Effect of race on the measurement of angiogenic factors for prediction and diagnosis of pre-eclampsia.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of self-declared race on serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio and the impact on pre-eclampsia (PE) prediction. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Two UK maternity hospitals. POPULATION: 29 035 women with singleton pregnancies attending a routine 35+0 to 36+6 weeks' gestation hospital visit, including 654 (2.3%) who subsequently developed PE. METHODS: The predictive performance of PlGF and sFlt-1/PlGF for PE in minority racial groups (versus white) was examined. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Delivery with PE. RESULTS: Compared with white women, mean PlGF was higher and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio lower in black, South Asian, East Asian and mixed race women. In white women at a PlGF concentration cut-off corresponding to a screen-positive rate (SPR) of 10%, detection rates (DRs) were 49.1% for PE at any time and 72.3% for PE within 2 weeks after screening. In black women, at the same PlGF concentration cut-off for white women, the SPR was 5.5%, and DRs 33.6% and 55.0%, respectively; the number of PE cases was too small to evaluate screening performance in other racial groups. Using a fixed cut-off in sFlt-1/PlGF ratio to identify women at risk of developing PE, similarly diagnostically disadvantaged black women. Bias was overcome by adjusting metabolite concentrations for maternal characteristics and use of the competing risks model to estimate patient-specific risks. CONCLUSION: Screening for PE with fixed cut-offs in PlGF or sFlt-1/PlGF diagnostically disadvantages black women. It is essential that measured levels of PlGF be adjusted for race as well as other maternal characteristics.

Measuring Progress on the Control of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) at a Regional Level: The Minnesota N212 Regional Control Project (Rcp) as a Working Example.

Due to the highly transmissible nature of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), implementation of regional programs to control the disease may be critical. Because PRRS is not reported in the US, numerous voluntary regional control projects (RCPs) have been established. However, the effect of RCPs on PRRS control has not been assessed yet. This study aims to quantify the extent to which RCPs contribute to PRRS control by proposing a methodological framework to evaluate the progress of RCPs. Information collected between July 2012 and June 2015 from the Minnesota Voluntary Regional PRRS Elimination Project (RCP-N212) was used. Demography of premises (e.g. composition of farms with sows = SS and without sows = NSS) was assessed by a repeated analysis of variance. By using general linear mixed-effects models, active participation of farms enrolled in the RCP-N212, defined as the decision to share (or not to share) PRRS status, was evaluated and used as a predictor, along with other variables, to assess the PRRS trend over time. Additionally, spatial and temporal patterns of farmers' participation and the disease dynamics were investigated. The number of farms enrolled in RCP-N212 and its geographical coverage increased, but the proportion of SS and NSS did not vary significantly over time. A significant increasing (p<0.001) trend in farmers' decision to share PRRS status was observed, but with NSS producers less willing to report and a large variability between counties. The incidence of PRRS significantly (p<0.001) decreased, showing a negative correlation between degree of participation and occurrence of PRRS (p<0.001) and a positive correlation with farm density at the county level (p = 0.02). Despite a noted decrease in PRRS, significant spatio-temporal patterns of incidence of the disease over 3-weeks and 3-kms during the entire study period were identified. This study established a systematic approach to quantify the effect of RCPs on PRRS control. Despite an increase in number of farms enrolled in the RCP-N212, active participation is not ensured. By evaluating the effect of participation on the occurrence of PRRS, the value of sharing information among producers may be demonstrated, in turn justifying the existence of RCPs.

