Immunogenicity of third dose COVID-19 vaccine strategies in patients who are immunocompromised with suboptimal immunity following two doses (OCTAVE-DUO): an open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The humoral and T-cell responses to booster COVID-19 vaccine types in multidisease immunocompromised individuals who do not generate adequate antibody responses to two COVID-19 vaccine doses, is not fully understood. The OCTAVE DUO trial aimed to determine the value of third vaccinations in a wide range of patients with primary and secondary immunodeficiencies. METHODS: OCTAVE-DUO was a prospective, open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial investigating humoral and T-cell responses in patients who are immunocompromised following a third vaccine dose with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273, and of NVX-CoV2373 for those with lymphoid malignancies. We recruited patients who were immunocompromised from 11 UK hospitals, aged at least 18 years, with previous sub-optimal responses to two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 (1:1:1 for those with lymphoid malignancies), stratified by disease, previous vaccination type, and anti-spike antibody response following two doses. Individuals with lived experience of immune susceptibility were involved in the study design and implementation. The primary outcome was vaccine-specific immunity defined by anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies (Roche Diagnostics UK and Ireland, Burgess Hill, UK) and T-cell responses (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK) before and 21 days after the third vaccine dose analysed by a modified intention-to-treat analysis. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN 15354495, and the EU Clinical Trials Register, EudraCT 2021-003632-87, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Aug 4, 2021 and Mar 31, 2022, 804 participants across nine disease cohorts were randomly assigned to receive BNT162b2 (n=377), mRNA-1273 (n=374), or NVX-CoV2373 (n=53). 356 (45%) of 789 participants were women, 433 (55%) were men, and 659 (85%) of 775 were White. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies measured 21 days after the third vaccine dose were significantly higher than baseline pre-third dose titres in the modified intention-to-treat analysis (median 1384 arbitrary units [AU]/mL [IQR 4·3-7990·0] compared with median 11·5 AU/mL [0·4-63·1]; p<0·001). Of participants who were baseline low responders, 380 (90%) of 423 increased their antibody concentrations to more than 400 AU/mL. Conversely, 166 (54%) of 308 baseline non-responders had no response after the third dose. Detectable T-cell responses following the third vaccine dose were seen in 494 (80%) of 616 participants. There were 24 serious adverse events (BNT612b2 eight [33%] of 24, mRNA-1273 12 [50%], NVX-CoV2373 four [17%]), two (8%) of which were categorised as vaccine-related. There were seven deaths (1%) during the trial, none of which were vaccine-related. INTERPRETATION: A third vaccine dose improved the serological and T-cell response in the majority of patients who are immunocompromised. Individuals with chronic renal disease, lymphoid malignancy, on B-cell targeted therapies, or with no serological response after two vaccine doses are at higher risk of poor response to a third vaccine dose. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Blood Cancer UK.

International Myeloma Working Group immunotherapy committee consensus guidelines and recommendations for optimal use of T-cell-engaging bispecific antibodies in multiple myeloma.

Multiple myeloma remains an incurable disease, despite the development of numerous drug classes and combinations that have contributed to improved overall survival. Immunotherapies directed against cancer cell-surface antigens, such as chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy and T-cell-redirecting bispecific antibodies, have recently received regulatory approvals and shown unprecedented efficacy. However, these immunotherapies have unique mechanisms of action and toxicities that are different to previous treatments for myeloma, so experiences from clinical trials and early access programmes are essential for providing specific recommendations for management of patients, especially as these agents become available across many parts of the world. Here, we provide expert consensus clinical practice guidelines for the use of bispecific antibodies for the treatment of myeloma. The International Myeloma Working Group is also involved in the collection of prospective real-time data of patients treated with such immunotherapies, with the aim of learning continuously and adapting clinical practices to optimise the management of patients receiving immunotherapies.

Co-operation of MCL-1 and BCL-XL anti-apoptotic proteins in stromal protection of MM cells from carfilzomib mediated cytotoxicity.

