Association between work sick-leave absenteeism and SARS-CoV-2 notifications in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Alternative data sources for surveillance have gained importance in maintaining coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situational awareness as nationwide testing has drastically decreased. Therefore, we explored whether rates of sick-leave from work are associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) notification trends and at which lag, to indicate the usefulness of sick-leave data for COVID-19 surveillance. METHODS: We explored trends during the COVID-19 epidemic of weekly sick-leave rates and SARS-CoV-2 notification rates from 1 June 2020 to 10 April 2022. Separate time series were inspected visually. Then, Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated at different lag and lead times of zero to four weeks between sick-leave and SARS-CoV-2 notification rates. We distinguished between four SARS-CoV-2 variant periods, two labour sectors and overall, and all-cause sick-leave versus COVID-19-specific sick-leave. RESULTS: The correlation coefficients between weekly all-cause sick-leave and SARS-CoV-2 notification rate at optimal lags were between 0.58 and 0.93, varying by the variant period and sector (overall: 0.83, lag -1; 95% CI [0.76, 0.88]). COVID-19-specific sick-leave correlations were higher than all-cause sick-leave correlations. Correlations were slightly lower in healthcare and education than overall. The highest correlations were mostly at lag -2 and -1 for all-cause sick-leave, meaning that sick-leave preceded SARS-CoV-2 notifications. Correlations were highest mostly at lag zero for COVID-19-specific sick-leave (coinciding with SARS-CoV-2 notifications). CONCLUSION: All-cause sick-leave might offer an earlier indication and evolution of trends in SARS-CoV-2 rates, especially when testing is less available. Sick-leave data may complement COVID-19 and other infectious disease surveillance systems as a syndromic data source.

Ellipro scores of donor epitope specific HLA antibodies are not associated with kidney graft survival.

In kidney transplantation, donor HLA antibodies are a risk factor for graft loss. Accessibility of donor eplets for HLA antibodies is predicted by the ElliPro score. The clinical usefulness of those scores in relation to transplant outcome is unknown. In a large Dutch kidney transplant cohort, Ellipro scores of pretransplant donor antibodies that can be assigned to known eplets (donor epitope specific HLA antibodies [DESAs]) were compared between early graft failure and long surviving deceased donor transplants. We did not observe a significant Ellipro score difference between the two cohorts, nor significant differences in graft survival between transplants with DESAs having high versus low total Ellipro scores. We conclude that Ellipro scores cannot be used to identify DESAs associated with early versus late kidney graft loss in deceased donor transplants.

Determination of the clinical relevance of donor epitope-specific HLA-antibodies in kidney transplantation.

In kidney transplantation, survival rates are still partly impaired due to the deleterious effects of donor specific HLA antibodies (DSA). However, not all luminex-defined DSA appear to be clinically relevant. Further analysis of DSA recognizing polymorphic amino acid configurations, called eplets or functional epitopes, might improve the discrimination between clinically relevant vs. irrelevant HLA antibodies. To evaluate which donor epitope-specific HLA antibodies (DESAs) are clinically important in kidney graft survival, relevant and irrelevant DESAs were discerned in a Dutch cohort of 4690 patients using Kaplan-Meier analysis and tested in a cox proportional hazard (CPH) model including nonimmunological variables. Pre-transplant DESAs were detected in 439 patients (9.4%). The presence of certain clinically relevant DESAs was significantly associated with increased risk on graft loss in deceased donor transplantations (p < 0.0001). The antibodies recognized six epitopes of HLA Class I, 3 of HLA-DR, and 1 of HLA-DQ, and most antibodies were directed to HLA-B (47%). Fifty-three patients (69.7%) had DESA against one donor epitope (range 1-5). Long-term graft survival rate in patients with clinically relevant DESA was 32%, rendering DESA a superior parameter to classical DSA (60%). In the CPH model, the hazard ratio (95% CI) of clinically relevant DESAs was 2.45 (1.84-3.25) in deceased donation, and 2.22 (1.25-3.95) in living donation. In conclusion, the developed model shows the deleterious effect of clinically relevant DESAs on graft outcome which outperformed traditional DSA-based risk analysis on antigen level.

