Identifying Unmet Needs in Major Depressive Disorder Using a Computer-Assisted Alternative to Conventional Thematic Analysis: Qualitative Interview Study With Psychiatrists.

BACKGROUND: The development of digital health tools that are clinically relevant requires a deep understanding of the unmet needs of stakeholders, such as clinicians and patients. One way to reveal unforeseen stakeholder needs is through qualitative research, including stakeholder interviews. However, conventional qualitative data analytical approaches are time-consuming and resource-intensive, rendering them untenable in many industry settings where digital tools are conceived of and developed. Thus, a more time-efficient process for identifying clinically relevant target needs for digital tool development is needed. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to address the need for an accessible, simple, and time-efficient alternative to conventional thematic analysis of qualitative research data through text analysis of semistructured interview transcripts. In addition, we sought to identify important themes across expert psychiatrist advisor interview transcripts to efficiently reveal areas for the development of digital tools that target unmet clinical needs. METHODS: We conducted 10 (1-hour-long) semistructured interviews with US-based psychiatrists treating major depressive disorder. The interviews were conducted using an interview guide that comprised open-ended questions predesigned to (1) understand the clinicians' experience of the care management process and (2) understand the clinicians' perceptions of the patients' experience of the care management process. We then implemented a hybrid analytical approach that combines computer-assisted text analyses with deductive analyses as an alternative to conventional qualitative thematic analysis to identify word combination frequencies, content categories, and broad themes characterizing unmet needs in the care management process. RESULTS: Using this hybrid computer-assisted analytical approach, we were able to identify several key areas that are of interest to clinicians in the context of major depressive disorder and would be appropriate targets for digital tool development. CONCLUSIONS: A hybrid approach to qualitative research combining computer-assisted techniques with deductive techniques provides a time-efficient approach to identifying unmet needs, targets, and relevant themes to inform digital tool development. This can increase the likelihood that useful and practical tools are built and implemented to ultimately improve health outcomes for patients.

Improving prediction of psychosis in youth at clinical high-risk: pre-baseline symptom duration and cortical thinning as moderators of the NAPLS2 risk calculator.

BACKGROUND: Clinical implementation of risk calculator models in the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has been hindered by heterogeneous risk distributions across study cohorts which could be attributed to pre-ascertainment illness progression. To examine this, we tested whether the duration of attenuated psychotic symptom (APS) worsening prior to baseline moderated performance of the North American prodrome longitudinal study 2 (NAPLS2) risk calculator. We also examined whether rates of cortical thinning, another marker of illness progression, bolstered clinical prediction models. METHODS: Participants from both the NAPLS2 and NAPLS3 samples were classified as either 'long' or 'short' symptom duration based on time since APS increase prior to baseline. The NAPLS2 risk calculator model was applied to each of these groups. In a subset of NAPLS3 participants who completed follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scans, change in cortical thickness was combined with the individual risk score to predict conversion to psychosis. RESULTS: The risk calculator models achieved similar performance across the combined NAPLS2/NAPLS3 sample [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], the long duration group (AUC = 0.71), and the short duration group (AUC = 0.71). The shorter duration group was younger and had higher baseline APS than the longer duration group. The addition of cortical thinning improved the prediction of conversion significantly for the short duration group (AUC = 0.84), with a moderate improvement in prediction for the longer duration group (AUC = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that early illness progression differs among CHR-P patients, is detectable with both clinical and neuroimaging measures, and could play an essential role in the prediction of clinical outcomes.

Opportunities for digital health technology: identifying unmet needs for bipolar misdiagnosis and depression care management.