Introduction: BCL-2 family proteins are important for tumour cell survival and drug resistance in multiple myeloma (MM). Although proteasome inhibitors are effective anti-myeloma drugs, some patients are resistant and almost all eventually relapse. We examined the function of BCL-2 family proteins in stromal-mediated resistance to carfilzomib-induced cytotoxicity in MM cells. Methods: Co-cultures employing HS5 stromal cells were used to model the interaction with stroma. MM cells were exposed to CFZ in a 1-hour pulse method. The expression of BCL-2 family proteins was assessed by flow cytometry and WB. Pro-survival proteins: MCL-1, BCL-2 and BCL-XL were inhibited using S63845, ABT-199 and A-1331852 respectively. Changes in BIM binding partners were examined by immunoprecipitation and WB. Results: CFZ induced dose-dependent cell death of MM cells, primarily mediated by apoptosis. Culture of MM cells on HS-5 stromal cells resulted in reduced cytotoxicity to CFZ in a cell contact-dependent manner, upregulated expression of MCL-1 and increased dependency on BCL-XL. Inhibiting BCL-XL or MCL-1 with BH-3 mimetics abrogated stromal-mediated protection only at high doses, which may not be achievable in vivo. However, combining BH-3 mimetics at sub-therapeutic doses, which alone were without effect, significantly enhanced CFZ-mediated cytotoxicity even in the presence of stroma. Furthermore, MCL-1 inhibition led to enhanced binding between BCL-XL and BIM, while blocking BCL-XL increased MCL-1/BIM complex formation, indicating the cooperative role of these proteins. Conclusion: Stromal interactions alter the dependence on BCL-2 family members, providing a rationale for dual inhibition to abrogate the protective effect of stroma and restore sensitivity to CFZ.

Isatuximab in combination with carfilzomib and dexamethasone in 1q21+ patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma: Long-term outcomes in the Phase 3 IKEMA study.

Gain/amplification of 1q21 (≥3 copies), a chromosomal abnormality frequently observed in multiple myeloma, can negatively affect prognosis, due to its involvement in resistance to anti-myeloma therapy and disease progression. In this updated subgroup analysis of the randomized, Phase 3 IKEMA study (NCT03275285) in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM), we evaluated progression-free survival (PFS) and depth of response with the anti-CD38 antibody isatuximab plus carfilzomib-dexamethasone (Isa-Kd) versus Kd, in 1q21+ patients and related subgroups, at long-term follow-up (44.2 months). Our analysis included patients with 1q21+ (≥3 copies, with/without high-risk chromosomal abnormality [HRCA]), isolated 1q21+ (≥3 copies, without HRCA), gain(1q21) (3 copies, with/without HRCA), and amp(1q21) (≥4 copies, with/without HRCA). PFS benefit was achieved with Isa-Kd versus Kd in patients with 1q21+ (HR 0.58, 95% CI: 0.37-0.92), with isolated 1q21+ (HR 0.49, 95% CI: 0.27-0.92), with gain(1q21), or amp(1q21), consistent with the overall population and prior interim 1q21+ subgroup analyses. Median PFS with Isa-Kd versus Kd was 25.8 versus 16.2 months in 1q21+ patients and 38.2 versus 16.2 months in patients with isolated 1q21+. Clinically meaningful, higher rates of very good partial response or better, complete response or better (≥CR), minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity, and MRD negativity and ≥CR were reached with Isa-Kd versus Kd in patients with 1q21+, isolated 1q21+, gain(1q21), or amp(1q21). In Isa-Kd and Kd, the MRD negativity and ≥CR rate was 29.3% versus 15.4% in 1q21+ patients, 36.2% versus 12.9% in patients with isolated 1q21+, 27.9% versus 13.5% in patients with gain(1q21), and 31.3% versus 20.0% in patients with amp(1q21), respectively. In conclusion, addition of Isa to Kd in triplet combination therapy has shown PFS benefit and deeper responses, compared with Kd, in 1q21+ patients at higher risk of progression, including patients with isolated 1q21+, gain(1q21), and amp(1q21), thus supporting Isa-Kd an effective treatment option for patients with RRMM.

