalizing symptoms, adverse childhood events). RESULTS: The model distinguishing persistent distressing vs. low-level PLEs showed the highest accuracy (test sample accuracy=69.33%; 95% CI:61.29%-76.59%). The most important predictors included internalizing symptoms, adverse childhood events, and cognitive functioning. Models distinguishing persistent vs. transient distressing PLEs generally performed poorly. CONCLUSIONS: Model performance metrics indicated that while most important factors overlapped across models (e.g., internalizing symptoms), adverse childhood events were especially important for predicting persistent distressing PLEs. Machine learning analyses proved useful for distinguishing the most clinically relevant group from the least clinically relevant group but showed limited ability to distinguish among clinically relevant groups that differed in PLE persistence.

Structural deviations of the posterior fossa and the cerebellum and their cognitive links in a neurodevelopmental deletion syndrome.

High-impact genetic variants associated with neurodevelopmental disorders provide biologically-defined entry points for mechanistic investigation. The 3q29 deletion (3q29Del) is one such variant, conferring a 40-100-fold increased risk for schizophrenia, as well as high risk for autism and intellectual disability. However, the mechanisms leading to neurodevelopmental disability remain largely unknown. Here, we report the first in vivo quantitative neuroimaging study in individuals with 3q29Del (N = 24) and neurotypical controls (N = 1608) using structural MRI. Given prior radiology reports of posterior fossa abnormalities in 3q29Del, we focused our investigation on the cerebellum and its tissue-types and lobules. Additionally, we compared the prevalence of cystic/cyst-like malformations of the posterior fossa between 3q29Del and controls and examined the association between neuroanatomical findings and quantitative traits to probe gene-brain-behavior relationships. 3q29Del participants had smaller cerebellar cortex volumes than controls, before and after correction for intracranial volume (ICV). An anterior-posterior gradient emerged in finer grained lobule-based and voxel-wise analyses. 3q29Del participants also had larger cerebellar white matter volumes than controls following ICV-correction and displayed elevated rates of posterior fossa arachnoid cysts and mega cisterna magna findings independent of cerebellar volume. Cerebellar white matter and subregional gray matter volumes were associated with visual-perception and visual-motor integration skills as well as IQ, while cystic/cyst-like malformations yielded no behavioral link. In summary, we find that abnormal development of cerebellar structures may represent neuroimaging-based biomarkers of cognitive and sensorimotor function in 3q29Del, adding to the growing evidence identifying cerebellar pathology as an intersection point between syndromic and idiopathic forms of neurodevelopmental disabilities.

Longitudinal Trajectories of Premorbid Social and Academic Adjustment in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Implications for Conversion.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Social and academic adjustment deteriorate in the years preceding a psychotic disorder diagnosis. Analyses of premorbid adjustment have recently been extended into the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) syndrome to identify risk factors and developmental pathways toward psychotic disorders. Work so far has been at the between-person level, which has constrained analyses of premorbid adjustment, clinical covariates, and conversion to psychosis. STUDY DESIGN: Growth-curve models examined longitudinal trajectories in retrospective reports of premorbid social and academic adjustment from youth at CHR (n = 498). Interaction models tested whether known covariates of premorbid adjustment problems (attenuated negative symptoms, cognition, and childhood trauma) were associated with different premorbid adjustment trajectories in converters vs non-converters (ie, participants who did/did not develop psychotic disorders within 2-year follow-up). STUDY RESULTS: Converters reported poorer social adjustment throughout the premorbid period. Converters who developed psychosis with an affective component reported poorer academic adjustment throughout the premorbid period than those who developed non-affective psychosis. Tentatively, baseline attenuated negative symptoms may have been associated with worsening social adjustment in the premorbid period for non-converters only. Childhood trauma impact was associated with fewer academic functioning problems among converters. Cognition effects did not differ based on conversion status. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid social function is an important factor in risk for conversion to psychosis. Negative symptoms and childhood trauma had different relationships to premorbid functioning in converters vs non-converters. Mechanisms linking symptoms and trauma to functional impairment may be different in converters vs non-converters, suggesting possible new avenues for risk assessment.

