Encouragement from the right source: Evaluating the impact of the 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program in the Ohio Western Lake Erie Basin.

Harmful algal blooms are a considerable environmental issue predominantly caused by runoff of nutrients from agricultural lands. One high-profile set of practices promoted to combat this threat is the 4Rs of nutrient stewardship that concern using the right source of nutrients at the right rate and right time in the right place. While outreach for agricultural conservation is often undertaken by governmental or nonprofit entities, there is increasing interest in engaging agricultural retailers to leverage the trust that already exists between farmers and their agribusiness professionals. The 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program, implemented in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) in 2014, certifies crop advising companies and agronomy retailers or Nutrient Service Providers (NSPs) to promote best practices in nutrient management. This program has since grown and now exists in six US states and the province of Ontario and Prince Edward Island in Canada. Using a survey of farmers in the WLEB, we investigate the impact of working with certified NSPs over time on farmers' reported 4R-related behaviors. We find evidence that working with a certified NSP has a positive impact on 4R behaviors that is independent of other potential explanations for this change (e.g., farmer concern about nutrient loss, local regulatory efforts, and exposure to general 4R-related outreach). Overall, these results suggest that the 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program is having an independent, positive impact on farmer behavior, and engaging with agricultural retailers and agronomists can be effective at advancing adoption of environmentally impactful nutrient management practices.

Understanding farmers' conservation behavior over time: A longitudinal application of the transtheoretical model of behavior change.

Global waterbodies are experiencing increased risk of eutrophication and harmful algal blooms due to excess nutrients including phosphorus and nitrogen discharged from human activity on the landscape and as a result of climate change. Despite modeling that suggests the efficacy of best management practices in agricultural systems to be sufficient to address the problem, adoption by farmers remains far below the levels needed to achieve significant water quality improvements and new approaches to encourage and sustain adoption are urgently needed. In this work, we apply a modified transtheoretical model (TTM) of behavior change to a longitudinal dataset (N = 584) of farmers' adoption decisions and stated intentions to use cover crops, collected in the Maumee Basin of Lake Erie, USA in 2016 and 2018. The TTM posits that behavior changes over time and is influenced by different social-psychological processes at each stage of change. Our findings confirm past research into the importance of many of the factors investigated, while providing new insight into their role in specific stages of the change process with potential implications for the design of interventions for farmers in different stages. Several factors investigated (mean environmental concern, education, information from conservation groups and off-farm income) were uniquely important to a particular stage. Other factors (response efficacy at the field level, total farm size and risks of spring planting interference) were important at both an earlier and later stage, but less important in predicting middle stages of change. A third set of factors (self-efficacy, proportion rented, no-till adoption and uncertain long-term paybacks) were statistically important across each stage of the TTM model. In applying the TTM longitudinally, we found evidence that farmers in a more advanced stage of cover crop adoption, in the first wave of data collection (2016) were more likely to have adopted cover crops in the second wave (2018), a result not predicted by individual factors alone. We report findings for cover crops but see the potential for the transtheoretical model of behavior change to be applied to other best management practice adoption decisions and to diverse populations of farmers to generate similarly novel insight and utility for intervention design and targeting.

Farmer willingness to implement constructed wetlands in the Western Lake Erie Basin.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) remain a persistent issue that threatens both the physical and economic health of the Western Lake Erie basin (WLEB). Edge-of-field conservation practices are recommended to help manage agricultural runoff and reach phosphorus reduction targets in freshwater systems like the Great Lakes (in the USA). Constructed wetlands (CWs) are a specific edge-of-field practice that could prove critical to these efforts. While we know less about why wetlands are installed or implemented than many other private lands conservation practices, prior research does indicate that offsetting the costs of land taken out of production, or targeting land that is not suitable for production will be critical. Our research builds on these findings by assessing how the perceived productivity of the land moderates the relationship between other potential motivating factors and willingness to install wetlands. We also assess how these critical motivations may vary by the conservation-mindedness of the farmer. Our results indicate that the decision to install a constructed wetland is not entirely dependent on the productivity of the land. Associated beneficial functions (e.g., aesthetics, hunting opportunities) positively influence willingness, even on productive land for those farmers who value conservation. We suggest that program providers emphasize the diverse benefits of constructed wetlands, and target farmers who exhibit stronger conservation identities as they may be more likely to consider wetlands regardless of the productivity of their land.

Private land conservation decision-making: An integrative social science model.

