Preoperative and intraoperative predictors of postoperative morbidity, poor graft function, and early rejection in 190 patients undergoing liver transplantation.

HYPOTHESIS: Preoperative and intraoperative variables predict in part adverse outcome after liver transplantation. DESIGN: Prospective, blinded, cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary care hospital. SUBJECTS: A total of 190 adult patients undergoing primary liver transplantation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Adverse outcome was prospectively defined as either in-hospital death or prolonged postoperative hospitalization (>14 days) associated with morbidity. Potential preoperative and intraoperative risk factors were collected. Associations were tested by univariate analysis followed by multivariate analysis in which preoperative factors were entered before intraoperative factors. RESULTS: Adverse outcome occurred in 44.7% of patients. Incidences of other complications were as follows: in-hospital mortality (8.4%), primary graft nonfunction (4.2%), poor early graft function (1.1%), and early rejection (31.2%). Univariate predictors of adverse outcome were United Network for Organ Sharing status (P =.003), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (P =.02), POSSUM physiological score (P =.002), recipient age (P =.01), preoperative serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (P =.03), preoperative serum creatinine level (P =.002), preoperative serum total IgG level (P =.004), duration in hospital preoperatively (P =.03), operative duration (P<.001), allogeneic erythrocyte transfusions (P<.001), total intraoperative fluids (P =.002), and use of inotropic agents (P =.01). In the final multivariate model, predictors of adverse outcome were United Network for Organ Sharing status (P =.03), recipient age (P =.002), and total intraoperative fluids (P =.04). Most patients who died or had a prolonged hospitalization exhibited dysfunction of more than 1 organ system, including pulmonary, renal, and infectious complications. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse outcome occurs frequently after liver transplantation, usually involves multiple organ systems, and is predicted in part by several preoperative and intraoperative factors.

Decreased endotoxin immunity is associated with greater mortality and/or prolonged hospitalization after surgery.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing noncardiac surgery often develop postoperative morbidity, potentially attributable to endotoxemia and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Endogenous antibodies to endotoxin may confer protection from endotoxin-mediated toxicity. The authors sought to determine the association of preoperative antiendotoxin immunity and death or prolonged hospitalization in a broad population of general surgical patients undergoing major surgery. METHODS: To test the hypothesis that low preoperative serum antiendotoxin core antibody (EndoCAb) concentration is an independent predictor of adverse outcome after general surgery, 1,056 patients undergoing routine noncardiac surgery were enrolled into a prospective, blinded, cohort study. Immunoglobulin M EndoCAb, immunoglobulin G EndoCAb, total inmunoglobulin M, and immunoglobulin G concentrations were measured in serum obtained preoperatively. A physiologic risk score using the established POSSUM criteria was assigned preoperatively to each patient. The primary predefined composite end point (postoperative complication) was either in-hospital death or postoperative length of stay greater than 10 days. Multivariate logistic regression was used to test the study hypothesis. RESULTS: Overall, postoperative complication occurred in 234 of the 1,056 patients (22.1%). Lower immunoglobulin M EndoCAb concentration (P = 0.006) predicted increased risk of postoperative complication independent of POSSUM physiologic risk score (P < 0.001). In contrast, total immunoglobulin M and total immunoglobulin G concentrations did not predict adverse outcome. Complications involved multiple organ systems and were generally unrelated to the type or site of surgery, consistent with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse outcome after routine noncardiac surgery is common and is predicted in part by low concentrations of EndoCAb. The authors' findings suggest that endotoxemia may be a cause of postoperative morbidity after routine noncardiac surgery.