Variations and inequities in access to cardiac diagnostic services in Ontario Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Echocardiography is an essential diagnostic modality known to have wide regional utilization variations. This study's objectives were to quantify regional variations and to examine the extent to which they are explained by differences in population age, sex, cardiac disease prevalence (CDP), and social determinants of health (SDH) risk. METHODS: This is an observational study of all echocardiography exams performed in Ontario in 2019/20 (n = 695,622). We measured regional variations in echocardiography crude rates and progressively standardized rates for population age, sex, CDP, and SDH risk. RESULTS: After controlling for differences in population age, sex, and CDP, Ontario's highest rate regions had echocardiography rates 57% higher than its lowest rate regions. Forty eight percent of total variation was not explained by differences in age, sex, and CDP. CDP increased with SDH risk. Access to most cardiac diagnostics was negatively correlated with SDH risk, while cardiac catheterization rates were positively correlated with SDH risk. CONCLUSION: Variations analysis that adjusts for age and sex only without including clinical measures of need are likely to overestimate the unwarranted portion of total variation. Substantial variations persisted despite a mandatory provider accreditation policy aimed at curtailing them. The associations between variations and SDH risks imply a need to redress access and outcome inequities.

Derivation and validation of pragmatic clinical models to predict hospital length of stay after cardiac surgery in Ontario, Canada: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery is resource intensive and often requires multidisciplinary involvement to facilitate discharge. To facilitate evidence-based resource planning, we derived and validated clinical models to predict postoperative hospital length of stay (LOS). METHODS: We used linked, population-level databases with information on all Ontario residents and included patients aged 18 years or older who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, valvular or thoracic aorta surgeries between October 2008 and September 2019. The primary outcome was hospital LOS. The models were derived by using patients who had surgery before Sept. 30, 2016, and validated after that date. To address the rightward skew in LOS data and to identify top-tier resource users, we used logistic regression to derive a model to predict the likelihood of LOS being more than the 98th percentile (> 30 d), and γ regression in the remainder to predict continuous LOS in days. We used backward stepwise variable selection for both models. RESULTS: Among 105 193 patients, 2422 (2.3%) had an LOS of more than 30 days. Factors predicting prolonged LOS included age, female sex, procedure type and urgency, comorbidities including frailty, high-risk acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction and psychiatric and pulmonary circulatory disease. The C statistic was 0.92 for the prolonged LOS model and the mean absolute error was 2.4 days for the continuous LOS model. INTERPRETATION: We derived and validated clinical models to identify top-tier resource users and predict continuous LOS with excellent accuracy. Our models could be used to benchmark clinical performance based on expected LOS, rationally allocate resources and support patient-centred operative decision-making.

Derivation and validation of predictive indices for cardiac readmission after coronary and valvular surgery - A multicenter study.

Objective: To derive and validate models to predict the risk of a cardiac readmission within one year after specific cardiac surgeries using information that is commonly available from hospital electronic medical records. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we derived and externally validated clinical models to predict the likelihood of cardiac readmissions within one-year of isolated CABG, AVR, and combined CABG+AVR in Ontario, Canada, using multiple clinical registries and routinely collected administrative databases. For all adult patients who underwent these procedures, multiple Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard models were derived within a competing-risk framework using the cohort from April 2015 to March 2018 and validated in an independent cohort (April 2018 to March 2020). Results: For the model that predicted post-CABG cardiac readmission, the c-statistic was 0.73 in the derivation cohort and 0.70 in the validation cohort at one-year. For the model that predicted post-AVR cardiac readmission, the c-statistic was 0.74 in the derivation and 0.73 in the validation cohort at one-year. For the model that predicted cardiac readmission following CABG+AVR, the c-statistic was 0.70 in the derivation and 0.66 in the validation cohort at one-year. Conclusions: Prediction of one-year cardiac readmission for isolated CABG, AVR, and combined CABG+AVR can be achieved parsimoniously using multidimensional data sources. Model discrimination was better than existing models derived from single and multicenter registries.

