Relationship between HLA genetic variations, COVID-19 vaccine antibody response, and risk of breakthrough outcomes.

The rapid global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, with over a billion doses administered, has been unprecedented. However, in comparison to most identified clinical determinants, the implications of individual genetic factors on antibody responses post-COVID-19 vaccination for breakthrough outcomes remain elusive. Here, we conducted a population-based study including 357,806 vaccinated participants with high-resolution HLA genotyping data, and a subset of 175,000 with antibody serology test results. We confirmed prior findings that single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with antibody response are predominantly located in the Major Histocompatibility Complex region, with the expansive HLA-DQB1*06 gene alleles linked to improved antibody responses. However, our results did not support the claim that this mutation alone can significantly reduce COVID-19 risk in the general population. In addition, we discovered and validated six HLA alleles (A*03:01, C*16:01, DQA1*01:02, DQA1*01:01, DRB3*01:01, and DPB1*10:01) that independently influence antibody responses and demonstrated a combined effect across HLA genes on the risk of breakthrough COVID-19 outcomes. Lastly, we estimated that COVID-19 vaccine-induced antibody positivity provides approximately 20% protection against infection and 50% protection against severity. These findings have immediate implications for functional studies on HLA molecules and can inform future personalised vaccination strategies.

Protein-truncating variants in BSN are associated with severe adult-onset obesity, type 2 diabetes and fatty liver disease.

Obesity is a major risk factor for many common diseases and has a substantial heritable component. To identify new genetic determinants, we performed exome-sequence analyses for adult body mass index (BMI) in up to 587,027 individuals. We identified rare loss-of-function variants in two genes (BSN and APBA1) with effects substantially larger than those of well-established obesity genes such as MC4R. In contrast to most other obesity-related genes, rare variants in BSN and APBA1 were not associated with normal variation in childhood adiposity. Furthermore, BSN protein-truncating variants (PTVs) magnified the influence of common genetic variants associated with BMI, with a common variant polygenic score exhibiting an effect twice as large in BSN PTV carriers than in noncarriers. Finally, we explored the plasma proteomic signatures of BSN PTV carriers as well as the functional consequences of BSN deletion in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived hypothalamic neurons. Collectively, our findings implicate degenerative processes in synaptic function in the etiology of adult-onset obesity.

Relationship of fat mass ratio - a biomarker for lipodystrophy - with cardiometabolic traits.

Familial partial lipodystrophy (FPLD) is a heterogenous group of syndromes associated with a high prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases. Prior work has proposed DEXA-derived fat mass ratio (FMR) - defined as trunk fat percentage (trunk fat %) divided by leg fat percentage (leg fat %) - as a biomarker of FPLD, but this metric has not previously been characterized in large cohort studies. We set out to (1) understand the cardiometabolic burden of individuals with high FMR in up to 40,796 participants in the UK Biobank and 9,408 participants in the Fenland study, (2) characterize the common variant genetic underpinnings of FMR, and (3) build and test a polygenic predictor for FMR. Participants with high FMR were at higher risk for type 2 diabetes (OR = 2.30, p = 3.5 × 10-41) and MASLD/MASH (OR = 2.55, p = 4.9 × 10-7) in UK Biobank, and had higher fasting insulin (difference = +19.8 pmol/L, p = 5.7 × 10-36) and fasting triglycerides (difference = +36.1 mg/dL, p = 2.5 × 10-28) in the Fenland Study. Across FMR and its component traits, 61 conditionally independent variant-trait pairs were discovered, including 13 newly-identified pairs. A polygenic score for FMR was associated with increased risk of cardiometabolic diseases. This work establishes the cardiometabolic significance of high FMR - a biomarker for FPLD - in two large cohort studies and may prove useful in increasing diagnosis rates of patients with metabolically unhealthy fat distribution to enable treatment or a preventive therapy.