The Complex Latent Structure of Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms: Hierarchical and Bifactor Models of SIPS Symptoms Replicated in Two Large Samples at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS) and other assessments of psychosis risk define clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) by the presence of attenuated psychotic symptoms. Despite extensive research on attenuated psychotic symptoms, substantial questions remain about their internal psychometric structure and relationships to comorbid non-psychotic symptoms. STUDY DESIGN: Hierarchical and bifactor models were developed for the SIPS in a large CHR sample (NAPLS-3, N = 787) and confirmed through preregistered replication in an independent sample (NAPLS-2, N = 1043). Criterion validity was tested through relationships with CHR status, comorbid symptoms/diagnoses, functional impairment, demographics, neurocognition, and conversion to psychotic disorders. STUDY RESULTS: Most variance in SIPS items (75%-77%) was attributable to a general factor. Hierarchical and bifactor models included a general factor and five specific/lower-order factors (positive symptoms, eccentricity, avolition, lack of emotion, and deteriorated thought process). CHR participants were elevated on the general factor and the positive symptoms factor. The general factor was associated with depressive symptoms; functional impairment; and mood, anxiety, and schizotypal personality diagnoses. The general factor was the best predictor of psychotic disorders (d ≥ 0.50). Positive symptoms and eccentricity had specific effects on conversion outcomes. The deteriorated thought process was least meaningful/replicable. CONCLUSIONS: Attenuated psychotic symptoms, measured by the SIPS, have a complex hierarchical structure with a strong general factor. The general factor relates to internalizing symptoms and functional impairment, emphasizing the roles of general psychopathological distress/impairment in psychosis risk. Shared symptom variance complicates the interpretation of raw symptom scores. Broad transdiagnostic assessment is warranted to model psychosis risk accurately.

Reduced amplitude and slowed latency of the acoustic startle response in adolescents and adults with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome.

BACKGROUND: 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) is one of the most robust genetic predictors of psychosis and other psychiatric illnesses. In this study, we examined 22q11DS subjects' acoustic startle responses (ASRs), which putatively index psychosis risk. Latency of the ASR is a presumptive marker of neural processing speed and is prolonged (slower) in schizophrenia. ASR measures correlate with increased psychosis risk, depend on glutamate and dopamine receptor signaling, and could serve as translational biomarkers in interventions for groups at high psychosis risk. METHODS: Startle magnitude, latency, and prepulse inhibition were assessed with a standard acoustic startle paradigm in 31 individuals with 22q11.2DS and 32 healthy comparison (HC) subjects. Surface electrodes placed on participants' orbicularis oculi recorded the electromyographic signal in ASR eyeblinks. Individuals without measurable startle blinks in the initial habituation block were classified as non-startlers. RESULTS: Across the startle session, the ASR magnitude was significantly lower in 22q11DS subjects than HCs because a significantly higher proportion of 22q11DS subjects were non-startlers. Latency of the ASR to pulse-alone stimuli was significantly slower in 22q11DS than HC subjects. Due to the overall lower 22q11DS startle response frequency and magnitudes prepulse inhibition could not be analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced magnitude and slow latency of 22q11DS subjects' responses suggest reduced central nervous system and neuronal responsiveness. These findings are consistent with significant cognitive impairments observed in 22q11DS subjects. Further research is needed to untangle the connections among basic neurotransmission dysfunction, psychophysiological responsiveness, and cognitive impairment.

Different learning aberrations relate to delusion-like beliefs with different contents.

The prediction error account of delusions has had success. However, its explanation of delusions with different contents has been lacking. Persecutory delusions and paranoia are the common unfounded beliefs that others have harmful intentions towards us. Other delusions include believing that one's thoughts or actions are under external control, or that events in the world have specific personal meaning. We compare learning on two different cognitive tasks, probabilistic reversal learning (PRL) and Kamin blocking, that have relationships to paranoid and non-paranoid delusion-like beliefs, respectively. We find that Clinical High-Risk status alone does not result in different behavioral results on the PRL task but that an individual's level of paranoia is associated with excessive switching behavior. During the Kamin blocking task, paranoid individuals learned inappropriately about the blocked cue. However, they also had decreased learning about the control cue, suggesting more general learning impairments. Non-paranoid delusion-like belief conviction (but not paranoia) was associated with aberrant learning about the blocked cue but intact learning about the control cue, suggesting specific impairments in learning related to cue combination. We fit task-specific computational models separately to behavioral data to explore how latent parameters vary within individuals between tasks, and how they can explain symptom-specific effects. We find that paranoia is associated with low learning rates on the PRL task as well as the blocking task. Non-paranoid delusion-like belief conviction was instead related to parameters controlling the degree and direction of similarity between cue updating during simultaneous cue presentation. These results suggest that paranoia and other delusion-like beliefs involve dissociable deficits in learning and belief updating, which - given the transdiagnostic status of paranoia - may have differential utility in predicting psychosis.

