National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2021.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2021 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2021 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2021 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2020, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the United States grew 4.9% compared to 2019, for a total of $535.3 billion. Utilization (a 2.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase, with price changes having minimal influence (a 0.3% increase). Adalimumab was the top drug in 2020, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $35.3 billion (a 4.6% decrease) and $98.4 billion (an 8.1% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals the decrease in expenditures was driven by reduced utilization. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2021. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2021, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4% to 6%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7% to 9% and 3% to 5%, respectively, compared to 2020. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Effect of Omega-3 Dosage on Cardiovascular Outcomes: An Updated Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression of Interventional Trials.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the effect of eicosapentaenoic (EPA) and docosahexaenoic (DHA) acids on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and the effect of dosage. METHODS: This study is designed as a random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression of randomized control trials with EPA/DHA supplementation. This is an update and expanded analysis of a previously published meta-analysis which covers all randomized control trials with EPA/DHA interventions and cardiovascular outcomes published before August 2019. The outcomes included are myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD) events, CVD events (a composite of MI, angina, stroke, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, sudden death, and non-scheduled cardiovascular surgical interventions), CHD mortality and fatal MI. The strength of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation framework. RESULTS: A total of 40 studies with a combined 135,267 participants were included. Supplementation was associated with reduced risk of MI (relative risk [RR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.96), high certainty number needed to treat (NNT) of 272; CHD events (RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.97), high certainty NNT of 192; fatal MI (RR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.91]), moderate certainty NNT = 128; and CHD mortality (RR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85 to 0.98), low certainty NNT = 431, but not CVD events (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.00). The effect is dose dependent for CVD events and MI. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. Supplementation with EPA and DHA is an effective lifestyle strategy for CVD prevention, and the protective effect probably increases with dosage.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2020.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2020 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2020 were reviewed, including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for specialty drugs, biosimilars, and diabetes medications. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2020 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2019, overall US pharmaceutical expenditures grew 5.4% compared to 2018, for a total of $507.9 billion. This increase was driven to similar degrees by prices, utilization, and new drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug in US expenditures in 2019, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $36.9 billion (a 1.5% increase from 2018) and $90.3 billion (an 11.8% increase from 2018) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals growth was driven by new products and price increases. Several new drugs that will likely influence spending are expected to be approved in 2020. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. CONCLUSION: For 2020 we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4.0% to 6.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 9.0% to 11.0% and 2.0% to 4.0%, respectively, compared to 2019. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

Metabolic derangements and reduced survival of bile-extracted Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus).

BACKGROUND: Across China and Southeast Asia, an estimated 17,000 bears are currently farmed for bile, primarily for traditional medicines. Depending on country, bile is extracted daily via transabdominal gallbladder fistulas, indwelling catheters, or needle aspiration. Despite claims that bears do not develop adverse effects from bile extraction, health issues identified in bears removed from bile farms include bile-extraction site infections, abdominal hernias, peritonitis, cholecystitis, hepatic neoplasia, cardiac disease, skeletal abnormalities, and abnormal behaviors. We present a comprehensive assessment of the effects of bile farming by comparing serum biochemical and hematological values of bears from farms that were bile-extracted (BE) and bears from farms not bile-extracted (FNE) with bears from non-farm captive (ZOO) and free-range (FR) environments. We hypothesized BE bears would have significant laboratory abnormalities compared to all non-extracted bear groups. We also hypothesized BE bears would have reduced long-term survival compared to FNE bears despite removal from farms. RESULTS: BE bears exhibited the highest values and greatest variation (on a population level) in laboratory parameters compared to all non-extracted bear groups particularly for alanine transaminase, gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT), total bilirubin (TBIL), alkaline phosphatase (ALKP), blood urea nitrogen, creatinine (CREA), and total white blood cell count. Significant differences were detected between bear groups when accounting for season, sex, and/or age. BE bears exhibited greater mean serum GGT compared to all non-extracted bear groups, and the odds of having elevated TBIL were 7.3 times greater for BE bears, consistent with hepatobiliary disease. Biochemical parameter elevations in BE bears persisted up to 14 years post-rescue, consistent with long-term effects of bile-extraction. BE bears that arrived with elevated CREA and ALKP had median survival times of 1 and 4 years respectively, and regardless of laboratory abnormalities, BE bears had significantly shorter survival times compared to FNE bears. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide strong evidence that bile extraction practices not only represent a temporary constraint for bears' welfare, but confer distinct long-term adverse health consequences. Routine laboratory panels may be insensitive to detect the extent of underlying illness in BE bears as these bears have significantly reduced survival regardless of biochemical assessment compared to FNE bears.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2019.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2019 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2018 were obtained from the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. New drug approvals, patent expirations, and other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2019 were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2019 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made through a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: U.S. prescription sales in calendar year 2018 totaled $476.2 billion, a 5.5% increase from 2017 spending. The top 3 drugs by expenditures were adalimumab ($19.1 billion), insulin glargine ($9.3 billion), and etanercept ($8.0 billion). Prescription expenditures in nonfederal hospitals totaled $35.8 billion, a 4.8% increase from 2017. Expenditures in clinics in 2018 increased by 13.0% to $80.5 billion. The increase in spending in nonfederal hospitals was largely driven by new products and increased utilization of existing products. The list of the top 25 drugs by expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics was dominated by specialty drugs. CONCLUSION: We predict continued moderate growth of 4-6% in overall drug expenditures (across the entire U.S. market). We expect the clinic sector to continue to experience high (11-13%) growth in drug spending in 2019. Finally, for nonfederal hospitals we anticipate growth in the range of 3-5%. These estimates are at the national level. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2019.

