Optimizing COVID-19 testing strategies on college campuses: Evaluation of the health and economic costs.

Colleges and universities in the US struggled to provide safe in-person education throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Testing coupled with isolation is a nimble intervention strategy that can be tailored to mitigate the changing health and economic risks associated with SARS-CoV-2. We developed a decision-support tool to aid in the design of university-based screening strategies using a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Applying this framework to a large public university reopening in the fall of 2021 with a 60% student vaccination rate, we find that the optimal strategy, in terms of health and economic costs, is twice weekly antigen testing of all students. This strategy provides a 95% guarantee that, throughout the fall semester, case counts would not exceed twice the CDC's original high transmission threshold of 100 cases per 100k persons over 7 days. As the virus and our medical armament continue to evolve, testing will remain a flexible tool for managing risks and keeping campuses open. We have implemented this model as an online tool to facilitate the design of testing strategies that adjust for COVID-19 conditions as well as campus-specific populations, resources, and priorities.

Real time monitoring of COVID-19 intervention effectiveness through contact tracing data.

Communities worldwide have used vaccines and facemasks to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. When an individual opts to vaccinate or wear a mask, they may lower their own risk of becoming infected as well as the risk that they pose to others while infected. The first benefit-reducing susceptibility-has been established across multiple studies, while the second-reducing infectivity-is less well understood. Using a new statistical method, we estimate the efficacy of vaccines and facemasks at reducing both types of risks from contact tracing data collected in an urban setting. We find that vaccination reduced the risk of onward transmission by 40.7% [95% CI 25.8-53.2%] during the Delta wave and 31.0% [95% CI 19.4-40.9%] during the Omicron wave and that mask wearing reduced the risk of infection by 64.2% [95% CI 5.8-77.3%] during the Omicron wave. By harnessing commonly-collected contact tracing data, the approach can broadly provide timely and actionable estimates of intervention efficacy against a rapidly evolving pathogen.

Disproportionate impacts of COVID-19 in a large US city.

COVID-19 has disproportionately impacted individuals depending on where they live and work, and based on their race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Studies have documented catastrophic disparities at critical points throughout the pandemic, but have not yet systematically tracked their severity through time. Using anonymized hospitalization data from March 11, 2020 to June 1, 2021 and fine-grain infection hospitalization rates, we estimate the time-varying burden of COVID-19 by age group and ZIP code in Austin, Texas. During this 15-month period, we estimate an overall 23.7% (95% CrI: 22.5-24.8%) infection rate and 29.4% (95% CrI: 28.0-31.0%) case reporting rate. Individuals over 65 were less likely to be infected than younger age groups (11.2% [95% CrI: 10.3-12.0%] vs 25.1% [95% CrI: 23.7-26.4%]), but more likely to be hospitalized (1,965 per 100,000 vs 376 per 100,000) and have their infections reported (53% [95% CrI: 49-57%] vs 28% [95% CrI: 27-30%]). We used a mixed effect poisson regression model to estimate disparities in infection and reporting rates as a function of social vulnerability. We compared ZIP codes ranking in the 75th percentile of vulnerability to those in the 25th percentile, and found that the more vulnerable communities had 2.5 (95% CrI: 2.0-3.0) times the infection rate and only 70% (95% CrI: 60%-82%) the reporting rate compared to the less vulnerable communities. Inequality persisted but declined significantly over the 15-month study period. Our results suggest that further public health efforts are needed to mitigate local COVID-19 disparities and that the CDC's social vulnerability index may serve as a reliable predictor of risk on a local scale when surveillance data are limited.

Optimizing COVID-19 testing strategies on college campuses: evaluation of the health and economic costs.

Colleges and universities in the US struggled to provide safe in-person education throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Testing coupled with isolation is a nimble intervention strategy that can be tailored to mitigate health and economic costs, as the virus and our arsenal of medical countermeasures continue to evolve. We developed a decision-support tool to aid in the design of university-based testing strategies using a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Applying this framework to a large public university reopening in the fall of 2021 with a 60% student vaccination rate, we find that the optimal strategy, in terms of health and economic costs, is twice weekly antigen testing of all students. This strategy provides a 95% guarantee that, throughout the fall semester, case counts would not exceed the CDC's original high transmission threshold of 100 cases per 100k persons over 7 days. As the virus and our medical armament continue to evolve, testing will remain a flexible tool for managing risks and keeping campuses open. We have implemented this model as an online tool to facilitate the design of testing strategies that adjust for COVID-19 conditions, university-specific parameters, and institutional goals.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data.

Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early January 2021. As precautionary behaviors increased safety in public spaces, the relationship between mobility and transmission weakened. We estimate that mobility-associated transmission was 62% (95% CrI: 52 to 68%) lower in February 2021 compared to March 2020. In a retrospective comparison, the 95% CrIs of our 1, 2, and 3 wk ahead forecasts contained 93.6%, 89.9%, and 87.7% of reported data, respectively. Developed by a task force including scientists, public health officials, policy makers, and hospital executives, this model can reliably project COVID-19 healthcare needs in US cities.

Teacher Mindsets Help Explain Where a Growth-Mindset Intervention Does and Doesn't Work.