Plasma complement and coagulation proteins as prognostic factors of negative symptoms: An analysis of the NAPLS 2 and 3 studies.

INTRODUCTION: Negative symptoms impact the quality of life of individuals with psychosis and current treatment options for negative symptoms have limited effectiveness. Previous studies have demonstrated that complement and coagulation pathway protein levels are related to later psychotic experiences, psychotic disorder, and functioning. However, the prognostic relationship between complement and coagulation proteins and negative symptoms is poorly characterised. METHODS: In the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, negative symptoms in 431 individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (mean age: 18.2, SD 3.6; 42.5 % female) were measured at multiple visits over 2 years using the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms. Plasma proteins were quantified at baseline using mass spectrometry. Four factors were derived to represent levels of proteins involved in the activation or regulation of the complement or coagulation systems. The relationships between standardised protein group factors and serial measurements of negative symptoms over time were modelled using generalised least squares regression. Analyses were adjusted for baseline candidate prognostic factors: negative symptoms, positive symptoms, functioning, depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, cannabis use, tobacco use, antipsychotic use, antidepressant use, age, and sex. RESULTS: Clinical and demographic prognostic factors of follow-up negative symptoms included negative, positive, and depressive symptoms, functioning, and age. Adjusting for all candidate prognostic factors, the complement regulators group and the coagulation regulators group were identified as prognostic factors of follow-up negative symptoms (ß: 0.501, 95 % CI: 0.160, 0.842; ß: 0.430, 95 % CI: 0.080, 0.780 respectively. The relationship between complement regulator levels and negative symptoms was also observed in NAPLS2 alone (ß: 0.501, 95 % CI: -0.037, 1.039) and NAPLS3 alone, additionally adjusting for BMI (ß: 0.442, 95 % CI: 0.127, 0.757). CONCLUSION: The results indicate that plasma complement and coagulation regulator levels are prognostic factors of negative symptoms, independent of clinical and demographic prognostic factors. These results suggest complement and coagulation regulator levels could have potential utility in informing treatment decisions for negative symptoms in individuals at risk.

The hierarchical taxonomy of psychopathology in clinical high risk for psychosis: Validation and extension.

The Hierarchical Taxonomy of Psychopathology (HiTOP) consortium's transdiagnostic dimensional model of psychopathology has considerable support; however, this model has been underresearched in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), a population that may advance the model. CHR-P individuals not only have attenuated psychotic symptoms that vary in severity, but also have many comorbid diagnoses and varied clinical outcomes, including disorders with uncertain relations to HiTOP (e.g., obsessive-compulsive disorder). The present study used self-report and interview data from North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-3 (710 CHR, 96 controls) to replicate the HiTOP model and test specific hypotheses regarding disorders with uncertain relations to its dimensions. Additionally, the present study examined the HiTOP model in relation to childhood trauma, declines in social functioning, and development of full psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the HiTOP model's fit was nearly adequate (e.g., comparative fit index = .89), though several theory-relevant modifications were indicated. Additionally, specific tests were conducted to gain a more fine-grained perspective on how disorders with less clear prior evidence were related to the HiTOP model. Notable findings from these analyses include bipolar spectrum disorders relating to the psychosis super spectrum (i.e., .39 loading), and obsessive-compulsive disorder showing a complex pattern of loadings (e.g., internalizing and psychosis). The final model parsimoniously accounted for childhood trauma (e.g., super spectra rs = .22-.32), associations with current functioning, and predicted future conversion to a psychotic disorder (e.g., super spectra R² = .13). Overall, these results inform the HiTOP model and suggest its promise for CHR-P research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Psychosis spectrum symptoms among individuals with schizophrenia-associated copy number variants and evidence of cerebellar correlates of symptom severity.

