Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. IMPLICATIONS: Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies were combined with future market growth scenarios, estimated technology advancements, and best practices to examine the climate benefit of future fuel switching. The analysis indicates the necessary targets of efficiency, methane emissions, market penetration, and best practices necessary to enable a pathway for natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of the heavy-duty transportation sector.

Pump-to-Wheels Methane Emissions from the Heavy-Duty Transportation Sector.

Pump-to-wheels (PTW) methane emissions from the heavy-duty (HD) transportation sector, which have climate change implications, are poorly documented. In this study, methane emissions from HD natural gas fueled vehicles and the compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueling stations that serve them were characterized. A novel measurement system was developed to quantify methane leaks and losses. Engine related emissions were characterized from twenty-two natural gas fueled transit buses, refuse trucks, and over-the-road (OTR) tractors. Losses from six LNG and eight CNG stations were characterized during compression, fuel delivery, storage, and from leaks. Cryogenic boil-off pressure rise and pressure control venting from LNG storage tanks were characterized using theoretical and empirical modeling. Field and laboratory observations of LNG storage tanks were used for model development and evaluation. PTW emissions were combined with a specific scenario to view emissions as a percent of throughput. Vehicle tailpipe and crankcase emissions were the highest sources of methane. Data from this research are being applied by the authors to develop models to forecast methane emissions from the future HD transportation sector.

Evolutionary algorithm for vehicle driving cycle generation.

Modeling transit bus emissions and fuel economy requires a large amount of experimental data over wide ranges of operational conditions. Chassis dynamometer tests are typically performed using representative driving cycles defined based on vehicle instantaneous speed as sequences of "microtrips", which are intervals between consecutive vehicle stops. Overall significant parameters of the driving cycle, such as average speed, stops per mile, kinetic intensity, and others, are used as independent variables in the modeling process. Performing tests at all the necessary combinations of parameters is expensive and time consuming. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for building driving cycles at prescribed independent variable values using experimental data through the concatenation of "microtrips" isolated from a limited number of standard chassis dynamometer test cycles. The selection of the adequate "microtrips" is achieved through a customized evolutionary algorithm. The genetic representation uses microtrip definitions as genes. Specific mutation, crossover, and karyotype alteration operators have been defined. The Roulette-Wheel selection technique with elitist strategy drives the optimization process, which consists of minimizing the errors to desired overall cycle parameters. This utility is part of the Integrated Bus Information System developed at West Virginia University.

Expressing cycles and their emissions on the basis of properties and results from other cycles.

A method is proposed to predict vehicle emissions over a driving cycle on the basis of the vehicle's emissions measured over other driving cycles and the properties of these cycles. These properties include average velocity, average inertial power, and average acceleration. This technique was demonstrated and verified using data from the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) E-55/59 emissions inventory program using the statistical properties of the cycles used for measurement in E-55/59. These cycles were Idle mode, Creep mode, Cruise mode, and Transient mode of the 5-Mode CARB H-HDDT, and their intensive properties were average velocity, average acceleration, and average inertial power. The predicted emissions were from the vehicle driven over the U.S. heavy-duty urban dynamometer driving schedule (UDDS). The emissions data were collected from 56 heavy-duty trucks operating at a test weight of 56000 lbs. The predicted emissions data for the UDDS can be expressed as a linear combination of emissions from Idle, Transient, and Cruise modes, and the weighting factors for the linear combination can be determined without prior knowledge of the UDDS emissions themselves. Different combinations of cycles were employed to predict UDDS emissions, and the combination of Idle, Transient, and Cruise modes was found to be the most suitable. For the 56 heavy-duty trucks, the coefficient of determination (R2) in predicting carbon dioxide (CO2) was 0.80, oxides of nitrogen (NOx) was 0.89, and total particulate matter (PM) was 0.71. The average errors between the predicted and measured cycle emissions were 4.2%, 7.8%, and 46.8%, respectively. As with most emissions modeling tools, CO2 and NOx were better predicted than PM. The generic use of the technique was further demonstrated by predicting the emissions expected to arise from operation over the European Transient Cycle (ETC).

Development of a heavy heavy-duty diesel engine schedule for representative measurement of emissions.

The Advanced Collaborative Emissions Study (ACES) has the objective of characterizing the emissions and assessing the possible health impacts of the 2007-2010 heavy-duty diesel engines and their control systems. The program seeks to examine emissions from engines operated in a realistic duty cycle and requires the development of an engine test schedule described in this paper. Field data on engine operation were available from Engine Control Unit (ECU) broadcasts from seven heavy heavy-duty trucks (HHDDT) tested during the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) E-55/59 study. These trucks were exercised at three weights (30,000 lb [13,610 kg], 56,000 lb [25,400 kg], and 66,000 lb [29,940 kg]) through four different active modes of a chassis test schedule that were developed from the data of in-use HHDDT operation in the state of California. The trucks were equipped with heavy-duty engines made by three major U.S. engine manufacturers with a range of model years from 1998 to 2003. This paper reports on the development of four engine test modes, termed creep, transient, cruise, and high-speed cruise (HHDDT_S), which correspond to the E-55/59 HHDDT chassis test modes. The creep and transient modes represent urban travel, and the cruise and HHDDT_S modes represent freeway operation. The test mode creation used the method of joining selected truck trips together while ensuring that they offered a reasonable statistical representation of the whole database by using a least-square errors method. Least-square errors between test modes and the database are less than 5%. The four test modes are presented in normalized engine

Idle emissions from medium heavy-duty diesel and gasoline trucks.