Antibodies against ARHGDIB are associated with long-term kidney graft loss.

The clinical significance of non-HLA antibodies on renal allograft survival is a matter of debate, due to differences in reported results and lack of large-scale studies incorporating analysis of multiple non-HLA antibodies simultaneously. We developed a multiplex non-HLA antibody assay against 14 proteins highly expressed in the kidney. In this study, the presence of pretransplant non-HLA antibodies was correlated to renal allograft survival in a nationwide cohort of 4770 recipients transplanted between 1995 and 2006. Autoantibodies against Rho GDP-dissociation inhibitor 2 (ARHGDIB) were significantly associated with graft loss in recipients transplanted with a deceased-donor kidney (N = 3276) but not in recipients of a living-donor kidney (N = 1496). At 10 years after deceased-donor transplantation, recipients with anti-ARHGDIB antibodies (94/3276 = 2.9%) had a 13% lower death-censored covariate-adjusted graft survival compared to the anti-ARHGDIB-negative (3182/3276 = 97.1%) population (hazard ratio 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-2.53; P = .0003). These antibodies occur independently from donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies (DSA) or other non-HLA antibodies investigated. No significant relations with graft loss were found for the other 13 non-HLA antibodies. We suggest that pretransplant risk assessment can be improved by measuring anti-ARHGDIB antibodies in all patients awaiting deceased-donor transplantation.

Allocation to highly sensitized patients based on acceptable mismatches results in low rejection rates comparable to nonsensitized patients.

Whereas regular allocation avoids unacceptable mismatches on the donor organ, allocation to highly sensitized patients within the Eurotransplant Acceptable Mismatch (AM) program is based on the patient's HLA phenotype plus acceptable antigens. These are HLA antigens to which the patient never made antibodies, as determined by extensive laboratory testing. AM patients have superior long-term graft survival compared with highly sensitized patients in regular allocation. Here, we questioned whether the AM program also results in lower rejection rates. From the PROCARE cohort, consisting of all Dutch kidney transplants in 1995-2005, we selected deceased donor single transplants with a minimum of 1 HLA mismatch and determined the cumulative 6-month rejection incidence for patients in AM or regular allocation. Additionally, we determined the effect of minimal matching criteria of 1 HLA-B plus 1 HLA-DR, or 2 HLA-DR antigens on rejection incidence. AM patients showed significantly lower rejection rates than highly immunized patients in regular allocation, comparable to nonsensitized patients, independent of other risk factors for rejection. In contrast to highly sensitized patients in regular allocation, minimal matching criteria did not affect rejection rates in AM patients. Allocation based on acceptable antigens leads to relatively low-risk transplants for highly sensitized patients with rejection rates similar to those of nonimmunized individuals.

Toward a Sensible Single-antigen Bead Cutoff Based on Kidney Graft Survival.

BACKGROUND: There is no consensus in the literature on the interpretation of single-antigen bead positive for a specific HLA antibody. METHODS: To inform the debate, we studied the relationship between various single-antigen bead positivity algorithms and the impact of resulting donor-specific HLA antibody (DSA) positivity on long-term kidney graft survival in 3237 deceased-donor transplants. RESULTS: First, we showed that the interassay variability can be greatly reduced when working with signal-to-background ratios instead of absolute median fluorescence intensities (MFIs). Next, we determined pretransplant DSA using various MFI cutoffs, signal-to-background ratios, and combinations thereof. The impact of the various cutoffs was studied by comparing the graft survival between the DSA-positive and DSA-negative groups. We did not observe a strong impact of various cutoff levels on 10-year graft survival. A stronger relationship between the cutoff level and 1-year graft survival for DSA-positive transplants was found when using signal-to-background ratios, most pronounced for the bead of the same HLA locus with lowest MFI taken as background. CONCLUSIONS: With respect to pretransplant risk stratification, we propose a signal-to-background ratio-6 (using the bead of the same HLA-locus with lowest MFI as background) cutoff of 15 combined with an MFI cutoff of 500, resulting in 8% and 21% lower 1- and 10-year graft survivals, respectively, for 8% DSA-positive transplants.

