Severe morbidity and hospital-based mortality from Rift Valley fever disease between November 2017 and March 2020 among humans in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic viral disease of increasing intensity among humans in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. In Uganda, cases reported prior to 2016 were mild or not fully documented. We report in this paper on the severe morbidity and hospital-based mortality of human cases in Uganda. METHODS: Between November 2017 and March 2020 human cases reported to the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) were confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Ethical and regulatory approvals were obtained to enrol survivors into a one-year follow-up study. Data were collected on socio-demographics, medical history, laboratory tests, potential risk factors, and analysed using Stata software. RESULTS: Overall, 40 cases were confirmed with acute RVF during this period. Cases were not geographically clustered and nearly all were male (39/40; 98%), median age 32 (range 11-63). The median definitive diagnosis time was 7 days and a delay of three days between presumptive and definitive diagnosis. Most patients (31/40; 78%) presented with fever and bleeding at case detection. Twenty-eight (70%) cases were hospitalised, out of whom 18 (64%) died. Mortality was highest among admissions in regional referral (11/16; 69%) and district (4/5; 80%) hospitals, hospitalized patients with bleeding at case detection (17/27; 63%), and patients older than 44 years (9/9; 100%). Survivors mostly manifested a mild gastro-intestinal syndrome with nausea (83%), anorexia (75%), vomiting (75%), abdominal pain (50%), and diarrhoea (42%), and prolonged symptoms of severe disease including jaundice (67%), visual difficulties (67%), epistaxis (50%), haemoptysis (42%), and dysentery (25%). Symptom duration varied between two to 120 days. CONCLUSION: RVF is associated with high hospital-based mortality, severe and prolonged morbidity among humans that present to the health care system and are confirmed by PCR. One-health composite interventions should be developed to improve environmental and livestock surveillance, prevent infections, promptly detect outbreaks, and improve patient outcomes.

Pre-vaccination monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio as a biomarker for the efficacy of malaria candidate vaccines: A subgroup analysis of pooled clinical trial data.

BACKGROUND: Pre-vaccination monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio was previously suggested as a marker for malaria vaccine effectiveness. We investigated the potential of this cell ratio as a marker for malaria vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. Effectiveness was investigated by using clinical malaria endpoint, and efficacy was investigated by using surrogate endpoints of Plasmodium falciparum prepatent period, parasite density, and multiplication rates in a controlled human malaria infection trial (CHMI). METHODS: We evaluated the correlation between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and RTS,S vaccine effectiveness using Cox regression modeling with clinical malaria as the primary endpoint. Of the 1704 participants in the RTS,S field trial, data on monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio was available for 842 participants, of whom our analyses were restricted. We further used Spearman Correlations and Cox regression modeling to evaluate the correlation between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine efficacy using the surrogate endpoints. Of the 97 participants in the controlled human malaria infection vaccine trials, hematology and parasitology information were available for 82 participants, of whom our analyses were restricted. RESULTS: The unadjusted efficacy of RTS,S malaria vaccine was 54% (95% CI: 37%-66%, p <0.001). No correlation was observed between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and RTS,S vaccine efficacy (Hazard Rate (HR):0.90, 95%CI:0.45-1.80; p = 0.77). The unadjusted efficacy of Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine in the appended dataset was 17.6% (95%CI:10%-28.5%, p<0.001). No association between monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio and the Whole Sporozoite malaria vaccine was found against either the prepatent period (HR = 1.16; 95%CI:0.51-2.62, p = 0.72), parasite density (rho = 0.004, p = 0.97) or multiplication rates (rho = 0.031, p = 0.80). CONCLUSION: Monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio alone may not be an adequate marker for malaria vaccine efficacy. Further investigations on immune correlates and underlying mechanisms of immune protection against malaria could provide a clearer explanation of the differences between those protected in comparison with those not protected against malaria by vaccination.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and implications for population immunity: Evidence from two Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Kenya, February-December 2022.

