Median survival following geriatric hip fracture among 17,868 males from the Veterans Health Administration.

Background: The expected value of treatments for geriatric femoral neck fracture is influenced by the predicted duration of survival after injury. Specifically, total hip arthroplasty is more suited for patients likely to live long enough to reap its longer-term benefits. For predicting short- and medium-term survival, there are many tools available, but for longer-term survival prognosis the current literature is insufficient. Our hypothesis is that patient age at the time of injury correlates with median life expectancy and survival rates, and these values can anchor a prediction regarding a given patient's life expectancy. We therefore sought to determine median and fractional survival rates at 30 days, and 1, 2, 5 and 10 years after surgery for a large cohort of elderly patients with hip fracture as a function of age. Methods: 17,868 male patients, 65-89 years of age, treated surgically for hip fracture within the Veterans Affairs system were assessed. From this set, 10,000 patients were randomly selected, and their ages at surgery and death (if any) were recorded at least 10 years post-operatively. Median and fractional survival rates were recorded at 1 month and 1, 2, 5, and 10 years. The mathematical relationship between age and median survival was determined. All findings from the 10,000-patient cohort were compared to corresponding values of the remaining 7,868 patients, to assess the predictive power of the initial observations. Results: The median survival rate for the entire cohort was 2.2 years, with 90.4% of the group surviving at 30 days. The percentage of the cohort surviving at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years after treatment was 64.5%, 52.3%, 27.1% and 8.9% respectively. Median survival was approximately (13 - (0.13 × age-at-time-of-surgery) years for patients of all ages. Conclusions: Median survival after geriatric hip fracture can be accurately predicted by the patient's age at the time of injury. Median survival and fractional survival at key milestones can help estimate life-expectancy and thereby help guide treatment.

Predicting life expectancy after geriatric hip fracture: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Displaced femoral neck fractures in geriatric patients are typically treated with either hemiarthroplasty or total hip arthroplasty. The choice between hemiarthroplasty and total hip arthroplasty requires a good estimate of the patient's life expectancy, as the recent HEALTH trial suggests that the benefits of the two operations do not diverge, if at all, until the second year post-operatively. A systematic review was this performed to determine if there sufficient information in the medical literature to estimate a patient's life expectancy beyond two years and to identify those patient variables affecting survival of that duration. METHODS: Pubmed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were queried for articles reporting survival data for at least two years post-operatively for at least 100 patients, age 65 or greater, treated surgically for an isolated hip fracture. A final set of 43 papers was created. The methods section of all selected papers was then reviewed to determine which variables were collected in the studies and the results section was reviewed to note whether an effect was reported for all collected variables. RESULTS: There were 43 eligible studies with 25 unique variables identified. Only age, gender, comorbidities, the presence of dementia and fracture type were collected in a majority of studies, and within that, only age and gender were reported in a majority of the results. Most (15/ 25) variables were reported in 5 or fewer of the studies. DISCUSSION: There are important deficiencies in the literature precluding the evidence-based estimation of 2 year life expectancy. Because the ostensible advantages of total hip arthroplasty are reaped only by those who survive two years or more, there is a need for additional data collection, analysis and reporting regarding survival after geriatric hip fracture.

Deep learning for differentiation of benign and malignant solid liver lesions on ultrasonography.

PURPOSE: The ability to reliably distinguish benign from malignant solid liver lesions on ultrasonography can increase access, decrease costs, and help to better triage patients for biopsy. In this study, we used deep learning to differentiate benign from malignant focal solid liver lesions based on their ultrasound appearance. METHODS: Among the 596 patients who met the inclusion criteria, there were 911 images of individual liver lesions, of which 535 were malignant and 376 were benign. Our training set contained 660 lesions augmented dynamically during training for a total of 330,000 images; our test set contained 79 images. A neural network with ResNet50 architecture was fine-tuned using pre-trained weights on ImageNet. Non-cystic liver lesions with definite diagnosis by histopathology or MRI were included. Accuracy of the final model was compared with expert interpretation. Two separate datasets were used in training and evaluation, one with all lesions and one with lesions deemed to be of uncertain diagnosis based on the Code Abdomen rating system. RESULTS: Our model trained on the complete set of all lesions achieved a test accuracy of 0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.90) compared to expert 1 with a test accuracy of 0.80 (95% CI 0.70-0.87) and expert 2 with a test accuracy of 0.73 (95% CI 0.63-0.82). Our model trained on the uncertain set of lesions achieved a test accuracy of 0.79 (95% CI 0.69-0.87) compared to expert 1 with a test accuracy of 0.70 (95% CI 0.59-0.78) and expert 2 with a test accuracy of 0.66 (95% CI 0.55-0.75). On the uncertain dataset, compared to all experts averaged, the model had higher test accuracy (0.79 vs. 0.68, p = 0.025). CONCLUSION: Deep learning algorithms proposed in the current study improve differentiation of benign from malignant ultrasound-captured solid liver lesions and perform comparably to expert radiologists. Deep learning tools can potentially be used to improve the accuracy and efficiency of clinical workflows.

