Social feasibility assessments in conservation translocations.

Improving the effectiveness of conservation translocations could contribute to reversing global biodiversity loss. Although evaluations of ecological factors affecting translocation outcomes are commonplace, consideration of human social factors remains rare, hindering improvements to this conservation practice. We analysed 550 translocation case studies to explore the inclusion of social factors in project feasibility assessments. Reviewed projects often failed to assess social feasibility, and assessments, where attempted, tended to be narrow in scope. Consequently, challenges such as proactively addressing conflict often remained unaddressed. Insufficient knowledge sharing and prioritisation of ecological feasibility, to the detriment of social feasibility, remain barriers to effective planning. Successful outcomes of translocations are linked to early assessment of social feasibility and to the establishment of long-term commitments between people, places, and partners.

Testing a global standard for quantifying species recovery and assessing conservation impact.

Recognizing the imperative to evaluate species recovery and conservation impact, in 2012 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) called for development of a "Green List of Species" (now the IUCN Green Status of Species). A draft Green Status framework for assessing species' progress toward recovery, published in 2018, proposed 2 separate but interlinked components: a standardized method (i.e., measurement against benchmarks of species' viability, functionality, and preimpact distribution) to determine current species recovery status (herein species recovery score) and application of that method to estimate past and potential future impacts of conservation based on 4 metrics (conservation legacy, conservation dependence, conservation gain, and recovery potential). We tested the framework with 181 species representing diverse taxa, life histories, biomes, and IUCN Red List categories (extinction risk). Based on the observed distribution of species' recovery scores, we propose the following species recovery categories: fully recovered, slightly depleted, moderately depleted, largely depleted, critically depleted, extinct in the wild, and indeterminate. Fifty-nine percent of tested species were considered largely or critically depleted. Although there was a negative relationship between extinction risk and species recovery score, variation was considerable. Some species in lower risk categories were assessed as farther from recovery than those at higher risk. This emphasizes that species recovery is conceptually different from extinction risk and reinforces the utility of the IUCN Green Status of Species to more fully understand species conservation status. Although extinction risk did not predict conservation legacy, conservation dependence, or conservation gain, it was positively correlated with recovery potential. Only 1.7% of tested species were categorized as zero across all 4 of these conservation impact metrics, indicating that conservation has, or will, play a role in improving or maintaining species status for the vast majority of these species. Based on our results, we devised an updated assessment framework that introduces the option of using a dynamic baseline to assess future impacts of conservation over the short term to avoid misleading results which were generated in a small number of cases, and redefines short term as 10 years to better align with conservation planning. These changes are reflected in the IUCN Green Status of Species Standard.

RESUMEN: Reconociendo que era imperativo evaluar la recuperación de especies y el impacto de la conservación, la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) convocó en 2012 al desarrollo de una "Lista Verde de Especies" (ahora el Estatus Verde de las Especies de la UICN). Un marco de referencia preliminar de una Lista Verde de Especies para evaluar el progreso de las especies hacia la recuperación, publicado en 2018, proponía 2 componentes separados pero interconectados: un método estandarizado (i.e., medición en relación con puntos de referencia de la viabilidad de especies, funcionalidad y distribución antes del impacto) para determinar el estatus de recuperación actual (puntuación de recuperación de la especie) y la aplicación de ese método para estimar impactos en el pasado y potenciales de conservación basados en 4 medidas (legado de conservación, dependencia de conservación, ganancia de conservación y potencial de recuperación). Probamos el marco de referencia con 181 especies representantes de diversos taxa, historias de vida, biomas, y categorías (riesgo de extinción) en la Lista Roja de la IUCN. Con base en la distribución observada de la puntuación de recuperación de las especies, proponemos las siguientes categorías de recuperación de la especie: totalmente recuperada, ligeramente mermada, moderadamente mermada, mayormente mermada, gravemente mermada, extinta en estado silvestre, e inderterminada. Cincuenta y nueve por ciento de las especies se consideraron mayormente o gravemente mermada. Aunque hubo una relación negativa entre el riesgo de extinción y la puntuación de recuperación de la especie, la variación fue considerable. Algunas especies en las categorías de riesgo bajas fueron evaluadas como más lejos de recuperarse que aquellas con alto riesgo. Esto enfatiza que la recuperación de especies es diferente conceptualmente al riesgo de extinción y refuerza la utilidad del Estado Verde de las Especies de la UICN para comprender integralmente el estatus de conservación de especies. Aunque el riesgo de extinción no predijo el legado de conservación, la dependencia de conservación o la ganancia de conservación, se correlacionó positivamente con la potencial de recuperación. Solo 1.7% de las especies probadas fue categorizado como cero en los 4 indicadores de impacto de la conservación, lo que indica que la conservación ha jugado, o jugará, un papel en la mejoría o mantenimiento del estatus de la especie la gran mayoría de ellas. Con base en nuestros resultados, diseñamos una versión actualizada del marco de referencia para la evaluación que introduce la opción de utilizar una línea de base dinámica para evaluar los impactos futuros de la conservación en el corto plazo y redefine corto plazo como 10 años.

