ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective option for HIV prevention. To realize the full benefit of PrEP at the population level, uptake must reach those at the greatest risk of HIV acquisition. Guidance published by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests that the number of individuals with indications for PrEP is 1.1-1.2 million nationally based on survey data of key populations and local transmission patterns. We applied these estimates at state and county levels to determine the number of individuals who might benefit from PrEP locally and compared our estimates to CDC-published estimates for Colorado. OBJECTIVE: This analysis aimed to produce estimates of key populations with indications for PrEP in Colorado as a whole and by county type. These estimates will be used for public health strategic planning for HIV prevention goals at the state and county jurisdictional levels. METHODS: Colorado population estimates were obtained from the state demography office, which utilizes US decennial census data and input from county and local agencies to forecast the population. We limited our analysis to adults aged 18-59 years to be consistent with CDC methodology for PrEP estimates. We performed a literature review to define the best population-level percentages to determine numbers of HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID) in Colorado. These percentages were applied to the state and to each county by its rural-urban designation. Finally, CDC-derived percentages of MSM and PWID with indications for PrEP were applied to these estimates to determine numbers of MSM and PWID who may benefit from PrEP use. RESULTS: In 2017, 3,252,648 adults aged 18-59 years were living in Colorado. By applying published estimates of percentages of men who had sex with other men in the past 12 months, we determined that 41,353-49,624 adult males could be considered sexually active MSM. We estimated that 9758-13,011 adults aged 18-59 years were likely to have injected drugs in the past 12 months. By accounting for numbers of people living with HIV in those categories and applying the CDC PrEP percentages of MSM and PWID with indications for PrEP nationally, we estimated that 8792-12,528 MSM and PWID in Colorado had indications for PrEP; this number is smaller than that estimated by CDC, although within the lower CI limit. CONCLUSIONS: By employing a simple framework consisting of census data, literature review, population estimates, and national estimates for PrEP indicators, we derived estimates for potential PrEP use in our state. Statewide estimates of key populations by state and county type will enable health officials to set informed goals and track progress toward optimizing PrEP uptake. This formula may be applicable to other states with similar epidemics and resources. .
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O26:H11 is an emerging cause of disease with serious potential consequences in children. The epidemiology and clinical spectrum of O26:H11 are incompletely understood. We investigated an outbreak of O26:H11 infection among children younger than 48 months of age and employees at a child care center. METHODS: Every employee at the center (n = 20) and every child <48 months (n = 55) were tested for STEC and administered a questionnaire. Thirty environmental health inspections and site visits were conducted. A cohorting strategy for disease control was implemented. RESULTS: Eighteen confirmed and 27 suspect cases were detected. There were no hospitalizations. The illness rate was 60% for children and employees. The risk of being a case in children <36 months was twice the risk among children of 36 to 47 months (risk ratio: 2.10; 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 4.42). The median duration of shedding among symptomatic confirmed cases was 30.5 days (range: 14-52 days). Four (22%) confirmed cases were asymptomatic and 3 (17%) shed intermittently. Nearly half (49%) of the household contacts of confirmed cases developed a diarrheal illness. The outbreak was propagated by person-to-person transmission; cohorting was an effective disease control strategy. CONCLUSIONS: This was the largest reported outbreak of O26:H11 infection in the United States and the largest reported non-O157 STEC outbreak in a US child care center. Non-O157 STEC infection is a differential diagnosis for outbreaks of diarrhea in child care settings. Aggressive disease control measures were effective but should be evaluated for outbreaks in other settings.