The 3q29 deletion (3q29Del) is a copy number variant (CNV) with one of the highest effect sizes for psychosis-risk (>40-fold). Systematic research offers avenues for elucidating mechanism; however, compared to CNVs like 22q11.2Del, 3q29Del remains understudied. Emerging findings indicate that posterior fossa abnormalities are common among carriers, but their clinical relevance is unclear. We report the first in-depth evaluation of psychotic symptoms in participants with 3q29Del (N=23), using the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes, and compare this profile to 22q11.2Del (N=31) and healthy controls (N=279). We also explore correlations between psychotic symptoms and posterior fossa abnormalities. Cumulatively, 48% of the 3q29Del sample exhibited a psychotic disorder or attenuated positive symptoms, with a subset meeting criteria for clinical high-risk. 3q29Del had more severe ratings than controls on all domains and only exhibited less severe ratings than 22q11.2Del in negative symptoms; ratings demonstrated select sex differences but no domain-wise correlations with IQ. An inverse relationship was identified between positive symptoms and cerebellar cortex volume in 3q29Del, documenting the first clinically-relevant neuroanatomical connection in this syndrome. Our findings characterize the profile of psychotic symptoms in the largest 3q29Del sample reported to date, contrast with another high-impact CNV, and highlight cerebellar involvement in psychosis-risk.

The association between neighborhood-level social fragmentation and distressing psychotic-like experiences in early adolescence: the moderating role of close friends.

BACKGROUND: Early exposure to neighborhood social fragmentation has been shown to be associated with schizophrenia. The impact of social fragmentation and friendships on distressing psychotic-like experiences (PLE) remains unknown. We investigate the relationships between neighborhood social fragmentation, number of friends, and distressing PLE among early adolescents. METHODS: Data were collected from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study. Generalized linear mixed models tested associations between social fragmentation and distressing PLE, as well as the moderating role of the number of total and close friends. RESULTS: Participants included 11 133 adolescents aged 9 to 10, with 52.3% being males. Greater neighborhood social fragmentation was associated with higher levels of distressing PLE (adjusted ß = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.01-0.09). The number of close but not total friends significantly interacted with social fragmentation to predict distressing PLE (adjusted ß = -0.02; 95% CI: -0.04 to <-0.01). Among those with fewer close friends, the association between neighborhood social fragmentation and distressing PLE was significant (adjusted ß = 0.07; 95% CI: 0.03-0.11). However, among those with more close friends, the association was non-significant (adjusted ß = 0.03; 95% CI: -0.01 to 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: Greater neighborhood social fragmentation is associated with higher levels of distressing PLE, particularly among those with fewer close friends. Further research is needed to disentangle aspects of the interaction between neighborhood characteristics and the quality of social interactions that may contribute to psychosis, which would have implications for developing effective interventions at the individual and community levels.

Developmental perspectives on the origins of psychotic disorders: The need for a transdiagnostic approach.

Research on serious mental disorders, particularly psychosis, has revealed highly variable symptom profiles and developmental trajectories prior to illness-onset. As Dante Cicchetti pointed out decades before the term "transdiagnostic" was widely used, the pathways to psychopathology emerge in a system involving equifinality and multifinality. Like most other psychological disorders, psychosis is associated with multiple domains of risk factors, both genetic and environmental, and there are many transdiagnostic developmental pathways that can lead to psychotic syndromes. In this article, we discuss our current understanding of heterogeneity in the etiology of psychosis and its implications for approaches to conceptualizing etiology and research. We highlight the need for examining risk factors at multiple levels and to increase the emphasis on transdiagnostic developmental trajectories as a key variable associated with etiologic subtypes. This will be increasingly feasible now that large, longitudinal datasets are becoming available and researchers have access to more sophisticated analytic tools, such as machine learning, which can identify more homogenous subtypes with the ultimate goal of enhancing options for treatment and preventive intervention.

Linking enlarged choroid plexus with plasma analyte and structural phenotypes in clinical high risk for psychosis: A multisite neuroimaging study.