The Cannabinoid Use in Progressive Inflammatory brain Disease (CUPID) trial: a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled parallel-group multicentre trial and economic evaluation of cannabinoids to slow progression in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The Cannabinoid Use in Progressive Inflammatory brain Disease (CUPID) trial aimed to determine whether or not oral Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (Δ(9)-THC) slowed the course of progressive multiple sclerosis (MS); evaluate safety of cannabinoid administration; and, improve methods for testing treatments in progressive MS. OBJECTIVES: There were three objectives in the CUPID study: (1) to evaluate whether or not Δ(9)-THC could slow the course of progressive MS; (2) to assess the long-term safety of Δ(9)-THC; and (3) to explore newer ways of conducting clinical trials in progressive MS. DESIGN: The CUPID trial was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, multicentre trial. Patients were randomised in a 2 : 1 ratio to Δ(9)-THC or placebo. Randomisation was balanced according to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, study site and disease type. Analyses were by intention to treat, following a pre-specified statistical analysis plan. A cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) substudy, Rasch measurement theory (RMT) analyses and an economic evaluation were undertaken. SETTING: Twenty-seven UK sites. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 18-65 years with primary or secondary progressive MS, 1-year evidence of disease progression and baseline EDSS 4.0-6.5. INTERVENTIONS: Oral Δ(9)-THC (maximum 28 mg/day) or matching placebo. ASSESSMENT VISITS: Three and 6 months, and then 6-monthly up to 36 or 42 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were time to EDSS progression, and change in Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale-29 version 2 (MSIS-29v2) 20-point physical subscale (MSIS-29phys) score. Various secondary patient- and clinician-reported outcomes and MRI outcomes were assessed. RMT analyses examined performance of MS-specific rating scales as measurement instruments and tested for a symptomatic or disease-modifying treatment effect. Economic evaluation estimated mean incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: Effectiveness - recruitment targets were achieved. Of the 498 randomised patients (332 to active and 166 to placebo), 493 (329 active and 164 placebo) were analysed. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: no significant treatment effect; hazard ratio EDSS score progression (active : placebo) 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 1.23]; and estimated between-group difference in MSIS-29phys score (active-placebo) -0.9 points (95% CI -2.0 to 0.2 points). Secondary clinical and MRI outcomes: no significant treatment effects. Safety - at least one serious adverse event: 35% and 28% of active and placebo patients, respectively. RMT analyses - scale evaluation: MSIS-29 version 2, MS Walking Scale-12 version 2 and MS Spasticity Scale-88 were robust measurement instruments. There was no clear symptomatic or disease-modifying treatment effect. Economic evaluation - estimated mean incremental cost to NHS over usual care, over 3 years £27,443.20 per patient. No between-group difference in QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: The CUPID trial failed to demonstrate a significant treatment effect in primary or secondary outcomes. There were no major safety concerns, but unwanted side effects seemed to affect compliance. Participants were more disabled than in previous studies and deteriorated less than expected, possibly reducing our ability to detect treatment effects. RMT analyses supported performance of MS-specific rating scales as measures, enabled group- and individual person-level examination of treatment effects, but did not influence study inferences. The intervention had significant additional costs with no improvement in health outcomes; therefore, it was dominated by usual care and not cost-effective. Future work should focus on determining further factors to predict clinical deterioration, to inform the development of new studies, and modifying treatments in order to minimise side effects and improve study compliance. The absence of disease-modifying treatments in progressive MS warrants further studies of the cannabinoid pathway in potential neuroprotection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN62942668. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme, the Medical Research Council Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation programme, Multiple Sclerosis Society and Multiple Sclerosis Trust. The report will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 12. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Autocorrelation and cross-correlation between hCGß and PAPP-A in repeated sampling during first trimester of pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Theoretically, repeated sampling of free ß-human chorionic gonadotropin (hCGß) and pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in the first trimester of pregnancy might improve performance of risk assessment of trisomy 21 (T21). To assess the performance of a screening test involving repeated measures of biochemical markers, correlations between markers must be estimated. The aims of this study were to calculate the autocorrelation and cross-correlation between hCGß and PAPP-A in the first trimester of pregnancy and to investigate the possible impact of gestational age at the first sample and time between sampling on the correlation. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted including 3891 unaffected singleton pregnancies. Two measurements of hCGß and PAPP-A were obtained during the first trimester in each pregnancy. Correlations between the four parameters, hCGß first, hCGß second, PAPP-A first and PAPP-A second, were estimated and presented in terms of Pearson's r coefficients. Furthermore, the correlation between paired samples as a function of time between samples was investigated. RESULTS: The study demonstrated high correlation between first and second samples of hCGß and PAPP-A with a correlation coefficient of 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. By contrast, the correlations between hCGß and PAPP-A were low. In addition, the study demonstrated that the correlation between paired samples of hCGß and PAPP-A decreases with earlier gestational age at the first sample and with increasing time between samples. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a parameter set in terms of correlations between biochemical markers, which can be incorporated into a T21 screening algorithm based on repeated measures within the first trimester.