BACKGROUND: We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin. RESULTS: HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended.

Symptom prevalence and secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in rural Kenyan households: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household contacts of PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in rural Kenya and analysed risk factors for transmission. METHODS: We enrolled incident PCR-confirmed cases and their household members. At baseline, a questionnaire, a blood sample, and naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Household members were followed 4, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 days after the date of the first PCR-positive in the household; naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit and used to define secondary cases. Blood samples were collected every 1-2 weeks. Symptoms were collected in a daily symptom diary. We used binomial regression to estimate secondary attack rates and survival analysis to analyse risk factors for transmission. RESULTS: A total of 119 households with at least one positive household member were enrolled between October 2020 and September 2022, comprising 503 household members; 226 remained in follow-up at day 14 (45%). A total of 43 secondary cases arose within 14 days of identification of the primary case, and 81 household members remained negative. The 7-day secondary attack rate was 4% (95% CI 1%-10%), the 14-day secondary attack rate was 28% (95% CI 17%-40%). Of 38 secondary cases with data, eight reported symptoms (21%, 95% CI 8%-34%). Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at enrolment was not associated with risk of becoming a secondary case. CONCLUSION: Households in our setting experienced a lower 7-day attack rate than a recent meta-analysis indicated as the global average (23%-43% depending on variant), and infection is mostly asymptomatic in our setting.

A Customizable Suite of Methods to Sequence and Annotate Cattle Antibodies.

Studying the antibody response to infection or vaccination is essential for developing more effective vaccines and therapeutics. Advances in high-throughput antibody sequencing technologies and immunoinformatic tools now allow the fast and comprehensive analysis of antibody repertoires at high resolution in any species. Here, we detail a flexible and customizable suite of methods from flow cytometry, single cell sorting, heavy and light chain amplification to antibody sequencing in cattle. These methods were used successfully, including adaptation to the 10x Genomics platform, to isolate native heavy-light chain pairs. When combined with the Ig-Sequence Multi-Species Annotation Tool, this suite represents a powerful toolkit for studying the cattle antibody response with high resolution and precision. Using three workflows, we processed 84, 96, and 8313 cattle B cells from which we sequenced 24, 31, and 4756 antibody heavy-light chain pairs, respectively. Each method has strengths and limitations in terms of the throughput, timeline, specialist equipment, and cost that are each discussed. Moreover, the principles outlined here can be applied to study antibody responses in other mammalian species.

Immunogenicity and safety of fractional doses of 17D-213 yellow fever vaccine in HIV-infected people in Kenya (YEFE): a randomised, double-blind, non-inferiority substudy of a phase 4 trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence indicates that fractional doses of yellow fever vaccine are safe and sufficiently immunogenic for use during yellow fever outbreaks. However, there are no data on the generalisability of this observation to populations living with HIV. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the immunogenicity of fractional and standard doses of yellow fever vaccine in HIV-positive adults. METHODS: We conducted a randomised, double-blind, non-inferiority substudy in Kilifi, coastal Kenya to compare the immunogenicity and safety of a fractional dose (one-fifth of the standard dose) versus the standard dose of 17D-213 yellow fever vaccine among HIV-positive volunteers. HIV-positive participants aged 18-59 years, with baseline CD4+ T-cell count of at least 200 cells per mL, and who were not pregnant, had no previous history of yellow fever vaccination or infection, and had no contraindication for yellow fever vaccination were recruited from the community. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 in blocks (variable block sizes) to either a fractional dose or a standard dose of the 17D-213 yellow fever vaccine. Vaccines were administered subcutaneously by an unblinded nurse and pharmacist; all other study personnel were blinded to the vaccine allocation. The primary outcome of the study was the proportion of participants who seroconverted by the plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT50) 28 days after vaccination for the fractional dose versus the standard dose in the per-protocol population. Secondary outcomes were assessment of adverse events and immunogenicity during the 1-year follow-up period. Participants were considered to have seroconverted if the post-vaccination antibody titre was at least 4 times greater than the pre-vaccination titre. We set a non-inferiority margin of not less than a 17% decrease in seroconversion in the fractional dose compared with the standard dose. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02991495. FINDINGS: Between Jan 29, 2019, and May 17, 2019, 303 participants were screened, and 250 participants were included and vaccinated; 126 participants were assigned to the fractional dose and 124 to the standard dose. 28 days after vaccination, 112 (96%, 95% CI 90-99) of 117 participants in the fractional dose group and 115 (98%, 94-100) of 117 in the standard dose group seroconverted by PRNT50. The difference in seroconversion between the fractional dose and the standard dose was -3% (95% CI -7 to 2). Fractional dosing therefore met the non-inferiority criterion, and non-inferiority was maintained for 1 year. The most common adverse events were headache (n=31 [12%]), fatigue (n=23 [9%]), myalgia (n=23 [9%]), and cough (n=14 [6%]). Reported adverse events were either mild (182 [97%] of 187 adverse events) or moderate (5 [3%]) and were self-limiting. INTERPRETATION: Fractional doses of the 17D-213 yellow fever vaccine were sufficiently immunogenic and safe demonstrating non-inferiority to the standard vaccine dose in HIV-infected individuals with CD4+ T cell counts of at least 200 cells per mL. These results provide confidence that fractional dose recommendations are applicable to populations with high HIV prevalence. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Médecins Sans Frontières Foundation, and the UK Department for International Development.