A growth-mindset intervention teaches the belief that intellectual abilities can be developed. Where does the intervention work best? Prior research examined school-level moderators using data from the National Study of Learning Mindsets (NSLM), which delivered a short growth-mindset intervention during the first year of high school. In the present research, we used data from the NSLM to examine moderation by teachers' mindsets and answer a new question: Can students independently implement their growth mindsets in virtually any classroom culture, or must students' growth mindsets be supported by their teacher's own growth mindsets (i.e., the mindset-plus-supportive-context hypothesis)? The present analysis (9,167 student records matched with 223 math teachers) supported the latter hypothesis. This result stood up to potentially confounding teacher factors and to a conservative Bayesian analysis. Thus, sustaining growth-mindset effects may require contextual supports that allow the proffered beliefs to take root and flourish.

Real-Time Projections of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Variant in a University Setting, Texas, USA.

We used the incidence of spike gene target failures identified during PCR testing to provide an early projection of the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant B.1.1.7 in a university setting in Texas, USA, before sequencing results were available. Findings from a more recent evaluation validated those early projections.

Rapid diagnosis and tumor margin assessment during pancreatic cancer surgery with the MasSpec Pen technology.

Intraoperative delineation of tumor margins is critical for effective pancreatic cancer surgery. Yet, intraoperative frozen section analysis of tumor margins is a time-consuming and often challenging procedure that can yield confounding results due to histologic heterogeneity and tissue-processing artifacts. We have previously described the development of the MasSpec Pen technology as a handheld mass spectrometry-based device for nondestructive tissue analysis. Here, we evaluated the usefulness of the MasSpec Pen for intraoperative diagnosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma based on alterations in the metabolite and lipid profiles in in vivo and ex vivo tissues. We used the MasSpec Pen to analyze 157 banked human tissues, including pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, pancreatic, and bile duct tissues. Classification models generated from the molecular data yielded an overall agreement with pathology of 91.5%, sensitivity of 95.5%, and specificity of 89.7% for discriminating normal pancreas from cancer. We built a second classifier to distinguish bile duct from pancreatic cancer, achieving an overall accuracy of 95%, sensitivity of 92%, and specificity of 100%. We then translated the MasSpec Pen to the operative room and predicted on in vivo and ex vivo data acquired during 18 pancreatic surgeries, achieving 93.8% overall agreement with final postoperative pathology reports. Notably, when integrating banked tissue data with intraoperative data, an improved agreement of 100% was achieved. The result obtained demonstrate that the MasSpec Pen provides high predictive performance for tissue diagnosis and compatibility for intraoperative use, suggesting that the technology may be useful to guide surgical decision-making during pancreatic cancer surgeries.

Molecular Imaging of Endometriosis Tissues using Desorption Electrospray Ionization Mass Spectrometry.

Endometriosis is a pathologic condition affecting approximately 10% of women in their reproductive years. Characterized by abnormal growth of uterine endometrial tissue in other body areas, endometriosis can cause severe abdominal pain and/or infertility. Despite devastating consequences to patients' quality of life, the causes of endometriosis are not fully understood and validated diagnostic markers for endometriosis have not been identified. Molecular analyses of ectopic and eutopic endometrial tissues could lead to enhanced understanding of the disease. Here, we apply desorption electrospray ionization (DESI) mass spectrometry (MS) imaging to chemically and spatially characterize the molecular profiles of 231 eutopic and ectopic endometrial tissues from 89 endometriosis patients. DESI-MS imaging allowed clear visualization of endometrial glandular and stromal regions within tissue samples. Statistical models built from DESI-MS imaging data allowed classification of endometriosis lesions with overall accuracies of 89.4%, 98.4%, and 98.8% on training, validation, and test sample sets, respectively. Further, molecular markers that are significantly altered in ectopic endometrial tissues when compared to eutopic tissues were identified, including fatty acids and glycerophosphoserines. Our study showcases the value of MS imaging to investigate the molecular composition of endometriosis lesions and pinpoints metabolic markers that may provide new knowledge on disease pathogenesis.

Preoperative metabolic classification of thyroid nodules using mass spectrometry imaging of fine-needle aspiration biopsies.

Thyroid neoplasia is common and requires appropriate clinical workup with imaging and fine-needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy to evaluate for cancer. Yet, up to 20% of thyroid nodule FNA biopsies will be indeterminate in diagnosis based on cytological evaluation. Genomic approaches to characterize the malignant potential of nodules showed initial promise but have provided only modest improvement in diagnosis. Here, we describe a method using metabolic analysis by desorption electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (DESI-MS) imaging for direct analysis and diagnosis of follicular cell-derived neoplasia tissues and FNA biopsies. DESI-MS was used to analyze 178 tissue samples to determine the molecular signatures of normal, benign follicular adenoma (FTA), and malignant follicular carcinoma (FTC) and papillary carcinoma (PTC) thyroid tissues. Statistical classifiers, including benign thyroid versus PTC and benign thyroid versus FTC, were built and validated with 114,125 mass spectra, with accuracy assessed in correlation with clinical pathology. Clinical FNA smears were prospectively collected and analyzed using DESI-MS imaging, and the performance of the statistical classifiers was tested with 69 prospectively collected clinical FNA smears. High performance was achieved for both models when predicting on the FNA test set, which included 24 nodules with indeterminate preoperative cytology, with accuracies of 93% and 89%. Our results strongly suggest that DESI-MS imaging is a valuable technology for identification of malignant potential of thyroid nodules.