Financial Incentives for Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation in Ontario, Canada: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

Background Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a minimally invasive therapy for patients with severe aortic stenosis, which has become standard of care. The objective of this study was to determine the maximum cost-effective investment in TAVI care that should be made at a health system level to meet quality indicator goals. Methods and Results We performed a cost-utility analysis using probabilistic patient-level simulation of TAVI care from the Ontario, Canada, Ministry of Health perspective. Costs and health utilities were accrued over a 2-year time horizon. We created 4 hypothetical strategies that represented TAVI care meeting ≥1 quality indicator targets, (1) reduced wait times, (2) reduced hospital length of stay, (3) reduced pacemaker use, and (4) combined strategy, and compared these with current TAVI care. Per-person costs, quality-adjusted life years, and clinical outcomes were estimated by the model. Using these, incremental net monetary benefits were calculated for each strategy at different cost-effectiveness thresholds between $0 and $100 000 per quality-adjusted life year. Clinical improvements over the current practice were estimated with all comparator strategies. In Ontario, achieving quality indicator benchmarks could avoid ≈26 wait-list deaths and 200 wait-list hospitalizations annually. Compared with current TAVI care, the incremental net monetary benefit for this strategy varied from $10 765 (±$8721) and $17 221 (±$8977). This would translate to an annual investment of between ≈$14 to ≈$22 million by the Ontario Ministry of Health to incentivize these performance measures being cost-effective. Conclusions This study has quantified the modest annual investment required and substantial clinical benefit of meeting improvement goals in TAVI care.

Crowdsourcing Health Policy with the Provider Community during a Crisis.

The COVID-19 pandemic presented the healthcare system with numerous challenges requiring an expedited process to address issues and identify necessary innovations. Crowdsourcing is a rapid, flexible and low-cost engagement approach that allows the user to collect substantial information from a large number of people. CorHealth Ontario worked with its cardiac, stroke and vascular stakeholders to develop provincial-level, evidence-based policy and protocol through data-driven crowdsourcing. The experiences of crowdsourcing through CorHealth's stakeholder forums, guidance memos, data and modelling activities and the resource centre form a transferable model for times of crisis wherein organizations must act quickly and effectively to meet stakeholder needs.

Impact of a Mandated Accreditation Process on 1,045 Registered Echocardiographic Service Providers in a Previously Unregulated, Publicly Funded Environment.

BACKGROUND: This review was undertaken to examine the impact of a standards-based, mandated accreditation process on several aspects of echocardiographic service delivery in a single-payer, previously unregulated environment. METHODS: In the province of Ontario, virtually all echocardiographic services are funded by the Ministry of Health and Long Term Care. The Echocardiography Quality Improvement (EQI) process was introduced in 2012 and subsequently linked formally to reimbursement in 2016. Previously, payment for echocardiographic services in Ontario was unregulated. The impact of EQI on the number of facilities, echocardiographic volumes, costs, quality standards, and physician service provision were compared before and after implementation. RESULTS: Of the initial 1,045 registrants, 604 (57.8%) have been accredited or accreditation is expected having successfully resolved identified deficiencies. The remaining registrants were either never functionally operating (323 [30.9%]) or have withdrawn services (118 [11.3%]) since mandatory registration became a requirement for reimbursement. A number of factors identified facilities that were able to most promptly meet EQI standards, including hospital-based, academic, and multiple-physician facilities. The average annual increase in the utilization of echocardiographic services before EQI was 6.7%, decreasing to 2.7% since. The proportion of repeat examinations decreased in community-based facilities. Since 2013, costs for echocardiographic services have totaled about $92.3 million less than predicted by pre-2012 trends. To address standards, some small, more isolated facilities sought out alliances with larger facilities, particularly those affiliated with academic hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: EQI is demonstrably a means for improving quality while reducing the rate of growth and repeat examinations.

Predictors of cumulative cost for patients with severe aortic stenosis referred for surgical or transcatheter aortic valve replacement: a population-based study in Ontario, Canada.

