The role of hydraulic conductivity in the Pine Island Glacier's subglacial water distribution.

Global climate warming leads to ever-increasing glacier mass loss. Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica is one of the largest contributors to global sea level rise (SLR). One of the biggest uncertainties in the assessment of glacier contribution to SLR at present are subglacial hydrology processes which are less well known than other ice dynamical processes. We use the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model which couples both distributed and channelized components to simulate the basal hydrology of Pine Island Glacier with basal sliding and meltwater production taken from a full-Stokes Elmer/Ice model fitting observed surface velocities. We find ≈100 km long Rothlisberger channels up to 26 m in diameter extending up glacier from the grounding line along the main trunk of Pine Island Glacier delivering 51 m3 s-1 of fresh water to the grounding line. Channelization occurs at high water pressure because of high basal melt rates (maximum of 1 m a-1) caused by high rates of shear heating in regions with fast ice flow (>1000 m a-1). We simulate a shallow "swamp" of 0.8 m water depth where flow transitions from a distributed system into the channels. We performed a set of 38 sensitivity experiments varying sheet and channel conductivity over 4 orders of magnitude. We find a threshold behavior in distributed sheet conductivity above which basal water pressures are unaffected by changing channel conductivities. Our findings suggest a strong need to better understand controls on basal water conductivity through the distributed system. This issue is critical to improve model-based predictive capability for the Pine Island Glacier and, more generally, the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

The potential for stabilizing Amundsen Sea glaciers via underwater curtains.

Rapid sea level rise due to an ice sheet collapse has the potential to be extremely damaging the coastal communities and infrastructure. Blocking deep warm water with thin flexible buoyant underwater curtains may reduce melting of buttressing ice shelves and thereby slow the rate of sea level rise. Here, we use new multibeam bathymetric datasets, combined with a cost-benefit model, to evaluate potential curtain routes in the Amundsen Sea. We organize potential curtain routes along a "difficulty ladder" representing an implementation pathway that might be followed as technological capabilities improve. The first curtain blocks a single narrow (5 km) submarine choke point that represents the primary warm water inflow route towards western Thwaites Glacier, the most vulnerable part of the most vulnerable glacier in Antarctica. Later curtains cross larger and deeper swaths of seabed, thus increasing their cost, while also protecting more of the ice sheet, increasing their benefit. In our simple cost-benefit analysis, all of the curtain routes achieve their peak value at target blocking depths between 500 and 550 m. The favorable cost-benefit ratios of these curtain routes, along with the trans-generational and societal equity of preserving the ice sheets near their present state, argue for increased research into buoyant curtains as a means of ice sheet preservation, including high-resolution fluid-structural and oceanographic modeling of deep water flow over and through the curtains, and coupled ice-ocean modeling of the dynamic response of the ice sheet.

Feasibility of ice sheet conservation using seabed anchored curtains.

Sea level rise is expected to be rapid and extremely damaging to coastal communities and infrastructure, with unavoidable losses and coastal protection costs in the tens of billions per year. Retreat of the Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers is likely already in an unstable regime as their oceanic fronts are ablated by deep intruding layers of relatively warm seawater. Warm water can be blocked from reaching the grounding line by thin flexible buoyant curtains anchored to the seabed. The consequent reduction in ice shelf melting could result in increased ice sheet buttressing as the shelf makes contact with seabed highs. Flexible curtains are less costly than solid artificial barriers, more robust against iceberg collisions, and easier to repair or remove in the event of unforeseen side effects. We illustrate the technical viability of this approach by considering curtain design concepts that should withstand oceanographic forces, and feasible methods of installation. Suitable materials are commonly available. Installation of a seabed curtain in temperate ocean waters would be entirely within the capabilities of existing offshore and deep ocean construction techniques. Installing in polar waters presents severe challenges from icebergs, harsh weather, and brief working seasons, which can however, be overcome with present-day technology. An 80 km long curtain installed in 600 m deep waters on alluvial sediments could help stabilize Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers over the next few centuries at much lower cost ($40-80 billion + $1-2 billion/yr maintenance) than the global coastline protection (∼$40 billion/yr) needed due to their collapse.

Widespread persistent thickening of the East Antarctic ice sheet by freezing from the base.

An International Polar Year aerogeophysical investigation of the high interior of East Antarctica reveals widespread freeze-on that drives substantial mass redistribution at the bottom of the ice sheet. Although the surface accumulation of snow remains the primary mechanism for ice sheet growth, beneath Dome A, 24% of the base by area is frozen-on ice. In some places, up to half of the ice thickness has been added from below. These ice packages result from the conductive cooling of water ponded near the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountain ridges and the supercooling of water forced up steep valley walls. Persistent freeze-on thickens the ice column, alters basal ice rheology and fabric, and upwarps the overlying ice sheet, including the oldest atmospheric climate archive, and drives flow behavior not captured in present models.