Using the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale to estimate health state utility values: mapping from the MSIS-29, version 2, to the EQ-5D and the SF-6D.

OBJECTIVES: The 29-item Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29) is a psychometrically validated patient-reported outcome measure increasingly used in trials of treatments for multiple sclerosis. However, it is non-preference-based and not amenable for use across policy decision-making contexts. Our objective was to statistically map from the MSIS-29, version 2, to the EuroQol five-dimension (EQ-5D) and the six-dimension health state short form (derived from short form 36 health survey) (SF-6D) to estimate algorithms for use in cost-effectiveness analyses. METHODS: The relationships between MSIS-29, version 2, and EQ-5D and SF-6D scores were estimated by using data from a cohort of people with multiple sclerosis in South West England (n=672). Six ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit, and censored least adjusted deviation (CLAD) regression analyses were conducted on estimation samples, including the use of subscale and item scores, squared and interaction terms, and demographics. Algorithms from models with the smallest estimation errors (mean absolute error [MAE], root mean square error [RMSE], normalized RMSE) were then assessed by using separate validation samples. RESULTS: Tobit and CLAD. For the EQ-5D, the OLS models including subscale squared terms, and item scores and demographics performed comparably (MAE 0.147, RMSE 0.202 and MAE 0.147, RMSE 0.203, respectively), and estimated scores well up to 3 years post-baseline. Estimation errors for the SF-6D were smaller (OLS model including squared terms: MAE 0.058, RMSE 0.073; OLS model using item scores and demographics: MAE 0.059, RMSE 0.08), and the errors for poorer health states found with the EQ-5D were less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: We have provided algorithms for the estimation of health state utility values, both the EQ-5D and SF-6D, from scores on the MSIS-29, version 2. Further research is now needed to determine how these algorithms perform in practical decision-making contexts, when compared with observed EQ-5D and SF-6D values.

Intraoperator and interoperator repeatability of manual and semi-automated measurement of increased fetal nuchal translucency according to the operator's experience.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the intraoperator and interoperator repeatability of manual and semi-automated measurement of increased nuchal translucency (NT) in sonographers with different levels of experience. METHODS: One hundred NT images without measurements were selected from the digital database. Half had NT measurements between 2.5 and 3.5 mm, and half had NT measurements above 3.5 mm. Five operators (two experts, three general gynaecologist) measured fetal NT manually and automatically. Each operator was blinded to any pre-existing measurements. Each image was measured twice by each operator. Intraoperator repeatability was assessed by standard deviation of within sonographer repeated measurement. Interoperator repeatability was assessed as difference towards the gold standard, which was defined as the mean measurement of experts. RESULTS: The overall standard deviation of the difference between the first and the second manual measurements was 0.14 and 0.10 mm for moderate and severely increased NT. It was 0.10 and 0.08 mm with the semi-automated system. Mean difference between the manual measurement of nonexpert operators and the gold standard was -0.01 mm for moderately increased NT and 0.02 mm for severely increased NT. With the semi-automated measurement, mean bias was similar. CONCLUSION: The automated NT measurement leads to a further standardization of the NT assessment process. Especially inexperienced operators may benefit from this tool.

First trimester screening for trisomy 21 in gestational week 8-10 by ADAM12-S as a maternal serum marker.