Diagnosis and management of smouldering myeloma: A British Society for Haematology Good Practice Paper.

Multiple myeloma is a bone marrow-based plasma cell tumour that develops from asymptomatic pre-cursor conditions smouldering myeloma and monoclonal gammopathy of uncertain significance and all are characterised by the presence of a monoclonal protein in the blood. Diagnosis and distinction between these conditions is based on blood tests, the bone marrow biopsy and cross sectional imaging. There are various risk stratification models that group patients with smouldering myeloma into risk groups based on risk of progression to symptomatic disease. Management is mainly observational for patients with smouldering myeloma although clinical trials for high-risk disease may be available. Restaging is required if evidence for progression.

Deep Learning Enables Spatial Mapping of the Mosaic Microenvironment of Myeloma Bone Marrow Trephine Biopsies.

Bone marrow trephine biopsy is crucial for the diagnosis of multiple myeloma. However, the complexity of bone marrow cellular, morphologic, and spatial architecture preserved in trephine samples hinders comprehensive evaluation. To dissect the diverse cellular communities and mosaic tissue habitats, we developed a superpixel-inspired deep learning method (MoSaicNet) that adapts to complex tissue architectures and a cell imbalance aware deep learning pipeline (AwareNet) to enable accurate detection and classification of rare cell types in multiplex immunohistochemistry images. MoSaicNet and AwareNet achieved an AUC of >0.98 for tissue and cellular classification on separate test datasets. Application of MoSaicNet and AwareNet enabled investigation of bone heterogeneity and thickness as well as spatial histology analysis of bone marrow trephine samples from monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance (MGUS) and from paired newly diagnosed and posttreatment multiple myeloma. The most significant difference between MGUS and newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) samples was not related to cell density but to spatial heterogeneity, with reduced spatial proximity of BLIMP1+ tumor cells to CD8+ cells in MGUS compared with NDMM samples. Following treatment of patients with multiple myeloma, there was a reduction in the density of BLIMP1+ tumor cells, effector CD8+ T cells, and regulatory T cells, indicative of an altered immune microenvironment. Finally, bone heterogeneity decreased following treatment of patients with multiple myeloma. In summary, deep learning-based spatial mapping of bone marrow trephine biopsies can provide insights into the cellular topography of the myeloma marrow microenvironment and complement aspirate-based techniques. SIGNIFICANCE: Spatial analysis of bone marrow trephine biopsies using histology, deep learning, and tailored algorithms reveals the bone marrow architectural heterogeneity and evolution during myeloma progression and treatment.

Self-supervised deep learning for highly efficient spatial immunophenotyping.

BACKGROUND: Efficient biomarker discovery and clinical translation depend on the fast and accurate analytical output from crucial technologies such as multiplex imaging. However, reliable cell classification often requires extensive annotations. Label-efficient strategies are urgently needed to reveal diverse cell distribution and spatial interactions in large-scale multiplex datasets. METHODS: This study proposed Self-supervised Learning for Antigen Detection (SANDI) for accurate cell phenotyping while mitigating the annotation burden. The model first learns intrinsic pairwise similarities in unlabelled cell images, followed by a classification step to map learnt features to cell labels using a small set of annotated references. We acquired four multiplex immunohistochemistry datasets and one imaging mass cytometry dataset, comprising 2825 to 15,258 single-cell images to train and test the model. FINDINGS: With 1% annotations (18-114 cells), SANDI achieved weighted F1-scores ranging from 0.82 to 0.98 across the five datasets, which was comparable to the fully supervised classifier trained on 1828-11,459 annotated cells (-0.002 to -0.053 of averaged weighted F1-score, Wilcoxon rank-sum test, P = 0.31). Leveraging the immune checkpoint markers stained in ovarian cancer slides, SANDI-based cell identification reveals spatial expulsion between PD1-expressing T helper cells and T regulatory cells, suggesting an interplay between PD1 expression and T regulatory cell-mediated immunosuppression. INTERPRETATION: By striking a fine balance between minimal expert guidance and the power of deep learning to learn similarity within abundant data, SANDI presents new opportunities for efficient, large-scale learning for histology multiplex imaging data. FUNDING: This study was funded by the Royal Marsden/ICR National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre.