The relationship of within-individual and between-individual variation in mental health with bodyweight: An exploratory longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Poor mental health is associated with obesity, but existing studies are either cross-sectional or have long time periods between measurements of mental health and weight. It is, therefore, unclear how small fluctuations in mental wellbeing within individuals predict bodyweight over short time periods, e.g. within the next month. Studying this could identify modifiable determinants of weight changes and highlight opportunities for early intervention. METHODS: 2,133 UK adults from a population-based cohort completed monthly mental health and weight measurements using a mobile app over a period of 6-9 months. We used random intercept regression models to examine longitudinal associations of depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms and stress with subsequent weight. In sub-group analyses, we included interaction terms of mental health variables with baseline characteristics. Mental health variables were split into "between-individual" measurements (= the participant's median score across all timepoints) and "within-individual" measurements (at each timepoint, the difference between the participant's current score and their median). RESULTS: Within-individual variation in depressive symptoms predicted subsequent weight (0.045kg per unit of depressive symptom severity, 95% CI 0.021-0.069). We found evidence of a moderation effect of baseline BMI on the association between within-individual fluctuation in depressive symptoms and subsequent weight: The association was only apparent in those with overweight/obesity, and it was stronger in those with obesity than those with overweight (BMI<25kg/m2: 0.011kg per unit of depressive symptom severity [95% CI -0.017 to 0.039]; BMI 25-29.9kg/m2: 0.052kg per unit of depressive symptom severity [95%CI 0.010-0.094kg]; BMI≥30kg/m2: 0.071kg per unit of depressive symptom severity [95%CI 0.013-0.129kg]). We found no evidence for other interactions, associations of stress and anxiety with weight, or for a reverse direction of association. CONCLUSION: In this exploratory study, individuals with overweight or obesity were more vulnerable to weight gain following higher-than-usual (for that individual) depressive symptoms than individuals with a BMI<25kg/m2.

The optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function defined by the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Reference intervals of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) are statistically defined by the 2·5-97·5th percentiles, without accounting for potential risk of clinical outcomes. We aimed to define the optimal healthy ranges of TSH and FT4 based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. METHODS: This systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis identified eligible prospective cohorts through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration, supplemented with a systematic search via Embase, MEDLINE (Ovid), Web of science, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 2011, to Feb 12, 2017 with an updated search to Oct 13, 2022 (cohorts found in the second search were not included in the IPD). We included cohorts that collected TSH or FT4, and cardiovascular outcomes or mortality for adults (aged ≥18 years). We excluded cohorts that included solely pregnant women, individuals with overt thyroid diseases, and individuals with cardiovascular disease. We contacted the study investigators of eligible cohorts to provide IPD on demographics, TSH, FT4, thyroid peroxidase antibodies, history of cardiovascular disease and risk factors, medication use, cardiovascular disease events, cardiovascular disease mortality, and all-cause mortality. The primary outcome was a composite outcome including cardiovascular disease events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were the separate assessment of cardiovascular disease events, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality. We performed one-step (cohort-stratified Cox models) and two-step (random-effects models) meta-analyses adjusting for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017057576. FINDINGS: We identified 3935 studies, of which 53 cohorts fulfilled the inclusion criteria and 26 cohorts agreed to participate. We included IPD on 134 346 participants with a median age of 59 years (range 18-106) at baseline. There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with the composite outcome and secondary outcomes, with the 20th (median 13·5 pmol/L [IQR 11·2-13·9]) to 40th percentiles (median 14·8 pmol/L [12·3-15·0]) conveying the lowest risk. Compared with the 20-40th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for FT4 in the 80-100th percentiles was 1·20 (95% CI 1·11-1·31) for the composite outcome, 1·34 (1·20-1·49) for all-cause mortality, 1·57 (1·31-1·89) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 1·22 (1·11-1·33) for cardiovascular disease events. In individuals aged 70 years and older, the 10-year absolute risk of composite outcome increased over 5% for women with FT4 greater than the 85th percentile (median 17·6 pmol/L [IQR 15·0-18·3]), and men with FT4 greater than the 75th percentile (16·7 pmol/L [14·0-17·4]). Non-linear associations were identified for TSH, with the 60th (median 1·90 mIU/L [IQR 1·68-2·25]) to 80th percentiles (2·90 mIU/L [2·41-3·32]) associated with the lowest risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Compared with the 60-80th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR of TSH in the 0-20th percentiles was 1·07 (95% CI 1·02-1·12) for the composite outcome, 1·09 (1·05-1·14) for all-cause mortality, and 1·07 (0·99-1·16) for cardiovascular disease mortality. INTERPRETATION: There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with cardiovascular disease and mortality. Low concentrations of TSH were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The 20-40th percentiles of FT4 and the 60-80th percentiles of TSH could represent the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality, with more than 5% increase of 10-year composite risk identified for FT4 greater than the 85th percentile in women and men older than 70 years. We propose a feasible approach to establish the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function, allowing for better identification of individuals with a higher risk of thyroid-related outcomes. FUNDING: None.

