ABSTRACT
Tree regeneration shapes forest carbon dynamics by determining long-term forest composition and structure, which suggests that threats to natural regeneration may diminish the capacity of forests to replace live tree carbon transferred to the atmosphere or other pools through tree mortality. Yet, the potential implications of tree regeneration patterns for future carbon dynamics have been sparsely studied. We used forest inventory plots to investigate whether the composition of existing tree regeneration is consistent with aboveground carbon stock loss, replacement, or gain for forests across the northeastern and midwestern USA, leveraging a recently developed method to predict the likelihood of sapling recruitment from seedling abundance tallied within six seedling height classes. A comparison of carbon stock predictions from tree and seedling composition suggested that 29% of plots were poised to lose carbon based on seedling composition, 55% were poised for replacement of carbon stocks (<5 Mg ha-1 difference) and 16% were poised to gain carbon. Forests predicted to lose carbon tended to be on steeper slopes, at lower latitudes, and in rolling upland environments. Although plots predicted to gain and lose carbon had similar stand ages, carbon loss plots had greater current carbon stocks. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate the utility of considering tree regeneration through the lens of carbon replacement to develop effective management strategies to secure long-term carbon storage and resilience in the context of global change. Forests poised to lose C due to climate change and other stressors could be prioritized for regeneration strategies that enhance long-term carbon resilience and stewardship.
ABSTRACT
Although climate change is expected to drive tree species toward colder and wetter regions of their distribution, broadscale empirical evidence is lacking. One possibility is that past and present human activities in forests obscure or alter the effects of climate. Here, using data from more than two million monitored trees from 73 widely distributed species, we quantify changes in tree species density within their climatic niches across Northern Hemisphere forests. We observe a reduction in mean density across species, coupled with a tendency toward increasing tree size. However, the direction and magnitude of changes in density exhibit considerable variability between species, influenced by stand development that results from previous stand-level disturbances. Remarkably, when accounting for stand development, our findings show a significant change in density toward cold and wet climatic conditions for 43% of the species, compared to only 14% of species significantly changing their density toward warm and arid conditions in both early- and late-development stands. The observed changes in climate-driven density showed no clear association with species traits related to drought tolerance, recruitment and dispersal capacity, or resource use, nor with the temperature or aridity affiliation of the species, leaving the underlying mechanism uncertain. Forest conservation policies and associated management strategies might want to consider anticipated long-term species range shifts alongside the integration of contemporary within-distribution density changes.
Subject(s)
Climate Change , Forests , Trees , Trees/growth & development , Trees/physiology , Ecosystem , Climate , Droughts , TemperatureABSTRACT
Forest resource reporting techniques primarily use the two most recent measurements for understanding forest change. Multiple remeasurements now exist within the US national forest inventory (NFI), providing an opportunity to examine long-term forest demographics. We leverage two decades of remeasurements to quantify live-dead wood demographics which can better inform estimates of resource changes in forest ecosystems. Our overall objective is to identify opportunities and gaps in tracking 20 years of forest demographics within the US NFI using east Texas as a pilot study region given its diversity of tree species, prevalence of managed conditions, frequency of disturbances, and relatively rapid change driven by a warm, humid climate. We examine growth and mortality rates, identify transitions to downed dead wood/litter and removal via harvest, and describe implications of these processes focusing on key species groups (i.e., loblolly pine, post oak, and water oak) and size classes (i.e., saplings, small and large trees). Growth and mortality rates fluctuated differently over time by species and stem sizes in response to large-scale disturbances, namely the 2011 drought in Texas. Tree-fall rates were highest in saplings and snag-fall rates trended higher in smaller trees. For removal rates, different stem sizes generally followed similar patterns within each species group. Forest demographics from the field-based US NFI are informative for identifying diffuse lagged mortality, species- and size-specific effects, and management effects. Moreover, researchers continually seek to employ ancillary data and develop new statistical methods to enhance understanding of forest resource changes from field-based inventories.
Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Quercus , Pilot Projects , Texas , Environmental Monitoring , Forests , Trees , DemographyABSTRACT
The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers.
Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Forests , Soil , TreesABSTRACT
Relative frequency distribution of observed annual mortality expressed in aboveground (AG) carbon (C) (Mg CO2 e ha-1 year-1 ) summarized across supersections by forest type [Hardwood (HW) vs. Softwood (SW)] and site class (Low vs. High) based on approximately 130,000 remeasured USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plots across the US. Top panel summarizes conditions in plots that do and do not meet the California Air Resources Board standards based on total basal area, whereas bottom panel summarizes conditions in plots falling inside and outside of optimum relative density levels. The latter represents a biophysically-informed approach accounting for changes in tree (and carbon) packing over forest development.
Subject(s)
Carbon , Carbon/analysis , United StatesABSTRACT
Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.
Subject(s)
Climate Change , Trees/physiology , Ecosystem , Fertility/physiology , Geography , North America , UncertaintyABSTRACT
Downed woody material (DWM) is a unique part of the forest carbon cycle serving as a pool between living biomass and subsequent atmospheric emission or transference to other forest pools. Thus, DWM is an individually defined pool in national greenhouse gas inventories. The diversity of DWM carbon drivers (e.g., decay, tree mortality, or wildfire) and associated high spatial variability make this a difficult-to-predict component of forest ecosystems. Using the now fully established nationwide inventory of DWM across the United States (US), we developed models, which substantially improved predictions of stand-level DWM carbon density relative to the current national-reporting model ('previous' model, here). The previous model was developed from published DWM carbon densities prior to the NFI DWM inventory. Those predictions were tested using NFI DWM carbon densities resulting in a poor fit to the data (coefficient of determination, or R2 = 0.03). We present new random forest (RF) and stochastic gradient boosted (SGB) regression models to prediction DWM carbon density on all NFI plots and spatially on all forest land pixels. We evaluated various biotic and abiotic regression predictors, and the most important were standing dead trees, long-term annual precipitation, and long-term maximum summer temperature. A RF model scored best for expanding predictions to NFI plots (R2 = 0.31), while an SGB model was identified for DWM carbon predictions based on purely spatial data (i.e., NFI-plot-independent, with R2 = 0.23). The new RF model predicts conterminous US DWM carbon stocks to be 15% lower than the previous model and 2% higher than NFI data expanded according to inventory design-based inference. The new NFI data-driven models not only improve the predictions of DWM carbon density on all plots, they also provide flexibility in extending these predictions beyond the NFI to make spatially explicit and spatially continuous estimates of DWM carbon on all forest land in the US.
Subject(s)
Carbon , Ecosystem , Biomass , Carbon/analysis , Carbon Cycle , United States , Wood/chemistryABSTRACT
Unimodal response of tree species richness to increases in aboveground productivity is evident in grasslands but to a lesser extent in forests, where confounding factors (e.g., abiotic factors and management regimes) may alter the response and compromise the delivery of ecosystem services. We hypothesize that unimodal response of biomass accumulation through increased species richness leads to greater tree above ground carbon (AGC) stocks and thus climate regulation but not necessarily higher timber volume production for human consumption across portions of North American and European forests. We first evaluated the biodiversity-productivity pattern and assessed if the addition of potential confounding variables altered the response. Afterwards, we integrated direct and indirect effects of species richness and confounding factors in the modelling of aboveground carbon stock and timber volume. We confirm an increase in carbon stocks concomitant with an increase in tree species richness up to an optimum biomass value in both regions. Tree species richness had a marginal effect on both aboveground carbon stocks and timber volume with a trade-off in the eastern US. Biomass accumulation is lower in tree plantations than in natural forests, although volume increased with species richness. Naturally-regenerated forests needed as much as double the number of tree species than plantations to reach the same carbon stocks. Distinct ecosystem services (AGC and timber volume) showed unique pathways of achieving their maximum provisioning. As increasing forest resilience to global change requires a fundamental understanding of how tree species combine with changing climatic conditions to drive the provisioning of various ecosystem services, further examination of this study's findings across additional biogeographical regions may lead the way to unraveling such dynamics and empowering adaptive management.
