Relationship of close contact settings with transmission and infection during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai.

INTRODUCTION: We analysed case-contact clusters during the Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai to assess the risk of infection of contacts in different settings and to evaluate the effect of demographic factors on the association of infectivity and susceptibility to the Omicron variant. METHODS: Data on the settings and frequency of contact, demographic characteristics and comorbidities of index cases, contacts and secondary cases were analysed. Independent effect of multiple variables on the risk for transmission and infection was evaluated using generalised estimating equations. RESULTS: From 1 March to 1 June 2022, we identified 450 770 close contacts of 90 885 index cases. The risk for infection was greater for contacts in farmers' markets (fixed locations where farmers gather to sell products, adjusted OR (aOR): 3.62; 95% CI 2.87 to 4.55) and households (aOR: 2.68; 95% CI 2.15 to 3.35). Children (0-4 years) and elderly adults (60 years and above) had higher risk for infection and transmission. During the course of the epidemic, the risk for infection and transmission in different age groups initially increased, and then decreased on about 21 April (17th day of citywide home quarantine). Compared with medical workers (reference, aOR: 1.00), unemployed contacts (aOR: 1.77; 95% CI 1.53 to 2.04) and preschoolers (aOR: 1.61; 95% CI 1.26 to 2.05) had the highest risk for infection; delivery workers (aOR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.51 to 2.40) and public service workers (aOR: 1.85; 95% CI 1.64 to 2.10) had the highest risk for transmission. Contacts who had comorbidities (aOR: 1.10; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.12) had a higher risk for infection, particularly those with lung diseases or immune deficiency. CONCLUSION: Farmers' markets and households were the main setting for transmission of Omicron. Children, the elderly, delivery workers and public service workers had the highest risk for transmission and infection. These findings should be considered when implementing targeted interventions.

Effect of mobile health reminders on tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Shanghai, China: A prospective cohort study.

Background: Poor adherence increases the risk of unfavorable outcomes for tuberculosis (TB) patients. Mobile health (mHealth) reminders become promising approaches to support TB patients' treatment. But their effects on TB treatment outcomes remain controversial. In this prospective cohort study, we evaluated the effect of the reminder application (app) and the smart pillbox on TB treatment outcomes compared with the standard care in Shanghai, China. Methods: We recruited new pulmonary TB (PTB) patients diagnosed between April and November 2019 who were aged 18 or above, treated with the first-line regimen (2HREZ/4HR), and registered at Songjiang CDC (Shanghai). All eligible patients were invited to choose the standard care, the reminder app, or the smart pillbox to support their treatment. Cox proportional hazard model was fitted to assess the effect of mHealth reminders on treatment success. Results: 260 of 324 eligible patients enrolled with 88 using standard care, 82 the reminder app, and 90 the smart pillbox, followed for a total of 77,430 days. 175 (67.3%) participants were male. The median age was 32 (interquartile range [IQR] 25 to 50) years. A total of 44,785 doses were scheduled for 172 patients in the mHealth reminder groups during the study period. 44,604 (99.6%) doses were taken with 39,280 (87.7%) monitored by the mHealth reminders. A significant time-dependent downward linear trend was observed in the monthly proportion of dose intake (p < 0.001). 247 (95%) patients were successfully treated. The median treatment duration of successfully treated patients in the standard care group was 360 (IQR 283-369) days, significantly longer than those in the reminder app group (296, IQR 204-365, days) and the smart pillbox group (280, IQR 198-365, days) (both p < 0.01). Using the reminder app and the smart pillbox was associated with 1.58 times and 1.63 times increase in the possibility of treatment success compared with the standard care, respectively (both p < 0.01). Conclusion: The reminder app and the smart pillbox interventions were acceptable and improved the treatment outcomes compared with the standard care under the programmatic setting in Shanghai, China. More high-level evidence is expected to confirm the effect of mHealth reminders on TB treatment outcomes.

Prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection and incidence of active tuberculosis in school close contacts in Shanghai, China: Baseline and follow-up results of a prospective cohort study.