Owners and managers of private lands make decisions that have implications well beyond the boundaries of their land, influencing species conservation, water quality, wildfire risk, and other environmental outcomes with important societal and ecological consequences. Understanding how these decisions are made is key for informing interventions to support better outcomes. However, explanations of the drivers of decision making are often siloed in social science disciplines that differ in focus, theory, methodology, and terminology, hindering holistic understanding. To address these challenges, we propose a conceptual model of private land conservation decision-making that integrates theoretical perspectives from three dominant disciplines: economics, sociology, and psychology. The model highlights how heterogeneity in behavior across decision-makers is driven by interactions between the decision context, attributes of potential conservation behaviors, and attributes of the decision-maker. These differences in both individual attributes and context shape decision-makers' constraints and the potential and perceived consequences of a behavior. The model also captures how perceived consequences are evaluated and weighted through a decision-making process that may range from systematic to heuristic, ultimately resulting in selection of a behavior. Outcomes of private land behaviors across the landscape feed back to alter the socio-environmental conditions that shape future decisions. The conceptual model is designed to facilitate better communication, collaboration, and integration across disciplines and points to methodological innovations that can expand understanding of private land decision-making. The model also can be used to illuminate how behavior change interventions (e.g., policies, regulations, technical assistance) could be designed to target different drivers to encourage environmentally and socially beneficial behaviors on private lands.

Assessing the Accuracy of Farmers' Nutrient Loss Risk Perceptions.

Use of nutrient management practices to reduce nutrient loss from agriculture and its associated water quality consequences, including hypoxia and eutrophication, is widely encouraged. However, little is known about which factors influence farmers' risk perceptions associated with nutrient loss, and thus possibly influence their decisions to adopt such practices. To determine which factors were associated with relative "accuracy" of nutrient loss-associated risk perceptions, specific farm field management information was used as inputs to a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model of the study watershed to produce water quality outputs for each modeled farm field. This information was paired with farmers' risk perceptions associated with nutrient loss on their farm to assess relative "accuracy" of each farmer's perceptions compared to the rest of the farmers in the study. We then investigated characteristics of the farm and farmer that are associated with comparative "overprediction" and "underprediction" of risk, and found that characteristics of the individual (conservation identity, prior conservation practice adoption, efficacy beliefs, and perceived seriousness of the consequences of nutrient loss) are more important in determining whether farmers are likely to "overpredict" or "underpredict" risk than is the objective (modeled) vulnerability of their land to nutrient loss.

A Yardstick for Danger: Developing a Flexible and Sensitive Measure of Risk Perception.

While individual perceptions of risk are central to many behavioral theories of hazard response and are of considerable interest in both conceptual and applied work surrounding risk, hazards, and decision making, there is currently no consensus on how perceived risk should best be measured. Several recent efforts have laid the groundwork for a conceptual model outlining four key factors that make up risk perception: exposure, susceptibility, severity, and affective response. In this article, we use an extensive scale-development process to develop empirically supported 3-4 item subscales to measure each of those four dimensions. Using cognitive interviewing techniques and several quantitative psychometric methods including exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis and item-response theory analyses, we reduce a large set of potential items to the highest-quality items to assess each subscale. These subscales can be used to make comparisons across perceived risk in different hazard contexts and populations.

Developing a Broadly Applicable Measure of Risk Perception.

Decades of research identify risk perception as a largely intuitive and affective construct, in contrast to the more deliberative assessments of probability and consequences that form the foundation of risk assessment. However, a review of the literature reveals that many of the risk perception measures employed in survey research with human subjects are either generic in nature, not capturing any particular affective, probabilistic, or consequential dimension of risk; or focused solely on judgments of probability. The goal of this research was to assess a multidimensional measure of risk perception across multiple hazards to identify a measure that will be broadly useful for assessing perceived risk moving forward. Our results support the idea of risk perception being multidimensional, but largely a function of individual affective reactions to the hazard. We also find that our measure of risk perception holds across multiple types of hazards, ranging from those that are behavioral in nature (e.g., health and safety behaviors), to those that are technological (e.g., pollution), or natural (e.g., extreme weather). We suggest that a general, unidimensional measure of risk may accurately capture one's perception of the severity of the consequences, and the discrete emotions that are felt in response to those potential consequences. However, such a measure is not likely to capture the perceived probability of experiencing the outcomes, nor will it be as useful at understanding one's motivation to take mitigation action.

Moving beyond panaceas in fisheries governance.