Assessing congruence of opportunistic records and systematic surveys for predicting Hispaniolan mammal species distributions.

Comparative assessment of the relative information content of different independent spatial data types is necessary to evaluate whether they provide congruent biogeographic signals for predicting species ranges. Opportunistic occurrence records and systematically collected survey data are available from the Dominican Republic for Hispaniola's surviving endemic non-volant mammals, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus) and Hispaniolan hutia (Plagiodontia aedium); opportunistic records (archaeological, historical and recent) exist from across the entire country, and systematic survey data have been collected from seven protected areas. Species distribution models were developed in maxent for solenodons and hutias using both data types, with species habitat suitability and potential country-level distribution predicted using seven biotic and abiotic environmental variables. Three different models were produced and compared for each species: (a) opportunistic model, with starting model incorporating abiotic-only predictors; (b) total survey model, with starting model incorporating biotic and abiotic predictors; and (c) reduced survey model, with starting model incorporating abiotic-only predictors to allow further comparison with the opportunistic model. All models predict suitable environmental conditions for both solenodons and hutias across a broadly congruent, relatively large area of the Dominican Republic, providing a spatial baseline of conservation-priority landscapes that might support native mammals. Correlation between total and reduced survey models is high for both species, indicating the substantial explanatory power of abiotic variables for predicting Hispaniolan mammal distributions. However, correlation between survey models and opportunistic models is only moderately positive. Species distribution models derived from different data types can provide different predictions about habitat suitability and conservation-priority landscapes for threatened species, likely reflecting incompleteness and bias in spatial sampling associated with both data types. Models derived using both opportunistic and systematic data must therefore be applied critically and cautiously.

A framework for evaluating the impact of the IUCN Red List of threatened species.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, a species extinction risk assessment tool, has been guiding conservation efforts for over 5 decades. It is widely assumed to have been instrumental in preventing species from moving closer to extinction and driving recoveries. However, the impact of the IUCN Red List in guiding conservation has not been evaluated. We conducted, transcribed, and coded interviews with experts who use the IUCN Red List across a range of sectors to understand how the list is used in conservation. We developed a theory of change to illustrate how and why change is expected to occur along causal pathways contributing to the long-term goal of the IUCN Red List and an evaluation framework with indicators for measuring the impact of the IUCN Red List in generating scientific knowledge, raising awareness among stakeholders, designating priority conservation sites, allocating funding and resources, influencing development of legislation and policy, and guiding targeted conservation action (key themes). Red-list assessments were the primary input leading to outputs (scientific knowledge, raised awareness), outcomes (better informed priority setting, access to funding and resource availability, improved legislation and policy), and impact (implemented conservation action leading to positive change) that have resulted in achievement of IUCN Red List goals. To explore feasibility of attributing the difference made by the IUCN Red List across themes, we studied increased scientific knowledge, raised awareness, access to funding and resource allocation, and increased conservation activity. The feasibility exploration showed increased scientific knowledge over time identified through positive trends in publications referring to the IUCN Red List in the literature; raised awareness of the list following high IUCN activity identified by peaks in online search activity; an increased proportion of conservation funding bodies requesting IUCN Red List status in the application process; and, based on interviews with Amphibian Specialist Group members, red-list assessments were essential in connecting relevant stakeholders and ensuring conservation action. Although we identified the IUCN Red List as a vital tool in global conservation efforts, it was challenging to measure specific impacts because of its ubiquitous nature. We are the first to identify the influence of the IUCN Red List on conservation.