Background: The management of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is a key action for the realization of the "End tuberculosis (TB) Strategy" worldwide, and it is important to identify priority populations. In this prospective cohort study, we evaluated the prevalence of LTBI and incidence of active TB among close contacts and explored the suitable TB control strategy in schools. Methods: We designed a cohort with 2 years of follow-up, recruiting freshman/sophomore TB patients' close contacts from three administrative districts in Shanghai. These were chosen based on different levels of TB incidence reported in 2019. Questionnaires were included and all participants received both tuberculin skin test (TST) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT) at baseline, then tracked the outcomes of them during the follow-up period. Results: The prevalence of LTBI was 4.8% by QFT. Univariate analysis showed that the risk of LTBI was higher in those contacting bacteriologically confirmed patients or did not have BCG scars, including smokers. The risk increased with poor lighting and ventilation conditions at contact sites. Multivariate analysis showed that those contacting with bacteriologically confirmed patients (OR=4.180; 95%CI, 1.164-15.011) or who did not have BCG scars (OR=5.054; 95%CI, 2.278-11.214) had a higher risk of being LTBI, as did the current smokers (OR=3.916; 95%CI, 1.508-10.168) and those who had stopped smoking (OR=7.491; 95%CI, 2.222-25.249). During the 2-year follow-up period, three clinically diagnosed cases of TB were recorded, the 2-year cumulative incidence was 0.4% (95%CI 0.1-1.2), the median duration for TB occurrence was 1 year, the incidence rate of active TB was 2.0 per 1000 person-years with a total of 1497.3 observation person-years. For those LTBI, no one initiated preventive treatment, in the QFT (+) cohort, 1 TB case was observed, 71 person-years with an incidence rate of 14.1 14.1 (95%CI 2.5-75.6) per 1000 person-years, in the TST (+++) cohort, 2 TB cases were observed 91.5 person-years with an incidence rate of 21.9 (95%CI 6.0-76.3) per 1000 person-years. Conclusions: The results suggest that school close contacts are one of the key populations for LTBI management. Measures should be taken to further reduce the prevalence of LTBI and the incidence of active TB among them.

Assessing the Diagnostic Accuracy of Physicians for Home Death Certification in Shanghai: Application of SmartVA.

Approximately 30% of deaths in Shanghai either occur at home or are not medically attended. The recorded cause of death (COD) in these cases may not be reliable. We applied the Smart Verbal Autopsy (VA) tool to assign the COD for a representative sample of home deaths certified by 16 community health centers (CHCs) from three districts in Shanghai, from December 2017 to June 2018. The results were compared with diagnoses from routine practice to ascertain the added value of using SmartVA. Overall, cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy improved from 0.93 (93%) to 0.96 after the application of SmartVA. A comparison with a "gold standard (GS)" diagnoses obtained from a parallel medical record review investigation found that 86.3% of the initial diagnoses made by the CHCs were assigned the correct COD, increasing to 90.5% after the application of SmartVA. We conclude that routine application of SmartVA is not indicated for general use in CHCs, although the tool did improve diagnostic accuracy for residual causes, such as other or ill-defined cancers and non-communicable diseases.

Are cause of death data for Shanghai fit for purpose? A retrospective study of medical records.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the quality of cause of death reporting in Shanghai for both hospital and home deaths. DESIGN AND SETTING: Medical records review (MRR) to independently establish a reference data set against which to compare original and adjusted diagnoses from a sample of three tertiary hospitals, one secondary level hospital and nine community health centres in Shanghai. PARTICIPANTS: 1757 medical records (61% males, 39% females) of deaths that occurred in these sample sites in 2017 were reviewed using established diagnostic standards. INTERVENTIONS: None. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Original underlying cause of death (UCOD) from medical facilities. SECONDARY OUTCOME: Routine UCOD assigned from the Shanghai Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) system and MRR UCODs from MRR. RESULTS: The original UCODs as assigned by doctors in the study facilities were of relatively low quality, reduced to 31% of deaths assigned to garbage codes, reduced to 2.3% following data quality and follow back procedures routinely applied by the Shanghai CRVS system. The original UCOD had lower chance-corrected concordance and cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy of 0.57 (0.44, 0.70) and 0.66, respectively, compared with 0.75 (0.66, 0.85) and 0.96, respectively, after routine data checking procedures had been applied. CONCLUSIONS: Training in correct death certification for clinical doctors, especially tertiary hospital doctors, is essential to improve UCOD quality in Shanghai. A routine quality control system should be established to actively track diagnostic performance and provide feedback to individual doctors or facilities as needed.

