An examination of climate-driven flowering-time shifts at large spatial scales over 153 years in a common weedy annual.

PREMISE: Understanding species' responses to climate change is a critical challenge facing biologists today. Though many species are widespread, few studies of climate-driven shifts in flowering time have examined large continuous spatial scales for individual species. And even fewer studies have examined these shifts at time scales greater than a few decades. METHODS: We used digitized herbarium specimens and PRISM climate data to produce the spatially and temporally broadest-scale study of flowering time in a single species to date, spanning the contiguous United States and 153 years (1863-2016) for a widespread weedy annual, Triodanis perfoliata (Campanulaceae). We examined factors driving phenological shifts as well as the roles of geographic and temporal scale in understanding these trends. RESULTS: Year was a significant factor in both geospatial and climatic analyses, revealing that flowering time has advanced by ~9 days over the past ~150 years. We found that temperature as well as vapor pressure deficit, an understudied climatic parameter associated with evapotranspiration and water stress, were strongly associated with peak flowering. We also examined how sampling at different spatiotemporal scales influences the power to detect flowering-time shifts, finding that relatively large spatial and temporal scales are ideal for detecting flowering-time shifts in this widespread species. CONCLUSIONS: Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the interplay of geospatial factors at different scales to examine how species respond to climate change.

The influence of environmental factors on breeding system allocation at large spatial scales.

Plant breeding systems can vary widely among populations, yet few studies have investigated abiotic factors contributing to variation across a broad geographic range. Here we investigate variation in reproductive traits of Triodanis perfoliata (Campanulaceae), a species that exhibits dimorphic cleistogamy, a condition in which individual plants have both closed (selfing: cleistogamous: CL) and open (selfing or outcrossing: chasmogamous: CH) flowers. Chasmogamous production is theorized to be more costly because CH flowers have a larger exposed surface area and thus are more likely to lose more water than CL flowers. We examine relationships between abiotic conditions (temperature, precipitation and soil characteristics) and variation in breeding systems across 14 widespread populations using ordinary least squares models. We found that a large proportion of breeding system variation was described by climate and soil variables (R 2 = 0.65-0.92). These results support the hypothesis that variation in the environment drives variation in breeding system allocation. Our broad geographic analyses provide a framework for mechanistic studies of cleistogamy, and employ a novel approach for examining reproductive traits and environmental variation at large scales. Given that two major components of our models were temperature and precipitation, our study further emphasizes the potential for ongoing climate change to alter plant breeding systems.

The best of both worlds? A review of delayed selfing in flowering plants.

PREMISE OF STUDY: In a seminal body of theory, Lloyd showed that the fitness consequences of selfing will depend on its timing in anthesis. Selfing that occurs after opportunities for outcrossing or pollen dispersal can provide reproductive assurance when pollinators are limited and is expected to incur little cost, even when inbreeding depression is high. As a result, delayed selfing is often interpreted as a "best-of-both-worlds" mating system that combines the advantages of selfing and outcrossing. METHODS: We surveyed 65 empirical studies of delayed selfing, recording floral mechanisms and examining information on inbreeding depression, autofertility, and other parameters to test the support for delayed selfing as a best-of-both-worlds strategy. KEY RESULTS: Phylogenetic distribution of the diverse floral mechanisms suggests that some basic floral structures may predispose plant taxa to evolve delayed selfing. Delayed selfing appears to serve as a best-of-both-worlds strategy in some but not all species. While the capacity for autonomous selfing is often high, it is lower, in some cases, than in related species with earlier modes of selfing. In other delayed-selfers, low inbreeding depression and reduced investment in corollas and pollen suggest limited benefits from outcrossing. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a growing literature on the subject, experimental evidence for delayed selfing is limited and major gaps in knowledge remain, particularly with respect to the stability of delayed selfing and the conditions that may favor transitions between delayed and earlier selfing. Finally, we suggest a potential role of delayed selfing in facilitating transitions from self-incompatibility to selfing.

Educational intervention for physicians to address the risk of opioid abuse.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of a pilot intervention for physicians to support their treatment of patients at risk for opioid abuse. SETTING, DESIGN AND PATIENTS, PARTICIPANTS: Patients at risk for opioid abuse enrolled in Medicare plans were identified from July 1, 2012 to April 30, 2014 (N = 2,391), based on a published predictive model, and linked to 4,353 opioid-prescribing physicians. Patient-physician clusters were randomly assigned to one of four interventions using factorial design. INTERVENTIONS: Physicians received one of the following: Arm 1, patient information; Arm 2, links to educational materials for diagnosis and management of pain; Arm 3, both patient information and links to educational materials; or Arm 4, no communication. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Difference-in-difference analyses compared opioid and pain prescriptions, chronic high-dose opioid use, uncoordinated opioid use, and opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits. Logistic regression compared diagnosis of opioid abuse between cases and controls postindex. RESULTS: Mailings had no significant impact on numbers of opioid or pain medications filled, chronic high-dose opioid use, uncoordinated opioid use, ED visits, or rate of diagnosed opioid abuse. Relative to Arm 4, odds ratios (95% CI) for diagnosed opioid abuse were Arm 1, 0.95(0.63-1.42); Arm 2, 0.83(0.55-1.27); Arm 3, 0.72(0.46-1.13). While 84.7 percent had ≥1 psychiatric diagnoses during preindex (p = 0.89 between arms), only 9.5 percent had ≥1 visit with mental health specialists (p = 0.53 between arms). CONCLUSIONS: Although this intervention did not affect pain-related outcomes, future interventions involving care coordination across primary care and mental health may impact opioid abuse and improve quality of life of patients with pain.