AIMS: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) as an alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) has transformed severe aortic stenosis (AS) management. Our aim was understand AS cost drivers from referral to 1-year post-procedure. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified patients referred for either TAVR/SAVR between 1 April 2015 and 31 March 2018, with follow-up until 31 March 2019 in Ontario, Canada. We stratified costs into (i) a referral phase, (ii) a procedural phase from the procedure date to 60 days post-procedure, and (iii) post-procedure phase from 61 days to 1 year. Multivariable regression modelling using generalized linear models with a log link gamma distribution was used to identify cost drivers in each phase. The study cohort included 12 086 AS patients; 4832 were referred for TAVR and 7254 were referred for SAVR. The median cost for TAVR was higher than SAVR in the referral ($3593 vs. $2944) and post-procedural ($5938 vs. $3257) phases. In contrast, for the procedural phase, SAVR had a median cost of $29 756 vs. $27 907 for TAVR. Predictors of high cost in the referral phase were longer wait-time, and an urgent in-hospital procedure. In the procedural phase, procedural complications were the major drivers of higher cost. In the post-procedural phase, patient co-morbidities were the major drivers, specifically dialysis, liver disease, cancer, peripheral vascular disease, and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: We identified distinct patterns of cost accumulation and modifiable drivers for SAVR compared with TAVR; these drivers may guide clinical and health policy decisions to make AS care more efficient.

Increasing Wait-Time Mortality for Severe Aortic Stenosis: A Population-Level Study of the Transition in Practice From Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement to Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has emerged as a reasonable alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) for patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS). There is limited data on temporal trends in wait-times and access to care for patients with AS, irrespective of treatment modality. We sought to investigate the trends in wait-times for the treatment (either SAVR or TAVR) of AS in Ontario, Canada, and to understand the drivers of wait-list mortality and hospitalization due to heart failure. METHODS: In this population-level retrospective cohort study, we identified patients from April 1, 2012, to March 31, 2018, who were referred for treatment of symptomatic severe AS awaiting either SAVR or TAVR. The primary outcome was the median total wait-time from referral date to either SAVR or TAVR procedure. Primary clinical outcomes were all-cause mortality and heart failure-related hospitalizations while on the wait-list. RESULTS: The referral cohort consisted of a total of 22 876 referrals for aortic valve replacement, with (N=8098) TAVR and (N=14 778) SAVR referrals. The mean and median wait times for the overall AVR cohort were 87 and 59 days, respectively. The TAVR subcohort had longer wait-times (median 84 days) compared with the SAVR subcohort (median 50 days). Year over year, there was a statistically significant an increase in wait-times (P<0.001) for the overall AS cohort as well as each of the TAVR (P<0.0001) and SAVR (P<0.0001) subgroups. Wait-time mortality was 2.5% (TAVR 5.2% and SAVR 1.05%), while the cumulative probability of heart failure hospitalization was 3.6% (TAVR 7.7% and SAVR 1.3%). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with severe symptomatic AS awaiting aortic valve replacement, there has been a trend of increasing wait times for both SAVR and TAVR. This was associated with increasing mortality and hospitalizations related to heart failure while on the wait-list.

The Use of Decision Modelling to Inform Timely Policy Decisions on Cardiac Resource Capacity During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

In Ontario on March 16, 2020, a directive was issued to all acute care hospitals to halt nonessential procedures in anticipation of a potential surge in COVID-19 patients. This included scheduled outpatient cardiac surgical and interventional procedures that required the use of intensive care units, ventilators, and skilled critical care personnel, given that these procedures would draw from the same pool of resources required for critically ill COVID-19 patients. We adapted the COVID-19 Resource Estimator (CORE) decision analytic model by adding a cardiac component to determine the impact of various policy decisions on the incremental waitlist growth and estimated waitlist mortality for 3 key groups of cardiovascular disease patients: coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, and arrhythmias. We provided predictions based on COVID-19 epidemiology available in real-time, in 3 phases. First, in the initial crisis phase, in a worst case scenario, we showed that the potential number of waitlist related cardiac deaths would be orders of magnitude less than those who would die of COVID-19 if critical cardiac care resources were diverted to the care of COVID-19 patients. Second, with better local epidemiology data, we predicted that across 5 regions of Ontario, there may be insufficient resources to resume all elective outpatient cardiac procedures. Finally in the recovery phase, we showed that the estimated incremental growth in waitlist for all cardiac procedures is likely substantial. These outputs informed timely data-driven decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic regarding the provision of cardiovascular care.

