Immunogenicity and safety of Sinovac-CoronaVac booster vaccinations in 12-17- year-olds with clinically significant reactions from Pfizer-BNT162b2 vaccination.

Heterologous Sinovac-CoronaVac booster(s) in 12-17-year-olds who had a moderate/severe reaction to Pfizer-BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was found to safe with no serious adverse events reported. In those primed with 1 dose of Pfizer-BNT162b2 vaccine, subsequent boosters with 2 doses of Sinovac-CoronaVac vaccines achieved neutralizing antibody levels which were comparable to those who had received 2 doses of Pfizer-BNT162b2 vaccines followed by 1 dose of Sinovac-CoronaVac vaccination. Adolescents with 1 Pfizer-BNT162b2 followed by 2 Sinovac-CoronaVac vaccines developed T-cell responses against broad peptides including membrane, nucleoprotein 1 and 2 but levels were highest for Spike protein and lasted until day 150 post-vaccination.

Estimation of trajectory of protective efficacy in infectious disease prevention trials using recurrent event times.

In studies of infectious disease prevention, the level of protective efficacy of medicinal products such as vaccines and prophylactic drugs tends to vary over time. Many products require administration of multiple doses at scheduled times, as opposed to one-off or continual intervention. Accurate information on the trajectory of the level of protective efficacy over time facilitates informed clinical recommendations and implementation strategies, for example, with respect to the timing of administration of the doses. Based on concepts from pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling, we propose a non-linear function for modeling the trajectory after each dose. The cumulative effect of multiple doses of the products is captured by an additive series of the function. The model has the advantages of parsimony and interpretability, while remaining flexible in capturing features of the trajectories. We incorporate this series into the Andersen-Gill model for analysis of recurrent event time data and compare it with alternative parametric and non-parametric functions. We use data on clinical malaria disease episodes from a trial of four doses of an anti-malarial drug combination for chemoprevention to illustrate, and evaluate the performance of the methods using simulation. The proposed method out-performed the alternatives in the analysis of real data in terms of Akaike and Bayesian Information Criterion. It also accurately captured the features of the protective efficacy trajectory such as the area under curve in simulations. The proposed method has strong potential to enhance the evaluation of disease prevention measures and improve their implementation strategies.

Remdesivir therapy for severe pediatric COVID-19 in Singapore: A single-center retrospective observational cohort study.

Background and Aims: There is a paucity of information on remdesivir (RDV) use in severe pediatric coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to explore the effectiveness of RDV as the cumulative proportion of pediatric COVID-19 patients deescalated from Day 5 of high dependency or intensive care unit (HD/ICU). Methods: All children ≤18 years admitted to Singapore's largest pediatric hospital from January 1, 2020 to March 18, 2022 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients were included if they were positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, required oxygen, and HD/ICU care. The characteristics and outcomes of those who received RDV or not (no-RDV) were compared. Results: We reviewed 15 children with a median age of 2.5 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 0.8-11.0), of which 7 (46.7%) received RDV. There was no difference in cumulative proportion of children deescalated from Day 5 of HD/ICU care in the RDV versus the no-RDV group (5/7, 70% vs. 7/8, 87.5%, p = 0.57). The RDV versus no-RDV group had higher disease severity, that is, WHO Ordinal Scale scores (median 6, IQR: 5-7 vs. 5, IQR: 4-5, p = 0.03), higher procalcitonin levels (ug/L) (median 4.31, IQR: 0.8-24.2 vs. 0.12, IQR: 0.09-0.26, p = 0.02), and longer HD/ICU care days (median 5, IQR: 4-9, vs. 1, IQR: 1-4, p = 0.01). There was no significant difference in hospitalization days. There were no adverse events directly attributable to RDV. None died from COVID-19 infection. Conclusion: Our observational analysis was unable to detect any clear benefit of RDV in terms of reducing duration in HD/ICU. RDV was well-tolerated in children with severe COVID-19.

mRNA SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Before vs During Pregnancy and Omicron Infection Among Infants.