Subject(s)
Carbon , Trees , Biodiversity , Biomass , Carbon/analysis , Ecosystem , Forests , Humans , SpainABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Recent increases in forest tree mortality should increase the abundance coarse woody detritus (CWD) and ultimately lead to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, the time course of carbon release from CWD is not well understood. We compiled CWD decomposition rate-constants (i.e., k) to examine how tree species, piece diameter, position (i.e., standing versus downed), canopy openness, and macroclimate influenced k. To illustrate their implications we modeled the effect of species and position on estimates of decomposition-related carbon flux. We examined a subset of currently used models to determine if their structure accounted for these factors. RESULTS: Globally k of downed CWD varied at least 244-fold with interspecies variation at individual sites up to 76-fold. While k generally decreased with increasing piece diameter, under open canopies the opposite occurred. Standing CWD sometimes exhibited little decomposition, but sometimes had k values up to 3 times faster than downed CWD. There was a clear response of k to mean annual temperature of ≈ 2.6 times per 10 â; however, there was considerable variation for a given mean annual temperature related to species, diameter, and position. A key feature of carbon release from CWD after disturbance was the "evolution" of the ecosystem-level k value as positions and species mixtures of the remaining CWD changed. Variations in decomposition caused by disturbance (e.g., changes in species, positions, sizes, and microclimate) had the potential to cause net carbon fluxes to the atmosphere to be highly nonlinear. While several models currently being used for carbon accounting and assessing land-use/climate change would potentially capture some of these post disturbance changes in fluxes and carbon balances, many would not. CONCLUSIONS: While much has been learned in the last 5 decades about CWD decomposition, to fully understand the time course of carbon release from increased mortality and other aspects of global change a new phase of global CWD research that is more systematic, experimental, and replicated needs to be initiated. If our findings are to be fully applied in modeling, an approach acknowledging how the rate of carbon release evolves over time should be implemented.
ABSTRACT
The quantity and condition of downed dead wood (DDW) is emerging as a major factor governing forest ecosystem processes such as carbon cycling, fire behavior, and tree regeneration. Despite this, systematic inventories of DDW are sparse if not absent across major forest biomes. The Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the United States (US) Forest Service has conducted an annual DDW inventory on all coterminous US forest land since 2002 (~1 plot per 38,850 ha), with a sample intensification occurring since 2012 (~1 plot per 19,425 ha). The data are organized according to DDW components and by sampling information which can all be linked to a multitude of auxiliary information in the national database. As the sampling of DDW is conducted using field efficient line-intersect approaches, several assumptions are adopted during population estimation that serve to identify critical knowledge gaps. The plot- and population-level DDW datasets and estimates provide the first insights into an understudied but critical ecosystem component of temperate forests of North America with global application.
Subject(s)
Forests , Wood/classification , Ecosystem , United StatesABSTRACT
Downed coarse woody debris, also known as coarse woody detritus or downed dead wood, is challenging to estimate for many reasons, including irregular shapes, multiple stages of decay, and the difficulty of identifying species. In addition, some properties are commonly not measured, such as wood density and carbon concentration. As a result, there have been few previous evaluations of uncertainty in estimates of downed coarse woody debris, which are necessary for analysis and interpretation of the data. To address this shortcoming, we quantified uncertainties in estimates of downed coarse woody debris volume and carbon storage using data collected from permanent forest inventory plots in the northeastern United States by the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the USDA Forest Service. Quality assurance data collected from blind remeasurement audits were used to quantify error in diameter measurements, hollowness of logs, species identification, and decay class determination. Uncertainty estimates for density, collapse ratio, and carbon concentration were taken from the literature. Estimates of individual sources of uncertainty were combined using Monte Carlo methods. Volume estimates were more reliable than carbon storage, with an average 95% confidence interval of 15.9 m3 /ha across the 79 plots evaluated, which was less than the mean of 31.2 m3 /ha. Estimates of carbon storage (and mass) were more uncertain, due to poorly constrained estimates of the density of wood. For carbon storage, the average 95% confidence interval was 11.1 Mg C/ha, which was larger than the mean of 4.6 Mg C/ha. Accounting for the collapse of dead wood as it decomposes would improve estimates of both volume and carbon storage. On the other hand, our analyses suggest that consideration of the hollowness of downed coarse woody debris pieces could be eliminated in this region, with little effect. This study demonstrates how uncertainty analysis can be used to quantify confidence in estimates and to help identify where best to allocate resources to improve monitoring designs.