Introduction: Digital health technologies (DHTs) driven by artificial intelligence applications, particularly those including predictive models derived with machine learning methods, have garnered substantial attention and financial investment in recent years. Yet, there is little evidence of widespread adoption and scant proof of gains in patient health outcomes. One factor of this paradox is the disconnect between DHT developers and digital health ecosystem stakeholders, which can result in developing technologies that are highly sophisticated but clinically irrelevant. Here, we aimed to uncover challenges faced by psychiatrists treating patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). Specifically, we focused on challenges psychiatrists raised about bipolar disorder (BD) misdiagnosis. Methods: We conducted semi-structured interviews with 10 United States-based psychiatrists. We applied text and thematic analysis to the resulting interview transcripts. Results: Three main themes emerged: (1) BD is often misdiagnosed, (2) information crucial to evaluating BD is often occluded from clinical observation, and (3) BD misdiagnosis has important treatment implications. Discussion: Using upstream stakeholder engagement methods, we were able to identify a narrow, unforeseen, and clinically relevant problem. We propose an organizing framework for development of digital tools based upon clinician-identified unmet need.

Dynamic Prediction of Outcomes for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Joint Modeling Approach.

Importance: Leveraging the dynamic nature of clinical variables in the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has the potential to significantly improve the performance of outcome prediction models. Objective: To improve performance of prediction models and elucidate dynamic clinical profiles using joint modeling to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were collected as part of the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 3), which is a 9-site prospective longitudinal study. Participants were individuals aged 12 to 30 years who met criteria for a psychosis-risk syndrome. Clinical, neurocognitive, and demographic variables were collected at baseline and at multiple follow-up visits, beginning at 2 months and up to 24 months. An initial feature selection process identified longitudinal clinical variables that showed differential change for each outcome group across 2 months. With these variables, a joint modeling framework was used to estimate the likelihood of eventual outcomes. Models were developed and tested in a 10-fold cross-validation framework. Clinical data were collected between February 2015 and November 2018, and data were analyzed from February 2022 to December 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prediction models were built to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Participants met criteria for conversion if their positive symptoms reached the fully psychotic range and for symptom remission if they were subprodromal on the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms for a duration of 6 months or more. Results: Of 488 included NAPLS 3 participants, 232 (47.5%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 18.2 (3.4) years. Joint models achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting conversion (balanced accuracy [BAC], 0.91) and remission (BAC, 0.99) compared with baseline models (conversion: BAC, 0.65; remission: BAC, 0.60). Clinical variables that showed differential change between outcome groups across a 2-month span, including measures of symptom severity and aspects of functioning, were also identified. Further, intra-individual risks for each outcome were more negatively correlated when using joint models (r = -0.92; P < .001) compared with baseline models (r = -0.50; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, joint models significantly outperformed baseline models in predicting both conversion and remission, demonstrating that monitoring short-term clinical change may help to parse heterogeneous dynamic clinical trajectories in a CHR-P population. These findings could inform additional study of targeted treatment selection and could move the field closer to clinical implementation of prediction models.

Individualized Prediction of Prodromal Symptom Remission for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

The clinical high-risk period before a first episode of psychosis (CHR-P) has been widely studied with the goal of understanding the development of psychosis; however, less attention has been paid to the 75%-80% of CHR-P individuals who do not transition to psychosis. It is an open question whether multivariable models could be developed to predict remission outcomes at the same level of performance and generalizability as those that predict conversion to psychosis. Participants were drawn from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS3). An empirically derived set of clinical and demographic predictor variables were selected with elastic net regularization and were included in a gradient boosting machine algorithm to predict prodromal symptom remission. The predictive model was tested in a comparably sized independent sample (NAPLS2). The classification algorithm developed in NAPLS3 achieved an area under the curve of 0.66 (0.60-0.72) with a sensitivity of 0.68 and specificity of 0.53 when tested in an independent external sample (NAPLS2). Overall, future remitters had lower baseline prodromal symptoms than nonremitters. This study is the first to use a data-driven machine-learning approach to assess clinical and demographic predictors of symptomatic remission in individuals who do not convert to psychosis. The predictive power of the models in this study suggest that remission represents a unique clinical phenomenon. Further study is warranted to best understand factors contributing to resilience and recovery from the CHR-P state.

Prediction and Prevention in the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis Paradigm: A Review of the Current Status and Recommendations for Future Directions of Inquiry.