Importance: Infants younger than 6 months are at risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data are lacking on the optimum timing for maternal vaccination and estimated effectiveness against Omicron variants, including XBB, for infants. Objective: To investigate maternal vaccination against Omicron variants, including XBB, and the association of vaccination timing during pregnancy vs prior to pregnancy and risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection among infants aged 6 months or younger. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study was conducted between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023. Singapore's national dataset was used to study infants born at greater than 32 weeks' gestation between January 1, 2022, and September 30, 2022. The study included infants whose parents had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from the date of birth up to 6 months of age. Of 21 609 infants born during this period, 7292 (33.7%) had at least 1 parent infected with SARS-CoV-2 before the age of 7 months. Statistical analysis was performed from April to July 2023. Exposure: Infants' mothers were unvaccinated, vaccinated prior to pregnancy, or vaccinated with a messenger RNA (mRNA) SARS-CoV-2 vaccine during pregnancy. Main Outcome and Measure: Infants were considered infected if they had a positive polymerase chain reaction test. Results: Among 7292 infants included in this study, 4522 (62.0%) had mothers who were Chinese, 527 (7.2%) had mothers who were Indian, 2007 (27.5%) had mothers who were Malay, and 236 (3.2%) had mothers who were other ethnicity; 6809 infants (93.4%) were born at full term, and 1272 infants (17.4%) were infected during the study period. There were 7120 infants (97.6%) born to mothers who had been fully vaccinated or boosted as of 14 days prior to delivery. The crude incidence rate was 174.3 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were unvaccinated, 122.2 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were vaccinated before pregnancy, and 128.5 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were vaccinated during pregnancy. The estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 41.5% (95% CI, 22.8% to 55.7%) among infants born to mothers vaccinated during pregnancy. Infants of mothers who received vaccination prior to pregnancy did not have a lower risk for infection (estimated VE, 15.4% [95% CI, -17.6% to 39.1%]). A lower risk for Omicron XBB infection was only observed among mothers vaccinated with the third (booster) dose antenatally (estimated VE, 76.7% [95% CI, 12.8% to 93.8%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study, maternal mRNA vaccination was associated with a lower risk of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection among infants up to 6 months of age only if the vaccine was given during the antenatal period. These findings suggest that mRNA vaccination during pregnancy may be needed for lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among newborns.

BNT162b2 vaccine induced variant-specific immunity, safety and risk of Omicron breakthrough infection in children aged 5 to 11 years: a cohort study.

There is little information on BNT162b2 vaccine-induced variant-specific immunogenicity, safety data and dynamics of breakthrough infections in pediatric populations. We addressed these questions using a prospective two dose BNT162b2 (10 mcg) vaccination cohort study of healthy children 5-11 years in Singapore. Follow up included blood samples at scheduled visits, daily vaccination symptom diary and confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT) and spike-specific T cell responses against SARS-CoV-2 variants were performed. The mean age of 127 participants was 8.27 years (SD 1.95) and 51.2% were males. The median sVNT level against original variant after 1 dose and 2 dose vaccination was 61.4% and 95.1% respectively (p < 0.0001). Neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant was the lowest, median 22.4% (IQR 16.5-30.8). However, T cell IFN-γ cytokine response against Omicron variant was high and remained so about 4 months after vaccination. Fever rate increased significantly from 4% (dose 1) to 11.5% (dose 2). The risk of Omicron breakthrough infection decreased by 7.8% for every 1% increase in sVNT inhibition level measured after dose 2 vaccination. BNT162b2 vaccines were safe, induced good T cell responses but poor neutralizing antibodies against Omicron in children. Low neutralizing antibody levels post-vaccination was predictive of subsequent breakthrough infection.

Effectiveness of Monovalent mRNA Vaccines Against Omicron XBB Infection in Singaporean Children Younger Than 5 Years.