Epidemiology and Genetic Characterization of Classical Human Astrovirus Infection in Shanghai, 2015-2016.

OBJECTIVE: Human astroviruses (HAstVs) are single-stranded RNA viruses of the Astroviridae family. Infection of classic HAstVs is one of the most common causes of acute viral gastroenteritis (infectious viral diarrhea). There is a lack of data on the prevalence and genetic characterization of classic HAstVs in acute viral gastroenteritis in the whole population. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological trend, genotypes, viral co-infections, and viral loads of classic HAstVs in Shanghai, China, from January 2015 to December 2016. METHODS: A total of 6,051 non-redundant stool samples were collected in outpatients with acute diarrhea in Shanghai from January 2015 to December 2016. One-step real-time RT-PCR was used for screening viral diarrhea, including rotavirus A, rotavirus B, rotavirus C, norovirus genotype I and II, classic human astroviruses, and sapovirus. Real-time PCR was used for screening human enteric adenoviruses. Conventional RT-PCR was used for the amplification of viral fragments for genotyping. PCR products were sequenced and used for the construction of phylogenetic trees. RESULTS: The detection rate of classic HAstVs was 1.55% (94/6,051). The prevalence of HAstV infection displayed a typical winter/spring (December to March) seasonality and was highest in the 5-14 age group. Eighty-six samples were genotyped, which revealed HAstV-1 as the most prevalent genotype, followed by HAstV-5, HAstV-4, HAstV- 2, HAstV-8, and HAstV-3. There was a dramatic rise in the prevalence of HAstV-4 from December 2015 to March 2016, and the viral loads of HAstV-4 were significantly higher than those of other genotypes. Among the mixed infection samples, noroviruses were found to be the most frequently co-infected enteric viruses with HAstV. CONCLUSION: Multiple genotypes of classic HAstVs circulated in Shanghai from January 2015 to December 2016. For the first time, HAstV-3\4\5\8 were detected in Shanghai.

Effect of the Xpert MTB/RIF on the detection of pulmonary tuberculosis cases and rifampicin resistance in Shanghai, China.

BACKGROUND: Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is an automated molecular test recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) for diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). This study evaluated the effect of Xpert implementation on the detection of pulmonary TB (PTB) and rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) cases in Shanghai, China. METHODS: Xpert was routinely implemented in 2018 for all presumptive PTB patients. All PTB patients above 15 years-old identified within the Provincial TB Control Program during the first half of each of 2017 and 2018, were enrolled to compare the difference in proportions of bacteriological confirmation, patients with drug susceptibility test (DST) results for rifampicin (ie, DST coverage) and RR-TB detection before and after Xpert's implementation. RESULTS: A total of 6047 PTB patients were included in the analysis with 1691 tested by Xpert in 2018. Percentages of bacteriological confirmation, DST coverage and RR-TB detection in 2017 and 2018 were 50% vs. 59%, 36% vs. 49% and 2% vs. 3%, respectively (all p-values < 0.05). Among 1103 PTB patients who completed sputum smear, culture and Xpert testing in 2018, Xpert detected an additional 121 (11%) PTB patients who were negative by smear and culture, but missed 248 (23%) smear and/or culture positive patients. Besides, it accounted for an increase of 9% in DST coverage and 1% in RR-TB detection. The median time from first visit to a TB hospital to RR-TB detection was 62 days (interquartile range -IQR 48-84.2) in 2017 vs. 9 days (IQR 2-45.7) in 2018 (p-value < 0.001). In the multivariate model, using Xpert was associated with decreased time to RR-TB detection (adjusted hazard ratio = 4.62, 95% confidence interval: 3.18-6.71). CONCLUSIONS: Integrating Xpert with smear, culture and culture-based DST in a routine setting significantly increased bacteriological confirmation, DST coverage and RR-TB detection with a dramatic reduction in the time to RR-TB diagnosis in Shanghai, China. Our findings can be useful for other regions that attempt to integrate Xpert into routine PTB and RR-TB case-finding cascade. Further study should focus on the identification and elimination of operational level challenges to fully utilize the benefit of rapid diagnosis by Xpert.