A paired kidney analysis on the impact of pre-transplant anti-HLA antibodies on graft survival.

BACKGROUND: Pre-transplant donor-specific anti-human leucocyte antigen (HLA) antibodies (DSAs) are associated with impaired kidney graft survival while the clinical relevance of non-donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies (nDSAs) is more controversial. The aim of the present paired kidney graft study was to compare the clinical relevance of DSAs and nDSAs. METHODS: To eliminate donor and era-dependent factors, a post hoc paired kidney graft analysis was performed as part of a Dutch multicentre study evaluating all transplantations between 1995 and 2005 with available pre-transplant serum samples. Anti-HLA antibodies were detected with a Luminex single-antigen bead assay. RESULTS: Among 3237 deceased donor transplantations, we identified 115 recipient pairs receiving a kidney from the same donor with one recipient being DSA positive and the other without anti-HLA antibodies. Patients with pre-transplant DSAs had a significantly lower 10-year death-censored graft survival (55% versus 82%, P=0.0001). We identified 192 pairs with one recipient as nDSA positive (against Class I and/or II) and the other without anti-HLA antibodies. For the patients with nDSAs against either Class I or II, graft survival did not significantly differ compared with patients without anti-HLA antibodies (74% versus 77%, P = 0.79). Only in patients with both nDSAs Class I and II was there a trend towards a lower graft survival (58%, P = 0.06). Lastly, in a small group of 42 recipient pairs, 10-year graft survival in recipients with DSAs was 49% compared with 68% in recipients with nDSAs (P=0.11). CONCLUSION: This paired kidney analysis confirms that the presence of pre-transplant DSAs in deceased donor transplantations is a risk marker for graft loss, whereas nDSAs in general are not associated with a lower graft survival. Subgroup analysis indicated that only in broadly sensitized patients with nDSAs against Class I and II, nDSAs may be a risk marker for graft loss in the long term.

Effect of initial immunosuppression on long-term kidney transplant outcome in immunological low-risk patients.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have evaluated the effect of different immunosuppressive strategies on long-term kidney transplant outcomes. Moreover, as they were usually based on historical data, it was not possible to account for the presence of pretransplant donor-specific human-leukocyte antigen antibodies (DSA), a currently recognized risk marker for impaired graft survival. The aim of this study was to evaluate to what extent frequently used initial immunosuppressive therapies increase graft survival in immunological low-risk patients. METHODS: We performed an analysis on the PROCARE cohort, a Dutch multicentre study including all transplantations performed in the Netherlands between 1995 and 2005 with available pretransplant serum (n = 4724). All sera were assessed for the presence of DSA by a luminex single-antigen bead assay. Patients with a previous kidney transplantation, pretransplant DSA or receiving induction therapy were excluded from the analysis. RESULTS: Three regimes were used in over 200 patients: cyclosporine (CsA)/prednisolone (Pred) (n = 542), CsA/mycophenolate mofetil (MMF)/Pred (n = 857) and tacrolimus (TAC)/MMF/Pred (n = 811). Covariate-adjusted analysis revealed no significant differences in 10-year death-censored graft survival between patients on TAC/MMF/Pred therapy (79%) compared with patients on CsA/MMF/Pred (82%, P = 0.88) or CsA/Pred (79%, P = 0.21). However, 1-year rejection-free survival censored for death and failure unrelated to rejection was significantly higher for TAC/MMF/Pred (81%) when compared with CsA/MMF/Pred (67%, P < 0.0001) and CsA/Pred (64%, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that in immunological low-risk patients excellent long-term kidney graft survival can be achieved irrespective of the type of initial immunosuppressive therapy (CsA or TAC; with or without MMF), despite differences in 1-year rejection-free survival.

