Diagnostic Validity of Chronic Kidney Disease in Health Claims Data Over Time: Results from a Cohort of Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Germany.

Purpose: The validity of ICD-10 diagnostic codes for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in health claims data has not been sufficiently studied in the general population and over time. Patients and Methods: We used data from the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), a prospective longitudinal cohort of community-dwelling individuals aged ≥70 years in Berlin, Germany. With estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as reference, we assessed the diagnostic validity (sensitivity, specificity, positive [PPV], and negative predictive values [NPV]) of different claims-based ICD-10 codes for CKD stages G3-5 (eGFR <60mL/min/1.73m²: ICD-10 N18.x-N19), G3 (eGFR 30-<60mL/min/1.73m²: N18.3), and G4-5 (eGFR <30mL/min/1.73m²: N18.4-5). We analysed trends over five study visits (2009-2019). Results: We included data of 2068 participants at baseline (2009-2011) and 870 at follow-up 4 (2018-2019), of whom 784 (38.9%) and 440 (50.6%) had CKD G3-5, respectively. At baseline, sensitivity for CKD in claims data ranged from 0.25 (95%-confidence interval [CI] 0.22-0.28) to 0.51 (95%-CI 0.48-0.55) for G3-5, depending on the included ICD-10 codes, 0.20 (95%-CI 0.18-0.24) for G3, and 0.36 (95%-CI 0.25-0.49) for G4-5. Over the course of 10 years, sensitivity increased by 0.17 to 0.29 in all groups. Specificity, PPVs, and NPVs remained mostly stable over time and ranged from 0.82-0.99, 0.47-0.89, and 0.66-0.98 across all study visits, respectively. Conclusion: German claims data showed overall agreeable performance in identifying older adults with CKD, while differentiation between stages was limited. Our results suggest increasing sensitivity over time possibly attributable to improved CKD diagnosis and awareness.

Incidence of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury and trajectories of glomerular filtration rate in older adults.

BACKGROUND: In older adults, epidemiological data on incidence rates (IR) of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (AKI) are scarce. Also, little is known about trajectories of kidney function before hospitalization with AKI. METHODS: We used data from biennial face-to-face study visits from the prospective Berlin Initiative Study (BIS) including community-dwelling participants aged 70+ with repeat estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine and cystatin C. Primary outcome was first incident of hospital-acquired AKI assessed through linked insurance claims data. In a nested case-control study, kidney function decline prior to hospitalization with and without AKI was investigated using eGFR trajectories estimated with mixed-effects models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular comorbidities. RESULTS: Out of 2020 study participants (52.9% women; mean age 80.4 years) without prior AKI, 383 developed a first incident AKI, 1518 were hospitalized without AKI, and 119 were never hospitalized during a median follow-up of 8.8 years. IR per 1000 person years for hospital-acquired AKI was 26.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): 24.1-29.6); higher for men than women (33.9 (29.5-38.7) vs. 21.2 (18.1-24.6)). IR (CI) were lowest for persons aged 70-75 (13.1; 10.0-16.8) and highest for ≥ 90 years (54.6; 40.0-72.9). eGFR trajectories declined more steeply in men and women with AKI compared to men and women without AKI years before hospitalization. These differences in eGFR trajectories remained after adjustment for traditional comorbidities. CONCLUSION: AKI is a frequent in-hospital complication in individuals aged 70 + showing a striking increase of IR with age. eGFR decline was steeper in elderly patients with AKI compared to elderly patients without AKI years prior to hospitalization emphasising the need for long-term kidney function monitoring pre-admission to improve risk stratification.