Immunogenicity and safety of fractional doses of 17D-213 yellow fever vaccine in children (YEFE): a randomised, double-blind, non-inferiority substudy of a phase 4 trial.

BACKGROUND: Current supply shortages constrain yellow fever vaccination activities, particularly outbreak response. Although fractional doses of all WHO-prequalified yellow fever vaccines have been shown to be safe and immunogenic in a randomised controlled trial in adults, they have not been evaluated in a randomised controlled trial in young children (9-59 months old). We aimed to assess the immunogenicity and safety of fractional doses compared with standard doses of the WHO-prequalified 17D-213 vaccine in young children. METHODS: This substudy of the YEFE phase 4 study was conducted at the Epicentre Mbarara Research Centre (Mbarara, Uganda). Eligible children were aged 9-59 months without contraindications for vaccination, without history of previous yellow fever vaccination or infection and not requiring yellow fever vaccination for travelling. Participants were randomly assigned, using block randomisation, 1:1 to standard or fractional (one-fifth) dose of yellow fever vaccine. Investigators, participants, and laboratory personnel were blinded to group allocation. Participants were followed for immunogenicity and safety at 10 days, 28 days, and 1 year after vaccination. The primary outcome was non-inferiority in seroconversion (-10 percentage point margin) 28 days after vaccination measured by 50% plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT50) in the per-protocol population. Safety and seroconversion at 10 days and 12-16 months after vaccination (given COVID-19 resctrictions) were secondary outcomes. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02991495. FINDINGS: Between Feb 20, 2019, and Sept 9, 2019, 433 children were assessed, and 420 were randomly assigned to fractional dose (n=210) and to standard dose (n=210) 17D-213 vaccination. 28 days after vaccination, 202 (97%, 95% CI 95-99) of 207 participants in the fractional dose group and 191 (100%, 98-100) of 191 in the standard dose group seroconverted. The absolute difference in seroconversion between the study groups in the per-protocol population was -2 percentage points (95% CI -5 to 1). 154 (73%) of 210 participants in the fractional dose group and 168 (80%) of 210 in the standard dose group reported at least one adverse event 28 days after vaccination. At 10 days follow-up, seroconversion was lower in the fractional dose group than in the standard dose group. The most common adverse events were upper respiratory tract infections (n=221 [53%]), diarrhoea (n=68 [16%]), rhinorrhoea (n=49 [12%]), and conjunctivitis (n=28 [7%]). No difference was observed in incidence of adverse events and serious adverse events between study groups. CONCLUSIONS: Fractional doses of the 17D-213 vaccine were non-inferior to standard doses in inducing seroconversion 28 days after vaccination in children aged 9-59 months when assessed with PRNT50, but we found fewer children seroconverted at 10 days. The results support consideration of the use of fractional dose of yellow fever vaccines in WHO recommendations for outbreak response in the event of a yellow fever vaccine shortage to include children. FUNDING: Médecins Sans Frontières Foundation.

