Inflation and health: a global scoping review.

High levels of economic inflation can adversely affect societies and individuals in many ways. Although numerous studies explore the health implications of macroeconomic factors, systematic investigation of the inflation-health nexus has been scarce. We conducted a comprehensive scoping review mapping the literature on inflation and health. From 8923 screened records, 69 empirical studies were analysed. These studies explored a wide range of health-related risk factors (eg, diet, substance use, stress, and violence) and outcomes (eg, life expectancy, mortality, suicidal behaviour, and mental health) linked to inflation, across diverse contexts and timeframes. The findings suggest a predominantly negative effect of inflation on health, with specific socioeconomic groups facing greater risks. Our Review uncovers notable gaps in the literature, particularly in geographical coverage, methodological approaches, and specific health outcomes. Among global socioeconomic and geopolitical shifts, understanding and mitigating the health effects of inflation is of contemporary relevance and merits thorough academic attention.

The common interests of health protection and the economy: evidence from scenario calculations of COVID-19 containment policies.

We develop a novel approach integrating epidemiological and economic models that allows data-based simulations during a pandemic. We examine the economically optimal opening strategy that can be reconciled with the containment of a pandemic. The empirical evidence is based on data from Germany during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Our empirical findings reject the view that there is necessarily a conflict between health protection and economic interests and suggest a non-linear U-shape relationship: it is in the interest of public health and the economy to balance non-pharmaceutical interventions in a manner that further reduces the incidence of infections. Our simulations suggest that a prudent strategy that leads to a reproduction number of around 0.75 is economically optimal. Too restrictive policies cause massive economic costs. Conversely, policies that are too loose lead to higher death tolls and higher economic costs in the long run. We suggest this finding as a guide for policy-makers in balancing interests of public health and the economy during a pandemic.

[The Crisis is Gradually Being Overcome]. / Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Die Krise wird allmählich überwunden.

The leading economic research institutes have lowered their GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.7 % to 2.4 %. Weakening industrial production, which is suffering from supply bottlenecks, is particularly responsible for this. The global economy is recovering from the disruptions of the coronavirus pandemic, but only slowly, as vaccination progress varies across regions. Consumer prices increased sharply in 2021.

Distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks in real-time: A novel method applied to the COVID-19 crisis in Germany.

The highly dynamic nature of the COVID-19 crisis poses an unprecedented challenge to policy makers around the world to take appropriate income-stabilizing countermeasures. To properly design such policy measures, it is important to quantify their effects in real-time. However, data on the relevant outcomes at the micro level is usually only available with considerable time lags. In this paper, we propose a novel method to assess the distributional consequences of macroeconomic shocks and policy responses in real-time and provide the first application to Germany in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, our approach combines different economic models estimated on firm- and household-level data: a VAR-model for output expectations, a structural labor demand model, and a tax-benefit microsimulation model. Our findings show that as of September 2020 the COVID-19 shock translates into a noticeable reduction in gross labor income across the entire income distribution. However, the tax benefit system and discretionary policy responses to the crisis act as important income stabilizers, since the effect on the distribution of disposable household incomes turns progressive: the bottom two deciles actually gain income, the middle deciles are hardly affected, and only the upper deciles lose income. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-021-09489-4.

[Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Pandemic Delays Upswing - Demography Slows Growth]. / Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Pandemie verzögert Aufschwung ­ Demografie bremst Wachstum.

In Germany, the first year of the coronavirus pandemic was characterised by extreme fluctuations in economic activity and a massively paralysed domestic economy. In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes assume that the current shutdown will continue and gradually be lifted from mid-May until the end of the third quarter. In the wake of the easing, private consumption in particular will recover strongly. Overall, GDP is expected to grow by 3.7 % this year and 3.9 % next year.

[Economy in Shock - Financial Policy is Holding Up]. / Wirtschaft unter Schock ­ Finanzpolitik hält dagegen.

According to the leading German economic research institutes, the German economy is experiencing a drastic slump as a result of the corona pandemic. In order to slow down the wave of infection, the state has severely restricted economic activity in Germany. As a result, GDP is expected to shrink by 4.2% this year. The recession is leaving clear traces on the labour market and the national budget. At its peak, the unemployment rate will soar to 5.9% and the number of short-time workers to 2.4 million. This year, the fiscal policy stabilisation measures will lead to a record deficit in the general government budget of 159 billion euro. After the shutdown, the economy will gradually recover. Accordingly, the increase in GDP next year will be strong at 5.8%. This forecast is associated with considerable downside risks, e.g. because the pandemic can be slowed faster or because the recovery of economic activity will be less successful than expected or there may be a new wave of infection.