Associations between change in physical activity and sedentary time and health-related quality of life in older english adults: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study.

BACKGROUND: No previous studies have examined the associations between changes in objectively-measured physical behaviours with follow-up QoL in older adults. Based on cross-sectional evidence, it is biologically plausible that such associations exist. If so, this bolsters the case for the commissioning of activity interventions and for including QoL as an outcome in trials of such interventions. METHODS: We assessed physical behaviours (total physical activity, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), light physical activity, total sedentary time and prolonged sedentary bout time) for 7 days using hip-worn accelerometers at baseline (2006-2011) and follow-up (2012-2016) and health-related quality-of-life (QoL) using EQ-5D questionnaires at follow-up in 1433 participants (≥ 60 years) of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-Norfolk study. The EQ-5D summary score was used, with 0 as the worst to 1 as best perceived quality-of-life. We evaluated the prospective associations of baseline physical behaviours with follow-up QoL, and of changes in behaviours with follow-up QoL using multi-level regression. RESULTS: On average, MVPA decreased by 4.0 min/day/year (SD 8.3) for men and 4.0 min/day/year for women (SD 12.0) between baseline and follow-up. Total sedentary time increased by an average 5.5 min/day/yr (SD 16.0) for men and 6.4 min/day/yr (SD 15.0) for women between baseline and follow-up. Mean (SD) follow-up time was 5.8 (1.8) years. We found that higher baseline MVPA and lower sedentary time was associated with higher subsequent QoL (e.g. 1 h/day greater baseline MVPA was associated with 0.02 higher EQ-5D score, 95% CI 0.06, 0.36). More pronounced declines in activity were associated with worse Hr-QoL (0.005 (95% CI 0.003, 0.008) lower EQ-5D per min/day/yr decrease in MVPA). Increases in sedentary behaviours were also associated with poorer QoL (0.002 lower EQ-5D, 95% CI -0.003, -0.0007 per hour/day/yr increase in total sedentary time). CONCLUSIONS: Promotion of physical activity and limiting sedentary time among older adults may improve quality-of-life, and therefore this relationship ought to be included in future cost effectiveness analyses so that greater commissioning of activity interventions can be considered.

Resting heart rate is a population-level biomarker of cardiorespiratory fitness: The Fenland Study.