Un Marco de Referencia para la Evaluación del Impacto de la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la UICN Resumen La Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN), una herramienta para la valoración del riesgo de extinción de las especies ha guiado los esfuerzos de conservación durante más de cinco décadas. A partir de esto, se ha asumido como generalidad que la lista ha sido determinante para prevenir que las especies se acerquen más a la extinción y para impulsar la recuperación de especies. Sin embargo, todavía no se ha evaluado el impacto que la Lista Roja de la UICN ha tenido en las directrices de la conservación. Realizamos, transcribimos y codificamos entrevistas con expertos que usan la Lista Roja de la UICN en una gama de sectores para así entender cómo se usa la lista para la conservación. Desarrollamos una teoría de cambio para ilustrar cómo y por qué se espera que ocurra un cambio en Atorno a las vías causales que contribuyen al objetivo de largo plazo que tiene la Lista Roja de la UICN. También formulamos un marco de trabajo con los indicadores necesarios para evaluar el impacto que tiene la Lista Roja de la UICN en la generación de conocimiento científico, la creación de conciencia entre los actores sociales, la designación de sitios prioritarios para la conservación, la asignación de fondos y recursos, la influencia sobre el desarrollo de la legislación y de las políticas, y la orientación de acciones de conservación enfocadas (temas clave). Las evaluaciones de la lista roja fueron los aportadores principales que derivaron en resultados (conocimiento científico, creación de conciencia), consecuencias (establecimiento de prioridades mejor informadas, acceso a financiamiento y disponibilidad de recursos, mejorías en la legislación y en la política) e impactos (acciones implementadas de conservación que derivaron en cambios positivos) que han resultado en la obtención de objetivos de la Lista Roja de la UICN. Para explorar la viabilidad de la atribución de la diferencia que genera la Lista Roja de la UICN en todos los temas clave estudiamos el incremento en el conocimiento científico, la conciencia generada, el acceso a financiamientos y la asignación de recursos, y el crecimiento en las acciones de conservación. Esta exploración de la viabilidad mostró un incremento con el tiempo del conocimiento científico, identificado por medio de tendencias positivas en las publicaciones de la literatura referidas a la Lista Roja de la UICN. También mostró una mayor conciencia por la lista tras una alta actividad de la UICN, la cual identificamos por medio de picos en la actividad de búsqueda en línea. Finalmente, la exploración arrojó una proporción crecida de organizaciones de financiamiento para la conservación que solicitaron el estado de la especie en la Lista Roja de la UICN durante el proceso de aplicación y, con base en entrevistas realizadas a miembros del Grupo Especialista en Anfibios, que las valoraciones de la lista roja fueron esenciales para conectar entre sí a los actores relevantes y para asegurar las acciones de conservación. Aunque identificamos que la Lista Roja de la UICN es una herramienta vital para los esfuerzos mundiales de conservación, fue todo un reto medir los impactos específicos debido a su naturaleza ubicua. Somos los primeros en identificar la influencia que tiene la Lista Roja de la UICN sobre la conservación.

Reservoir frogs: seasonality of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in robber frogs in Dominica and Montserrat.