Epidemiology, aetiology and seasonality of infectious diarrhoea in adult outpatients through active surveillance in Shanghai, China, 2012-2016: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, aetiology and seasonality of sporadic infectious diarrhoea in adults in Shanghai. SETTING: This study was based on a city-wide, active continuous hospital-based diarrhoea surveillance network established by Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. There were 22 sentinel hospitals in all 16 districts (9 primary-level hospitals, 6 secondary-level hospitals and 7 tertiary-level hospitals) which were selected using probability proportionate to size sampling method. PARTICIPANTS: From 1 May 2012 to 31 May 2016, 90 713 patients were included in this study. Among 8797 patients whose stool samples were collected and detected, 4392 patients were male. RESULTS: The positive rate was 47.96%. Bacterial and viral infections accounted for 27.19% and 69.07% separately. Norovirus was the most common pathogen (43.10%), followed by rotavirus, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, diarrhoeagenic Escherichia coli (DEC) and Salmonella spp. Patients between 30-44 and 45-59 years were more likely to have infectious diarrhoea and viral diarrhoea. Those aged 30-44 years were the most likely to get infected with V. parahaemolyticus (adjusted OR, aOR vs 60+ years: 2.04, 95% CI 1.47 to 2.78) and norovirus (aOR vs 60+ years: 1.32, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.56). Bacterial (except V. parahaemolyticus) diarrhoea was characterised by fever, abdominal pain and loose stool; while viral diarrhoea was characterised by nausea, vomiting and watery stool. A seasonal distribution of infectious diarrhoea was observed with larger peaks in winter and smaller peaks in summer. Winter peaks were mainly due to norovirus and rotavirus, and summer peaks were due to bacterial infections. An emerging spring peak of norovirus around March was observed in the past 3 years. CONCLUSION: Viral infections were predominant, and norovirus played a leading role. A seasonal distribution was observed and an emerging spring peak of norovirus was noted. Our findings highlight the necessity for conducting an active, comprehensive surveillance in adults, to monitor changing dynamics in the epidemiology and aetiology of infectious diarrhoea.

Acceptance of Chemo-prophylaxis for Latent Tuberculosis Infection among High School/College Student Contacts of Tuberculosis Patients in Shanghai, China.

Student contacts of tuberculosis (TB) cases are susceptible to latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), and chemo-prophylaxis can reduce the risk of active TB among them. This study aimed to assess the acceptance of chemo-prophylaxis for LTBI among students, and their concerns regarding TB and its preventive treatment. A total of 560 students contacts were included in the investigation. The extent of contact was categorized from high to low (4 levels) with 12.9% of the students being close contacts. About 87.0% of the students were willing to receive chemo-prophylaxis if diagnosed with, LTBI, whereas 73 students declined. Students with a higher level of knowledge about TB (aOR = 1.11) or close contact with TB patients (aOR = 4.30) were more likely to accept treatment. To conclude, education regarding TB transmission is necessary. Moreover, LTBI detection should be integrated into the current school-based TB contact investigation.

Diabetes mellitus in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in an aging population in Shanghai, China: Prevalence, clinical characteristics and outcomes.