Associations of Sedentary Behavior and Abdominal Muscle Density: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Sedentary behaviors (SB) may exacerbate loss of muscle mass and function, independent of physical activity levels. This study examined the associations of SB with abdominal muscle area and density, a marker of muscle quality, in adults. METHODS: A total of 1895 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis completed detailed health history, physical activity and SB questionnaires, computed tomography to quantify body composition, and measurements of inflammatory markers. Analyses included linear and nonlinear regression. RESULTS: The mean age and body mass index were 64.6 years and 28 kg·m-2, respectively, and 50% were women. On average, participants engaged in 28 metabolic equivalent hours·week-1 of SB. With adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, physical activity, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and inflammation, multivariable regression modeling revealed a nonlinear (quadratic) relationship between SB and locomotor, stability, and total abdominal muscle density (P < .01) but not muscle area. The SB inflection point at which locomotor, stability, and total abdominal muscle density began to decrease was 38.2, 39.6, and 39.2 metabolic equivalent hours·week-1 of SB, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SB is associated with reduced muscle density when practiced as little as 5.5 metabolic equivalent hours·day-1. These findings may have important implications for SB guidelines for targeting skeletal muscle health in older adults.

An Exploration of the Spatiotemporal and Demographic Patterns of Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in West Africa Using Open Access Data Sources.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the utility of exploratory analytical techniques using publically available data in informing interventions in case of infectious diseases outbreaks. More exactly spatiotemporal and multivariate methods were used to characterize the dynamics of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa, and propose plausible relationships with demographic/social risk factors. The analysis showed that there was significant spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal dependence in the evolution of the disease. For the first part of the epidemic, the cases were highly clustered in a few administrative units, in the proximity of the point of origin of the outbreak, possibly offering the opportunity to stop the spread of the disease. Later in the epidemic, high clusters were observed, but only in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Although not definitely factors of risk, in the setting in which the epidemic arose, our analysis suggests infrastructure, access to and use of health services, and connectivity possibly accelerated and magnified the spread of EVD. Also, the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal patterns of epidemic can be clearly shown - with evident application in the early stages of management of epidemics. In particular, we found that the spatial-temporal analytic tool SaTScan may be used effectively during the evolution of an epidemic to identify areas for targeted intervention. In the case of EVD epidemic in West Africa, better data and integration local knowledge and customs may have been more useful to recognize the proper response.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2018.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2018 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2017 were obtained from the IQVIA (formerly QuintilesIMS) National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. New drug approvals, patent expirations, and other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2018 were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2018 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2017 calendar year were $455.9 billion, a 1.7% increase compared with 2016. The top drug based on expenditures was adalimumab ($17.1 billion), followed by insulin glargine and etanercept. Prescription expenditures in nonfederal hospitals totaled $34.2 billion, a 0.7% decrease in 2017 compared with 2016. Expenditures in clinics increased 10.9%, to a total of $70.8 billion. The decrease in spending in nonfederal hospitals was driven by lower utilization. The top 25 drugs by expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics were dominated by specialty drugs. CONCLUSION: We project a 3.0-5.0% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, a 11.0-13.0% increase in clinics, and a 0.0-2.0% increase in hospital drug spending in 2018. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2018.

Associations between physical activity, resilience, and quality of life in people with inflammatory bowel disease.