Inequity in Access to Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Pan-Canadian Evaluation of Wait-Times.

BACKGROUND: There has been an exponential increase in the demand for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Our goal was to examine trends in TAVR capacity and wait-times across Canada. METHODS: All TAVR cases were identified from April 1, 2014, to March 31, 2017. Wait-time was defined as the duration in days from the initial referral to the TAVR procedure. TAVR capacity was defined as the number of TAVR procedures per million population/province/fiscal year. We performed multivariable multilevel Cox proportional hazards modelling of the time to TAVR as the dependant variable and the effect of provinces as random effects. We quantified the variation in wait-times among provinces using the median hazard ratio. RESULTS: We identified a total of 4906 TAVR procedures across 9 provinces. Despite a year over year increase in overall capacity, there was a greater than 3-fold difference in capacity between provinces. Crude median wait-times increased over time in all provinces, with marked variation from 71.5 days in Newfoundland to 190.5 and 203 days in Manitoba and Alberta, respectively. This suggests increasing demand outpaced the growth in capacity. We found a median hazard ratio of 1.62, indicating that in half of the possible pairwise comparisons, the time to TAVR for identical patients was at least 62% longer between different provinces. CONCLUSION: We found substantial geographic inequity in TAVR access. This calls for policy makers, clinicians, and administrators across Canada to address this inequity through revaluation of provincial funding mechanisms, as well as implementation of efficient care pathways.

Personal Support Worker (PSW)-supported home hemodialysis: A paradigm shift.

INTRODUCTION: Despite improving clinical outcomes associated with the use of home hemodialysis (HD), its utilization is low in most countries. The inability or unwillingness of patients and their families to participate in their own treatment is one of the most important barriers to the adoption of home HD. METHODS: We hypothesized that paid helper-delivered home HD supported by public funds would be successful and welcomed by patients and be delivered at an affordable cost. We conducted a pilot project to dialyze six patients at home using Personal Support Workers (PSW) and resolve regulatory, organizational and financial constraints. FINDINGS: cWe provided publically-funded PSW-supported home HD to six patients. We describe the administrative structure of the pilot project allowing scalability and turnkey operation in the province of Ontario. Regulatory and insurance concerns were resolved and patients and staff were enthusiastic. The projected total dialysis cost, when economies of scale are met, are expected to be lower than the cost of in-center HD. DISCUSSION: A second phase of the project is currently under way including 8 hospitals and 67 patients. If equally successful, it may have significant implications for the delivery of care for End Stage Renal Disease in Ontario and similar jurisdictions. It promises to increase the utilization of home dialysis possibly at a lower cost than in-center HD. This would be particularly important in providing dialysis in underserviced and geographically hard to access areas.

Evaluation of a mentorship program to support chronic kidney disease care.

PROBLEM ADDRESSED: Primary care providers (PCPs) are ideally situated to detect and manage patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but they could use more support from nephrologists to accomplish this. OBJECTIVE OF PROGRAM: To improve early detection and management of CKD in primary care, and improve referrals to nephrologists through education and greater partnership between nephrologists and PCPs. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION: Nephrologists provided mentorship to PCPs in Ontario through a collaborative relationship. Nephrologists provided PCPs with educational orientation sessions and need-based advice on patient cases. CONCLUSION: Primary care providers with more than 5 years of experience were more likely to use the program. Primary care providers expressed high satisfaction with the program and reported that it was effective in supporting routine CKD screening efforts, management of early CKD, appropriate referrals, and building a collaborative relationship with nephrologists.