Prediction and prevention of negative clinical and functional outcomes represent the two primary objectives of research conducted within the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm. Several multivariable "risk calculator" models have been developed to predict the likelihood of developing psychosis, although these models have not been translated to clinical use. Overall, less progress has been made in developing effective interventions. In this paper, we review the existing literature on both prediction and prevention in the CHR-P paradigm and, primarily, outline ways in which expanding and combining these paths of inquiry could lead to a greater improvement in individual outcomes for those most at risk.

Selection for psychosocial treatment for youth at clinical high risk for psychosis based on the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study individualized risk calculator.

AIM: Recent findings suggest that family-focused therapy (FFT) is effective for individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P). As outcomes of CHR-P individuals are quite varied, certain psychosocial interventions may be differentially effective in subgroups. The present study examined change in positive symptoms for CHR-P individuals at different levels of predicted risk for conversion to psychosis who received either FFT, a brief form of family education termed enhanced care (EC) or treatment as usual. METHODS: Participants were drawn from the North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2). A subset of NAPLS2 participants completed a randomized study involving FFT or EC. The present study includes participants from the FFT-CHR sub-study and non-randomized NAPLS2 participants. Predicted risk of conversion was calculated using the Individualized Risk Calculator for Psychosis. Robust linear regressions evaluated whether the association between predicted risk of conversion and positive symptom change differed across intervention groups. RESULTS: A total of 94 participants from the FFT-CHR sub-study (FFT-CHR n = 50, EC n = 44) and 401 non-randomized NAPLS2 participants were included in this study. There was a treatment group by predicted risk of conversion interaction that predicted positive symptom improvement: higher risk individuals improved more with FFT-CHR than EC or the non-randomized NAPLS group, whereas lower-risk individuals did not differ in positive symptom improvement across treatment groups (FFT-CHR vs EC: P = .03, ß = 20.27; FFT-CHR vs NAPLS2: P < .001, ß = 28.40). CONCLUSIONS: Intensive treatments such as FFT-CHR may be most appropriate for individuals at the highest levels of clinical risk for psychosis.

Incorporating cortisol into the NAPLS2 individualized risk calculator for prediction of psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Risk calculators are useful tools that can help clinicians and researchers better understand an individual's risk of conversion to psychosis. The North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2) Individualized Risk Calculator has good predictive accuracy but could be potentially improved by the inclusion of a biomarker. Baseline cortisol, a measure of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis functioning that is impacted by biological vulnerability to stress and exposure to environmental stressors, has been shown to be higher among individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHRP) who eventually convert to psychosis than those who do not. We sought to determine whether the addition of baseline cortisol to the NAPLS2 risk calculator improved the performance of the risk calculator. METHODS: Participants were drawn from the NAPLS2 study. A subset of NAPLS2 participants provided salivary cortisol samples. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression evaluated the likelihood of an individual's eventual conversion to psychosis based on demographic and clinical variables in addition to baseline cortisol levels. RESULTS: A total of 417 NAPLS2 participants provided salivary cortisol and were included in the analysis. Higher levels of cortisol were predictive of conversion to psychosis in a univariate model (C-index = 0.59, HR = 21.5, p-value = 0.004). The inclusion of cortisol in the risk calculator model resulted in a statistically significant improvement in performance from the original risk calculator model (C-index = 0.78, SE = 0.028). CONCLUSIONS: Salivary cortisol is an inexpensive and non-invasive biomarker that could improve individual predictions about conversion to psychosis and treatment decisions for CHR-P individuals.