Importance: Literature on vaccine effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines for children younger than 5 years is limited. Objective: To report the effectiveness of monovalent mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection among Singaporean children aged 1 through 4 years during a COVID-19 pandemic wave of the Omicron XBB variant. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a population-based cohort study, conducted over a 6-month study period from October 1, 2022, through March 31, 2023, after the implementation of community vaccination among all Singaporean children aged 1 through 4 years. The study period was dominated by the Omicron XBB subvariant. Exposure: Receipt of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. Main Outcome Measure: Vaccine effectiveness against confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for confirmed infections using Poisson regression was reported, with the reference group being those who were unvaccinated. Analyses were stratified by prior documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: A total of 121 628 children (median [IQR] age, 3.1 [2.2-3.9] years; 61 925 male [50.9%]) were included in the study, contributing 21 015 956 person-days of observation. The majority of children (11 294 of 11 705 [96.5%]) received the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine (Moderna). Vaccine effectiveness against confirmed infection was 45.2% (95% CI, 24.7%-60.2%) in partially vaccinated, infection-naive children and 63.3% (95% CI, 40.6%-77.3%) in fully vaccinated, infection-naive children compared with the unvaccinated group. Among previously infected children, vaccine effectiveness against reinfections in those with at least 1 vaccine dose was estimated at 74.6% (95% CI, 38.7%-89.5%). Conclusions and Relevance: Study results suggest that completion of a primary mRNA vaccine series provided protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in children aged 1 through 4 years. Although incidence of hospitalization and severe illness is low in this age group, there is potential benefit of vaccination in preventing infection and potential sequelae.

BNT162b2 vaccine protection against omicron and effect of previous infection variant and vaccination sequence among children and adolescents in Singapore: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Information on variant-specific vaccine protection and the effect of previous infection variant is scarce in children. We aimed to ascertain the level of protection conferred by BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination against omicron variant infection (BA.4 or BA.5, and XBB) in a previously infected national paediatric cohort. We also explored the association between sequence of previous infection (variant) and vaccination on protection. METHODS: We did a retrospective, population-based cohort study using the national databases of all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections, vaccines administered, and demographic records maintained by the Ministry of Health, Singapore. The study cohort consisted of children aged 5-11 years and adolescents aged 12-17 years who had a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 15, 2022. People who were infected during the pre-delta period or were immunocompromised (received three vaccination doses [children 5-11 years old] and four vaccinations doses [adolescents 12-17 years old]) were excluded. Those who had multiple episodes of infection before the study start date, were not vaccinated before infection but completed three doses, received bivalent mRNA vaccine, or received non-mRNA vaccine doses were also excluded. All SARS-CoV-2 infections confirmed by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction or rapid antigen testing were grouped into delta, BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 or BA.5, or XBB variants using a combination of whole-genome sequencing, S-gene target failure results, and imputation. For BA.4 or BA.5, the study outcome period was June 1-Sept 30, 2022, and for XBB variants the outcome period was Oct 18-Dec 15, 2022. Incidence rate ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated were derived using adjusted Poisson regressions and vaccine effectiveness was estimated as (1-risk ratio) × 100%. FINDINGS: 135 197 people aged 5-17 years (79 332 children and 55 865 adolescents) were included in the cohort for the vaccine effectiveness analysis against omicron BA.4 or BA.5, and 164 704 people aged 5-17 years (97 235 children and 67 469 adolescents) were included for the analysis against omicron XBB. Approximately 47% of participants were female and 53% were male. Among those previously infected, vaccine effectiveness against BA.4 or BA.5 infection in fully vaccinated children (two doses) was 74·0% (95% CI 67·7-79·1) and in adolescents (three doses) was 85·7% (80·2-89·6). Against XBB, protection conferred with full vaccination was lower at 62·8% (95% CI 42·3-76·0) in children and 47·9% (20·2-66·1) in adolescents. In children, receipt of two-dose vaccination before first SARS-CoV-2 infection provided them with the highest protection against subsequent BA.4 or BA.5 infection at 85·3% (95% CI 80·2-89·1); however, this was not shown to be the case for adolescents. First infection variant had an effect on vaccine effectiveness against omicron BA.4 or BA.5 reinfection in the following descending order: BA.2 conferred the highest protection (92·3% [95% CI 88·9-94·7] in children and 96·4% [93·5-98·0] in adolescents) followed by BA.1 (81·9% [75·9-86·4] in children and 95·0% [91·6-97·0] in adolescents), and delta which conferred the lowest protection (51·9% [5·3-75·6] in children and 77·5% [63·9-86·0] in adolescents). INTERPRETATION: In previously infected children and adolescents, BNT162b2 vaccination provided additional protection against omicron BA.4 or BA.5 and XBB variants compared with those who remained unvaccinated. Hybrid immunity against XBB was lower than against BA.4 or BA.5, especially in adolescents. Early vaccination of previously uninfected children before their first SARS-CoV-2 exposure could potentially strengthen population immunity resilience against future variants. FUNDING: None.

