ABSTRACT
As one of the extreme climatic events, the frequency and intensity of drought have great impacts on regional water resource. Water is a main limiting factor for plant growth in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, it is of great scientific significance to explore the spatiotemporal variations and future tendency of drought for the ecological environment in the Loess Plateau. Based on grid data of monthly precipitation and temperature from 1986 to 2019, we calculated standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and drought frequency. The spatiotemporal patterns and its variations were analyzed at the seasonal and annual scales in the Loess Plateau using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimation method. Finally, the future trend of drought was analyzed in the Loess Plateau by the NAR neural network combined with Hurst index. Results showed that the trend of aridification became more significant in the Loess Plateau, and that the frequency of droughts events exhibited great spatial variations at the interannual and seasonal scales during the study period. Specifically, the highest frequency of drought in the interannual, spring and winter was found in the southeast and west of the Loess Plateau, whereas the frequency of drought in summer and autumn was higher in the northwest. The frequency of moderate drought was the highest in summer compared with other seasons while the frequency of slight drought was the highest in interannual and other seasons. The Loess Plateau showed a trend of aridification in spring and summer, but this trend in autumn and winter became weaker in most areas of the study area. The SPEI value in the interannual, spring, and summer exhibited a decline trend in a future period in the Loess Plateau. The aridification would be enhanced. The Hurst index value was the largest and the persis-tence of its change remained stronger in summer. The possibility of continuous drought in summer would be higher than that in other seasons in the future.
Subject(s)
Droughts , Ecosystem , China , Climate Change , Desert Climate , Seasons , Water ResourcesABSTRACT
Yellow River Basin is an important water conservation and ecological barrier area, the study of water supply service in which is of great significance to the high-quality development and ecological environment protection. Based on the Invest InVEST model and the method of scenario analysis, we analyzed the temporal and spatial patterns of water yield in the Yellow River Basin in recent 20 years (1995-2015) with land use and cover, meteorological and soil data as inputs. We examined the impacts of precipitation change and land use change on water yield and their impacts on water yield. The results showed that water yield depth had average growth of 24.34 mm from 1995 to 2015. The high water yield area located in the west and southwest, and the low water yield area located in the northwest. The change of deep spatial pattern was not evident. Among the three grade basins in the Yellow River Basin, the river basin above Longyangxia, with the highest water yield of about 11.7 billion m3·a-1, was the main water yield area of the Yellow River Basin. The river basin from Lanzhou to Hekou had the lowest water yield, with a value of 44 million m3·a-1. The average water yield depth of permanent glacier and snow land was the largest in the whole basin. Grassland was the main contributor to the total water yield of the whole basin, providing 62.6% of the total water yield. Land use/cover change had moderate effect on water yield.