BACKGROUND: Choroid plexus (ChP) enlargement exists in first-episode and chronic psychosis, but whether enlargement occurs before psychosis onset is unknown. This study investigated whether ChP volume is enlarged in individuals with clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis and whether these changes are related to clinical, neuroanatomical, and plasma analytes. METHODS: Clinical and neuroimaging data from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study 2 (NAPLS2) was used for analysis. 509 participants (169 controls, 340 CHR) were recruited. Conversion status was determined after 2-years of follow-up, with 36 psychosis converters. The lateral ventricle ChP was manually segmented from baseline scans. A subsample of 31 controls and 53 CHR had plasma analyte and neuroimaging data. RESULTS: Compared to controls, CHR (d = 0.23, p = 0.017) and non-converters (d = 0.22, p = 0.03) demonstrated higher ChP volumes, but not in converters. In CHR, greater ChP volume correlated with lower cortical (r = -0.22, p < 0.001), subcortical gray matter (r = -0.21, p < 0.001), and total white matter volume (r = -0.28,p < 0.001), as well as larger lateral ventricle volume (r = 0.63,p < 0.001). Greater ChP volume correlated with makers functionally associated with the lateral ventricle ChP in CHR [CCL1 (r = -0.30, p = 0.035), ICAM1 (r = 0.33, p = 0.02)], converters [IL1ß (r = 0.66, p = 0.004)], and non-converters [BMP6 (r = -0.96, p < 0.001), CALB1 (r = -0.98, p < 0.001), ICAM1 (r = 0.80, p = 0.003), SELE (r = 0.59, p = 0.026), SHBG (r = 0.99, p < 0.001), TNFRSF10C (r = 0.78, p = 0.001)]. CONCLUSIONS: CHR and non-converters demonstrated significantly larger ChP volumes compared to controls. Enlarged ChP was associated with neuroanatomical alterations and analyte markers functionally associated with the ChP. These findings suggest that the ChP may be a key an important biomarker in CHR.

Proteomic Biomarkers for the Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Multi-cohort Model Development Study.

Psychosis risk prediction is one of the leading challenges in psychiatry. Previous investigations have suggested that plasma proteomic data may be useful in accurately predicting transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR). We hypothesized that an a priori-specified proteomic prediction model would have strong predictive accuracy for psychosis risk and aimed to replicate longitudinal associations between plasma proteins and transition to psychosis. This study used plasma samples from participants in 3 CHR cohorts: the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, and the NEURAPRO randomized control trial (total n = 754). Plasma proteomic data were quantified using mass spectrometry. The primary outcome was transition to psychosis over the study follow-up period. Logistic regression models were internally validated, and optimism-corrected performance metrics derived with a bootstrap procedure. In the overall sample of CHR participants (age: 18.5, SD: 3.9; 51.9% male), 20.4% (n = 154) developed psychosis within 4.4 years. The a priori-specified model showed poor risk-prediction accuracy for the development of psychosis (C-statistic: 0.51 [95% CI: 0.50, 0.59], calibration slope: 0.45). At a group level, Complement C8B, C4B, C5, and leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein 1 (LRG1) were associated with transition to psychosis but did not surpass correction for multiple comparisons. This study did not confirm the findings from a previous proteomic prediction model of transition from CHR to psychosis. Certain complement proteins may be weakly associated with transition at a group level. Previous findings, derived from small samples, should be interpreted with caution.

Improving prediction of psychosis in youth at clinical high-risk: pre-baseline symptom duration and cortical thinning as moderators of the NAPLS2 risk calculator.

BACKGROUND: Clinical implementation of risk calculator models in the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has been hindered by heterogeneous risk distributions across study cohorts which could be attributed to pre-ascertainment illness progression. To examine this, we tested whether the duration of attenuated psychotic symptom (APS) worsening prior to baseline moderated performance of the North American prodrome longitudinal study 2 (NAPLS2) risk calculator. We also examined whether rates of cortical thinning, another marker of illness progression, bolstered clinical prediction models. METHODS: Participants from both the NAPLS2 and NAPLS3 samples were classified as either 'long' or 'short' symptom duration based on time since APS increase prior to baseline. The NAPLS2 risk calculator model was applied to each of these groups. In a subset of NAPLS3 participants who completed follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scans, change in cortical thickness was combined with the individual risk score to predict conversion to psychosis. RESULTS: The risk calculator models achieved similar performance across the combined NAPLS2/NAPLS3 sample [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], the long duration group (AUC = 0.71), and the short duration group (AUC = 0.71). The shorter duration group was younger and had higher baseline APS than the longer duration group. The addition of cortical thinning improved the prediction of conversion significantly for the short duration group (AUC = 0.84), with a moderate improvement in prediction for the longer duration group (AUC = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that early illness progression differs among CHR-P patients, is detectable with both clinical and neuroimaging measures, and could play an essential role in the prediction of clinical outcomes.