Safety and immunogenicity of a ChAdOx1 vaccine against Rift Valley fever in UK adults: an open-label, non-randomised, first-in-human phase 1 clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever is a viral epidemic illness prevalent in Africa that can be fatal or result in debilitating sequelae in humans. No vaccines are available for human use. We aimed to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of a non-replicating simian adenovirus-vectored Rift Valley fever (ChAdOx1 RVF) vaccine in humans. METHODS: We conducted a phase 1, first-in-human, open-label, dose-escalation trial in healthy adults aged 18-50 years at the Centre for Clinical Vaccinology and Tropical Medicine, Oxford, UK. Participants were required to have no serious comorbidities or previous history of receiving an adenovirus-based vaccine before enrolment. Participants were non-randomly allocated to receive a single ChAdOx1 RVF dose of either 5 × 109 virus particles (vp), 2·5 × 1010 vp, or 5 × 1010 vp administered intramuscularly into the deltoid of their non-dominant arm; enrolment was sequential and administration was staggered to allow for safety to be assessed before progression to the next dose. Primary outcome measures were assessment of adverse events and secondary outcome measures were Rift Valley fever neutralising antibody titres, Rift Valley fever GnGc-binding antibody titres (ELISA), and cellular response (ELISpot), analysed in all participants who received a vaccine. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04754776). FINDINGS: Between June 11, 2021, and Jan 13, 2022, 15 volunteers received a single dose of either 5 × 109 vp (n=3), 2·5 × 1010 vp (n=6), or 5 × 1010 vp (n=6) ChAdOx1 RVF. Nine participants were female and six were male. 14 (93%) of 15 participants reported solicited local adverse reactions; injection-site pain was the most frequent (13 [87%] of 15). Ten (67%) of 15 participants (from the 2·5 × 1010 vp and 5 × 1010 vp groups only) reported systemic symptoms, which were mostly mild in intensity, the most common being headache (nine [60%] of 15) and fatigue (seven [47%]). All unsolicited adverse events reported within 28 days were either mild or moderate in severity; gastrointestinal symptoms were the most common reaction (at least possibly related to vaccination), occurring in four (27%) of 15 participants. Transient decreases in total white cell, lymphocyte, or neutrophil counts occurred at day 2 in some participants in the intermediate-dose and high-dose groups. Lymphopenia graded as severe occurred in two participants in the 5 × 1010 vp group at a single timepoint, but resolved at the subsequent follow-up visit. No serious adverse events occurred. Rift Valley fever neutralising antibodies were detectable across all dose groups, with all participants in the 5 × 1010 vp dose group having high neutralising antibody titres that peaked at day 28 after vaccination and persisted through the 3-month follow-up. High titres of binding IgG targeting Gc glycoprotein were detected whereas those targeting Gn were comparatively low. IFNγ cellular responses against Rift Valley fever Gn and Gc glycoproteins were observed in all participants except one in the 5 × 1010 vp dose group. These IFNγ responses peaked at 2 weeks after vaccination, were highest in the 5 × 1010 vp dose group, and tended to be more frequent against the Gn glycoprotein. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 RVF was safe, well tolerated, and immunogenic when administered as a single dose in this study population. The data support further clinical development of ChAdOx1 RVF for human use. FUNDING: UK Department of Health and Social Care through the UK Vaccines Network, Oak Foundation, and the Wellcome Trust. TRANSLATION: For the Swahili translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Serum immunoglobulin G and mucosal immunoglobulin A antibodies from prepandemic samples collected in Kilifi, Kenya, neutralize SARS-CoV-2 in vitro.