Idle emissions data from 19 medium heavy-duty diesel and gasoline trucks are presented in this paper. Emissions from these trucks were characterized using full-flow exhaust dilution as part of the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) Project E-55/59. Idle emissions data were not available from dedicated measurements, but were extracted from the continuous emissions data on the low-speed transient mode of the medium heavy-duty truck (MHDTLO) cycle. The four gasoline trucks produced very low oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and negligible particulate matter (PM) during idle. However, carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HCs) from these four trucks were approximately 285 and 153 g/hr on average, respectively. The gasoline trucks consumed substantially more fuel at an hourly rate (0.84 gal/hr) than their diesel counterparts (0.44 gal/hr) during idling. The diesel trucks, on the other hand, emitted higher NOx (79 g/hr) and comparatively higher PM (4.1 g/hr), on average, than the gasoline trucks (3.8 g/hr of NOx and 0.9 g/hr of PM, on average). Idle NOx emissions from diesel trucks were high for post-1992 model year engines, but no trends were observed for fuel consumption. Idle emissions and fuel consumption from the medium heavy-duty diesel trucks (MHDDTs) were marginally lower than those from the heavy heavy-duty diesel trucks (HHDDTs), previously reported in the literature.

Variations in speciated emissions from spark-ignition and compression-ignition motor vehicles in California's south coast air basin.

The U.S. Department of Energy Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study examined the sources of uncertainties in using an organic compound-based chemical mass balance receptor model to quantify the contributions of spark-ignition (SI) and compression-ignition (CI) engine exhaust to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5). This paper presents the chemical composition profiles of SI and CI engine exhaust from the vehicle-testing portion of the study. Chemical analysis of source samples consisted of gravimetric mass, elements, ions, organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC) by the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Speciation Trends Network (STN) thermal/optical methods, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), hopanes, steranes, alkanes, and polar organic compounds. More than half of the mass of carbonaceous particles emitted by heavy-duty diesel trucks was EC (IMPROVE) and emissions from SI vehicles contained predominantly OC. Although total carbon (TC) by the IMPROVE and STN protocols agreed well for all of the samples, the STN/IMPROVE ratios for EC from SI exhaust decreased with decreasing sample loading. SI vehicles, whether low or high emitters, emitted greater amounts of high-molecular-weight particulate PAHs (benzo[ghi]perylene, indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, and coronene) than did CI vehicles. Diesel emissions contained higher abundances of two- to four-ring semivolatile PAHs. Diacids were emitted by CI vehicles but are also prevalent in secondary organic aerosols, so they cannot be considered unique tracers. Hopanes and steranes were present in lubricating oil with similar composition for both gasoline and diesel vehicles and were negligible in gasoline or diesel fuels. CI vehicles emitted greater total amounts of hopanes and steranes on a mass per mile basis, but abundances were comparable to SI exhaust normalized to TC emissions within measurement uncertainty. The combustion-produced high-molecular-weight PAHs were found in used gasoline motor oil but not in fresh oil and are negligible in used diesel engine oil. The contributions of lubrication oils to abundances of these PAHs in the exhaust were large in some cases and were variable with the age and consumption rate of the oil. These factors contributed to the observed variations in their abundances to total carbon or PM2.5 among the SI composition profiles.

Idle emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles: review and recent data.

Heavy-duty diesel vehicle idling consumes fuel and reduces atmospheric quality, but its restriction cannot simply be proscribed, because cab heat or air-conditioning provides essential driver comfort. A comprehensive tailpipe emissions database to describe idling impacts is not yet available. This paper presents a substantial data set that incorporates results from the West Virginia University transient engine test cell, the E-55/59 Study and the Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study. It covered 75 heavy-duty diesel engines and trucks, which were divided into two groups: vehicles with mechanical fuel injection (MFI) and vehicles with electronic fuel injection (EFI). Idle emissions of CO, hydrocarbon (HC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2) have been reported. Idle CO2 emissions allowed the projection of fuel consumption during idling. Test-to-test variations were observed for repeat idle tests on the same vehicle because of measurement variation, accessory loads, and ambient conditions. Vehicles fitted with EFI, on average, emitted approximately 20 g/hr of CO, 6 g/hr of HC, 86 g/hr of NOx, 1 g/hr of PM, and 4636 g/hr of CO2 during idle. MFI equipped vehicles emitted approximately 35 g/hr of CO, 23 g/hr of HC, 48 g/hr of NOx, 4 g/hr of PM, and 4484 g/hr of CO2, on average, during idle. Vehicles with EFI emitted less idle CO, HC, and PM, which could be attributed to the efficient combustion and superior fuel atomization in EFI systems. Idle NOx, however, increased with EFI, which corresponds with the advancing of timing to improve idle combustion. Fuel injection management did not have any effect on CO2 and, hence, fuel consumption. Use of air conditioning without increasing engine speed increased idle CO2, NOx, PM, HC, and fuel consumption by 25% on average. When the engine speed was elevated from 600 to 1100 revolutions per minute, CO2 and NOx emissions and fuel consumption increased by >150%, whereas PM and HC emissions increased by approximately 100% and 70%, respectively. Six Detroit Diesel Corp. (DDC) Series 60 engines in engine test cell were found to emit less CO, NOx, and PM emissions and consumed fuel at only 75% of the level found in the chassis dynamometer data. This is because fan and compressor loads were absent in the engine test cell.