Implementation of an agency to improve chronic kidney disease care in Ontario: lessons learned by the Ontario Renal Network.

In 2009, Ontario's Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care initiated the transfer of oversight and coordination of chronic kidney disease (CKD) care to the Ontario Renal Network (ORN) under the auspices of Cancer Care Ontario (CCO). The aim was to replicate the quality improvement and change management practices used for cancer control within CKD. Much of the ORN's first three years were dedicated to building the infrastructure necessary to bridge the gap between provincial policy and clinical practice. This article explores the accomplishments, challenges and lessons learned over that period. The results, which are applicable to the management of chronic diseases in Ontario, Canada, and internationally, confirm that sustainable change takes time and requires strong leadership, transparency, accountability and communication, supported by a solid foundation of data and evidence.

Defining needs-based urban health planning areas is feasible and desirable: a population-based approach in Toronto, Ontario.

Reporting health data for large urban areas presents numerous challenges. In the case of Toronto, Ontario, amalgamation in 1998 merged six census subdivisions into one mega-city, resulting in the disappearance of standard reporting units. A population-based approach was used to define new health planning areas. Census tracts were used as building blocks and combined according to residential income homogeneity, respecting natural and man-made boundaries, forward sortation areas and the City of Toronto's community neighbourhoods whenever possible. Correlations and maps were used to establish area boundaries. The city was divided into 5 major planning areas which were further subdivided creating 15 minor areas. Both major and minor areas showed significant differences in population characteristics, health status and health service utilization. This commentary demonstrates the feasibility and describes the outcomes of one method for establishing planning and reporting areas in large urban centres. Next steps include the further generation of health data for these areas, comparisons with other Canadian urban areas, and application of these methods to recently announced Ontario Local Health Integration Networks. These areas can be used for planning and evaluating health service delivery, comparison with other Canadian urban areas and ongoing monitoring of and advocacy for equity in health.

Variation in emergency department visits for conditions that may be treated in alternative primary care settings.

The purpose of this report is to examine Ontario's geographic variation in emergency department (ED) visits for conditions that may be treated in alternative primary care settings. We studied all visits to Ontario EDs in 2002/03 and calculated county-specific age-standardized rates. Overall in Ontario, there were 3174 ED visits per 100,000 population aged 1-74 for conditions that could be treated in alternate primary care settings, but rates varied widely across counties. They were higher in rural counties with rates up to 7-fold higher than the provincial average. Urban counties had lower rates, some were less than one-third of the provincial average. Further research is needed to determine the relationship between ED utilization and primary care capacity.

Using overt rehearsals to explain word frequency effects in free recall.

Three experiments examined the word frequency effect in free recall using the overt rehearsal methodology. Experiment 1 showed that lists of exclusively high-frequency (HF) words were better recalled, were rehearsed more, and were rehearsed to more recent serial positions than low-frequency (LF) words. A small HF advantage remained even when these 2 variables were equated. Experiment 2 showed that all these effects were much reduced with mixed lists containing both HF and LF words. Experiment 3 compared pure and mixed lists in a within-subject design and confirmed the findings of Experiments 1 and 2. It is argued that number of rehearsals, recency of rehearsals, and strength of interitem associations cause the word frequency effect in free recall.

Under-reporting of live births in Ontario: 1991-1997.

OBJECTIVE: To examine unregistered births in Ontario and consider related factors, including adoption of administrative fees for birth registration. METHODS: Documents from both the parents and the attending physician are required for births to be entered into Ontario's live birth database. Our study used data from the Ontario Registrar General to look at the prevalence and characteristics of unregistered births, and a survey of municipal clerks to identify municipalities charging fees for parental documentation. RESULTS: The percentage of births going unrecorded increased threefold from 1991 to 1997. The odds of an unregistered birth were higher for teenage mothers, low birthweight babies, and mothers residing in a municipality that charged birth registration fees. CONCLUSION: The introduction of registration fees by some municipalities appears to account for an increase in unregistered births. It is recommended that the Ontario Registrar General work to remove financial and administrative barriers that compromise birth statistics.