Emerging infectious diseases are an increasingly important threat to wildlife conservation, with amphibian chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the disease most commonly associated with species declines and extinctions. However, some amphibians can be infected with B. dendrobatidis in the absence of disease and can act as reservoirs of the pathogen. We surveyed robber frogs (Eleutherodactylus spp.), potential B. dendrobatidis reservoir species, at three sites on Montserrat, 2011-2013, and on Dominica in 2014, to identify seasonal patterns in B. dendrobatidis infection prevalence and load (B. dendrobatidis genomic equivalents). On Montserrat there was significant seasonality in B. dendrobatidis prevalence and B. dendrobatidis load, both of which were correlated with temperature but not rainfall. B. dendrobatidis prevalence reached 35% in the cooler, drier months but was repeatedly undetectable during the warmer, wetter months. Also, B. dendrobatidis prevalence significantly decreased from 53.2% when the pathogen emerged on Montserrat in 2009 to a maximum 34.8% by 2011, after which it remained stable. On Dominica, where B. dendrobatidis emerged seven years prior to Montserrat, the same seasonal pattern was recorded but at lower prevalence, possibly indicating long-term decline. Understanding the dynamics of disease threats such as chytridiomycosis is key to planning conservation measures. For example, reintroductions of chytridiomycosis-threatened species could be timed to coincide with periods of low B. dendrobatidis infection risk, increasing potential for reintroduction success.

The impact of habitat quality inside protected areas on distribution of the Dominican Republic's last endemic non-volant land mammals.

The Hispaniolan solenodon, Solenodon paradoxus, and Hispaniolan hutia, Plagiodontia aedium, are the Dominican Republic's only surviving endemic non-volant land mammals, and are high priorities for conservation. The country has an extensive protected area (PA) network designed to maintain habitats and benefit biodiversity, but which faces significant anthropogenic threats likely to detrimentally impact both species. We examined how differences in habitats, forest structure, topography, and human activity influence presence of solenodons and hutias across the Dominican Republic. Systematic surveys of seven PAs were undertaken to record indirect signs, with presence-absence data analyzed using a multi-model inference approach incorporating ecological variables from both field and GIS data. Solenodons were detected relatively frequently, whereas detections of hutias were uncommon. Lower elevations, increased surrounding tree cover, canopy closure, and reduced levels of low vegetation are all associated with increased probability of detecting solenodons, whereas agriculture and mangrove represent poor-quality habitat. Increased canopy closure, tree basal area (indicating older-growth forest), and increased rock substrate (providing more den sites) are associated with increased probability of detecting hutias. Our findings indicated that human activities within PAs are likely to negatively affect both species, and conservation activities should focus on preventing encroachment and conversion of forest to agriculture to maintain high-quality forest habitats. El solenodonte de la Hispaniola, Solenodon paradoxus, y la hutia de la Hispaniola, Plagiodontia aedium, son los únicos mamíferos endémicos terrestres no voladores que sobreviven en la República Dominicana, su conservación es de alta prioridad. El país tiene una extensa red de áreas protegidas (AP) diseñada para mantener hábitats y beneficiar la biodiversidad, pero se enfrenta a amenazas antropogénicas. Sin embargo, no existen datos cuantitativos para evaluar las presiones antropogénicas que amenazan a los solenodontes y las hutias. Examinamos cómo las diferencias en los hábitats, la estructura del bosque, la topografía y la actividad humana influyen la presencia de solenodontes y hutias en toda la República Dominicana. Se realizaron encuestas sistemáticas de siete AP para registrar los signos indirectos de ambas especies, los datos de presencia/ausencia fueron analizados mediante inferencia multimodelo que incorpora variables ecológicas de los datos de campo y Sistema de Información Geográfica. Los Solenodontes se detectaron relativamente frecuentemente, mientras que las detecciones de hutias fueron menos comunes. Las elevaciones más bajas, el aumento de la cubierta arbórea circundante, el cierre del dosel y los niveles reducidos de vegetación baja se asocian con una mayor probabilidad de detectar solenodones. Mientras que la agricultura y los manglares representan un hábitat de mala calidad para el solenodonte. Aumento del cierre del dosel, área basal del árbol (que indica un bosque más antiguo) y un sustrato con mayor proporcion de roca (que proporciona más sitios para madrigueras) se asocian con una mayor probabilidad de detectar hutias. Nuestros hallazgos indican que las actividades humanas dentro de las AP pueden afectar negativamente a ambas especies. Las actividades de conservación deberían enfocarse en mantener hábitats forestales de alta calidad por medio de prevenir la invasión y la conversión de los bosques a agricultura.