Deep Learning Based on MR Imaging for Predicting Outcome of Uterine Fibroid Embolization.

PURPOSE: To develop and validate a deep learning model based on routine magnetic resonance (MR) imaging obtained before uterine fibroid embolization to predict procedure outcome. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical data were collected on patients treated with uterine fibroid embolization at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania from 2007 to 2018. Fibroids for each patient were manually segmented by an abdominal radiologist on a T1-weighted contrast-enhanced (T1C) sequence and a T2-weighted sequence of MR imaging obtained before and after embolization. A residual convolutional neural network (ResNet) model to predict clinical outcome was trained using MR imaging obtained before the procedure. RESULTS: Inclusion criteria were met by 727 fibroids in 409 patients. At clinical follow-up, 85.6% (n = 350) of 409 patients (590 of 727 fibroids; 81.1%) experienced symptom resolution or improvement, and 14.4% (n = 59) of 409 patients (137 of 727 fibroids; 18.9%) had no improvement or worsening symptoms. The T1C trained model achieved a test accuracy of 0.847 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.745-0.914), sensitivity of 0.932 (95% CI, 0.833-0.978), and specificity of 0.462 (95% CI, 0.232-0.709). In comparison, the average of 4 radiologists achieved a test accuracy of 0.722 (95% CI, 0.609-0.813), sensitivity of 0.852 (95% CI, 0.737-0.923), and specificity of 0.135 (95% CI, 0.021-0.415). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that deep learning based on a ResNet model achieves good accuracy in predicting outcome of uterine fibroid embolization. If further validated, the model may help clinicians better identify patients who can most benefit from this therapy and aid clinical decision making.

Deep Learning Based on MRI for Differentiation of Low- and High-Grade in Low-Stage Renal Cell Carcinoma.

Pretreatment determination of renal cell carcinoma aggressiveness may help to guide clinical decision-making. PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of residual convolutional neural network using routine MRI in differentiating low-grade (grade I-II) from high-grade (grade III-IV) in stage I and II renal cell carcinoma. STUDY TYPE: Retrospective. POPULATION: In all, 376 patients with 430 renal cell carcinoma lesions from 2008-2019 in a multicenter cohort were acquired. The 353 Fuhrman-graded renal cell carcinomas were divided into a training, validation, and test set with a 7:2:1 split. The 77 WHO/ISUP graded renal cell carcinomas were used as a separate WHO/ISUP test set. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 1.5T and 3.0T/T2 -weighted and T1 contrast-enhanced sequences. ASSESSMENT: The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the final model were assessed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and precision-recall curve were plotted to measure the performance of the binary classifier. A confusion matrix was drawn to show the true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative of the model. STATISTICAL TESTS: Mann-Whitney U-test for continuous data and the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test for categorical data were used to compare the difference of clinicopathologic characteristics between the low- and high-grade groups. The adjusted Wald method was used to calculate the 95% confidence interval (CI) of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. RESULTS: The final deep-learning model achieved a test accuracy of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.73-0.96), sensitivity of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.74-0.96), and specificity of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.73-0.96) in the Fuhrman test set and a test accuracy of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73-0.90), sensitivity of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.84-0.97), and specificity of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.68-0.86) in the WHO/ISUP test set. DATA CONCLUSION: Deep learning can noninvasively predict the histological grade of stage I and II renal cell carcinoma using conventional MRI in a multiinstitutional dataset with high accuracy. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 2.

Deep Learning to Distinguish Benign from Malignant Renal Lesions Based on Routine MR Imaging.

PURPOSE: With increasing incidence of renal mass, it is important to make a pretreatment differentiation between benign renal mass and malignant tumor. We aimed to develop a deep learning model that distinguishes benign renal tumors from renal cell carcinoma (RCC) by applying a residual convolutional neural network (ResNet) on routine MR imaging. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Preoperative MR images (T2-weighted and T1-postcontrast sequences) of 1,162 renal lesions definitely diagnosed on pathology or imaging in a multicenter cohort were divided into training, validation, and test sets (70:20:10 split). An ensemble model based on ResNet was built combining clinical variables and T1C and T2WI MR images using a bagging classifier to predict renal tumor pathology. Final model performance was compared with expert interpretation and the most optimized radiomics model. RESULTS: Among the 1,162 renal lesions, 655 were malignant and 507 were benign. Compared with a baseline zero rule algorithm, the ensemble deep learning model had a statistically significant higher test accuracy (0.70 vs. 0.56, P = 0.004). Compared with all experts averaged, the ensemble deep learning model had higher test accuracy (0.70 vs. 0.60, P = 0.053), sensitivity (0.92 vs. 0.80, P = 0.017), and specificity (0.41 vs. 0.35, P = 0.450). Compared with the radiomics model, the ensemble deep learning model had higher test accuracy (0.70 vs. 0.62, P = 0.081), sensitivity (0.92 vs. 0.79, P = 0.012), and specificity (0.41 vs. 0.39, P = 0.770). CONCLUSIONS: Deep learning can noninvasively distinguish benign renal tumors from RCC using conventional MR imaging in a multi-institutional dataset with good accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity comparable with experts and radiomics.