Control of blood pressure in older patients with heart failure and the risk of mortality: a population-based prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: treatment goals for blood pressure (BP) lowering in older patients with heart failure (HF) are unclear. OBJECTIVE: to assess whether BP control < 140/90 mmHg is associated with a decreased risk of mortality in older HF patients. DESIGN: population-based prospective cohort study. SETTING/SUBJECTS: participants of the Berlin Initiative Study, a prospective cohort of community-dwelling older adults launched in 2009. Clinical information was obtained in face-to-face interviews and linked to administrative healthcare data. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality associated with normalised BP (systolic BP < 140 mmHg and diastolic BP < 90 mmHg) compared with non-normalised BP (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg) in HF patients. The primary analysis considered only baseline BP ('time-fixed'); an additional analysis updated BP during follow-up ('time-dependent'). RESULTS: at baseline, 544 patients were diagnosed with HF and treated with antihypertensive drugs (mean age 82.8 years; 45.4% female). During a median follow-up of 7.5 years and compared with non-normalised BP, normalised BP was associated with similar risks of cardiovascular death (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.84-1.85) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.89-1.51) in the time-fixed analysis but with increased risks of cardiovascular death (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.23-2.61) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.15-1.90) in the time-dependent analysis. CONCLUSIONS: BP control < 140/90 mmHg was not associated with a decreased risk of mortality in older HF patients. The increased risk in the time-dependent analysis requires further corroboration.

Is there an association between social determinants and care dependency risk? A multi-state model analysis of a longitudinal study.

Despite a growing body of knowledge about the morbidities and functional impairment that frequently lead to care dependency, the role of social determinants is not yet well understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of social determinants on care dependency onset and progression. We used data from the Berlin Initiative Study, a prospective, population-based cohort study including 2,069 older participants living in Berlin. Care dependency was defined as requiring substantial assistance in at least two activities of daily living for 90 min daily (level 1) or 3+ hours daily (level 2). Multi-state time to event regression modeling was used to estimate the effects of social determinants (partnership status, education, income, and sex), morbidities, and health behaviors, characteristics, and conditions. During the study period, 556 participants (27.5%) changed their status of care dependency. Participants without a partner at baseline were at a higher risk to become care-dependent than participants with a partner (hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24 (1.02-1.51)). After adjustment for other social determinants, morbidities and health behaviors, characteristics, and conditions the risk decreased to a HR of 1.19 (95% CI: 0.79-1.79). Results indicate that older people without a partner may tend to be at higher risk of care dependency onset but not at higher risk of care dependency progression. Clinicians should inquire about and consider patients' partnership status as they evaluate care needs.

Prevalence of reduced kidney function and albuminuria in older adults: the Berlin Initiative Study.

BACKGROUND: Although CKD is said to increase among older adults, epidemiologic data on kidney function in people ≥70 years of age are scarce. The Berlin Initiative Study (BIS) aims to fill this gap by evaluating the CKD burden in older adults. METHODS: The BIS is a prospective population-based cohort study whose participants are members of Germany's biggest insurance company. This cross-sectional analysis (i) gives a detailed baseline characterization of the participants, (ii) analyses the representativeness of the cohort's disease profile, (iii) assesses GFR and albuminuria levels across age categories, (iv) associates cardiovascular risk factors with GFR as well as albuminuria and (v) compares means of GFR values according to different estimating equations with measured GFR. RESULTS: A total of 2069 participants (52.6% female, mean age 80.4 years) were enrolled: 26.1% were diabetic, 78.8% were on antihypertensive medication, 8.7% had experienced a stroke, 14% a myocardial infarction, 22.6% had cancer, 17.8% were anaemic and 26.5% were obese. The distribution of comorbidities in the BIS cohort was very similar to that in the insurance 'source population'. Creatinine and cystatin C as well as the albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) increased with increasing age. After multivariate adjustments, reduced GFR and elevated ACR were associated with most cardiovascular risk factors. The prevalence of a GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ranged from 38 to 62% depending on the estimation equation used. CONCLUSIONS: The BIS is a very well-characterized, representative cohort of older adults. Participants with an ACR ≥30 had significantly higher odds for most cardiovascular risk factors compared with an ACR <30 mg/g. Kidney function declined and ACR rose with increasing age.