Pretransplant C3d-Fixing Donor-Specific Anti-HLA Antibodies Are Not Associated with Increased Risk for Kidney Graft Failure.

Background Complement-fixing antibodies against donor HLA are considered a contraindication for kidney transplant. A modification of the IgG single-antigen bead (SAB) assay allows detection of anti-HLA antibodies that bind C3d. Because early humoral graft rejection is considered to be complement mediated, this SAB-based technique may provide a valuable tool in the pretransplant risk stratification of kidney transplant recipients.Methods Previously, we established that pretransplant donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies (DSAs) are associated with increased risk for long-term graft failure in complement-dependent cytotoxicity crossmatch-negative transplants. In this study, we further characterized the DSA-positive serum samples using the C3d SAB assay.Results Among 567 pretransplant DSA-positive serum samples, 97 (17%) contained at least one C3d-fixing DSA, whereas 470 (83%) had non-C3d-fixing DSA. At 10 years after transplant, patients with C3d-fixing antibodies had a death-censored, covariate-adjusted graft survival of 60%, whereas patients with non-C3d-fixing DSA had a graft survival of 64% (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.70 to 1.48 for C3d-fixing DSA compared with non-C3d-fixing DSA; P=0.93). Patients without DSA had a 10-year graft survival of 78%.Conclusions The C3d-fixing ability of pretransplant DSA is not associated with increased risk for graft failure.

Development and Validation of a Multiplex Non-HLA Antibody Assay for the Screening of Kidney Transplant Recipients.

The best treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease is kidney transplantation. Although graft survival rates have improved in the last decades, patients still may lose their grafts partly due to the detrimental effects of donor-specific antibodies (DSA) against human leukocyte antigens (HLA) and to a lesser extent also by antibodies directed against non-HLA antigens expressed on the donor endothelium. Assays to detect anti-HLA antibodies are already in use for many years and have been proven useful for transplant risk stratification. Currently, there is a need for assays to additionally detect multiple non-HLA antibodies simultaneously in order to study their clinical relevance in solid organ transplantation. This study describes the development, technical details and validation of a high-throughput multiplex assay for the detection of antibodies against 14 non-HLA antigens coupled directly to MagPlex microspheres or indirectly via a HaloTag. The non-HLA antigens have been selected based on a literature search in patients with kidney disease or following transplantation. Due to the flexibility of the assay, this approach can be used to include alternative antigens and can also be used for screening of other organ transplant recipients, such as heart and lung.

Measurement of antinuclear antibodies and their fine specificities: time for a change in strategy?

OBJECTIVES: The current strategy for antinuclear antibody (ANA) analysis involves screening for presence with a subsequent detailed analysis of their specificity. The aim of this study is to compare the clinical and financial efficacy of this strategy between different commercial tests in a large cohort of unselected patients. METHODS: In all consecutive 1030 patients associations were defined between results from different ANA test systems and the pre-test probability for connective tissue disease (CTDs). Test systems were used for screening (ANA-IIF vs. CTD screen) and definition of their fine specificity (profile 3 line blot vs. CTD single analytes). RESULTS: Positive ANA-IIF and/or CTD screen results were found in 304 sera. Further analysis for ANA-specificity by profile 3 line blot and CTD single analytes showed 86 discrepant results of which more than a third are clinically relevant, with the CTD single analyte assay performing better than the line blot in supporting or confirming the presence of a CTD. Autoantigens present in one test but absent in the other were of minor practical use. The ANA screening and identification strategies currently employed are not cost-effective as 83% of tests were performed in order to find specific autoantibodies in patients without the fitting clinical signs or symptoms. This causes many unexpected positive results and subsequent confusion with regard to interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: We advocate that some autoantigens should be excluded from the line blot and CTD assays and propose the use of a cost-effective and selective ANA specificity testing purely based on clinical guidance.