INTRODUCTION: Few large studies have evaluated the relationship between resting heart rate (RHR) and cardiorespiratory fitness. Here we examine cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships between RHR and fitness, explore factors that influence these relationships, and demonstrate the utility of RHR for remote population monitoring. METHODS: In cross-sectional analyses (The UK Fenland Study: 5,722 women, 5,143 men, aged 29-65y), we measured RHR (beats per min, bpm) while seated, supine, and during sleep. Fitness was estimated as maximal oxygen consumption (ml⋅min-1⋅kg-1) from an exercise test. Associations between RHR and fitness were evaluated while adjusting for age, sex, adiposity, and physical activity. In longitudinal analyses (6,589 participant subsample), we re-assessed RHR and fitness after a median of 6 years and evaluated the association between within-person change in RHR and fitness. During the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic, we used a smartphone application to remotely and serially measure RHR (1,914 participant subsample, August 2020 to April 2021) and examined differences in RHR dynamics by pre-pandemic fitness level. RESULTS: Mean RHR while seated, supine, and during sleep was 67, 64, and 57 bpm. Age-adjusted associations (beta coefficients) between RHR and fitness were -0.26, -0.29, and -0.21 ml⋅kg-1⋅beat-1 in women and -0.27, -0.31, and -0.19 ml⋅kg-1⋅beat-1 in men. Adjustment for adiposity and physical activity attenuated the RHR-to-fitness relationship by 10% and 50%, respectively. Longitudinally, a 1-bpm increase in supine RHR was associated with a 0.23 ml⋅min-1⋅kg-1 decrease in fitness. During the pandemic, RHR increased in those with low pre-pandemic fitness but was stable in others. CONCLUSIONS: RHR is a valid population-level biomarker of cardiorespiratory fitness. Physical activity and adiposity attenuate the relationship between RHR and fitness.

Lowering of Circulating Sclerostin May Increase Risk of Atherosclerosis and Its Risk Factors: Evidence From a Genome-Wide Association Meta-Analysis Followed by Mendelian Randomization.

OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to establish the causal effects of lowering sclerostin, target of the antiosteoporosis drug romosozumab, on atherosclerosis and its risk factors. METHODS: A genome-wide association study meta-analysis was performed of circulating sclerostin levels in 33,961 European individuals. Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to predict the causal effects of sclerostin lowering on 15 atherosclerosis-related diseases and risk factors. RESULTS: We found that 18 conditionally independent variants were associated with circulating sclerostin. Of these, 1 cis signal in SOST and 3 trans signals in B4GALNT3, RIN3, and SERPINA1 regions showed directionally opposite signals for sclerostin levels and estimated bone mineral density. Variants with these 4 regions were selected as genetic instruments. MR using 5 correlated cis-SNPs suggested that lower sclerostin increased the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) (odds ratio [OR] 1.32 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.03-1.69]) and myocardial infarction (MI) (OR 1.35 [95% CI 1.01-1.79]); sclerostin lowering was also suggested to increase the extent of coronary artery calcification (CAC) (ß = 0.24 [95% CI 0.02-0.45]). MR using both cis and trans instruments suggested that lower sclerostin increased hypertension risk (OR 1.09 [95% CI 1.04-1.15]), but otherwise had attenuated effects. CONCLUSION: This study provides genetic evidence to suggest that lower levels of sclerostin may increase the risk of hypertension, type 2 DM, MI, and the extent of CAC. Taken together, these findings underscore the requirement for strategies to mitigate potential adverse effects of romosozumab treatment on atherosclerosis and its related risk factors.

Descriptive Epidemiology of Cardiorespiratory Fitness in UK Adults: The Fenland Study.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is rarely measured in population studies. Most studies of CRF do not examine differences by population subgroups or seasonal trends. We examined how estimated CRF levels vary by anthropometric, sociodemographic, and behavioral characteristics in a population-based cohort of UK adults (the Fenland Study). METHODS: We used a validated submaximal exercise test to obtain CRF estimates (CRF estimated ) in 5976 women and 5316 men, residing in the East of England. CRF estimated was defined as estimated maximal oxygen consumption per kilogram total body mass (V̇O 2 max tbm ) and fat-free mass (V̇O 2 max ffm ). Descriptive statistics were computed across anthropometric and sociodemographic characteristics, and across the year. Progressive multivariable analyses were performed to examine associations with physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Mean ± SD V̇O 2 max tbm was lower in women (35.2 ± 7.5 mL·min -1 ·kg -1 ) than men (41.7 ± 7.3 mL·min -1 ·kg -1 ) but V̇O 2 max ffm was similar (women: 59.2 ± 11.6 mL·min -1 ·kg -1 ; men: 62.0 ± 10.3 mL·min -1 ·kg -1 ). CRF estimated was inversely associated with age but not after adjustment for PAEE. People in more physically demanding jobs were fitter compared with those in sedentary jobs, but this association was attenuated in women and reversed in men after adjustment for total PAEE. Physical activity energy expenditure and BMI were positively associated with CRF estimated at all levels of adjustment when expressed relative to fat-free mass. CRF estimated was 4% higher in summer than in winter among women, but did not differ by season among men. CONCLUSIONS: CRF estimated was inversely associated with age but less steeply than anticipated, suggesting older generations are comparatively fitter than younger generations. Physical activity energy expenditure and BMI were stronger determinants of the variance in CRF estimated than other characteristic including age. This emphasizes the importance of modifiable physical activity behaviors in public health interventions.

