Associating with kin selects for disease resistance and against tolerance.

Behavioural and physiological resistance are key to slowing epidemic spread. We explore the evolutionary and epidemic consequences of their different costs for the evolution of tolerance that trades off with resistance. Behavioural resistance affects social cohesion, with associated group-level costs, while the cost of physiological resistance accrues only to the individual. Further, resistance, and the associated reduction in transmission, benefit susceptible hosts directly, whereas infected hosts only benefit indirectly, by reducing transmission to kin. We therefore model the coevolution of transmission-reducing resistance expressed in susceptible hosts with resistance expressed in infected hosts, as a function of kin association, and analyse the effect on population-level outcomes. Using parameter values for guppies, Poecilia reticulata, and their gyrodactylid parasites, we find that: (1) either susceptible or infected hosts should invest heavily in resistance, but not both; (2) kin association drives investment in physiological resistance more strongly than in behavioural resistance; and (3) even weak levels of kin association can favour altruistic infected hosts that invest heavily in resistance (versus selfish tolerance), eliminating parasites. Overall, our finding that weak kin association affects the coevolution of infected and susceptible investment in both behavioural and physiological resistance suggests that kin selection may affect disease dynamics across systems.

"Resistance Is Futile": Weaker Selection for Resistance by Abundant Parasites Increases Prevalence and Depresses Host Density.

AbstractTheory often predicts that host populations should evolve greater resistance when parasites become abundant. Furthermore, that evolutionary response could ameliorate declines in host populations during epidemics. Here, we argue for an update: when all host genotypes become sufficiently infected, higher parasite abundance can select for lower resistance because its cost exceeds its benefit. We illustrate such a "resistance is futile" outcome with mathematical and empirical approaches. First, we analyzed an eco-evolutionary model of parasites, hosts, and hosts' resources. We determined eco-evolutionary outcomes for prevalence, host density, and resistance (mathematically, "transmission rate") along ecological and trait gradients that alter parasite abundance. With high enough parasite abundance, hosts evolve lower resistance, amplifying infection prevalence and decreasing host density. In support of these results, a higher supply of nutrients drove larger epidemics of survival-reducing fungal parasites in a mesocosm experiment. In two-genotype treatments, zooplankton hosts evolved less resistance under high-nutrient conditions than under low-nutrient conditions. Less resistance, in turn, was associated with higher infection prevalence and lower host density. Finally, in an analysis of naturally occurring epidemics, we found a broad, bimodal distribution of epidemic sizes consistent with the resistance is futile prediction of the eco-evolutionary model. Together, the model and experiment, supplemented by the field pattern, support predictions that drivers of high parasite abundance can lead to the evolution of lower resistance. Hence, under certain conditions, the most fit strategy for individual hosts exacerbates prevalence and depresses host populations.

Predation shifts coevolution toward higher host contact rate and parasite virulence.

Hosts can avoid parasites (and pathogens) by reducing social contact, but such isolation may carry costs, e.g. increased vulnerability to predators. Thus, many predator-host-parasite systems confront hosts with a trade-off between predation and parasitism. Parasites, meanwhile, evolve higher virulence in response to increased host sociality and consequently, increased multiple infections. How does predation shift coevolution of host behaviour and parasite virulence? What if predators are selective, i.e. predators disproportionately capture the sickest hosts? We answer these questions with an eco-coevolutionary model parametrized for a Trinidadian guppy-Gyrodactylus spp. system. Here, increased predation drives host coevolution of higher grouping, which selects for higher virulence. Additionally, higher predator selectivity drives the contact rate higher and virulence lower. Finally, we show how predation and selectivity can have very different impacts on host density and prevalence depending on whether hosts or parasites evolve, or both. For example, higher predator selectivity led to lower prevalence with no evolution or only parasite evolution but higher prevalence with host evolution or coevolution. These findings inform our understanding of diverse systems in which host behavioural responses to predation may lead to increased prevalence and virulence of parasites.

Shoaling guppies evade predation but have deadlier parasites.

Parasites exploit hosts to replicate and transmit, but overexploitation kills both host and parasite. Predators may shift this cost-benefit balance by consuming infected hosts or changing host behaviour, but the strength of these effects remains unclear. Here we use field and lab data on Trinidadian guppies and their Gyrodactylus spp. parasites to show how differential predation pressure influences parasite virulence and transmission. We use an experimentally demonstrated virulence-transmission trade-off to parametrize a mathematical model in which host shoaling (as a means of anti-predator defence), increases contact rates and selects for higher virulence. Then we validate model predictions by collecting parasites from wild, Trinidadian populations; parasites from high-predation populations were more virulent in common gardens than those from low-predation populations. Broadly, our results indicate that reduced social contact selects against parasite virulence.