Development and validation of early prediction models for new-onset functional impairment of patients with trauma at hospital discharge.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of individuals at risk of functional impairment after trauma is crucial for the timely clinical decision-making and intervention to improve reintegration into the society. This study aimed to develop and validate models for predicting new-onset functional impairment after trauma using predictors that are routinely collected within 2 days of hospital admission. METHODS: In this multicenter retrospective cohort study of acute care hospitals in Japan, we identified adult patients with trauma with independence in carrying out activities of daily living before hospitalization, treated in the intensive or high-dependency care unit, and survived for at least 2 days between April 2008 and September 2023. The primary outcome was functional impairment defined as Barthel Index ≤60 at hospital discharge. In the internal validation data set (between April 2008 and August 2022), using the routinely collected 129 candidate predictors within 2 days of admission, we trained and tuned the four conventional and machine learning models with repeated random subsampling cross-validation. We measured the performance of these models in the temporal validation data set (between September 2022 and September 2023). We also computed the importance of each predictor variable in our model. RESULTS: We identified 8,529 eligible patients. Functional impairment at discharge was observed in 41% of the patients (n = 3,506/8,529). In the temporal validation data set, all four models showed moderate discrimination ability, with areas under the curve above 0.79, and extreme gradient boosting showing the best performance (0.83). In the variable importance analyses, age was the most important predictor, followed by consciousness, severity score, cervical spinal cord injury, mild dementia, and serum albumin level at admission. CONCLUSION: We successfully developed early prediction models for patients with trauma with new-onset functional impairment at discharge that achieved high predictive performance using routinely collected data within 2 days of hospital admission. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic/Epidemiological; Level II.

How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Desired longevity represents how strongly people esteem possible extensions of their own lifetime. The association between desired longevity and mortality risk has been reported in only one prospective study, which examined a small sample of older participants. We aimed to examine the hypothesis that desired longevity at middle-age predicted long-term survival. METHODS: In the prospective cohort study, residents aged 40-64 years were asked how long they would like to live and asked to choose one from three options: longer than, as long as, or shorter than the life expectancy. We used Cox proportional hazards model to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to the three groups for desired longevity, treating the "longer than" group as the reference. We conducted mediation analysis to investigate the mechanism for the association between desired longevity and mortality. RESULTS: We recruited 39,902 residents to the study. Risk of all-cause mortality was significantly higher in the "shorter than" group (HR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04-1.21). The association was independent of sex, age, marital status, education, medical history, and health status. Regarding cause of death, mortality risk of cancer (HR 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00-1.29) and suicide (HR 2.15; 95% CI, 1.37-3.38) were also higher in the "shorter than" group. The unhealthy lifestyle mediated this association with all-cause mortality by 30.4%. CONCLUSION: Shorter desired longevity was significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, and mortality from cancer and suicide. Lifestyle behaviors particularly mediated this association.

Optimal target blood pressure in elderly with septic shock (OPTPRESS) trial: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Hemodynamic stabilization is a core component in the resuscitation of septic shock. However, the optimal target blood pressure remains debatable. Previous randomized controlled trials suggested that uniformly adopting a target mean arterial pressure (MAP) higher than 65 mmHg for all adult septic shock patients would not be beneficial; however, it has also been proposed that higher target MAP may be beneficial for elderly patients, especially those with arteriosclerosis. METHODS: A multicenter, pragmatic single-blind randomized controlled trial will be conducted to compare target MAP of 80-85 mmHg (high-target) and 65-70 mmHg (control) in the resuscitation of septic shock patients admitted to 28 hospitals in Japan. Patients with septic shock aged ≥65 years are randomly assigned to the high-target or control groups. The target MAP shall be maintained for 72 h after randomization or until vasopressors are no longer needed to improve patients' condition. To minimize the adverse effects related to catecholamines, if norepinephrine dose of ≥ 0.1 µg/kg/min is needed to maintain the target MAP, vasopressin will be initiated. Other therapeutic approaches, including fluid administration, hydrocortisone use, and antibiotic choice, will be determined by the physician in charge based on the latest clinical guidelines. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality at 90 days after randomization. DISCUSSION: The result of this trial will provide great insight on the resuscitation strategy for septic shock in the era of global aged society. Also, it will provide the better understanding on the importance of individualized treatment strategy in hemodynamic management in critically ill patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN Clinical Trials Registry; UMIN000041775. Registered 13 September 2020.

Effect of age on dexmedetomidine treatment for ventilated patients with sepsis: a post-hoc analysis of the DESIRE trial.

AIM: There are no definitive data to determine whether age influences the effects of dexmedetomidine (DEX) treatment. Thus, we investigated whether older age was associated with more favorable sedative action by DEX in sepsis patients who required mechanical ventilation. METHODS: This study involved a post-hoc analysis of data from the Dexmedetomidine for Sepsis in the ICU Randomized Evaluation (DESIRE) trial. The patients were categorized based on median age into elderly and younger groups. The two groups were then compared during the first 7 days after ventilation based on proportion of patients with well-controlled sedation (Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale score between -3 and +1), days free from delirium (based on the Confusion Assessment Method for ICU), and days free from coma (Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale score between -4 and -5). RESULTS: One hundred and one patients were assigned to the elderly group and 100 patients were assigned to the younger group. In the elderly group, 50 patients received DEX treatment and 51 patients received non-DEX treatment, with the DEX arm having significantly better-controlled sedation (range, 14-52% versus 16-27%; P = 0.01). In the younger group, 50 patients received DEX treatment and 50 patients received non-DEX treatment, with no significant difference in the proportions of well-controlled sedation (range, 20-64% versus 24-60%; P = 0.73). There were no significant differences in the numbers of days free from delirium or coma between the groups. CONCLUSION: In elderly sepsis patients who require ventilation, dexmedetomidine could be more effective than other sedative agents for achieving proper sedation.

Mortality Effects of Prolonged Hemoperfusion Therapy Using a Polymyxin B-Immobilized Fiber Column for Patients with Septic Shock: A Sub-Analysis of the DESIRE Trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The optimal duration of hemoperfusion therapy with a polymyxin B-immobilized fiber column has not yet been verified. METHODS: This analysis examined whether hemoperfusion therapy with a polymyxin B-immobilized fiber column lasting longer than 2 h (prolonged polymyxin) improved outcomes for patients with septic shock compared to 2-h polymyxin therapy (sub-analysis of data from the DESIRE trial). RESULTS: The 2-h and prolonged polymyxin groups contained 22 and 14 patients, respectively. Both groups had similar characteristics. The polymyxin duration per session in the prolonged polymyxin group was significantly longer (median, 5.5 h) than in the 2-h polymyxin group (p < 0.01). The 28-day mortality rate was significantly higher in the 2-h polymyxin group (7, 31.8%) than in the prolonged polymyxin group (0, 0%; p = 0.019). CONCLUSION: Prolonged polymyxin therapy might be associated with better clinical outcomes than 2-h polymyxin therapy in patients with septic shock. Video Journal Club "Cappuccino with Claudio Ronco" at http://www.karger.com/?doi=491744.