Quantifying the Relationship Between Physical Activity Energy Expenditure and Incident Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study of Device-Measured Activity in 90,096 Adults.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between accelerometer-derived physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a cohort of middle-aged adults and within subgroups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were from 90,096 UK Biobank participants without prevalent diabetes (mean 62 years of age; 57% women) who wore a wrist accelerometer for 7 days. PAEE was derived from wrist acceleration using a population-specific method validated against doubly labeled water. Logistic regressions were used to assess associations between PAEE, its underlying intensity, and incident T2D, ascertained using hospital episode and mortality data up to November 2020. Models were progressively adjusted for demographic, lifestyle factors, and BMI. RESULTS: The association between PAEE and T2D was approximately linear (n = 2,018 events). We observed 19% (95% CI 17-21) lower odds of T2D per 5 kJ · kg-1 · day-1 in PAEE without adjustment for BMI and 11% (9-13) with BMI adjustment. The association was stronger in men than women and weaker in those with obesity and higher genetic susceptibility to obesity. There was no evidence of effect modification by genetic susceptibility to T2D or insulin resistance. For a given level of PAEE, odds of T2D were lower among those engaging in more moderate-to-vigorous activity. CONCLUSIONS: There was a strong linear relationship between PAEE and incident T2D. A difference in PAEE equivalent to an additional daily 20-min brisk walk was associated with 19% lower odds of T2D. The association was broadly similar across population subgroups, supporting physical activity for diabetes prevention in the whole population.

Effectiveness of digital and remote provision of the Healthier You: NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme during the COVID-19 pandemic.

AIMS: To assess weight change in the Healthier You: NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP) delivered via video conferencing (remote) sessions or delivered via specific digital interventions through apps or websites, during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to group-based face-to-face interventions, pre-pandemic. METHODS: Prospectively collected national service-level data relating to individuals with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0%-6.4%) or fasting plasma glucose 5.5-6.9 mmol/L) referred to the NHS DPP from June 2016 to March 2022. RESULTS: Between March 2020 and March 2022, 335,961 people were referred to the programme and were offered a choice of remote or digital intervention. This was preceded by 556,793 people referred to the face-to-face programme between June 2016 and February 2022. Uptakes to intervention sessions were 47% for those offered a choice and 39% for face-to-face. Remote and digital participants were significantly younger (60 and 56 vs. 65 years) and heavier (86.1 kg and 91.0 kg vs. 84.1 kg) compared to face-to-face. Weight change was assessed for 42,407 remote, 7699 digital and 97,205 face-to-face participants with sufficient time to have finished the programme and no missing data. Mean weight losses for participants attending at least one intervention session were: 2.40 (2.36-2.44) kg, 2.59 (2.49-2.68) kg and 2.01 (1.98-2.04) kg for remote, digital and face-to-face participants respectively. Corresponding mean weight losses for those who completed the programme were: 3.24 (3.19-3.30) kg, 4.76 (4.60-4.92) kg and 3.04 (3.00-3.07) kg. There were no significant differences in weight change between interventions by ethnicity and deprivation. CONCLUSIONS: Weight losses achieved through remote and digital interventions were greater than those previously achieved through face-to-face interventions, without evidence of exacerbation of health inequalities.

Bidirectional associations of accelerometer-assessed physical activity and sedentary time with physical function among older English adults: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study.

