Development and Comparison of Time Series Models in Predicting Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Cases - Hubei Province, China, 2013-2020.

Introduction: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease caused by the SFTS virus, which has a high mortality rate. Predicting the number of SFTS cases is essential for early outbreak warning and can offer valuable insights for establishing prevention and control measures. Methods: In this study, data on monthly SFTS cases in Hubei Province, China, from 2013 to 2020 were collected. Various time series models based on seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), Prophet, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and long short-term memory (LSTM) were developed using these historical data to predict SFTS cases. The established models were evaluated and compared using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). Results: Four models were developed and performed well in predicting the trend of SFTS cases. The XGBoost model outperformed the others, yielding the closest fit to the actual case numbers and exhibiting the smallest MAE (2.54) and RMSE (2.89) in capturing the seasonal trend and predicting the monthly number of SFTS cases in Hubei Province. Conclusion: The developed XGBoost model represents a promising and valuable tool for SFTS prediction and early warning in Hubei Province, China.

Potential novel Colpodella spp. (phylum Apicomplexa) and high prevalence of Colpodella spp. in goat-attached Haemaphysalis longicornis ticks in Shandong province, China.

Tick-borne Apicomplexan parasites pose a significant threat to both public health and animal husbandry. Identifying potential pathogenic parasites and gathering their epidemiological data are essential for prospectively preventing and controlling infections. In the present study, genomic DNA of ticks collected from two goat flocks (Goatflock1 and Goatflock2) and one dog group (Doggroup) were extracted and the 18S rRNA gene of Babesia/Theileria/Colpodella spp. was amplified by PCR and sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis was conducted based on the obtained sequences. The differences in pathogen positive rates between ticks of different groups were statistically analyzed using the Chi-square or continuity-adjusted Chi-square test. As a result, two pathogenic Theileria (T.) luwenshuni genotypes, one novel pathogenic Colpodella sp. HLJ genotype, and two potential novel Colpodella spp. (referred to as Colpodella sp. struthionis and Colpodella sp. yiyuansis in this study) were identified in the Haemaphysalis (H.) longicornis ticks. Ticks of Goatflock2 had a significantly higher positive rate of Colpodella spp. than those from Goatflock1 (χ2=92.10; P = 8.2 × 10-22) and Doggroup (χ2=42.34; P = 7.7 × 10-11), and a significantly higher positive rate of T. luwenshuni than Doggroup (χ2=5.38; P = 0.02). However, the positive rates of T. luwenshuni between Goatflock1 and Goatflock2 were not significantly different (χ2=2.02; P = 0.16), and so as the positive rates of both pathogens between Goatflock1 and Doggroup groups (P > 0.05). For either Colpodella spp. or T. luwenshuni, no significant difference was found in prevalence between male and female ticks. These findings underscore the potential importance of Colpodella spp. in domestic animal-attached ticks, as our study revealed two novel Colpodella spp. and identified Colpodella spp. in H. longicornis for the first time. The study also sheds light on goats' potential roles in the transmission of Colpodella spp. to ticks and provides crucial epidemiological data of pathogenic Theileria and Colpodella. These data may help physicians, veterinarians, and public health officers prepare suitable detection and treatment methods and develop prevention and control strategies.

Reassortant H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus Bearing PB2 Gene From a 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Exhibits Increased Pathogenicity in Mice.

Reassortment is a key driving force of the evolution and host adaptation of the influenza virus. A(H1N1)pdm2009 (pdm09), a novel H1N1 influenza viral subtype, caused a pandemic in 2009. The strain was established in pig herds and cocirculated with the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus. The coexistence of pdm09 with H5N1 raises concerns that reassortment may cause the development of novel viral strains with unpredictable virulence. Given that the viral polymerase subunit PB2 is a determinant of host range and pathogenicity, and that the substantial amino acid differences in PB2 between pdm09 and H5N1, including positions 590/591 and 271, which are shown to play key roles in enhanced polymerase activity in mammalian host cells, we generated a reassortant virus containing PB2 derived from a pdm09 (A/Liaoning/1/2009, LN/09) to investigate if pdm09-derived PB2 can function in a heterologous avian virus isolate as an adaptive strategy, with H5N1 (A/duck/Hubei/hangmei01/2006, HM/06) as the backbone. We assessed the biological characteristics, including pathogenicity, replication, and polymerase activity, of the reassortant. Compared with HM/06 and LN/09, H5N1 hybrid virus containing PB2 from LN/09 exhibited significantly increased pathogenicity in mice and proliferation activity in mammalian cell lines, as well as markedly enhanced polymerase activity. Our results indicate that the coexistence of H5N1 and pdm09 may pose a great threat to public health through reassortment. Moreover, our results highlight the importance of monitoring the emergence of H5N1 reassortants containing pdm09-derived PB2.