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species.

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.

To what extent do potential conservation donors value community-aspects of conservation projects in low income countries?

There is a major gap in funding required for conservation, especially in low income countries. Given the significant contribution of taxpayers in industrialized countries to funding conservation overseas, and donations from membership organisation, understanding the preferences of ordinary people in a high income country for different attributes of conservation projects is valuable for future marketing of conservation. We conducted a discrete choice experiment with visitors to a UK zoo, while simultaneously conducting a revealed preference study through a real donation campaign on the same sample. Respondents showed the highest willingness to pay for projects that have local community involvement in management (95% confidence interval £9.82 to £15.83), and for improvement in threatened species populations (£2.97 - £13.87). Both of these were significantly larger than the willingness to pay for projects involving provision of alternative livelihoods, or improving the condition of conservation sites. Results of the simultaneous donation campaign showed that respondents were very willing to donate the suggested £1 or above donation (88% made a donation, n = 1798); there was no effect of which of the two campaigns they were exposed to (threatened species management or community involvement in management). The small number of people who did not make a donation had a higher stated willingness to pay within the choice experiment, which may suggest hypothetical bias. Conservationists increasingly argue that conservation should include local communities in management (for both pragmatic and moral reasons). It is heartening that potential conservation donors seem to agree.

Profound and pervasive degradation of Madagascar's freshwater wetlands and links with biodiversity.

Reflecting a global trend, freshwater wetlands in Madagascar have received little conservation or research attention. Madagascar is a global conservation priority due to its high level of species endemism but most work has focused on protecting forests. For the first time, we investigated the state of wetlands across the country to determine the effects of human disturbance. We conducted a rapid survey of 37 wetlands, using waterbirds and benthic invertebrates as ecological indicators. We recorded nine variables relating to human disturbance, revealing widespread wetland destruction. Principal Components Analysis reduced the nine variables to a single Principal Component (PC) that explained 50% of the dataset variance, demonstrating that different forms of human disturbance are ubiquitous and inseparable. The disturbance PC provides an index of how pristine a lake is and in Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) was significantly inversely related to the number of waterbird species present and the density of Chironomidae. The disturbance PC was estimated for every wetland in a GIS-derived dataset of wetland locations in Madagascar, giving a country-wide frequency distribution of disturbance. To validate the estimated PC values, we used the GLMs to predict the number of endemic bird species at an independent sample of 22 lakes. The predicted values correlated with the observed number of species, demonstrating that our procedure can identify lakes with high biodiversity value. The disturbance PC provides a convenient method for ranking sites, and a country-wide ranking demonstrates that the only near-pristine lakes in Madagascar are small sites that have been preserved by remoteness from human activity and not conservation management. The strategy of conserving high biodiversity remnants is insufficient because existing remnants suffer some degree of degradation and only support small populations of threatened species. Large-scale restoration of degraded wetlands is required for the long-term conservation of Madagascar's freshwater biodiversity.

Assessing the global zoo response to the amphibian crisis through 20-year trends in captive collections.

Global amphibian declines are one of the biggest challenges currently facing the conservation community, and captive breeding is one way to address this crisis. Using information from the International Species Information System zoo network, we examined trends in global zoo amphibian holdings across species, zoo region, and species geographical region of origin from 1994 to 2014. These trends were compared before and after the 2004 Global Amphibian Assessment to assess whether any changes occurred and whether zoo amphibian conservation effort had increased. The numbers of globally threatened species (GTS) and their proportional representation in global zoo holdings increased and this rate of increase was significantly greater after 2004. North American, European, and Oceanian GTS were best represented in zoos globally, and proportions of Oceanian GTS held increased the most since 2004. South American and Asian GTS had the lowest proportional representation in zoos. At a regional zoo level, European zoos held the lowest proportions of GTS, and this proportion did not increase after 2004. Since 1994, the number of species held in viable populations has increased, and these species are distributed among more institutions. However, as of 2014, zoos held 6.2% of globally threatened amphibians, a much smaller figure than for other vertebrate groups and one that falls considerably short of the number of species for which ex situ management may be desirable. Although the increased effort zoos have put into amphibian conservation over the past 20 years is encouraging, more focus is needed on ex situ conservation priority species. This includes building expertise and capacity in countries that hold them and tracking existing conservation efforts if the evidence-based approach to amphibian conservation planning at a global level is to be further developed.