The views and experiences of people with myeloma referred for autologous stem cell transplantation, who declined to participate in a physiotherapist-led exercise trial: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Recruitment rates to rehabilitation trials are variable among cancer survivors, and deeper investigation into the causes for declining participation is needed. The aim of this study was to qualitatively explore the experiences of people with myeloma referred for autologous stem cell transplant who were approached to take part in a physiotherapist-led exercise trial but declined. METHODS: Participants were asked to participate in this qualitative study after declining to participate in a trial conducted at a UK tertiary cancer center. Semi-structured interviews were conducted. Data was analyzed inductively using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Interviews from 18 myeloma patients (56% male, mean age 62 years) were analyzed. Four themes were identified: 1) Traveling to the specialist center is challenging, not just logistically; 2) Individualized approach valued but recall of research information variable; 3) Being less active has profound impact yet ameliorative support is lacking; and 4) Common side-effects of treatment are expected and endured but personal impact underestimated and unaddressed. CONCLUSION: A number of barriers to participation were identified. Travel, a commonly cited reason for declining research participation, is more than a logistical issue for cancer survivors experiencing side-effects and the time burden of clinical appointments. Expectation or knowledge of the typical side-effects from myeloma and its treatment may lead to under-reporting of concerns to care providers, despite their impact upon daily activities and quality of life. Approaches used for research recruitment should consider the timing and consequences of ongoing cancer treatment to reduce potential barriers to participation.

Presenting Symptoms in Newly Diagnosed Myeloma, Relation to Organ Damage, and Implications for Symptom-Directed Screening: A Secondary Analysis from the Tackling Early Morbidity and Mortality in Myeloma (TEAMM) Trial.

Multiple myeloma (MM) patients risk diagnostic delays and irreversible organ damage. In those with newly diagnosed myeloma, we explored the presenting symptoms to identify early signals of MM and their relationships to organ damage. The symptoms were recorded in patients' own words at diagnosis and included diagnostic time intervals. Those seen by a haematologist >6 months prior to MM diagnosis were classified as precursor disease (PD). Most (962/977) patients provided data. Back pain (38%), other pain (31%) and systemic symptoms (28%) predominated. Patients rarely complain of 'bone pain', simply 'pain'. Vertebral fractures are under-recognised as pathological and are the predominant irreversible organ damage (27% of patients), impacting the performance status (PS) and associated with back pain (odds ratio (OR) 6.14 [CI 4.47-8.44]), bone disease (OR 3.71 [CI 1.88-7.32]) and age >65 years (OR 1.58 [CI 1.15-2.17]). Renal failure is less frequent and associated with gastrointestinal symptoms (OR 2.23 [CI1.28-3.91]), age >65 years (OR 2.14 [CI1.28-3.91]) and absence of back pain (OR 0.44 [CI 0.29-0.67]). Patients with known PD (n = 149) had fewer vertebral fractures (p = 0.001), fewer adverse features (p = 0.001), less decline in PS (p = 0.001) and a lower stage (p = 0.04) than 813 with de novo MM. Our data suggest subgroups suitable for trials of 'symptom-directed' screening: those with back pain, unexplained pain, a general decline in health or low-impact vertebral compression fractures.

Impact of timing of stem cell return following high dose melphalan in multiple myeloma patients with renal impairment: a single center experience.

High dose melphalan (HDM) followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) remains the standard consolidation in transplant eligible multiple myeloma (MM) patients. The timing between HDM administration and hematopoietic stem cell return (HSCR) varies among institutions, with a 'rest period' of 48 hours (h) employed by some for patients with renal impairment (RI). We investigated the differences in hematopoietic recovery and HDM toxicity between MM patients with RI who had HSCR after 24 vs 48 h from HDM. Fifty MM patients with RI (48 h group; n = 31 and 24 h group; n = 19) were included. No statistically significant differences were noted in surrogates for hematopoietic recovery and HDM toxicity between both groups. Only one death occurred in the 24 h group. No patients required renal replacement therapy. Therefore, a 24 h period between HDM and AHSC infusion appears safe for MM patients with RI.

