ABSTRACT
Differences in jurisdictional public health actions have played a significant role in the relative success of local communities in combating and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the possible COVID-19 outbreak in one US state (Utah) by applying empirical data from South Korea and Italy, two countries that implemented disparate public health actions. Forecasts were created by aligning the start of the pandemic in Utah with that in South Korea and Italy, getting a short-run forecast based on actual daily rates of spread, and long-run forecast by employing a log-logistic model with four parameters. Applying the South Korea model, the epidemic peak in Utah is 169 cases/day, with epidemic resolution by the end of May. Applying the Italy model, new cases are forecast to exceed 200/day by mid-April, with the potential for 250 new cases a day at the epidemic peak, with the epidemic continuing through the end of August. We identify a 3-month variation in the likely length of the pandemic, a 1.5-fold difference in the number of daily infections at outbreak peak, and a 3-fold difference in the expected cumulative cases when applying the experience of two developed countries in handling this virus to the Utah context.
Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Forecasting/methods , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , COVID-19 , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Reproducibility of Results , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , Utah/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Follow-up inspections are recommended by the Food and Drug Administration as a tool to verify corrections to violations cited during restaurant inspections. The effectiveness of follow-up inspections as a tool in reducing critical violations is unknown, however. The purpose of the authors' study was to assess whether a serious violation that leads to a follow-up inspection reduces the probability of specific critical violations occurring during the next routine inspection. Outcome measures included poor personal hygiene, improper holding temperatures, substandard equipment cleanliness, potential cross contamination, and improper sanitizer concentration. The risk of having a violation increased for all targeted critical violations during inspections conducted after a follow-up inspection compared to restaurant inspections without a prior follow-up, when adjusting for restaurant type, inspector experience, and season.
Subject(s)
Food Inspection/methods , Public Health , Restaurants , Food Inspection/statistics & numerical data , Retrospective Studies , United StatesABSTRACT
In 2010 the Salt Lake Valley Health Department conducted a pilot of an announced inspection program utilizing a randomized assignment of restaurants to an intervention group with announced inspections and a control group that remained on the usual schedule of unannounced inspections. After adjusting for food type, visible kitchen, outside quality assurance, season, and standardized inspector, significant reductions were found in the odds ratios of personal hygiene (adjusted odds ratios [aOR] = 0.11, p = .00) and equipment cleanliness (aOR = 0.19, p = .00) violations. In the models for the control group, none of the odds ratios were statistically different from one, indicating no change in the postintervention time period as compared to the preintervention period.
Subject(s)
Environmental Health/organization & administration , Food Handling/standards , Hygiene/standards , Restaurants/standards , Odds Ratio , Pilot Projects , Public Health , UtahABSTRACT
Posting restaurant inspection scores on the Internet as a tool for improving food safety is becoming more common. The purpose of the study described in this article was to evaluate the association between Internet posting of restaurant inspection scores and the five most frequently cited critical violations in Salt Lake County, Utah. The study examined 2,995 inspections conducted at 796 full service and fast food restaurants for a one-year period before and after launch of a restaurant inspection Web site. Critical violations decreased significantly after the Web site launch compared to before-launch levels. The greatest improvements were found in temperature holding violations (odds ratio = 0.75, p < .001), hygiene practices violations (odds ratio = 0.68, p < .001) and equipment cleanliness violations (odds ratio = 0.58, p < .001). Restaurant type (full service, fast food), inspector experience, and season were significantly associated with the decrease in violations.