OBJECTIVES: Many regions of Africa have experienced lower COVID-19 morbidity and mortality than Europe. Pre-existing humoral responses to endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) may cross-protect against SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the neutralizing capacity of SARS-CoV-2 spike reactive and nonreactive immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgA antibodies in prepandemic samples. METHODS: To investigate the presence of pre-existing immunity, we performed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using spike antigens from reference SARS-CoV-2, HCoV HKU1, OC43, NL63, and 229E using prepandemic samples from Kilifi in coastal Kenya. In addition, we performed neutralization assays using pseudotyped reference SARS-CoV-2 to determine the functionality of the identified reactive antibodies. RESULTS: We demonstrate the presence of HCoV serum IgG and mucosal IgA antibodies, which cross-react with the SARS-CoV-2 spike. We show pseudotyped reference SARS-CoV-2 neutralization by prepandemic serum, with a mean infective dose 50 of 1: 251, which is 10-fold less than that of the pooled convalescent sera from patients with COVID-19 but still within predicted protection levels. The prepandemic naso-oropharyngeal fluid neutralized pseudo-SARS-CoV-2 at a mean infective dose 50 of 1: 5.9 in the neutralization assay. CONCLUSION: Our data provide evidence for pre-existing functional humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 in Kilifi, coastal Kenya and adds to data showing pre-existing immunity for COVID-19 from other regions.

Safety and immunogenicity of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in adults in Kenya: a phase 1/2 single-blind, randomised controlled trial.

Background: There are limited data on the immunogenicity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in African populations. Here we report the immunogenicity and safety of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine from a phase 1/2 single-blind, randomised, controlled trial among adults in Kenya conducted as part of the early studies assessing vaccine performance in different geographical settings to inform Emergency Use Authorisation. Methods: We recruited and randomly assigned (1:1) 400 healthy adults aged ≥18 years in Kenya to receive ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or control rabies vaccine, each as a two-dose schedule with a 3-month interval. The co-primary outcomes were safety, and immunogenicity assessed using total IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein 28 days after the second vaccination. Results: Between 28 th October 2020 and 19 th August 2021, 400 participants were enrolled and assigned to receive ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (n=200) or rabies vaccine (n=200). Local and systemic adverse events were self-limiting and mild or moderate in nature. Three serious adverse events were reported but these were deemed unrelated to vaccination. The geometric mean anti-spike IgG titres 28 days after second dose vaccination were higher in the ChAdOx1 group (2773 ELISA units [EU], 95% CI 2447, 3142) than in the rabies vaccine group (61 EU, 95% CI 45, 81) and persisted over the 12 months follow-up. We did not identify any symptomatic infections or hospital admissions with respiratory illness and so vaccine efficacy against clinically apparent infection could not be measured. Vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 38.4% (95% CI -26.8%, 70.1%; p=0.188). Conclusions: The safety, immunogenicity and efficacy against asymptomatic infection of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 among Kenyan adults was similar to that observed elsewhere in the world, but efficacy against symptomatic infection or severe disease could not be measured in this cohort. Pan-African Clinical Trials Registration: PACTR202005681895696 (11/05/2020).

Where do those data go? Reuse of screening results from clinical trials to estimate population prevalence of HBV infection in adults in Kilifi, Kenya.

Chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB) is a significant problem worldwide with around 300 million people infected. Ambitious goals have been set towards its elimination as a public health threat by 2030. However, accurate seroprevalence estimates in many countries are lacking or fail to provide representative population estimates, particularly in the WHO African Region (AFRO). This means the full extent of HBV infection is not well described, leading to a lack of investment in diagnostics, treatment and disease prevention. Clinical trials in the WHO AFRO region have been increasing over time and many test for infectious diseases including hepatitis B virus (HBV) to determine baseline eligibility for participants, however these screening data are not reported. Here we review data from six clinical trials completed at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme between 2016 and 2023 that screened for HBV using hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) as part of the trial exclusion criteria. 1727 people had HBsAg results available, of which 60 tested positive. We generated a crude period HBV prevalence estimate of 3.5% (95% CI 2.6-4.5%), and after standardisation for sex and age to account for the population structure of the Kilifi Health Demographics Surveillance System (KHDSS), the prevalence estimate increased to 5.0% (95% CI 3.4-6.6%). The underrepresentation of women in these trials was striking with 1263/1641 (77%) of participants being male. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) was significantly higher in the HBsAg positive group but was not outside the normal range. We argue that routine collation and publishing of data from clinical trials could increase precision and geographical representation of global HBV prevalence estimates, enabling evidence-based provision of clinical care pathways and public health interventions to support progress towards global elimination targets. We do acknowledge when using clinical trials data for seroprevalence estimates, that local population structure data is necessary to allow standardisation of results, and the point of care tests used here are limited in sensitivity and specificity.

Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in three Kenyan referral hospitals: Repeated cross-sectional surveys 2020-21.

INTRODUCTION: The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity. METHODS: We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi. CONCLUSIONS: There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning.

Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11. FINDINGS: Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective.

Transmission networks of SARS-CoV-2 in Coastal Kenya during the first two waves: A retrospective genomic study.

Background: Detailed understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) regional transmission networks within sub-Saharan Africa is key for guiding local public health interventions against the pandemic. Methods: Here, we analysed 1139 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from positive samples collected between March 2020 and February 2021 across six counties of Coastal Kenya (Mombasa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Tana River, and Lamu) to infer virus introductions and local transmission patterns during the first two waves of infections. Virus importations were inferred using ancestral state reconstruction, and virus dispersal between counties was estimated using discrete phylogeographic analysis. Results: During Wave 1, 23 distinct Pango lineages were detected across the six counties, while during Wave 2, 29 lineages were detected; 9 of which occurred in both waves and 4 seemed to be Kenya specific (B.1.530, B.1.549, B.1.596.1, and N.8). Most of the sequenced infections belonged to lineage B.1 (n = 723, 63%), which predominated in both Wave 1 (73%, followed by lineages N.8 [6%] and B.1.1 [6%]) and Wave 2 (56%, followed by lineages B.1.549 [21%] and B.1.530 [5%]). Over the study period, we estimated 280 SARS-CoV-2 virus importations into Coastal Kenya. Mombasa City, a vital tourist and commercial centre for the region, was a major route for virus imports, most of which occurred during Wave 1, when many Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) government restrictions were still in force. In Wave 2, inter-county transmission predominated, resulting in the emergence of local transmission chains and diversity. Conclusions: Our analysis supports moving COVID-19 control strategies in the region from a focus on international travel to strategies that will reduce local transmission. Funding: This work was funded by The Wellcome (grant numbers: 220985, 203077/Z/16/Z, 220977/Z/20/Z, and 222574/Z/21/Z) and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), project references: 17/63/and 16/136/33 using UK Aid from the UK government to support global health research, The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the funding agencies.