Cilta-cel or Standard Care in Lenalidomide-Refractory Multiple Myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Ciltacabtagene autoleucel (cilta-cel), a B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA)-directed CAR T-cell therapy, is effective in heavily pretreated patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. We investigated cilta-cel in earlier treatment lines in patients with lenalidomide-refractory disease. METHODS: In this phase 3, randomized, open-label trial, we assigned patients with lenalidomide-refractory multiple myeloma to receive cilta-cel or the physician's choice of effective standard care. All the patients had received one to three previous lines of treatment. The primary outcome was progression-free survival. RESULTS: A total of 419 patients underwent randomization (208 to receive cilta-cel and 211 to receive standard care). At a median follow-up of 15.9 months (range, 0.1 to 27.3), the median progression-free survival was not reached in the cilta-cel group and was 11.8 months in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18 to 0.38; P<0.001). Progression-free survival at 12 months was 75.9% (95% CI, 69.4 to 81.1) in the cilta-cel group and 48.6% (95% CI, 41.5 to 55.3) in the standard-care group. More patients in the cilta-cel group than in the standard-care group had an overall response (84.6% vs. 67.3%), a complete response or better (73.1% vs. 21.8%), and an absence of minimal residual disease (60.6% vs. 15.6%). Death from any cause was reported in 39 patients and 46 patients, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.5 to 1.2). Most patients reported grade 3 or 4 adverse events during treatment. Among the 176 patients who received cilta-cel in the as-treated population, 134 (76.1%) had cytokine release syndrome (grade 3 or 4, 1.1%; no grade 5), 8 (4.5%) had immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome (all grade 1 or 2), 1 had movement and neurocognitive symptoms (grade 1), 16 (9.1%) had cranial nerve palsy (grade 2, 8.0%; grade 3, 1.1%), and 5 (2.8%) had CAR-T-related peripheral neuropathy (grade 1 or 2, 2.3%; grade 3, 0.6%). CONCLUSIONS: A single cilta-cel infusion resulted in a lower risk of disease progression or death than standard care in lenalidomide-refractory patients with multiple myeloma who had received one to three previous therapies. (Funded by Janssen and Legend Biotech; CARTITUDE-4 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04181827.).

Prevention and management of adverse events during treatment with bispecific antibodies and CAR T cells in multiple myeloma: a consensus report of the European Myeloma Network.

T-cell redirecting bispecific antibodies (BsAbs) and chimeric antigen receptor T cells (CAR T cells) have revolutionised multiple myeloma therapy, but adverse events such as cytokine release syndrome, immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS), cytopenias, hypogammaglobulinaemia, and infections are common. This Policy Review presents a consensus from the European Myeloma Network on the prevention and management of these adverse events. Recommended measures include premedication, frequent assessing for symptoms and severity of cytokine release syndrome, step-up dosing for several BsAbs and some CAR T-cell therapies; corticosteroids; and tocilizumab in the case of cytokine release syndrome. Other anti-IL-6 drugs, high-dose corticosteroids, and anakinra might be considered in refractory cases. ICANS often arises concomitantly with cytokine release syndrome. Glucocorticosteroids in increasing doses are recommended if needed, as well as anakinra if the response is inadequate, and anticonvulsants if convulsions occur. Preventive measures against infections include antiviral and antibacterial drugs and administration of immunoglobulins. Treatment of infections and other complications is also addressed.

Isatuximab, carfilzomib, and dexamethasone in patients with relapsed multiple myeloma: updated results from IKEMA, a randomized Phase 3 study.