To develop healthy ageing interventions, longitudinal associations between objectively assessed physical behaviours and physical function need to be better understood. We assessed associations between accelerometer-assessed total physical activity (PA), moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), light physical activity (LPA), sedentary time and prolonged sedentary bout time, and clinically assessed physical function (grip strength, usual walking speed (UWS), chair stand speed) at two time-points in 3188 participants (≥ 60 years) of the EPIC-Norfolk study. Bidirectional associations were assessed using multivariable linear regression. Over an average of 6.1 years, baseline physical behaviours (greater total PA, MVPA and LPA, and less sedentary time) were associated with better subsequent walking and chair stand speed. Better baseline physical function was associated with better follow-up physical behaviours. There were no bidirectional associations between changes in physical behaviours and grip strength. Improvements in UWS were associated with improvements in all physical behaviours. Improvements in chair stand speed were associated with improvements in total PA, MVPA, and sedentary bout time. Improvements in physical behaviours were associated with improvements in UWS (3.1 cm/s/yr per 100 cpm/yr  total PA, 3.6 cm/s/yr per hr/day/yr MVPA, 2.5 cm/s/yr per hr/day/yr LPA, - 2.9 cm/s/yr per hour/day/yr sedentary time, and - 1.6 cm/s/yr per hr/day/yr prolonged sedentary bout time). Only improvements in total PA, MVPA and sedentary bout time were associated with improvements in chair stand speed. In conclusion, we found bidirectional associations between changes in some physical behaviours and physical function and between baseline physical behaviours and subsequent physical function, highlighting the importance of considering the full range of physical behaviours to promote healthy ageing. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-022-00733-y.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes: a systematic review and an individual participant data analysis of prospective cohort studies.

Objective: Few prospective studies have assessed whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more likely to develop diabetes, with conflicting results. In this study, we conducted a systematic review of the literature and an individual participant data analysis of multiple prospective cohorts to investigate the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. Methods: We performed a systematic review of the literature in Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from inception to February 11, 2022. A two-stage individual participant data analysis was conducted to compare participants with subclinical hypothyroidism and subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism at baseline and the adjusted risk of developing diabetes at follow-up. Results: Among 61 178 adults from 18 studies, 49% were females, mean age was 58 years, and mean follow-up time was 8.2 years. At the last available follow-up, there was no association between subclinical hypothyroidism and incidence of diabetes (odds ratio (OR) = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88-1.17, I2 = 0%) or subclinical hyperthyroidism and incidence of diabetes (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.82-1.30, I2 = 0%), in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Time-to-event analysis showed similar results (hazard ratio for subclinical hypothyroidism: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.87-1.11; hazard ratio for subclinical hyperthyroidism: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.88-1.29). The results were robust in all sub-group and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: This is the largest systematic review and individual participant data analysis to date investigating the prospective association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and diabetes. We did not find an association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. Our results do not support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes. Significance statement: Evidence is conflicting regarding whether an association exists between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. We therefore aimed to investigate whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more prone to develop diabetes in the long run as compared to euthyroid individuals. We included data from 18 international cohort studies with 61 178 adults and a mean follow-up time of 8.2 years. We did not find an association between subclinical hypothyroidism or subclinical hyperthyroidism at baseline and incident diabetes at follow-up. Our results have clinical implications as they neither support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes nor treating them in the hope of preventing diabetes in the future.

Association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and cardiometabolic risk factors in adults in rural and urban settings.

