Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014-2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030.

According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan's central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan.

Lessons for Local Policy Initiatives to Address Dietary Supplement Use Among Adolescents: A Qualitative Study of Stakeholders' Perceptions.

PURPOSE: Weight-loss and muscle-building dietary supplements can have adverse health consequences for youth. At a time, when the Food and Drug Administration is considering increasing oversight of dietary supplements, this study aimed to explore community stakeholders' perceptions about the use of and access to such supplements among adolescents and to identify challenges and opportunities to engage stakeholders with policy initiatives to curtail youth access to supplements at the local level. METHOD: We conducted 32 key informant semistructured interviews in four municipalities in Massachusetts with purposefully selected participants representing three categories of community stakeholders who could contribute to policy agenda setting at the local level: policy professionals, youth service providers, and young adults aged 18-25 years who used weight-loss or muscle-building supplements as minors. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, deidentified, and analyzed using thematic analysis approach, facilitated by Dedoose software. RESULTS: Community stakeholders reported wide availability and easy access to dietary supplements. Most participants were unaware of health risks. Many stakeholders did not perceive the use of these products as an issue impacting youth in their communities. The challenges identified in engaging stakeholders were competing concerns on the policy agenda, limited capacity of stakeholders, and uncertainty about who is accountable for the problem. CONCLUSION: This study indicates the need for complementary, multipronged approaches at the municipal level to address the problem of weak regulation and easy access to potentially dangerous weight-loss and muscle-building supplements for youth.