Longer-term outcomes with the anti-CD38 antibody isatuximab in combination with carfilzomib-dexamethasone (Isa-Kd) were evaluated in the randomized Phase 3 trial IKEMA (NCT03275285), in a prespecified, follow-up analysis of progression-free survival (PFS, primary study endpoint), final complete response (CR) using Hydrashift Isa immunofixation assay, minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity, and safety. Enrolled patients had relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (1-3 prior treatment lines). Isa 10 mg/kg was administered intravenously weekly in cycle 1 then biweekly. Efficacy analyses were performed in the intent-to-treat population (Isa-Kd: n = 179, Kd: n = 123) and safety evaluated in treated patients (Isa-Kd: n = 177, Kd: n = 122). Consistent with the primary interim analysis, the addition of Isa to Kd prolonged PFS (HR 0.58, 95.4% CI: 0.42-0.79; median PFS 35.7 [95% CI: 25.8-44.0] vs 19.2 [95% CI: 15.8-25.0] months). PFS benefit was observed with Isa-Kd across subgroups, including patients with poor prognosis. The stringent CR/CR rate was 44.1% vs 28.5% (odds-ratio: 2.09, 95% CI: 1.26-3.48), the MRD negativity rate 33.5% vs 15.4% (odds-ratio: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.55-4.99) and the MRD negativity CR rate 26.3% vs 12.2%, with Isa-Kd vs Kd. The safety profile of Isa-Kd was similar to that reported in the prior interim analysis. These findings further support Isa-Kd as a standard-of-care treatment for relapsed multiple myeloma patients.Clinical trial information: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03275285.

"What I wanted to do was build myself back up and prepare": qualitative findings from the PERCEPT trial of prehabilitation during autologous stem cell transplantation in myeloma.

BACKGROUND: The addition of qualitative methodology to randomised controlled trials evaluating complex interventions allows better understanding of contextualised factors and their potential influence on trial delivery and outcomes, as well as opportunities for feedback on trial participation to improve future trial protocols. This study explored the experiences of participation in cancer rehabilitation research during active cancer treatment. Participants were people living with haematological cancer myeloma, undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) recruited to the PERCEPT myeloma pilot trial. METHODS: A qualitative semi-structured interview study, embedded within a pilot randomised controlled trial of a physiotherapist-led exercise intervention delivered before, during and after ASCT among people living with myeloma. Transcripts were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Interviews from 16 trial participants (n = 8 intervention group; n = 8 control group; mean age 61 years, 56% male) were analysed. Four main themes were identified: (1) "It's not just beneficial for me, it's for people after me as well"; (2) Disparities in experience of recovery - expectations, feeling prepared and support; (3) "What I wanted to do was build myself back up and prepare"; (4) Active ingredients - participants' experience of the trial intervention. Participants reported both altruistic and perceived personal gain as motivators for enrolling in the trial. Disappointment caused by allocation to control arm may have led to participants seeking exercise elsewhere, indicating possible contamination of control condition. Disparities in experience of recovery from transplant were evident with intervention participants reporting greater trajectory of recovery. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this embedded qualitative study highlight numerous considerations required when designing pilot and efficacy trials of complex interventions. The addition of qualitative investigation offers greater understanding of motivations for participation, intervention mechanisms at play as well as effects of participation that may impact interpretation of quantitative outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Qualitative findings from a prospectively registered pilot trial (ISRCTN15875290), registered 13/02/2019.