The messenger matters: Pollinator functional group influences mating system dynamics.

The incredible diversity of plant mating systems has fuelled research in evolutionary biology for over a century. Currently, there is broad concern about the impact of rapidly changing pollinator communities on plant populations. Very few studies, however, examine patterns and mechanisms associated with multiple paternity from cross-pollen loads. Often, foraging pollinators collect a mixed pollen load that may result in the deposition of pollen from different sires to receptive stigmas. Coincident deposition of self- and cross-pollen leads to interesting mating system dynamics and has been investigated in numerous species. But, mixed pollen loads often consist of a diversity of cross-pollen and result in multiple sires of seeds within a fruit. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Rhodes, Fant, and Skogen () examine how pollinator identity and spatial isolation influence multiple paternity within fruits of a self-incompatible evening primrose. The authors demonstrate that pollen pool diversity varies between two pollinator types, hawkmoths and diurnal solitary bees. Further, progeny from more isolated plants were less likely to have multiple sires regardless of the pollinator type. Moving forward, studies of mating system dynamics should consider the implications of multiple paternity and move beyond the self- and cross-pollination paradigm. Rhodes et al. () demonstrate the importance of understanding the roles that functionally diverse pollinators play in mating system dynamics.

Project Baseline: An unprecedented resource to study plant evolution across space and time.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Project Baseline is a seed bank that offers an unprecedented opportunity to examine spatial and temporal dimensions of microevolution during an era of rapid environmental change. Over the upcoming 50 years, biologists will withdraw genetically representative samples of past populations from this time capsule of seeds and grow them contemporaneously with modern samples to detect any phenotypic and molecular evolution that has occurred during the intervening time. METHODS: We carefully developed this living genome bank using protocols to enhance its experimental value by collecting from multiple populations and species across a broad geographical range in sites that are likely to be preserved into the future. Seeds are accessioned with site and population data and are stored by maternal line under conditions that maximize seed longevity. This open-access resource will be available to researchers at regular intervals to evaluate contemporary evolution. KEY RESULTS: To date, the Project Baseline collection includes 100-200 maternal lines of each of 61 species collected from over 831 populations on sites that are likely to be preserved into the future across the United States (∼78,000 maternal lines). Our strategically designed collection circumvents some problems that can cloud the results of "resurrection" studies involving naturally preserved or existing seed collections that are available fortuitously. CONCLUSIONS: The resurrection approach can be coupled with long-established and newer techniques over the next five decades to elucidate genetic change and thereby vastly improve our understanding of temporal and spatial changes in phenotype and the evolutionary processes underlying it.

Evolutionary insights from studies of geographic variation: Contemporary variation and looking to the future.

In an age of rapid global change, it is imperative that we continue to improve our understanding of factors that govern genetic differentiation in plants to inform biologically reasonable predictions for the future and enlighten conservation and restoration practices. In this special issue, we have assembled a set of original research and reviews that employ diverse approaches, both classic and contemporary, to illuminate patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation, probe the underlying evolutionary processes that have contributed to these patterns, build predictive models, and test evolutionary hypotheses. Our goal was to underscore the unique insights that can be obtained through the complementary and distinct studies of plant populations across species' geographic ranges.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. METHODS: We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. KEY RESULTS: We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning.

Variation in the flowering time orthologs BrFLC and BrSOC1 in a natural population of Brassica rapa.