AIM: Research has shown that moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is associated with higher health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in healthy individuals. Recent studies have suggested that low- to moderate-intensity physical activity can be beneficial to HRQOL in people with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD); however, studies investigating associations between MVPA and HRQOL in this population are lacking. PURPOSE: To understand the relationships among walking, MVPA, resilience, and HRQOL in people with IBD. METHODS: People with IBD (n = 242) completed questions about physical activity, resilience and HRQOL. Pearson product-moment correlations and multiple regression analyses were used to identify associations between physical activity and HRQOL. Analysis of covariance was used to compare HRQOL over quartiles of walking and MVPA with demographic variables as covariates. RESULTS: Both walking and MVPA were independently associated with physical (ß = 0.21 and ß = 0.26, respectively; p ≤ 0.001) but not mental HRQOL (p > 0.05). Higher volumes of MVPA were significantly associated with physical HRQOL (quartile 1 40.3 ± 9.0 vs. quartile 4 47.4 ± 9.0; p < 0.001) while higher volumes of walking were associated with both physical and mental HRQOL (p ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that engaging in higher volumes of MVPA above 150 min/week and walking, particularly above 60 min/week, are associated with improved HRQOL in people with IBD. Research would benefit from investigating participation in MVPA as a coping strategy, in a longitudinal manner, to determine which modes of activity may be most beneficial to people with IBD.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2017.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2017 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2016 were obtained from the QuintilesIMS National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. Other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2017, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2017 for nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors) were made based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2016 calendar year were $448.2 billion, a 5.8% increase compared with 2015. More than half of the increase resulted from price hikes of existing drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug overall in 2016 expenditures ($13.6 billion); in clinics and nonfederal hospitals, infliximab was the top drug. Prescription expenditures in clinics and nonfederal hospitals totaled $63.7 billion (an 11.9% increase from 2015) and $34.5 billion (a 3.3% increase from 2015), respectively. In nonfederal hospitals and clinics, growth in spending was driven primarily by price increases of existing drugs and increased volume, respectively. CONCLUSION: We project a 6.0-8.0% increase in total drug expenditures across all settings, an 11.0-13.0% increase in clinics, and a 3.0-5.0% increase in hospital drug spending in 2017. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2017.

Mobility and Upright Posture Are Associated with Different Aspects of Cognition in Older Adults.

Objectives: Aging is associated with cognitive decline, including visuomotor and memory concerns, and with motor system changes, including gait slowing and stooped posture. We investigated the associations of visuomotor performance and episodic memory with motor system characteristics in healthy older adults. Methods: Neurologically healthy older adults (N = 160, aged 50-89) completed a battery of cognitive and motor tasks. Cognitive variables were grouped by principal components analysis (PCA) into two components: visuomotor performance and verbal episodic memory. Our primary predictor variables were two aspects of motor function: timed-up-and-go (TUG) speed and neck angle. Additional predictor variables included demographic factors (age, sex and education) and indicators of physical fitness (body mass index/BMI and grip strength). All seven predictor variables were entered stepwise into a multiple regression model for each cognitive component. Results: Poor visuomotor performance was best predicted by a combination of advanced age, high BMI and slow TUG, whereas poor verbal memory performance was best predicted by a combination of advanced age, male sex, low education and acute neck angle. Conclusions: Upright posture and mobility were associated with different cognitive processes, suggesting different underlying neural mechanisms. These results provide the first evidence for a link between postural alignment and cognitive functioning in healthy older adults. Possible causal relationships are discussed.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2016.

PURPOSE: Historical trends and factors likely to influence future pharmaceutical expenditures are discussed, and projections are made for drug spending in 2016 in nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors). METHODS: Drug expenditure data through calendar year 2015 were obtained from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database and analyzed. Other factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2016, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were also reviewed. Expenditure projections for 2016 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total U.S. prescription sales in the 2015 calendar year were $419.4 billion, which was 11.7% higher than sales in 2014. Prescription expenditures in clinics and nonfederal hospitals totaled $56.7 billion (a 15.9% increase) and $33.6 billion (a 10.7% increase), respectively, in 2015. In nonfederal hospitals, growth in spending was driven primarily by increased prices for existing drugs. The hepatitis C combination drug ledipasvir-sofosbuvir was the top drug overall in terms of 2015 expenditures ($14.3 billion); in both clinics and nonfederal hospitals, infliximab was the top drug. Individual drugs with the greatest increases in expenditures in 2015 were specialty agents and older generics; these agents are likely to continue to influence total spending in 2016. CONCLUSION: We project an 11-13% increase in total drug expenditures overall in 2016, with a 15-17% increase in clinic spending and a 10-12% increase in hospital spending. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine local drug utilization patterns in projecting their own organization's drug spending in 2016.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2015.