Personalised progression prediction in patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma (PANGEA): a retrospective, multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with precursors to multiple myeloma are dichotomised as having monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma on the basis of monoclonal protein concentrations or bone marrow plasma cell percentage. Current risk stratifications use laboratory measurements at diagnosis and do not incorporate time-varying biomarkers. Our goal was to develop a monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smouldering multiple myeloma stratification algorithm that utilised accessible, time-varying biomarkers to model risk of progression to multiple myeloma. METHODS: In this retrospective, multicohort study, we included patients who were 18 years or older with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma. We evaluated several modelling approaches for predicting disease progression to multiple myeloma using a training cohort (with patients at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, USA; annotated from Nov, 13, 2019, to April, 13, 2022). We created the PANGEA models, which used data on biomarkers (monoclonal protein concentration, free light chain ratio, age, creatinine concentration, and bone marrow plasma cell percentage) and haemoglobin trajectories from medical records to predict progression from precursor disease to multiple myeloma. The models were validated in two independent validation cohorts from National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (Athens, Greece; from Jan 26, 2020, to Feb 7, 2022; validation cohort 1), University College London (London, UK; from June 9, 2020, to April 10, 2022; validation cohort 1), and Registry of Monoclonal Gammopathies (Czech Republic, Czech Republic; Jan 5, 2004, to March 10, 2022; validation cohort 2). We compared the PANGEA models (with bone marrow [BM] data and without bone marrow [no BM] data) to current criteria (International Myeloma Working Group [IMWG] monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and 20/2/20 smouldering multiple myeloma risk criteria). FINDINGS: We included 6441 patients, 4931 (77%) with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and 1510 (23%) with smouldering multiple myeloma. 3430 (53%) of 6441 participants were female. The PANGEA model (BM) improved prediction of progression from smouldering multiple myeloma to multiple myeloma compared with the 20/2/20 model, with a C-statistic increase from 0·533 (0·480-0·709) to 0·756 (0·629-0·785) at patient visit 1 to the clinic, 0·613 (0·504-0·704) to 0·720 (0·592-0·775) at visit 2, and 0·637 (0·386-0·841) to 0·756 (0·547-0·830) at visit three in validation cohort 1. The PANGEA model (no BM) improved prediction of smouldering multiple myeloma progression to multiple myeloma compared with the 20/2/20 model with a C-statistic increase from 0·534 (0·501-0·672) to 0·692 (0·614-0·736) at visit 1, 0·573 (0·518-0·647) to 0·693 (0·605-0·734) at visit 2, and 0·560 (0·497-0·645) to 0·692 (0·570-0·708) at visit 3 in validation cohort 1. The PANGEA models improved prediction of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance progression to multiple myeloma compared with the IMWG rolling model at visit 1 in validation cohort 2, with C-statistics increases from 0·640 (0·518-0·718) to 0·729 (0·643-0·941) for the PANGEA model (BM) and 0·670 (0·523-0·729) to 0·879 (0·586-0·938) for the PANGEA model (no BM). INTERPRETATION: Use of the PANGEA models in clinical practice will allow patients with precursor disease to receive more accurate measures of their risk of progression to multiple myeloma, thus prompting for more appropriate treatment strategies. FUNDING: SU2C Dream Team and Cancer Research UK.

Exercise prehabilitation for people with myeloma undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation: results from PERCEPT pilot randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) is first line treatment for newly diagnosed patients with myeloma but often results in functional deficits and reduced quality of life (QOL). Physically active myeloma patients have better QOL, less fatigue and reduced morbidity. This trial aimed to investigate the feasibility of a physiotherapist-led exercise intervention delivered across the continuum of the myeloma ASCT pathway at a UK centre. Initially designed and delivered as a face-to-face trial, the study protocol was adapted to virtual delivery in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A pilot randomised controlled trial of a partly supervised exercise intervention with incorporated behaviour change techniques delivered before, during and for 3 months following ASCT compared to usual care. Face-to-face delivery of the pre-ASCT supervised intervention was adapted to virtually-supervised group classes via video conferencing. Primary outcomes related to feasibility; recruitment rate, attrition and adherence. Secondary outcomes included patient reported measures of QOL (EORTC C30, FACT-BMT, EQ5D), and fatigue (FACIT-F), measures of functional capacity (six-minute walk test (6MWT), timed sit-to-stand (TSTS), hand grip strength, self-reported and objective physical activity (PA). RESULTS: Over 11 months 50 participants were enrolled and randomised. Overall, uptake to the study was 46%. The attrition rate was 34%, mainly related to failure to undergo ASCT. Loss of follow-up for other reasons was low. Secondary outcomes demonstrate potential for the benefit of exercise prior to, during and after ASCT with improvements in QOL, fatigue, functional capacity and PA evident on admission for ASCT and 3 months post-ASCT. DISCUSSION: Results indicate acceptability and feasibility of delivering exercise prehabilitation, in person and virtually within the ASCT pathway in myeloma. The effects of prehabilitation and rehabilitation provision as a component of the ASCT pathway warrants further investigation.