BACKGROUND: A disintegrin and metalloprotease 12 (ADAM12-S) has previously been reported to be significantly reduced in maternal serum from women with fetal aneuploidy early in the first trimester and to significantly improve the quality of risk assessment for fetal trisomy 21 in prenatal screening. The aim of this study was to determine whether ADAM12-S is a useful serum marker for fetal trisomy 21 using the mixture model. METHOD: In this case control study ADAM12-S was measured by KRYPTOR ADAM12-S immunoassay in maternal serum from gestational weeks 8 to 11 in 46 samples of fetal trisomy 21 and in 645 controls. Comparison of sensitivity and specificity of first trimester screening for fetal trisomy 21 with or without ADAM12-S included in the risk assessment using the mixture model. RESULTS: The concentration of ADAM12-S increased from week 8 to 11 and was negatively correlated with maternal weight. Log MoM ADAM12-S was positively correlated with log MoM PAPP-A (r = 0.39, P < 0.001), and with log MoM free beta hCG (r = 0.21, P < 0.001). The median ADAM12-S MoM in cases of fetal trisomy 21 in gestational week 8 was 0.66 increasing to approx. 0.9 MoM in week 9 and 10. The use of ADAM12-S along with biochemical markers from the combined test (PAPP-A, free beta hCG) with or without nuchal translucency measurement did not affect the detection rate or false positive rate of fetal aneuploidy as compared to routine screening using PAPP-A and free ß-hCG with or without nuchal translucency. CONCLUSION: The data show moderately decreased levels of ADAM12-S in cases of fetal aneuploidy in gestational weeks 8-11. However, including ADAM12-S in the routine risk does not improve the performance of first trimester screening for fetal trisomy 21.

Patient-orientated longitudinal study of multiple sclerosis in south west England (The South West Impact of Multiple Sclerosis Project, SWIMS) 1: protocol and baseline characteristics of cohort.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for greater understanding of the impact of multiple sclerosis (MS) from the perspective of individuals with the condition. The South West Impact of MS Project (SWIMS) has been designed to improve understanding of disease impact using a patient-centred approach. The purpose is to (1) develop improved measurement instruments for clinical trials, (2) evaluate longitudinal performance of a variety of patient-reported outcome measures, (3) develop prognostic predictors for use in individualising drug treatment for patients, particularly early on in the disease course. METHODS: This is a patient-centred, prospective, longitudinal study of multiple sclerosis and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) in south west England. The study area comprises two counties with a population of approximately 1.7 million and an estimated 1,800 cases of MS. Self-completion questionnaires are administered to participants every six months (for people with MS) or 12 months (CIS). Here we present descriptive statistics of the baseline data provided by 967 participants with MS. RESULTS: Seventy-five percent of those approached consented to participate. The male:female ratio was 1.00:3.01 (n = 967). Average (standard deviation) age at time of entry to SWIMS was 51.6 (11.5) years (n = 961) and median (interquartile range) time since first symptom was 13.3 (6.8 to 24.5) years (n = 934). Fatigue was the most commonly reported symptom, with 80% of participants experiencing fatigue at baseline. Although medication use for symptom control was common, there was little evidence of effectiveness, particularly for fatigue. Nineteen percent of participants were unable to classify their subtype of MS. When patient-reported subtype was compared to neurologist assessment for a sample of participants (n = 396), agreement in disease sub-type was achieved in 63% of cases. There were 836 relapses, reported by 931 participants, in the twelve months prior to baseline. Twenty-three percent of the relapsing-remitting group and 12% of the total sample were receiving disease-modifying therapy at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Demographics of this sample were similar to published data for the UK. Overall, the results broadly reflect clinical experience in confirming high symptom prevalence, with relatively little complete symptom relief. Participants often had difficulty in defining MS relapses and their own MS type.

The epidemiology of motor neurone disease in two counties in the southwest of England.