In fisheries management-as in environmental governance more generally-regulatory arrangements that are thought to be helpful in some contexts frequently become panaceas or, in other words, simple formulaic policy prescriptions believed to solve a given problem in a wide range of contexts, regardless of their actual consequences. When this happens, management is likely to fail, and negative side effects are common. We focus on the case of individual transferable quotas to explore the panacea mindset, a set of factors that promote the spread and persistence of panaceas. These include conceptual narratives that make easy answers like panaceas seem plausible, power disconnects that create vested interests in panaceas, and heuristics and biases that prevent people from accurately assessing panaceas. Analysts have suggested many approaches to avoiding panaceas, but most fail to conquer the underlying panacea mindset. Here, we suggest the codevelopment of an institutional diagnostics toolkit to distill the vast amount of information on fisheries governance into an easily accessible, open, on-line database of checklists, case studies, and related resources. Toolkits like this could be used in many governance settings to challenge users' understandings of a policy's impacts and help them develop solutions better tailored to their particular context. They would not replace the more comprehensive approaches found in the literature but would rather be an intermediate step away from the problem of panaceas.

Using models of farmer behavior to inform eutrophication policy in the Great Lakes.

To address the management of eutrophication in aquatic systems, the behavioral mechanisms that drive change at the individual level must be considered when designing policy interventions. This analysis identifies the beliefs that are critical to behavioral change, and explores the likelihood that farmers will adopt two management practices believed to be critical to reducing nutrient loading to recommended levels in Lake Erie. We find that there is potential for farmers to adopt key infield practices needed to reduce nutrient inputs. And further, that increased adoption of such practices is possible by increasing the perceived efficacy of the majority of farmers who are motivated to take action. Integrating these findings with physical models of nutrient movement indicates that adoption of these practices in combination with edge of field practices can attain phosphorus reduction targets for the lake. Future research should focus on measuring the effectiveness of education and outreach programs aimed at engaging farmers and promoting adoption of recommended practices. Such programs may only be effective if they are successfully building farmer confidence in their ability to implement the practices (i.e., perceived self efficacy) and increasing farmer's belief in the effectiveness of the practices at reducing nutrient loss and improving local water quality (i.e., perceived response efficacy).

Evaluating Public and Regulatory Acceptance for Urban Soil Management Approaches.

Regulators ( = 14) and the public ( = 30) were surveyed to compare how they perceived contaminated soil management strategies, including bioavailability assessments, using a mental models approach. Both groups proposed similar soil contamination definitions and agreed laboratory tests were needed to identify contaminants. When responding to open-ended questions about management options, regulators emphasized the risk assessment process, whereas the public noted specific treatment options. The majority of the public (68%) and regulators (86%) were concerned about particular contaminants. The public emphasized general contaminant categories, such as petroleum products and chemicals. Regulators listed specific compounds, including arsenic and dioxin. Both groups mentioned lead. Public and regulators had similar levels of agreement for soil removal ( = 0.96) and allowing soils with low bioavailability to remain in place ( = 0.66). The public were most opposed (43% disagree or strongly disagree) to using soil capping. Both groups were willing to consider using bioavailability assessments for contaminated soils. All regulators had heard of bioavailability, whereas 21 of the 24 (88%) public had not heard of this concept. Across all soil management options, the public tended to have higher rates of strongly disagree/disagree and neutral responses compared with regulators ( = 0.01). The neutral responses may indicate public ambivalence or insufficient information to respond about treatment options. Communication and public education efforts should emphasize the analytical process used to justify site-specific treatments. Additional surveys should evaluate public and regulator definitions of successful soil management and contaminant remediation in specific situations (i.e., case studies with specific contaminants and receptors of interest).

A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems.

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers' actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.

Efficacy of recent state implementation plans for 8-hour ozone.

The development of state implementation plans (SIPs) for attainment of criteria pollutant standards is an integral component of air quality management in the United States. However, the content and efficacy of SIPs have rarely been examined systematically. Here, 20 SIPs developed in response to the 1997 8-hr ozone standard are reviewed as case studies of attainment efforts at the state level. Comparison of observed and model predicted ozone concentrations shows the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommended modeled attainment test to be a somewhat conservative predictor of attainment. Among 12 SIPs for regions that sought attainment by 2009, the test correctly predicted attainment and nonattainment in four and five regions, respectively; in the other three regions, attainment was observed despite predictions of nonattainment. However weight-of-evidence determinations and deviations from the recommended modeled attainment test methodology led five of these SIPs to predict attainment that was not in fact observed by 2009; three of those regions achieved attainment in 2010. Ozone and NO2 concentrations declined across much of the United States during the period covered by the SIPs, with rates of improvement strongly correlated with the initial pollution levels and hence greatest in nonattainment regions. However at monitors with mid-range levels of ozone initially, rates of reduction were largely independent of the initial attainment status of the region. This is consistent with thefact that apart from California, the majority of ozone precursor reductions documented by SIPs resulted from federal measures rather than from state or local controls specific to the nonattainment regions.

Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers.

Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206 individuals in the USDA Forest Service with authority to choose how to manage a wildfire event (i.e., line officers and incident command personnel). The results indicate that the subjects exhibited loss aversion, choosing the safe option more often when the consequences of the choice were framed as potential gains, but this tendency was less pronounced among those with risk seeking attitudes. The subjects also exhibited discounting, choosing to minimize short-term over long-term risk due to a belief that future risk could be controlled, but this tendency was less pronounced among those with more experience. Finally, the subjects, in particular those with more experience, demonstrated a status quo bias, choosing suppression more often when their reported status quo was suppression. The results of this study point to a need to carefully construct the decision process to ensure that the uncertainty and conflicting objectives inherent in wildfire management do not result in the overuse of common heuristics. Individual attitudes toward risk or an agency culture of risk aversion may counterbalance such heuristics, whereas increased experience may lead to overconfident intuitive judgments and a failure to incorporate new and relevant information into the decision.

Balancing emotion and cognition: a case for decision aiding in conservation efforts.

Despite advances in the quality of participatory decision making for conservation, many current efforts still suffer from an inability to bridge the gap between science and policy. Judgment and decision-making research suggests this gap may result from a person's reliance on affect-based shortcuts in complex decision contexts. I examined the results from 3 experiments that demonstrate how affect (i.e., the instantaneous reaction one has to a stimulus) influences individual judgments in these contexts and identified techniques from the decision-aiding literature that help encourage a balance between affect-based emotion and cognition in complex decision processes. In the first study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on their stated conservation objectives and made decisions that reflected their initial affective impressions. Value-focused approaches may help individuals incorporate all the decision-relevant objectives by making the technical and value-based objectives more salient. In the second study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on statistical risk and again made affect-based decisions. Trade-off techniques may help individuals incorporate relevant technical data, even when it conflicts with their initial affective impressions or other value-based objectives. In the third study, subjects displayed a lack of trust in decision-making authorities when the decision involved a negatively affect-rich outcome (i.e., a loss). Identifying shared salient values and increasing procedural fairness may help build social trust in both decision-making authorities and the decision process.

My loss is your loss ... Sometimes: loss aversion and the effect of motivational biases.

Findings from previous studies of individual decision-making behavior predict that losses will loom larger than gains. It is less clear, however, if this loss aversion applies to the way in which individuals attribute value to the gains and losses of others, or if it is robust across a broad spectrum of policy and management decision contexts. Consistent with previous work, the results from a series of experiments reported here revealed that subjects exhibited loss aversion when evaluating their own financial gains and losses. The presence of loss aversion was also confirmed for the way in which individuals attribute value to the financial gains and losses of others. However, similar evaluations within social and environmental contexts did not exhibit loss aversion. In addition, research subjects expected that individuals who were unknown to them would significantly undervalue the subjects' own losses across all contexts. The implications of these findings for risk-based policy and management are many. Specifically, they warrant caution when relying upon loss aversion to explain or predict the reaction of affected individuals to risk-based decisions that involve moral or protected values. The findings also suggest that motivational biases may lead decisionmakers to assume that their attitudes and beliefs are common among those affected by a decision, while those affected may expect unfamiliar others to be unable to identify and act in accordance with shared values.

Evaluating the quality of structured environmental management decisions.

Structured decision making (SDM) approaches have been advocated as a means of improving the quality of environmental and related risk management decisions based largely on the self-reported behavior of decision makers. The goal of the research presented here was to test this basis for decision quality by comparing the self-reported assessments of individual decision makers with their actual choice behavior across a set of three related environmental contexts. It was hypothesized that a modified structured decision approach would lead participants to make better informed decisions which accurately reflected their objectives, not based solely on self-reports, but also on internally consistent decision making behavior. Results from this study only partially support this hypothesis. While individuals' self-reports suggest that the structured approach outperformed results from an unstructured control condition, there was a lack of agreement between these self-reported evaluations and actual choice behavior. Beyond the obvious policy implications of decisions that are inconsistent with stated objectives, these findings point to the need for improved metrics when evaluating the quality of environmental decision processes.