Subject(s)
Carbon , Wood , New England , Trees , UncertaintyABSTRACT
When standing dead trees (snags) fall, they have major impacts on forest ecosystems. Snag fall can redistribute wildlife habitat and impact public safety, while governing important carbon (C) cycle consequences of tree mortality because ground contact accelerates C emissions during deadwood decay. Managing the consequences of altered snag dynamics in changing forests requires predicting when snags fall as wood decay erodes mechanical resistance to breaking forces. Previous studies have pointed to common predictors, such as stem size, degree of decay and species identity, but few have assessed the relative strength of underlying mechanisms driving snag fall across biomes. Here, we analyze nearly 100,000 repeated snag observations from boreal to subtropical forests across the eastern United States to show that wood decay controls snag fall in ways that could generate previously unrecognized forest-climate feedback. Warmer locations where wood decays quickly had much faster rates of snag fall. The effect of temperature on snag fall was so strong that in a simple forest C model, anticipated warming by mid-century reduced snag C by 22%. Furthermore, species-level differences in wood decay resistance (durability) accurately predicted the timing of snag fall. Differences in half-life for standing dead trees were similar to expected differences in the service lifetimes of wooden structures built from their timber. Strong effects of temperature and wood durability imply future forests where dying trees fall and decay faster than at present, reducing terrestrial C storage and snag-dependent wildlife habitat. These results can improve the representation of forest C cycling and assist forest managers by helping predict when a dead tree may fall.
Subject(s)
Forests , Trees , Wood , Forecasting , Hardness , Models, Biological , North America , Risk , Temperature , WindABSTRACT
Forest ecosystems are the largest terrestrial carbon sink on earth, with more than half of their net primary production moving to the soil via the decomposition of litter biomass. Therefore, changes in the litter carbon (C) pool have important implications for global carbon budgets and carbon emissions reduction targets and negotiations. Litter accounts for an estimated 5% of all forest ecosystem carbon stocks worldwide. Given the cost and time required to measure litter attributes, many of the signatory nations to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change report estimates of litter carbon stocks and stock changes using default values from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or country-specific models. In the United States, the country-specific model used to predict litter C stocks is sensitive to attributes on each plot in the national forest inventory, but these predictions are not associated with the litter samples collected over the last decade in the national forest inventory. Here we present, for the first time, estimates of litter carbon obtained using more than 5000 field measurements from the national forest inventory of the United States. The field-based estimates mark a 44% reduction (2081±77Tg) in litter carbon stocks nationally when compared to country-specific model predictions reported in previous United Framework Convention on Climate Change submissions. Our work suggests that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defaults and country-specific models used to estimate litter carbon in temperate forest ecosystems may grossly overestimate the contribution of this pool in national carbon budgets.
ABSTRACT
We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.
Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Droughts , Forests , Ecosystem , Trees , United StatesABSTRACT
Density dependence could maintain diversity in forests, but studies continue to disagree on its role. Part of the disagreement results from the fact that different studies have evaluated different responses (survival, recruitment, or growth) of different stages (seeds, seedlings, or adults) to different inputs (density of seedlings, density or distance to adults). Most studies are conducted on a single site and thus are difficult to generalize. Using USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data, we analyzed over a million seedling-to-sapling recruitment observations of 50 species from the eastern United States, controlling for the effects of climate. We focused on the per-seedling recruitment rate, because it is most likely to promote diversity and to be identified in observational or experimental data. To understand the prevalence of density dependence, we quantified the number of species with significant positive or negative effects. To understand the strength of density dependence, we determined the magnitude of effects among con- and heterospecifics, and how it changes with overall species abundance. We found that density dependence is pervasive among the 50 species, as the majority of them have significant effects and mostly negative. Density-dependence effects are stronger from conspecific than heterospecfic adult neighbors, consistent with the predictions of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. Contrary to recent reports, density-dependence effects are more negative for common than rare species, suggesting disproportionately stronger population regulation in common species. We conclude that density dependence is pervasive, and it is strongest from conspecific neighbors of common species. Our analysis provides direct evidence that density dependence reaulates opulation dynamics of tree species in eastern U.S. forests.
Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Trees/physiology , Forestry , Models, Biological , Models, Statistical , Population Density , Population Dynamics , United StatesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Refined estimation of carbon (C) stocks within forest ecosystems is a critical component of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of projected climate change through forest C management. Specifically, belowground C stocks are currently estimated in the United States' national greenhouse gas inventory (US NGHGI) using nationally consistent species- and diameter-specific equations applied to individual trees. Recent scientific evidence has pointed to the importance of climate as a driver of belowground C stocks. This study estimates belowground C using current methods applied in the US NGHGI and describes a new approach for merging both allometric models with climate-derived predictions of belowground C stocks. RESULTS: Climate-adjusted predictions were variable depending on the region and forest type of interest, but represented an increase of 368.87 Tg of belowground C across the US, or a 6.4 % increase when compared to currently-implemented NGHGI estimates. Random forests regressions indicated that aboveground biomass, stand age, and stand origin (i.e., planted versus artificial regeneration) were useful predictors of belowground C stocks. Decreases in belowground C stocks were modeled after projecting mean annual temperatures at various locations throughout the US up to year 2090. CONCLUSIONS: By combining allometric equations with trends in temperature, we conclude that climate variables can be used to adjust the US NGHGI estimates of belowground C stocks. Such strategies can be used to determine the effects of future global change scenarios within a C accounting framework.
ABSTRACT
We propose a novel multivariate method to analyse biodiversity data based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model. LDA, a probabilistic model, reduces assemblages to sets of distinct component communities. It produces easily interpretable results, can represent abrupt and gradual changes in composition, accommodates missing data and allows for coherent estimates of uncertainty. We illustrate our method using tree data for the eastern United States and from a tropical successional chronosequence. The model is able to detect pervasive declines in the oak community in Minnesota and Indiana, potentially due to fire suppression, increased growing season precipitation and herbivory. The chronosequence analysis is able to delineate clear successional trends in species composition, while also revealing that site-specific factors significantly impact these successional trajectories. The proposed method provides a means to decompose and track the dynamics of species assemblages along temporal and spatial gradients, including effects of global change and forest disturbances.
Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Models, Statistical , Computer Simulation , Costa Rica , Indiana , Minnesota , TreesABSTRACT
The perceived threat of climate change is often evaluated from species distribution models that are fitted to many species independently and then added together. This approach ignores the fact that species are jointly distributed and limit one another. Species respond to the same underlying climatic variables, and the abundance of any one species can be constrained by competition; a large increase in one is inevitably linked to declines of others. Omitting this basic relationship explains why responses modeled independently do not agree with the species richness or basal areas of actual forests. We introduce a joint species distribution modeling approach (JSDM), which is unique in three ways, and apply it to forests of eastern North America. First, it accommodates the joint distribution of species. Second, this joint distribution includes both abundance and presence-absence data. We solve the common issue of large numbers of zeros in abundance data by accommodating zeros in both stem counts and basal area data, i.e., a new approach to zero inflation. Finally, inverse prediction can be applied to the joint distribution of predictions to integrate the role of climate risks across all species and identify geographic areas where communities will change most (in terms of changes in abundance) with climate change. Application to forests in the eastern United States shows that climate can have greatest impact in the Northeast, due to temperature, and in the Upper Midwest, due to temperature and precipitation. Thus, these are the regions experiencing the fastest warming and are also identified as most responsive at this scale.
Subject(s)
Climate Change , Forests , Models, Biological , Temperature , United StatesABSTRACT
Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate-mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental-scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance-climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large-scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile-adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.
Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Climate Change , Trees/growth & development , Models, Theoretical , United StatesABSTRACT
Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass) and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor) with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario). Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making) using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation) among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1) robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2) projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change), and 3) appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States). Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery) suggests an operational forest C risk matrix remains elusive.