AIMS: To determine the prevalence of diabetes mellitus among pulmonary tuberculosis patients and the difference of clinical characteristics and outcomes between pulmonary tuberculosis patients with and without diabetes mellitus in an aging population in Shanghai, China. METHODS: This is a retrospective population-based study. 201 newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Changning District, Shanghai during 2007-2008 were included. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were collected. Determination of diabetes mellitus was based on the medical records before pulmonary tuberculosis was diagnosed. RESULTS: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus among pulmonary tuberculosis patients was 19.9% (40/201). Pulmonary tuberculosis patients with diabetes mellitus were more likely to be old (≥50, OR=5.23, 95% CI=2.07-13.25), to have pulmonary cavities (OR=3.02, 95% CI=1.31-6.98), to be sputum smear positive (OR=2.90, 95% CI=1.12-7.51), and to have extension of anti-tuberculosis treatment duration (OR=2.68, 95% CI 1.17-6.14). Besides, they had a higher 2nd month sputum smear positive proportion (OR=2.97, 95% CI 1.22-7.22) and a higher 5-year recurrence rate (OR=5.87, 95% CI 1.26-27.40). CONCLUSIONS: High prevalence, severe clinical characteristics and poor outcomes of pulmonary tuberculosis patients with diabetes mellitus highlight the necessity of early bi-directional screening and co-management of these two diseases in Shanghai, China.

Epidemiology of norovirus infections among diarrhea outpatients in a diarrhea surveillance system in Shanghai, China: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Norovirus is an important cause of gastroenteritis both in children and adults. In China, few studies have been conducted on adult populations. This study aimed to determine the contribution of norovirus to gastroenteritis, characterize the features of norovirus infections, compare them with other pathogens, and test the effectiveness of the surveillance system. METHODS: A citywide surveillance network on diarrhea patients was established. Samples were collected with intervals from both children and adults among diarrhea outpatients in hospitals and tested for viruses using rRT-PCR and for bacteria in CDCs. Patient information was acquired through interviews and recorded into a dedicated online system. The Pearson χ2 test, multivariate logistic regression models and discriminant models were fitted into its comparisons with the non-norovirus group and other pathogens. RESULTS: Norovirus was detected in 22.91% of sampled diarrhea patients. The seasonal distribution of norovirus infections was different from non-norovirus patients (p<0.001), with a half-year peak. Higher proportions of males (p=0.001, OR=1.303, 95% CI=1.110-1.529), local citizens (p<0.001) and officials/clerks (p=0.001, OR=1.348, 95% CI=1.124-1.618) were affected with norovirus when compared with non-norovirus patients. Diarrhea patients affected with norovirus featured nausea (p<0.001, OR=1.418, 95% CI=1.176-1.709) and vomiting (p<0.001, OR=1.969, 95% CI=1.618-2.398), while fewer manifested fever (p=0.046, OR=0.758, 95% CI=0.577-0.996) and abdominal pain (p=0.018, OR=0.815, 95% CI=0.689-0.965). Children were more vulnerable to rotavirus (p=0.008, OR=1.637, 95% CI=1.136-2.358) and bacteria (p=0.027, OR=1.511, 95% CI=1.053-2.169) than norovirus. There was a seasonal difference between the GI and GII genotypes (p<0.001). Officials or clerks were more easily affected with GI than GII (p=0.006, OR=1.888, 95% CI=1.205-2.958). CONCLUSIONS: This study was based on a citywide hospital-sentinel surveillance system with multiple enteric pathogens included. Norovirus was recognized as the most prevalent enteric pathogen in Shanghai. The seasonal peak was from October to April. Males had a higher prevalence than females. Local citizens and officials/clerks were more vulnerable to norovirus than other pathogens. Compared with rotavirus and bacteria, children were less frequently affected by norovirus. Nausea and vomiting were typical of norovirus, whereas fever and abdominal pain were uncommon symptoms of this pathogen. GI and GII infections were centered in different seasons. Officials and clerks were more easily affected by GI than GII.