Prospective prediction of PTSD diagnosis in a nationally representative sample using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Recent research has identified a number of pre-traumatic, peri-traumatic and post-traumatic psychological and ecological factors that put an individual at increased risk for developing PTSD following a life-threatening event. While these factors have been found to be associated with PTSD in univariate analyses, the complex interactions of these risk factors and how they contribute to individual trajectories of the illness are not yet well understood. In this study, we examine the impact of prior trauma, psychopathology, sociodemographic characteristics, community and environmental information, on PTSD onset in a nationally representative sample of adults in the United States, using machine learning methods to establish the relative contributions of each variable. METHODS: Individual risk factors identified in Waves 1 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) were combined with community-level data for the years concurrent to the NESARC Wave 1 (n = 43,093) and 2 (n = 34,653) surveys. Machine learning feature selection and classification analyses were used at the national level to create models using individual- and community-level variables that would best predict the new onset of PTSD at Wave 2. RESULTS: Our classification algorithms yielded 89.7 to 95.6% accuracy for predicting new onset of PTSD at Wave 2. A prior diagnosis of DSM-IV-TR Borderline Personality Disorder, Major Depressive Disorder or Anxiety Disorder conferred the greatest relative influence in new diagnosis of PTSD. Distal risk factors such as prior psychiatric diagnosis accounted for significantly greater relative risk than proximal factors (such as adverse event exposure). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that a machine learning classification approach can successfully integrate large numbers of known risk factors for PTSD into stronger models that account for high-dimensional interactions and collinearity between variables. We discuss the implications of these findings as pertaining to the targeted mobilization emergency mental health resources. These findings also inform the creation of a more comprehensive risk assessment profile to the likelihood of developing PTSD following an extremely adverse event.

Air pollution and hippocampal atrophy in first episode schizophrenia.

Air pollution has recently been linked to central nervous system (CNS) diseases, possibly mediated by inflammation and oxidative stress. Hippocampal atrophy in individuals with first episode schizophrenia (FES) has also been associated with biomarkers of inflammation and oxidative stress, whereas hippocampal atrophy was not observed in matched healthy controls with similar biomarker levels of inflammation and oxidative stress. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5), one component of air pollution, is most strongly implicated in CNS disease. The present study examined the association between PM2.5 and hippocampal volume in individuals with FES who participated in a 52-week placebo-controlled clinical trial of citalopram added to clinician-determined antipsychotic treatment at four sites in the US and China. Left hippocampal volumetric integrity (LHVI; inversely related to atrophy) was measured at baseline and week 52 using an automated highly-reliable algorithm. Mean annual PM2.5 concentrations were obtained from records compiled by the World Health Organization. The relationships between baseline LHVI and PM2.5 and change in LHVI and PM2.5 were evaluated using regression analyses. 89 participants completed imaging at baseline and 46 participants completed imaging at week 52. Mean annual PM2.5 was significantly associated with both baseline LHVI and change in LHVI after controlling for age, sex, baseline LHVI, duration of untreated psychosis and baseline antipsychotic medication dose. Air pollution may contribute to the progression of hippocampal atrophy after a first episode of illness, but these findings should be considered preliminary since other unmeasured factors may have differed between cities and contributed to the observed effect.

Discovery and Validation of Prediction Algorithms for Psychosis in Youths at Clinical High Risk.

In the past 2 to 3 decades, clinicians have used the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm to better understand factors that contribute to the onset of psychotic disorders. While this paradigm is useful to identify individuals at risk, the CHR-P criteria are not sufficient to predict outcomes from the CHR-P population. Because approximately 25% of the CHR-P population will ultimately convert to psychosis, more precise methods of prediction are needed to account for heterogeneity in both risk factors and outcomes in the CHR-P population. To this end, several groups in recent years have used data-driven approaches to refine predictive algorithms to predict both conversion to psychosis and functional outcomes. These models have generally used either clinical and behavioral data, including demographics and measures of symptom severity, neurocognitive functioning, and social functioning, or neuroimaging data, including structural and functional measures, to predict conversion to psychosis in CHR-P samples. This review focuses on the empirical models that have been derived within each of these lines of research and evaluates the performance and methodology of these models. This review also serves to inform best practices for data-driven approaches and directions moving forward to improve our prediction of psychotic disorders and associated outcomes. Because sample size is still the most critical consideration in the current models, we urge that algorithms to predict conversion be conducted using multisite data in order to obtain the power necessary to conclusively determine predictive accuracy without overfitting.