Paediatric actinomycosis: A 16-year, single-institution retrospective review of cases.

AIM: Actinomycosis is a rare subacute to chronic granulomatous infection which can mimic other infectious or malignant diseases. This study examined the epidemiology and treatment outcome of actinomycosis in children. METHODS: A retrospective study on children admitted for actinomycosis in a tertiary paediatric hospital in Singapore, from January 2004 to December 2020. Clinical profile, therapeutic interventions and outcomes were examined. RESULTS: A total of 10 patients were identified; 7 were female. The median age at first presentation was 9.8 years (range 4.7-15.7). The most common presenting symptom was fever (n = 6, 60%), followed by facial or neck swelling (n = 3, 30%) and ear pain (n = 3, 30%). Actinomycosis occurred predominantly in the orocervicofacial region (n = 6, 60%). Four patients (40%) had preceding dental infections in the form of dental caries or gingivitis. One patient had poorly controlled insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. Actinomycosis was confirmed via culture in four patients, histopathology in four patients and both methods in two patients. All except one patient (n = 9, 90%) underwent surgical procedures. All patients received ampicillin or amoxicillin/clavulanate or other beta-lactams, for a median duration of 6.5 months (range 1.5-14). Complications included osteomyelitis (n = 4, 40%), mastoiditis (n = 2, 20%), brain abscess (n = 1, 10%) and recurrent neck abscess (n = 1, 10%). There was no mortality and all patients achieved complete resolution. CONCLUSIONS: Paediatric actinomycosis was rare in our 16-year review, but had a high complication rate. It can occur in immunocompetent patients, and dental infection was the predominant risk factor identified. Prognosis was excellent after surgical intervention and appropriate antimicrobial therapy.

Combating a resurgence of poliomyelitis through public health surveillance and vaccination.

Poliomyelitis, or polio, is a highly infectious disease and can result in permanent flaccid paralysis of the limbs. Singapore was certified polio-free by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 29 October 2000, together with 36 other countries in the Western Pacific Region. The last imported case of polio in Singapore was in 2006. Fortunately, polio is vaccine-preventable-the world saw the global eradication of wild poliovirus types 2 and 3 achieved in 2015 and 2019, respectively. However, in late 2022, a resurgence of paralytic polio cases from vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) was detected in countries like Israel and the US (specifically, New York); VDPV was also detected during routine sewage water surveillance with no paralysis cases in London, UK. Without global eradication, there is a risk of re-infection from importation and spread of wild poliovirus or VDPV, or new emergence and circulation of VDPV. During the COVID-19 pandemic, worldwide routine childhood vaccination coverage fell by 5% to 81% in 2020-2021. Fortunately, Singapore has maintained a constantly high vaccination coverage of 96% among 1-year-old children as recorded in 2021. All countries must ensure high poliovirus vaccination coverage in their population to eradicate poliovirus globally, and appropriate interventions must be taken to rectify this if the coverage falters. In 2020, WHO approved the emergency use listing of a novel oral polio vaccine type 2 for countries experiencing circulating VDPV type 2 outbreaks. Environmental and wastewater surveillance should be implemented to allow early detection of "silent" poliovirus transmission in the population, instead of relying on clinical surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis based on case definition alone.

SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid tests and universal screening for COVID-19 Omicron variant among hospitalized children.