[Epidemiology of confirmed and suspected norovirus outbreaks in Shanghai, 2010-2014].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the epidemiologic characteristics of confirmed and suspected norovirus outbreaks in Shanghai during 2010-2014. METHODS: The investigation reports of confirmed and suspected norovirus outbreaks in Shanghai from 2010 to 2014 were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 80 norovirus outbreaks, involving 2 399 cases, were reported during this period, and the overall attack rate was 4.17%. The median of the outbreak duration was 4.5 days and the incidence peaked 2 days later averagely for an outbreak. The outbreaks mainly occurred in autumn and winter, 53 outbreaks occurred during October-February, accounting for 66.25%. Seventy five outbreaks occurred in schools, child care settings and nursing houses, accounting for 93.75%. The attack rates in hospitalized patients and the elders in nursing houses were higher than those in pre-school and school aged children, the differences were statistically significant (χ² =683.12, P<0.01). The attack rates in medical staff and nurses in hospitals and nursing houses or staff in pre-schools and schools were lower. Vomiting, the main clinical symptom, occurred in 1 900 cases (79.20%), diarrhea and fever developed in 694 cases (28.93% ) and 364 cases (15.17% ) respectively. The differences were statistically significant (χ² =2 251.48, P<0.01). The outbreaks were mainly caused by short common exposures and contact with cases. CONCLUSION: The surveillance for norovirus infection should be strengthened in hospitals, schools and others with the crowed during autumn-winter. The protection of risk population should be enhanced.

Predictors of poor response after primary immunization of hepatitis B vaccines for infants and antibody seroprotection of booster in a metropolis of China.

To evaluate proportion and predictors of poor response in infants and appraise booster seroprotection, we surveyed 2047 infants in Shanghai and detected antibody to hepatitis B (HB) surface antigen (anti-HBs). Poor responders were randomized into 2 groups, given booster with 5 µg and 10 µg hepatitis B vaccine (HepB), respectively. Proportion of infants with titer <10 mIU/mL and 10 to 99 mIU/mL was 1.86% and 15.14%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression suggested infants of male, aged 13 to 18 months, premature, administered with 5 µg HepB or mother positive for HB surface antigen (HBsAg) and HBe antigen (HBeAg) would more likely develop worse response. Difference of geometric mean concentration between the first and full booster was not statistically significant both for 5 µg and for 10 µg HepB groups. The seroprotective rate were higher for infants with 10 µg HepB than those with 5 µg HepB (P > .05). Therefore, it is concluded that booster for poor vaccinees with 10 µg HepB could achieve satisfactory seroprotection.

Estimation of the direct cost of treating people aged more than 60 years infected by influenza virus in Shanghai.

BACKGROUND: Influenza is a common, vaccine preventable, viral respiratory infection with potentially serious consequences in persons aged 60 years and above. In China, influenza vaccination is recommended but not reimbursed for people. Therefore, we studied management of influenza episode, healthcare resource use and costs associated with influenza infection in people aged over 60 in Shanghai. METHODS: A prospective, observational study was conducted over the 2008-2009 influenza season. Persons aged 60 years and above presenting to a study center with acute onset of influenza-like illness (ILI) were enrolled and tested by PCR for influenza virus. Laboratory confirmed influenza (LCI) patients were visited 2 weeks later for detail information. RESULTS: From January 2009 to December 2009, 1,946 subjects were recruited. Among them 1,777 patients met the inclusion criteria, 395 (22.2%) tested positive. 341 (86%) patients received ambulatory care only while 54 (14%) were hospitalized. Most patients had been prescribed at least one medication (94%), and had had at least one laboratory test (92%). An outpatient cost a mean of USD 47 per case. Once hospitalized, the average length of stay was 17.0 days (SD = 13.82) and the mean total inpatient cost reached USD 1,601. The public health insurance paid 69% and 79% of the mean outpatient and inpatient costs per patient respectively. CONCLUSION: This study described the management of a LCI case in people aged more than 60 years in Shanghai and estimated the economic burden in particular from the public healthcare system perspective, showing expensive consequences among hospitalized patients.

[Genetic characterization of the isolates of measles viruses in Hongkou district of Shanghai, China in 2012].