A comparative approach to assess drivers of success in mammalian conservation recovery programs.

The outcomes of species recovery programs have been mixed; high-profile population recoveries contrast with species-level extinctions. Each conservation intervention has its own challenges, but to inform more effective management it is imperative to assess whether correlates of wider recovery program success or failure can be identified. To contribute to evidence-based improvement of future conservation strategies, we conducted a global quantitative analysis of 48 mammalian recovery programs. We reviewed available scientific literature and conducted semistructured interviews with conservation professionals involved in different recovery programs to investigate ecological, management, and political factors associated with population recoveries or declines. Identifying and removing threats was significantly associated with increasing population trend and decreasing conservation dependence, emphasizing that populations are likely to continue to be compromised in the absence of effective threat mitigation and supporting the need for threat monitoring and adaptive management in response to new and potential threats. Lack of habitat and small population size were cited as limiting factors in 56% and 42% of recovery programs, respectively, and both were statistically associated with increased longer term dependence on conservation intervention, demonstrating the importance of increasing population numbers quickly and restoring and protecting habitat. Poor stakeholder coordination and management were also regularly cited by respondents as key weaknesses in recovery programs, indicating the importance of effective leadership and shared goals and management plans. Project outcomes were not influenced by biological or ecological variables such as body mass or habitat, which suggests that these insights into correlates of conservation success and failure are likely to be generalizable across mammals.

A new subspecies of hutia (Plagiodontia, Capromyidae, Rodentia) from southern Hispaniola.

Continued uncertainty persists over the taxonomic status of many threatened Caribbean mammal populations. Recent molecular analysis has identified three genetically isolated allopatric hutia populations on Hispaniola that diverged during the Middle Pleistocene, with observed levels of sequence divergence interpreted as representing subspecies-level differentiation through comparison with genetic data for other capromyids. Subsequent analysis of existing museum specimens has demonstrated biogeographically congruent morphometric differentiation for two of these three populations, Plagiodontia aedium aedium (southwestern population) and P. aedium hylaeum (northern population). We report the first craniodental material for the southeastern Hispaniolan hutia population, and demonstrate that this population can also be differentiated using quantitative morphometric analysis from other Hispaniolan hutia subspecies. The holotype skull of P. aedium aedium, of unknown geographic provenance within Hispaniola, clusters morphometrically with the southwestern population. The southeastern Hispaniolan subspecies is described as Plagiodontia aedium bondi subsp. nov., and is assessed as Endangered under Criterion B1a,biii,v on the IUCN Red List.

How to save the rarest Darwin's finch from extinction: the mangrove finch on Isabela Island.

Habitat destruction and predation by invasive alien species has led to the disappearance of several island populations of Darwin's finches but to date none of the 13 recognized species have gone extinct. However, driven by rapid economic growth in the Galápagos, the effects of introduced species have accelerated and severely threatened these iconic birds. The critically endangered mangrove finch (Camarhynchus heliobates) is now confined to three small mangroves on Isabela Island. During 2006-2009, we assessed its population status and monitored nesting success, both before and after rat poisoning. Population size was estimated at around only 100 birds for the two main breeding sites, with possibly 5-10 birds surviving at a third mangrove. Before rat control, 54 per cent of nests during incubation phase were predated with only 18 per cent of nests producing fledglings. Post-rat control, nest predation during the incubation phase fell to 30 per cent with 37 per cent of nests producing fledglings. During the nestling phase, infestation by larvae of the introduced parasitic fly (Philornis downsi) caused 14 per cent additional mortality. Using population viability analysis, we simulated the probability of population persistence under various scenarios of control and showed that with effective management of these invasive species, mangrove finch populations should start to recover.