The epidemiology of motor neurone disease (MND) in the counties of Devon and Cornwall in the southwest of England has not previously been studied. A previous study of England and Wales has, however, reported a very high death certification rate of MND in Devon. This study was carried out to establish the prevalence and incidence of MND in Devon and Cornwall and make comparisons with published rates in other populations. We attempted to identify all cases of MND diagnosed in Devon and Cornwall between 2002 and 2007. Case identification was centred on the major hospitals in the two counties and multiple sources of ascertainment were used. All identified cases had their case notes reviewed to establish the diagnosis and classify by type of MND. Point prevalence of MND was established for September 1st, 2007. The overall incidence rate standardised to the 2001 United Kingdom population was 2.52 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval 2.20-2.84). The incidence rate was significantly higher in males (P < 0.001). The estimated male to female incidence ratio was 2.10 (95% CI 1.61-2.73). The crude incidence rate in Cornwall was 3.78 per 100,000 (95% CI 3.03-4.53) and this was significantly higher (P = 0.011) than the rate in Devon, which was 2.61 per 100,000 (95% CI 2.19-3.04). The standardised incidence rate for the study period in Devon was 2.26 per 100,000 (95% CI 1.91-2.60) and in Cornwall it was 3.06 per 100,000 (95% CI 2.44-3.68). The overall standardised point prevalence rate was 5.66 per 100,000 (95% CI 4.49-6.83). The incidence rate of MND in our study is similar to reported findings in large prospective studies of the disease. There is a significant difference between the incidence rates in Devon and Cornwall. There is a need to establish a prospective MND Register to accurately document the epidemiological characteristics of the disease in the two counties.

Screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 by maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency, fetal heart rate, free beta-hCG and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A.

BACKGROUND: A beneficial consequence of screening for trisomy 21 is the early diagnosis of trisomies 18 and 13. Our objective was to examine the performance of first-trimester screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 by maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness, fetal heart rate (FHR) and maternal serum-free beta-hCG and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A). METHODS: Prospective screening for trisomy 21 by maternal age, fetal NT, free beta-hCG and PAPP-A at 11(+0)-13(+6) weeks in singleton pregnancies, including 56 376 normal cases, 395 with trisomy 21, 122 with trisomy 18 and 61 with trisomy 13. Risk algorithms were developed for the calculation of patient-specific risks for each of the three trisomies based on maternal age, NT, FHR, free beta-hCG and PAPP-A. Detection (DR) and false positive rates (FPR) were calculated and adjusted according to the maternal age distribution of pregnancies in England and Wales in 2000-2002. RESULTS: The DR and FPR were 90% and 3%, respectively, for trisomy 21, 91% and 0.2% for trisomy 18 and 87% and 0.2% for trisomy 13. When screen positivity was defined by an FPR of 3% on the risk for trisomy 21 in conjunction with an FPR of 0.2% on the maximum of the risks for trisomies 13 and 18, the overall FPR was 3.1% and the DRs of trisomies 21, 18 and 13 were 91%, 97% and 94%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: As a side effect of first-trimester screening for trisomy 21, approximately 95% of trisomy 13 and 18 fetuses can be detected with an 0.1% increase in the FPR.

First trimester screening for Down syndrome using free beta hCG, total hCG and PAPP-A: an exploratory study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential utility of first trimester screening for Down syndrome using Free beta-hCG, total hCG and PAPP-A. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using estimates from the literature, a simulation study was undertaken to estimate the performance of tests incorporating, Free beta-hCG, total hCG and PAPP-A at gestations of 8-12 weeks. We used sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of departures from the assumed model. RESULTS: We estimate that detection rates in excess of 75% for a false positive rate (FPR) of 3% can be achieved with first trimester measures of PAPP-A, total hCG and Free beta-hCG at 8 weeks-the addition of total hCG adding 11%. Detection rates of around 90% for a FPR of 3% can be achieved through the inclusion of nuchal translucency (NT) at 12 weeks to these early first trimester biochemical markers. Our analysis indicates that the marginal benefit of adding total hCG diminishes rapidly with gestational age and that there is little benefit from adding total hCG later than 10 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSION: The performance of first trimester screening using early combinations of total hCG, Free beta-hCG and PAPP-A should be assessed in further studies.