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain the genotype of measles viruses isolated in 2012 and genetic characterization of measles viruses in Hongkou district of Shanghai during 2000-2012. METHODS: Measles virus was isolated from throat swab specimens collected from suspected measles cases and 450 bp fragment of C terminus on nucleoprotein (N) gene was amplified by RT-PCR. Sequence analysis was conducted to ascertain the genotype and to compare the difference of nucleotide with other measles virus strain announced by GenBank during 2000-2012. Measles virus genotype was analyzed. Epidemiological investigation was conducted. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analysis showed that 7 measles virus samples were isolated from 34 throat swab specimens with 6 of them belonged to H1 genotype, 1 belonged to D8 genotype of H1 genotype. H1a appeared the main part of Shanghai measles virus. Epidemiological survey showed that D8 was an imported case, also the first case detected since 2000. CONCLUSION: The genotype distribution of measles virus in Hongkou was identified the same as elsewhere in Shanghai. D8 was an imported case, detected for the first time since 2000. The results suggested that viral gene sequencing and genotyping should be regularly conducted at the measles laboratories in Shanghai to strengthen the networking monitoring program of the disease.

Anti-tuberculosis drug-induced liver injury in Shanghai: validation of Hy's Law.

INTRODUCTION: The most reliable liver safety signal in a clinical trial is considered to be 'Hy's Law cases' defined as subjects experiencing hepatocellular injury and serum bilirubin elevations with no more likely cause than study drug. However, there is little published data to support the current biochemical criteria for Hy's Law cases or their use to estimate postmarketing risk of severe liver injury. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this study was to identify and characterize Hy's Law cases in patients treated for tuberculosis (TB). A secondary objective was to identify patient risk factors for drug-induced liver injuries. METHODS: We utilized eDISH (evaluation of Drug-Induced Serious Hepatoxicity) to retrospectively analyze data from 517 patients treated for activeTB, a regimen well known to be capable of causing severe hepatotoxicity. RESULTS: We identified two Hy's Law cases, which is consistent with the treatment's known risk of liver failure. Despite monthly monitoring, neither Hy's Law case experienced a documented elevation in serum alanine aminotransferase exceeding 10 × upper limits of normal. Hepatoprotectant use and infection with chronic hepatitis B were associated with increased risk of liver injury. CONCLUSIONS: Our observations support the current biochemical criteria for Hy's Law cases and their use to estimate postmarketing risk.

[Study on the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of scarlet fever in Shanghai, 2005-2012].

OBJECTIVE: To systemically analyze the epidemiological characteristics, molecular markers of circulating group A Streptococcus (GAS) isolates and the incidence trend of scarlet fever in Shanghai from 2005 to 2012 as well as to explore the practice of GAS isolates surveillance program and the combined mathematical model in the early warning of scarlet fever. METHODS: The morbidity series of scarlet fever were retrieved to analyze and fit the combined mathematical model which comprised an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a neural network. GAS isolates surveillances programs were implemented on community healthy population, using the emm typing and superantigens detecting method in Shanghai during the epidemic period of scarlet fever in 2008, 2010 and 2012. The standardized prevalence of GAS isolates was estimated with the demographic data. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2012, there were a total of 9410 scarlet fever cases reported in Shanghai including local registered residents and immigrant population, showing that the distribution of patients as sporadic. The morbidity kept rising with seasonal and periodical variations and the peak was in 2011. The average morbidity was 6.012 per 100 000 persons. Morbidity in the the suburban was significantly higher than that in the urban areas. Children at 4 to 8 years old were easy to be involved. The mean error rate of single ARIMA model,ARIMA-GRNN and back propagation artificial neural network combined model were 0.268, 0.432 and 0.131 respectively. The predicted incidence of scarlet fever in 2013 would keep fluctuating within a narrow range from 0.446 to 3.467 per 100 000 persons. A total number of 4409 throat swab samples were collected through the GAS isolates surveillance programs in 2008, 2010 and 2012. The standardized prevalence of GAS isolates in each year were 0.000%, 0.000% and 1.092%. 18 GAS isolates were identified and 15 isolates (83.33%)belonged to emm 12.0. CONCLUSION: The morbidity of scarlet fever would continue to maintain an upward trend in Shanghai and the techniques used in GAS isolates surveillance program and in the combined mathematical model could be applied for the early warning system on scarlet fever.