Relations of Lifetime Perceived Stress and Basal Cortisol With Hippocampal Volume Among Healthy Adolescents and Those at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach.

BACKGROUND: Hippocampal volume (HV) is sensitive to environmental influences. Under normative conditions in humans, HV increases linearly into childhood and asymptotes in early adulthood. Studies of humans and nonhuman animals have provided evidence of inverse relationships between several measures of stress and HV. METHODS: Using structural equation modeling, this study aimed to characterize the relationships of age, basal cortisol, biological sex, and lifetime perceived stress with bilateral HV in a sample of healthy adolescents and adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) (N = 571, 43% female; age range = 12-19.9 years). This sample included 469 individuals at CHR-P and 102 healthy comparison participants from the combined baseline cohorts of the second and third NAPLS (North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study). RESULTS: A structural model that constrained the individual effects of basal cortisol and perceived stress to single path coefficients, and freely estimated the effects of age and biological sex in group models, optimized model fit and parsimony relative to other candidate models. Significant inverse relationships between basal cortisol and bilateral HV were observed in adolescents at CHR-P and healthy comparison participants. Significant sex differences in bilateral HV were also observed, with females demonstrating smaller HV than males in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Multigroup structural equation modeling revealed heterogeneity in the relationships of age and biological sex with basal cortisol, lifetime perceived stress, and bilateral HV in individuals at CHR-P and healthy comparison participants. Moreover, the findings support previous literature indicating that elevated basal cortisol is a nonspecific risk factor for reduced HV.

Hippocampal Connectivity with the Default Mode Network is Linked to Hippocampal Volume in the Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Syndrome and Healthy Individuals.

Reduced hippocampal volume (HV) is an established brain morphological feature of psychiatric conditions. HV is associated with brain connectivity in humans and non-human animals and altered connectivity is associated with risk for psychiatric illness. Associations between HV and connectivity remain poorly characterized in humans, and especially in phases of psychiatric illness that precede disease onset. This study examined associations between HV and hippocampal functional connectivity (FC) during rest in 141 healthy controls and 248 individuals at-risk for psychosis. Significant inverse associations between HV and hippocampal FC with the inferior parietal lobe (IPL) and thalamus were observed. Select associations between hippocampal FC and HV were moderated by diagnostic group. Significant moderation results shifted from implicating the IPL to the temporal pole after excluding participants on antipsychotic medication. Considered together, this work implicates hippocampal FC with the temporoparietal junction, within a specialized subsystem of the default mode network, as sensitive to HV.

Comparing a Computerized Digit Symbol Test to a Pen-and-Paper Classic.

Background and Hypothesis: Processing speed dysfunction is a core feature of psychosis and predictive of conversion in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. Although traditionally measured with pen-and-paper tasks, computerized digit symbol tasks are needed to meet the increasing demand for remote assessments. Therefore we: (1) assessed the relationship between traditional and computerized processing speed measurements; (2) compared effect sizes of impairment for progressive and persistent subgroups of CHR individuals on these tasks; and (3) explored causes contributing to task performance differences. Study Design: Participants included 92 CHR individuals and 60 healthy controls who completed clinical interviews, the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia Symbol Coding test, the computerized TestMyBrain Digit Symbol Matching Test, a finger-tapping task, and a self-reported motor abilities measure. Correlations, Hedges' g, and linear models were utilized, respectively, to achieve the above aims. Study Results: Task performance was strongly correlated (r = 0.505). A similar degree of impairment was seen between progressive (g = -0.541) and persistent (g = -0.417) groups on the paper version. The computerized task uniquely identified impairment for progressive individuals (g = -477), as the persistent group performed similarly to controls (g = -0.184). Motor abilities were related to the computerized version, but the paper version was more related to symptoms and psychosis risk level. Conclusions: The paper symbol coding task measures impairment throughout the CHR state, while the computerized version only identifies impairment in those with worsening symptomatology. These results may be reflective of sensitivity differences, an artifact of existing subgroups, or evidence of mechanistic differences.

Dynamic Prediction of Outcomes for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Joint Modeling Approach.