Incidence of chikungunya virus infections among Kenyan children with neurological disease, 2014-2018: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Neurological complications due to chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection have been described in different parts of the world, with children being disproportionately affected. However, the burden of CHIKV-associated neurological disease in Africa is currently unknown and given the lack of diagnostic facilities in routine care it is possible that CHIKV is an unrecognized etiology among children with encephalitis or other neurological illness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated the incidence of CHIKV infection among children hospitalized with neurological disease in Kilifi County, coastal Kenya. We used reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to systematically test for CHIKV in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from children aged <16 years hospitalized with symptoms of neurological disease at Kilifi County Hospital between January 2014 and December 2018. Clinical records were linked to the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System and population incidence rates of CHIKV infection estimated. There were 18,341 pediatric admissions for any reason during the 5-year study period, of which 4,332 (24%) had CSF collected. The most common clinical reasons for CSF collection were impaired consciousness, seizures, and coma (47%, 22%, and 21% of all collections, respectively). After acute investigations done for immediate clinical care, CSF samples were available for 3,980 admissions, of which 367 (9.2%) were CHIKV RT-PCR positive. Case fatality among CHIKV-positive children was 1.4% (95% CI 0.4, 3.2). The annual incidence of CHIKV-associated neurological disease varied between 13 to 58 episodes per 100,000 person-years among all children <16 years old. Among children aged <5 years, the incidence of CHIKV-associated neurological disease was 77 per 100,000 person-years, compared with 20 per 100,000 for cerebral malaria and 7 per 100,000 for bacterial meningitis during the study period. Because of incomplete case ascertainment due to children not presenting to hospital, or not having CSF collected, these are likely minimum estimates. Study limitations include reliance on hospital-based surveillance and limited CSF sampling in children in coma or other contraindications to lumbar puncture, both of which lead to under-ascertainment of incidence and of case fatality. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that CHIKV infections are relatively more common than cerebral malaria and bacterial meningitis among children hospitalized with neurological disease in coastal Kenya. Given the wide distribution of CHIKV mosquito vectors, studies to determine the geographic extent of CHIKV-associated neurological disease in Africa are essential.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 infections on routine polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serology testing in Coastal Kenya.

Background: There are limited studies in Africa describing the epidemiology, clinical characteristics and serostatus of individuals tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We tested routine samples from the Coastal part of Kenya between 17 th March 2020 and 30 th June 2021. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 infections identified using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and clinical surveillance data at the point of sample collection were used to classify as either symptomatic or asymptomatic. IgG antibodies were measured in sera samples, using a well validated in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results: Mombasa accounted for 56.2% of all the 99,694 naso-pharyngeal/oro-pharyngeal swabs tested, and males constituted the majority tested (73.4%). A total of 7737 (7.7%) individuals were SARS-CoV-2 positive by RT-PCR. The majority (i.e., 92.4%) of the RT-PCR positive individuals were asymptomatic. Testing was dominated by mass screening and travellers, and even at health facility level 91.6% of tests were from individuals without symptoms. Out of the 97,124 tests from asymptomatic individuals 7,149 (7%) were positive and of the 2,568 symptomatic individuals 588 (23%) were positive. In total, 2458 serum samples were submitted with paired naso-pharyngeal/oro-pharyngeal samples and 45% of the RT-PCR positive samples and 20% of the RT-PCR negative samples were paired with positive serum samples. Symptomatic individuals had significantly higher antibody levels than asymptomatic individuals and become RT-PCR negative on repeat testing earlier than asymptomatic individuals. Conclusions: In conclusion, the majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections identified by routine testing in Coastal Kenya were asymptomatic. This reflects the testing practice of health services in Kenya, but also implies that asymptomatic infection is very common in the population. Symptomatic infection may be less common, or it may be that individuals do not present for testing when they have symptoms.