Understanding the genetic basis of natural phenotypic variation is of great importance, particularly since selection can act on this variation to cause evolution. We examined expression and allelic variation in candidate flowering time loci in Brassica rapa plants derived from a natural population and showing a broad range in the timing of first flowering. The loci of interest were orthologs of the Arabidopsis genes FLC and SOC1 (BrFLC and BrSOC1, respectively), which in Arabidopsis play a central role in the flowering time regulatory network, with FLC repressing and SOC1 promoting flowering. In B. rapa, there are four copies of FLC and three of SOC1. Plants were grown in controlled conditions in the lab. Comparisons were made between plants that flowered the earliest and latest, with the difference in average flowering time between these groups ∼30 days. As expected, we found that total expression of BrSOC1 paralogs was significantly greater in early than in late flowering plants. Paralog-specific primers showed that expression was greater in early flowering plants in the BrSOC1 paralogs Br004928, Br00393 and Br009324, although the difference was not significant in Br009324. Thus expression of at least 2 of the 3 BrSOC1 orthologs is consistent with their predicted role in flowering time in this natural population. Sequences of the promoter regions of the BrSOC1 orthologs were variable, but there was no association between allelic variation at these loci and flowering time variation. For the BrFLC orthologs, expression varied over time, but did not differ between the early and late flowering plants. The coding regions, promoter regions and introns of these genes were generally invariant. Thus the BrFLC orthologs do not appear to influence flowering time in this population. Overall, the results suggest that even for a trait like flowering time that is controlled by a very well described genetic regulatory network, understanding the underlying genetic basis of natural variation in such a quantitative trait is challenging.

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations.

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species' life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change.

The role of inbreeding depression and mating system in the evolution of heterostyly.

We investigated the role of morph-based differences in the expression of inbreeding depression in loss of the mid-styled morph from populations of tristylous Oxalis alpina. The extent of self-compatibility (SC) of reproductive morphs, the degree of self-fertilization, and the magnitude of inbreeding depression were investigated in three populations of O. alpina differing in their tristylous incompatibility relationships. All three populations exhibited significant inbreeding depression. In two populations with highly modified tristylous incompatibility, manifested as increased reciprocal compatibility between short- and long-styled morphs, substantial SC and self-fertilization of mid-styled morphs were detected, and expected to result in expression of inbreeding depression in the progeny of mid-styled morphs in the natural populations. In contrast, significant self-fertility of the mid-styled morph was absent from the population with typical tristylous incompatibility, and no self-fertilization could be detected. Although self-fertilization and expression of inbreeding depression should result in selection against the mid-styled morph in the later stages of the transition from tristyly to distyly, in O. alpina selection against the mid-styled morph in the early phases of the evolution of distyly is likely due to genic selection against mid-alleles associated with modified tristylous incompatibility, rather than expression of inbreeding depression.

Purging of inbreeding depression within a population of Oxalis alpina (Oxalidaceae).

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Variation among individuals in levels of inbreeding depression associated with selfing levels could influence mating system evolution by purging deleterious alleles, but empirical evidence for this association is limited. METHODS: We investigated the association of family-level inbreeding depression and presumed inbreeding history in a tristylous population of Oxalis alpina (Oxalidaceae). KEY RESULTS: Mid-styled individuals possessed the greatest degree of self-compatibility (SC) and produced more autogamous capsules than short- or long-styled individuals. Offspring of highly self-compatible mid-styled individuals showed reduced inbreeding depression. Mid-styled plants that produced capsules autogamously exhibited reduced stigma-anther separation compared to mid-styled plants that produced no capsules autogamously. Reduced inbreeding depression was not correlated with stigma-anther separation, suggesting that self-compatibility and autogamy evolve before morphological changes in stigma-anther separation. CONCLUSIONS: Purging of inbreeding depression occurred in SC mid-styled maternal families. Low inbreeding depression in SC mid-styled plants may lead to retention of the mid-styled morph in populations, despite the occurrence of higher selfing rates in mid-styled relative to short- or long-styled morphs. Variation among individuals in levels of self-fertilization within populations may lead to associations between inbreeding lineages and lower levels of inbreeding depression, influencing the evolution of mating systems.

Timing of self-compatibility, flower longevity, and potential for male outcross success in Leptosiphon jepsonii (Polemoniaceae).

When fertilization triggers flower senescence, early autonomous selfing may cause flowers to senesce before pollen has dispersed, discounting unused pollen. Selfing-induced flower senescence was examined in Leptosiphon jepsonii, a species that varies in the timing of self-compatibility. In field and greenhouse experiments, fertilization had a large effect on flower senescence; most outcrossed flowers senesced after 1 d whereas emasculated flowers lasted 2-5 d. In a comparison of inbred lines from three populations, longevity of autonomously selfed flowers of early self-compatible individuals was significantly less than that of late self-compatible individuals. In field experiments, autonomously selfed flowers were shorter-lived in a predominantly early-selfing population than in a predominantly late-selfing population. Pollen was available and viable beyond the first day of anthesis, suggesting that reductions in flower longevity caused by autonomous selfing could incur a cost to male outcross fitness. We argue that this effect is likely to be most pronounced under intermediate rates of pollinator visitation. Observed pollinator visitation rates ranged from 0.035-0.775 visits per flower per day, indicating a potential for selfing-induced flower senescence to incur pollen discounting in Leptosiphon jepsonii.