PURPOSE: An analysis of trends in U.S. pharmaceutical spending is presented, including projections for drug expenditures in nonfederal hospital and clinic settings in 2015. METHODS: Prescription drug expenditure data through September 2014 were obtained from the IMS Health National Sales Perspectives database and were analyzed descriptively. Other factors that may influence prescription spending in hospitals and clinics in 2015, including new drug approvals and patent expirations, were analyzed. Expenditure projections were based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: Total prescription sales for the 12 months ending September 30, 2014, were $360.7 billion, 12.2% higher than during the previous 12 months. With $6.6 billion in expenditures in the first 9 months of 2014, sofosbuvir topped the overall list of drugs based on sales, followed by aripiprazole and insulin glargine. Pharmaceutical spending by clinics and nonfederal hospitals rose by 13.3% and 4.0%, respectively. For the first 9 months of 2014, the top drugs based on expenditures were infliximab, pegfilgrastim, and epoetin alfa in clinics and infliximab, rituximab, and pegfilgrastim in hospitals. Specialty drugs continued to constitute an increasing portion of drug expenditures and will contribute to higher expenditures in 2015. CONCLUSION: Growth in U.S. prescription drug expenditures is expected to continue to increase in 2015. The projected increases in total drug expenditures are 7-9% across all settings, 12-14% in clinics, and 5-7% in hospitals. Health-system pharmacy leaders should carefully examine their own local drug utilization patterns to determine their own organization's anticipated spending in 2015.

Availability of treatment drives decisions of genetic health professionals about disclosure of incidental findings.

Contrasting opinions exist regarding the disclosure of incidental findings detected through clinical genomic testing. This study used a discrete choice experiment to investigate genetic health professionals' preferences for the disclosure of incidental findings in an Australian paediatric setting. Four attributes of conditions relating to incidental findings were investigated: availability of prevention and treatment, chance of symptoms ever developing, age of onset and severity. Questionnaires from 59 Australian genetic health professionals were analysed. Results show that when evaluating incidental findings for disclosure, these professionals value the availability of prevention and treatment for the condition above all other characteristics included in the study. The framework of this discrete choice experiment can be used to investigate the preferences of other stakeholders such as paediatricians and parents about disclosure of incidental findings. The results of this study may be considered when assessing which categories of incidental findings are most suitable for disclosure in clinical practice.

Generalized linear models with coarsened covariates: a practical Bayesian approach.

Coarsened covariates are a common and sometimes unavoidable phenomenon encountered in statistical modeling. Covariates are coarsened when their values or categories have been grouped. This may be done to protect privacy or to simplify data collection or analysis when researchers are not aware of their drawbacks. Analyses with coarsened covariates based on ad hoc methods can compromise the validity of inferences. One valid method for accounting for a coarsened covariate is to use a marginal likelihood derived by summing or integrating over the unknown realizations of the covariate. However, algorithms for estimation based on this approach can be tedious to program and can be computationally expensive. These are significant obstacles to their use in practice. To overcome these limitations, we show that when expressed as a Bayesian probability model, a generalized linear model with a coarsened covariate can be posed as a tractable missing data problem where the missing data are due to censoring. We also show that this model is amenable to widely available general-purpose software for simulation-based inference for Bayesian probability models, providing researchers a very practical approach for dealing with coarsened covariates.

Kindergarteners' entrée intake increases when served a larger entrée portion in school lunch: a quasi-experiment.

BACKGROUND: The influence of portion size on children's intake and self-regulation of food has gained attention; however, few studies have examined portion sizes in school lunch. This study investigated kindergarteners' intake when they were given different entrée portion sizes from the lunch menu. METHODS: Plate waste was used as a proxy to measure intake. A standardized lunch of chicken nuggets, rice, green beans, applesauce, and milk was served every Tuesday for 5 consecutive weeks at a Kinder Center. All menu items and the self-selection of 2, 3, or 4 nuggets were served the first week as a pilot. In the second and fourth weeks, trained servers preportioned kindergarteners' plates with 4 nuggets. In the third and fifth weeks, kindergarteners verbally self-selected 2, 3, or 4 chicken nuggets. A Mann-Whitney test was used to determine a significant difference in intake between the 2 days kindergarteners were allowed to select the portion size and the 2 days they were preportioned. RESULTS: A significant difference (p < .009) in intake was found between the self-selection of entrée portion size and the preportioned entrée regardless of sex or whether kindergarteners attended the am or pm session. No significant difference was found in milk, fruit, vegetable, or rice intake between choice and nonchoice lunches. In this study, kindergarteners ate more chicken nuggets when they were offered a larger portion size. CONCLUSIONS: Further investigation is needed on the impact of letting kindergarteners self-select portion sizes, and the potential negative outcomes of larger portion sizes on children's caloric consumption in elementary schools.