Importance: Leveraging the dynamic nature of clinical variables in the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has the potential to significantly improve the performance of outcome prediction models. Objective: To improve performance of prediction models and elucidate dynamic clinical profiles using joint modeling to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were collected as part of the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 3), which is a 9-site prospective longitudinal study. Participants were individuals aged 12 to 30 years who met criteria for a psychosis-risk syndrome. Clinical, neurocognitive, and demographic variables were collected at baseline and at multiple follow-up visits, beginning at 2 months and up to 24 months. An initial feature selection process identified longitudinal clinical variables that showed differential change for each outcome group across 2 months. With these variables, a joint modeling framework was used to estimate the likelihood of eventual outcomes. Models were developed and tested in a 10-fold cross-validation framework. Clinical data were collected between February 2015 and November 2018, and data were analyzed from February 2022 to December 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prediction models were built to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Participants met criteria for conversion if their positive symptoms reached the fully psychotic range and for symptom remission if they were subprodromal on the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms for a duration of 6 months or more. Results: Of 488 included NAPLS 3 participants, 232 (47.5%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 18.2 (3.4) years. Joint models achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting conversion (balanced accuracy [BAC], 0.91) and remission (BAC, 0.99) compared with baseline models (conversion: BAC, 0.65; remission: BAC, 0.60). Clinical variables that showed differential change between outcome groups across a 2-month span, including measures of symptom severity and aspects of functioning, were also identified. Further, intra-individual risks for each outcome were more negatively correlated when using joint models (r = -0.92; P < .001) compared with baseline models (r = -0.50; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, joint models significantly outperformed baseline models in predicting both conversion and remission, demonstrating that monitoring short-term clinical change may help to parse heterogeneous dynamic clinical trajectories in a CHR-P population. These findings could inform additional study of targeted treatment selection and could move the field closer to clinical implementation of prediction models.

Association of Childhood Area-Level Ethnic Density and Psychosis Risk Among Ethnoracial Minoritized Individuals in the US.

Importance: The protective ethnic density effect hypothesis, which suggests that minoritized individuals who grow up in neighborhoods with a high proportion of ethnoracial minoritized groups are protected from the effects of perceived discrimination, has not been examined among individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR-P). This level of examination may help identify intervention targets for preventing psychosis among high-risk individuals. Objective: To examine the association between area-level ethnic density during childhood, perceived discrimination, and psychosis risk outcomes among ethnoracial minoritized individuals with CHR-P. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were collected as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-2 (NAPLS 2) between November 2008 and March 2013. Participants included ethnoracial minoritized youth with CHR-P. Area-level ethnoracial minoritized density pertained to the percent of ethnoracial minoritized individuals within the participant's county during childhood. Generalized mixed-effects models with random intercepts for participants, NAPLS 2 site, and county estimated the associations between area-level ethnic density and the risk of psychosis risk outcomes. Self-reported experience of discrimination was assessed. Mediation analyses computed the indirect association of perceived discrimination in the prospective correlation between ethnic density and psychosis risk outcomes. Analyses took place between December 2021 and June 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Psychosis risk outcomes included remission, symptomatic, progression, and conversion to psychosis and were assessed throughout 24-month follow-up. Results: Of 193 individuals, the mean (SD) age was 17.5 (3.4) years and 113 males (58.5%) were included. Participants self-identified as Asian (29 [15.0%]), Black (57 [29.0%]), Hispanic (any race; 87 [45.0%]), or other (First Nations, Middle Eastern, and interracial individuals; 20 [10.4%]). Greater area-level minoritized density was associated with a lower likelihood of remaining symptomatic (relative risk [RR], 0.54 [95% CI, 0.33-0.89]) and having progressively worsening symptoms (RR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.32-0.86]) compared with being in remission. More perceived discrimination was associated with a higher risk of staying symptomatic (RR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.09-1.88]) and progressively worsening (RR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.02-1.78]) compared with being in remission. Perceived discrimination significantly mediated 21.7% (95% CI, 4.1%-67.0%; P = .02) of the association between area-level minoritized density and the likelihood of being in remission. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that among ethnoracial minority youth with CHR-P, growing up in communities with a greater proportion of ethnically minoritized individuals was associated with remission of psychosis risk symptoms partly through lower levels of perceived discrimination. Understanding how the social environment impacts early psychosis risk may help develop effective interventions to prevent psychosis, especially for vulnerable minoritized youth.