BACKGROUND: An inverse association between vitamin D status and cardiometabolic risk has been reported but this relationship may have been affected by residual confounding from adiposity and physical activity due to imprecise measures of these variables. We aimed to investigate the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and cardiometabolic risk factors, with adjustment for objectively-measured physical activity and adiposity. METHODS: This was a population-based cross-sectional study in 586 adults in Cameroon (63.5% women). We assessed markers of glucose homoeostasis (fasting blood glucose (BG), 2 h post glucose load BG, HOMA-IR)) and computed a metabolic syndrome score by summing the sex-specific z-scores of five risk components measuring central adiposity, blood pressure, glucose, HDL cholesterol and triglycerides. RESULTS: Mean±SD age was 38.3 ± 8.6 years, and serum 25(OH)D was 51.7 ± 12.5 nmol/L. Mean 25(OH)D was higher in rural (53.4 ± 12.8 nmol/L) than urban residents (50.2 ± 12.1 nmol/L), p = 0.002. The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency (<50 nmol/L) was 45.7%. There was an inverse association between 25(OH)D and the metabolic syndrome score in unadjusted analyses (ß = -0.30, 95% CI -0.55 to -0.05), which became non-significant after adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, alcohol intake and education level. Serum 25(OH)D was inversely associated with fasting BG (-0.21, -0.34 to -0.08)), which remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, education, smoking, alcohol intake, the season of data collection, BMI and physical activity (-0.17, -0.29 to -0.06). There was an inverse association of 25(OH)D with 2-h BG (-0.20, -0.34 to -0.05) and HOMA-IR (-0.12, -0.19 to -0.04) in unadjusted analysis, but these associations became non-significant after adjustment for potential confounders. CONCLUSION: Vitamin D insufficiency was common in this population. This study showed an inverse association between vitamin D status and fasting glucose that was independent of potential confounders, including objectively measured physical activity and adiposity, suggesting a possible mechanism through insulin secretion.

Trans Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Incident Type 2 Diabetes: Pooled Analysis of 12 Prospective Cohort Studies in the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium (FORCE).

OBJECTIVE: Trans fatty acids (TFAs) have harmful biologic effects that could increase the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but evidence remains uncertain. We aimed to investigate the prospective associations of TFA biomarkers and T2D by conducting an individual participant-level pooled analysis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included data from an international consortium of 12 prospective cohorts and nested case-control studies from six nations. TFA biomarkers were measured in blood collected between 1990 and 2008 from 25,126 participants aged ≥18 years without prevalent diabetes. Each cohort conducted de novo harmonized analyses using a prespecified protocol, and findings were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by prespecified between-study and within-study characteristics. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 13.5 years, 2,843 cases of incident T2D were identified. In multivariable-adjusted pooled analyses, no significant associations with T2D were identified for trans/trans-18:2, relative risk (RR) 1.09 (95% CI 0.94-1.25); cis/trans-18:2, 0.89 (0.73-1.07); and trans/cis-18:2, 0.87 (0.73-1.03). Trans-16:1n-9, total trans-18:1, and total trans-18:2 were inversely associated with T2D (RR 0.81 [95% CI 0.67-0.99], 0.86 [0.75-0.99], and 0.84 [0.74-0.96], respectively). Findings were not significantly different according to prespecified sources of potential heterogeneity (each P ≥ 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: Circulating individual trans-18:2 TFA biomarkers were not associated with risk of T2D, while trans-16:1n-9, total trans-18:1, and total trans-18:2 were inversely associated. Findings may reflect the influence of mixed TFA sources (industrial vs. natural ruminant), a general decline in TFA exposure due to policy changes during this period, or the relatively limited range of TFA levels.

Face Validity of Observed Meal Patterns Reported with 7-Day Diet Diaries in a Large Population-Based Cohort Using Diurnal Variation in Concentration Biomarkers of Dietary Intake.