Clinical manifestations of Rift Valley fever in humans: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, neglected, mosquito-borne viral zoonosis associated with significant morbidity, mortality and expanding geographical scope. The clinical signs and symptoms in humans are non-specific and case definitions vary. We reviewed and analysed the clinical manifestations of RVF in humans. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched on different dates, the Embase (from 1947 to 13th October 2019), Medline (1946 to 14th October 2019), Global Health (1910 to 15th October 2019), and Web of Science (1970 to 15th October 2019) databases. Studies published in English, reporting frequency of symptoms in humans, and laboratory confirmed RVF were included. Animal studies, studies among asymptomatic volunteers, and single case reports for which a proportion could not be estimated, were excluded. Quality assessment was done using a modified Hoy and Brooks et al tool, data was extracted, and pooled frequency estimates calculated using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of the 3765 articles retrieved, less than 1% (32 articles) were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Nine RVF clinical syndromes were reported including the general febrile, renal, gastrointestinal, hepatic, haemorrhagic, visual, neurological, cardio-pulmonary, and obstetric syndromes. The most common clinical manifestations included fever (81%; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 69-91; [26 studies, 1286 patients]), renal failure (41%; 23-59; [4, 327]), nausea (38%; 12-67; [6, 325]), jaundice (26%; 16-36; [15, 393]), haemorrhagic disease (26%; 17-36; [16, 277]), partial blindness (24%; 7-45; [11, 225]), encephalitis (21%; 11-33; [4, 327]), cough (4%; 0-17; [4, 11]), and miscarriage (54%) respectively. Death occurred in 21% (95% CI 14-29; [16 studies, 328 patients]) of cases, most of whom were hospitalised. DISCUSSION: This study delineates the complex symptomatology of human RVF disease into syndromes. This approach is likely to improve case definitions and detection rates, impact outbreak control, increase public awareness about RVF, and subsequently inform 'one-health' policies. This study provides a pooled estimate of the proportion of RVF clinical manifestations alongside a narrative description of clinical syndromes. However, most studies reviewed were case series with small sample sizes and enrolled mostly in-patients and out-patients, and captured symptoms either sparsely or using broad category terms.

Comparative performance of WANTAI ELISA for total immunoglobulin to receptor binding protein and an ELISA for IgG to spike protein in detecting SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Kenyan populations.

Many SARS-CoV-2 antibody detection assays have been developed but their differential performance is not well described. In this study we compared an in-house (KWTRP) ELISA which has been used extensively to estimate seroprevalence in the Kenyan population with WANTAI, an ELISA which has been approved for widespread use by the WHO. Using a wide variety of sample sets including pre-pandemic samples (negative gold standard), SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive samples (positive gold standard) and COVID-19 test samples from different periods (unknowns), we compared performance characteristics of the two assays. The overall concordance between WANTAI and KWTRP was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95-0.98). For WANTAI and KWTRP, sensitivity was 0.95 (95% CI 0.90-0.98) and 0.93 (95% CI 0.87-0.96), respectively. Specificity for WANTAI was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96-0.99) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.96-1.00) while KWTRP specificity was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98-1.00) and 1.00 using pre-pandemic blood donors and pre-pandemic malaria cross-sectional survey samples respectively. Both assays show excellent characteristics to detect SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.

The global burden of Chikungunya fever among children: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) is an arboviral illness that was first described in Tanzania (1952). In adults, the disease is characterised by debilitating arthralgia and arthritis that can persist for months, with severe illness including neurological complications observed in the elderly. However, the burden, distribution and clinical features of CHIKF in children are poorly described. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to determine the epidemiology of CHIKF in children globally by describing its prevalence, geographical distribution, and clinical manifestations. We searched electronic databases for studies describing the epidemiology of CHIKF in children. We included peer-reviewed primary studies that reported laboratory confirmed CHIKF. We extracted information on study details, sampling approach, study participants, CHIKF positivity, clinical presentation and outcomes of CHIKF in children. The quality of included studies was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal tool for case reports and National Institute of Health quality assessment tool for quantitative studies and case series. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of CHIKF among children by geographical location. We summarised clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, administered treatment and disease outcomes associated with CHIKF in children. We identified 2104 studies, of which 142 and 53 articles that met the inclusion criteria were included in the systematic literature review and meta-analysis, respectively. Most of the selected studies were from Asia (54/142 studies) and the fewest from Europe (5/142 studies). Included studies were commonly conducted during an epidemic season (41.5%) than non-epidemic season (5.1%). Thrombocytopenia was common among infected children and CHIKF severity was more prevalent in children <1 year. Children with undifferentiated fever before CHIKF was diagnosed were treated with antibiotics and/or drugs that managed specific symptoms or provided supportive care. CHIKF is a significant under-recognised and underreported health problem among children globally and development of drugs/vaccines should target young children.