Budget impact of oral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in adults at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19 in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (NMV/r) is indicated for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in adults who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19. NMV/r has also been authorized for emergency use by the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in pediatric patients (aged 226512 years and weighing at least 40 kg) who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19. Understanding the budget impact of introducing NMV/r for the treatment of adults with COVID-19 is of key interest to US payers. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual budget impact of introducing NMV/r in a US commercial health plan setting in the current Omicron COVID-19 era. METHODS: A budget impact model was developed to assess the impact of NMV/r on health care costs in a hypothetical 1-million-member commercial health insurance plan over a 1-year period in the US population; clinical and cost inputs were derived from published literature with a focus on studies in the recent COVID-19 era that included vaccinated population and predominance of the Omicron variant. In the base-case analysis, it was assumed the only effect of NMV/r was a reduction in incidence (not severity) of hospitalization or death; its potential effect on post-COVID conditions was assessed in a scenario analysis. Outcomes included the number of hospitalizations, total cost, per patient per year (PPPY) costs, and per member per month (PMPM) costs. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty around key model inputs. RESULTS: An estimated 29,999 adults were eligible and sought treatment with oral antiviral for COVID-19 over 1 year. The availability of NMV/r was estimated to reduce the number of hospitalizations by 647 with a total budget impact of $2,733,745, $91 PPPY, and $0.23 PMPM. NMV/r was cost saving when including post-COVID conditions with a -$1,510,780 total budget impact, a PPPY cost of -$50, and a PMPM cost of -$0.13. Sensitivity analyses indicated results were most sensitive to the risk of hospitalization under supportive care, risk of hospitalization with NMV/r treatment and cost of NMV/r. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with NMV/r in the current COVID-19 era is estimated to result in substantial cost offsets because of reductions in hospitalization and modest budget impact to potential overall cost savings.

Estimated global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines in the pre-omicron era using real-world empirical data.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available describing the global impact of COVID-19 vaccines. This study estimated the global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines before the emergence of the Omicron variant. METHODS: A static model covering 215 countries/territories compared the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination to no vaccination during 13 December 2020-30 September 2021. After adjusting for underreporting of cases and deaths, base case analyses estimated total cases and deaths averted, and direct outpatient and productivity costs saved through averted health outcomes. Sensitivity analyses applied alternative model assumptions. RESULTS: COVID-19 vaccines prevented an estimated median (IQR) of 151.7 (133.7-226.1) million cases and 620.5 (411.1-698.1) thousand deaths globally through September 2021. In sensitivity analysis applying an alternative underreporting assumption, median deaths averted were 2.1 million. Estimated direct outpatient cost savings were $21.2 ($18.9-30.9) billion and indirect savings of avoided productivity loss were $135.1 ($121.1-206.4) billion, yielding a total cost savings of $155 billion globally through averted infections. CONCLUSIONS: Using a conservative modeling approach that considered direct effects only, we estimated that COVID-19 vaccines have averted millions of infections and deaths, generating billions of cost savings worldwide, which underscore the continued importance of vaccination in public health response to COVID-19.

Elevated Blood Lead Levels by Length of Time From Resettlement to Health Screening in Kentucky Refugee Children.

OBJECTIVES: To examine elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) in refugee children by postrelocation duration with control for several covariates. METHODS: We assessed EBLLs (≥ 5µg/dL) between 2012 and 2016 of children younger than 15 years (n = 1950) by the duration of resettlement to health screening by using logistic regression, with control for potential confounders (gender, region of birth, age of housing, and intestinal infestation) in a cross-sectional study. RESULTS: Prevalence of EBLLs was 11.2%. Length of time from resettlement to health screening was inversely associated with EBLLs (tertile 2 unadjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.56, 1.12; tertile 3 OR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.42, 0.90; tertile 2 adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.39, 0.97; tertile 3 AOR = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.34, 0.93). There was a significant interaction between intestinal infestation and age of housing (P < .003), indicating significant risk in the joint exposure of intestinal infestation (a pica proxy) and age of house. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated blood lead levels were reduced with increasing length of time of resettlement in unadjusted and adjusted models. Improved housing, early education, and effective safe-house inspections may be necessary to address EBLLs in refugees.

Ruling out Legionella in community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the likelihood for Legionella sp. in community-acquired pneumonia is important because of differences in treatment regimens. Currently used antigen tests and culture have limited sensitivity with important time delays, making empirical broad-spectrum coverage necessary. Therefore, a score with 6 variables recently has been proposed. We sought to validate these parameters in an independent cohort. METHODS: We analyzed adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia from a large multinational database (Community Acquired Pneumonia Organization) who were treated between 2001 and 2012 with more than 4 of the 6 prespecified clinical variables available. Association and discrimination were assessed using logistic regression analysis and area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Of 1939 included patients, the infectious cause was known in 594 (28.9%), including Streptococcus pneumoniae in 264 (13.6%) and Legionella sp. in 37 (1.9%). The proposed clinical predictors fever, cough, hyponatremia, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, and platelet count were all associated or tended to be associated with Legionella cause. A logistic regression analysis including all these predictors showed excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.94). The original dichotomized score showed good discrimination (AUC, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.81) and a high negative predictive value of 99% for patients with less than 2 parameters present. CONCLUSIONS: With the use of a large independent patient sample from an international database, this analysis validates previously proposed clinical variables to accurately rule out Legionella sp., which may help to optimize initial empiric therapy.