In a cross-sectional analysis of a population-based cohort (United Kingdom, N = 21,318, 1993-1998), we studied how associations between meal patterns and non-fasting triglyceride and glucose concentrations were influenced by the hour of day at which the blood sample was collected to ascertain face validity of reported meal patterns, as well as the influence of reporting bias (assessed using formula of energy expenditure) on this association. Meal size (i.e., reported energy content), mealtime and meal frequency were reported using pre-structured 7-day diet diaries. In ANCOVA, sex-specific means of biomarker concentrations were calculated by hour of blood sample collection for quartiles of reported energy intake at breakfast, lunch and dinner (meal size). Significant interactions were observed between breakfast size, sampling time and triglyceride concentrations and between lunch size, sampling time and triglyceride, as well as glucose concentrations. Those skipping breakfast had the lowest triglyceride concentrations in the morning and those skipping lunch had the lowest triglyceride and glucose concentrations in the afternoon, especially among acceptable energy reporters. Eating and drinking occasion frequency was weakly associated with glucose concentrations in women and positively associated with triglyceride concentrations in both sexes; stronger associations were observed for larger vs. smaller meals and among acceptable energy reporters. Associations between meal patterns and concentration biomarkers can be observed when accounting for diurnal variation and underreporting. These findings support the use of 7-day diet diaries for studying associations between meal patterns and health.

Joint associations between objectively measured physical activity volume and intensity with body fatness: the Fenland study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) represents the total volume of all physical activity. This can be accumulated as different underlying intensity profiles. Although volume and intensity have been studied in isolation, less is known about their joint association with health. We examined this association with body fatness in a population-based sample of middle-aged British adults. METHODS: In total, 6148 women and 5320 men from the Fenland study with objectively measured physical activity from individually calibrated combined heart rate and movement sensing and DXA-derived body fat percentage (BF%) were included in the analyses. We used linear and compositional isocaloric substitution analysis to examine associations of PAEE and its intensity composition with body fatness. Sex-stratified models were adjusted for socio-economic and dietary covariates. RESULTS: PAEE was inversely associated with body fatness in women (beta = -0.16 (95% CI: -0.17; -0.15) BF% per kJ day-1 kg-1) and men (beta = -0.09 (95% CI: -0.10; -0.08) BF% per kJ day-1 kg-1). Intensity composition was significantly associated with body fatness, beyond that of PAEE; the reallocation of energy to vigorous physical activity (>6 METs) from other intensities was associated with less body fatness, whereas light activity (1.5-3 METs) was positively associated. However, light activity was the main driver of overall PAEE volume, and the relative importance of intensity was marginal compared to that of volume; the difference between PAEE in tertile 1 and 2 in women was associated with 3 percentage-point lower BF%. Higher vigorous physical activity in the same group to the maximum observed value was associated with 1 percentage-point lower BF%. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, population-based cohort study with objective measures, PAEE was inversely associated with body fatness. Beyond the PAEE association, greater levels of intense activity were also associated with lower body fatness. This contribution was marginal relative to PAEE. These findings support current guidelines for physical activity which emphasise that any movement is beneficial, rather than specific activity intensity or duration targets.

Plasma concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and pancreatic cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Findings and limitations of previous studies on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and pancreatic cancer risk support conducting further research in prospective cohorts. METHODS: We conducted a prospective case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Participants were 513 pancreatic cancer cases and 1020 matched controls. Concentrations of 22 POPs were measured in plasma collected at baseline. RESULTS: Some associations were observed at higher concentrations of p, p'-DDT, trans-nonachlor, ß-hexachlorocyclohexane and the sum of six organochlorine pesticides and of 16 POPs. The odds ratio (OR) for the upper quartile of trans-nonachlor was 1.55 (95% confidence interval 1.06-2.26; P for trend = 0.025). Associations were stronger in the groups predefined as most valid (participants having fasted >6 h, with microscopic diagnostic confirmation, normal weight, and never smokers), and as most relevant (follow-up ≥10 years). Among participants having fasted >6 h, the ORs were relevant for 10 of 11 exposures. Higher ORs were also observed among cases with microscopic confirmation than in cases with a clinical diagnosis, and among normal-weight participants than in the rest of participants. Among participants with a follow-up ≥10 years, estimates were higher than in participants with a shorter follow-up (for trans-nonachlor: OR = 2.14, 1.01 to 4.53, P for trend = 0.035). Overall, trans-nonachlor, three PCBs and the two sums of POPs were the exposures most clearly associated with pancreatic cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: Individually or in combination, most of the 22 POPs analysed did not or only moderately increased the risk of pancreatic cancer.