The impact of bias in MoM values on patient risk and screening performance for Down syndrome.

UNLABELLED: First and second trimester screening protocols for Down syndrome rely on marker values being referred to smoothed median values to produce adjusted multiple of the median (MoM) values to standardise for factors such as assay, gestation, maternal weight, smoking status, and so on. Changes in assay components, such as reagent lot, and inappropriate use of published regression equations for smoothed medians have resulted in biases in reported MoM values that in many applications remain uncorrected. This paper investigates the impact of these biases on patient-specific risk estimates and screening performance, and concludes that a 10% bias for an individual marker can result in an increase of between 1 and 2% in the false positive rate of the programme. A simple formula is also derived that enables the impact of these biases to be determined without the need for simulation, thus making it easier to design effective statistical quality control procedures to monitor the output of screening software algorithms. OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of bias in MoM values on detection rates, false positive rates and patient-specific risks for Down syndrome. METHODS: We show that bias in MoM values affects risk through a multiplicative factor, and present an approximation to estimate this factor. We then show how bias in MoM values changes the effective risk threshold in the screening test, and hence the test's performance characteristics are determined by reference to a different point on the ROC curve for that test. Our approximation is based on the assumption of equal variance covariance structure for the unaffected and T21 log MoM values. We demonstrate, using computer simulation and supportive theoretical results, that the approximation is reliable in situations encountered in practice. Applications of the approximation are also discussed in respect of establishing effective quality control rules for median MoMs. RESULTS: Substantial changes in patient risk estimates and overall screening performance can result from the sort of biases in marker MoM values encountered in routine practice. In particular, biases of 10% in individual median marker MoM values can produce a four-fold range of risks when using the triple test. A 10% bias in a single marker will change the false positive rates by up to 2%. The effects on the false positive rate are approximately additive and, in cases where all markers are biased towards Down syndrome, biases in all three markers for the triple test can more than double the false positive rate. CONCLUSIONS: Biases in marker MoM values can occur in many ways, inappropriate median values, kit lot change, drift in assay performance and operator effects. We present methods which allow the impact of these changes to be assessed in relation to patient-specific risks and the overall screening performance. This, in turn, will enable appropriate quality control procedures to be established to control the magnitude of reported marker MoM biases, or equivalently, the magnitude of biases associated with the calculation of patient-specific risks.

Reproducibility of risk figures in 2nd-trimester maternal serum screening for down syndrome: comparison of 2 laboratories.

BACKGROUND: Analytical error affects 2nd-trimester maternal serum screening for Down syndrome risk estimation. We analyzed the between-laboratory reproducibility of risk estimates from 2 laboratories. METHODS: Laboratory 1 used Bayer ACS180 immunoassays for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), Diagnostic Systems Laboratories (DSL) RIA for unconjugated estriol (uE3), and DSL enzyme immunoassay for inhibin-A (INH-A). Laboratory 2 used Beckman immunoassays for AFP, hCG, and uE3, and DSL enzyme immunoassay for INH-A. Analyte medians were separately established for each laboratory. We used the same computational algorithm for all risk calculations, and we used Monte Carlo methods for computer modeling. RESULTS: For 462 samples tested, risk figures from the 2 laboratories differed >2-fold for 44.7%, >5-fold for 7.1%, and >10-fold for 1.7%. Between-laboratory differences in analytes were greatest for uE3 and INH-A. The screen-positive rates were 9.3% for laboratory 1 and 11.5% for laboratory 2, with a significant difference in the patients identified as screen-positive vs screen-negative (McNemar test, P<0.001). Computer modeling confirmed the large between-laboratory risk differences. CONCLUSION: Differences in performance of assays and laboratory procedures can have a large effect on patient-specific risks. Screening laboratories should minimize test imprecision and ensure that each assay performs in a manner similar to that assumed in the risk computational algorithm.