The development of a combined mathematical model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai, China.

BACKGROUND: Sporadic hepatitis E has become an important public health concern in China. Accurate forecasting of the incidence of hepatitis E is needed to better plan future medical needs. Few mathematical models can be used because hepatitis E morbidity data has both linear and nonlinear patterns. We developed a combined mathematical model using an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and a back propagation neural network (BPNN) to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E. METHODS: The morbidity data of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2000 to 2012 were retrieved from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The ARIMA-BPNN combined model was trained with 144 months of morbidity data from January 2000 to December 2011, validated with 12 months of data January 2012 to December 2012, and then employed to forecast hepatitis E incidence January 2013 to December 2013 in Shanghai. Residual analysis, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and stationary R square methods were used to compare the goodness-of-fit among ARIMA models. The Bayesian regularization back-propagation algorithm was used to train the network. The mean error rate (MER) was used to assess the validity of the combined model. RESULTS: A total of 7,489 hepatitis E cases was reported in Shanghai from 2000 to 2012. Goodness-of-fit (stationary R2=0.531, BIC= -4.768, Ljung-Box Q statistics=15.59, P=0.482) and parameter estimates were used to determine the best-fitting model as ARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12. Predicted morbidity values in 2012 from best-fitting ARIMA model and actual morbidity data from 2000 to 2011 were used to further construct the combined model. The MER of the ARIMA model and the ARIMA-BPNN combined model were 0.250 and 0.176, respectively. The forecasted incidence of hepatitis E in 2013 was 0.095 to 0.372 per 100,000 population. There was a seasonal variation with a peak during January-March and a nadir during August-October. CONCLUSIONS: Time series analysis suggested a seasonal pattern of hepatitis E morbidity in Shanghai, China. An ARIMA-BPNN combined model was used to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time series data, and accurately forecast hepatitis E infections.

A reported death case of a novel bunyavirus in Shanghai, China.

This paper describes the first case of infection with a recently described novel bunyavirus, severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV), in Shanghai, China. The case is originally from Chizhou City, Anhui province within an endemic area for SFTSV. We describe the etiology, epidemiological characteristics, clinical diagnosis and treatment of this fatal case. This case is unique because major cause of death was renal failure, whereas other reported cases have been due to hemorrhage. The investigation and response to this case provides meaningful insight for the early and rapid diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus in non-endemic regions in China and globally.

[Study and application of transmission tracking analysis technique during incubation period of respiratory infectious diseases].

OBJECTIVE: To develop a new transmission tracking analysis technique during incubation period of respiratory infectious diseases, and to discuss its practical value in the field survey of infectious diseases. METHODS: The classical epidemiological theory was integrated with geographic information system. The transmission tracking analysis technique was established based on the modeling platform ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit 9.3, using the techniques of address matching, shortest path analysis and buffer analysis, and programming by Visual C++. Eight serious sever acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Shanghai in year 2003 were then chose as prototype to set up the test cases A-H. The electronic map and population density data were separately collected from Institute of Surveying and Mapping in Shanghai and Shanghai statistical yearbook 2003, to calculate and explore the parameters as length of transmission path, area of buffer zone and key departments by single and multi case analysis module. RESULTS: The single case transmission tracking analysis showed that the length of transmission track of case A was 129.89 km during April 25th to 29th in 2003, including 12 tracing point and 108 intimate contacts, and the total area of buffer zone was 7.11 km(2) including 81 important institutes, naming 72 schools, 6 kindergartens and 3 gerocomiums. The multi-case transmission tracking analysis showed that the 8 cases shared 5 tracks without any temporal communication. However, there was a spatial communication whose length was 1.42 km and area was 0.60 km(2). There were no important institutes found in this communication area. CONCLUSION: Transmission tracking technique is practicable and efficient to trace the source of infection, analyze the transmission tracks, establish the isolation buffer area and explore the important geographic positions in epidemiological investigation.