BACKGROUND: Clinical utility of universal antigen rapid test (ART) in the pediatric setting is unknown. We aimed to assess the performance and utility of universal ART in hospitalized children (≥5-year-old) to prevent nosocomial COVID-19 transmission. METHODS: Cross-sectional study involving all hospitalized pediatric patients aged ≥5-year-old from 2 periods during Omicron wave. Clinical data, ART and polymerase chain reaction test results were collected. RESULTS: A total of 444 patients were included from the 2 study periods, and 416 patients (93.7%) had concordant results between ART and polymerase chain reaction. The overall sensitivity and specificity of ART were 83.3% (95% CI: 75.2-89.3) and 97.5% (95% CI: 95.0-98.8), respectively. Negative predictive values of ART between the Omicron emergence and Omicron peak periods for a probable case group were 71.4% and 66.7%, respectively, and for a suspect case group 91.4% and 75.0%, respectively. Negative predictive values for an unlikely case group was >95% in both periods. Positive predictive value of ART was >85% for probable and suspect case groups in both periods. Seventy-five percent of patients (n = 15) who were incorrectly classified as SARS-CoV-2 negative by ART had potentially viable virus. No large nosocomial transmission clusters were detected. CONCLUSIONS: Universal ART screening may limit nosocomial outbreaks in hospitalized children. The performance can be optimized by considering clinical symptoms, exposure and periods within COVID waves.

Modelling non-linear patterns of time-varying intervention effects on recurrent events in infectious disease prevention studies.

Protective efficacy of vaccines and pharmaceutical products for prevention of infectious diseases usually vary over time. Information on the trajectory of the level of protection is valuable. We consider a parsimonious, non-linear and non-monotonic function for modelling time-varying intervention effects and compare it with several alternatives. The cumulative effects of multiple doses of intervention over time can be captured by an additive series of the function. We apply it to the Andersen-Gill model for analysis of recurrent time-to-event data. We re-analyze data from a trial of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria to illustrate and evaluate the method by simulation.

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a rare inflammatory syndrome with multisystem involvement affecting children exposed to COVID-19. This condition is rarely reported in East Asia and was not detected in Singapore until 2021. We present 12 cases of MIS-C diagnosed in KK Women's and Children's Hospital (KKH) from October 2021 to December 2021. METHOD: We conducted an observational study on cases fulfilling the Singapore Ministry of Health criteria for MIS-C from January 2020 to December 2021 in KKH. Medical records were reviewed to obtain information on clinical presentation, disease course, treatment received and outcomes. RESULTS: In the 12 cases detected, the median age was 7.50 years (interquartile range 4.00-9.25); 8 were male. All patients had mucocutaneous symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease. Other commonly involved systems were: haematological (coagulopathy 100%, lymphopaenia 91.70% and thrombocytopaenia 75.00%), gastrointestinal (75.00%) and cardiovascular (83.30%). Six patients (50.00%) had shock and were admitted to the intensive care unit. The majority of patients received treatment within 2 days of hospitalisation with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) and steroids. All survived; the majority had normal echocardiograms and no long-term organ sequelae at 6 months post-discharge. CONCLUSION: MIS-C emerged in Singapore as the incidence of COVID-19 in the community increased in 2021. The clinical presentation of our patients is similar to earlier reports, with some significant differences from Kawasaki disease. Multidisciplinary management, timely diagnosis, and early initiation of treatment with IVIg and steroids likely contributed to comparatively good outcomes. Our cases highlight the need for continued awareness of MIS-C among physicians, and surveillance of its incidence, short- and long-term outcomes.

Effectiveness of maternal pertussis vaccination in Singapore: A test-negative case-control study.

Pertussis vaccination (Tdap -Tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis) for pregnant women has been recommended since November 2017 in Singapore. In this prospective test-negative case-control study from 2018 to 2019, we aimed to evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against pertussis infection and pertussis-related intensive care unit (ICU) admission according to Tdap (Tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis) during pregnancy and/or infant pertussis vaccination. A total of 58 children (26 cases, 32 controls) were recruited with 4 ICU admissions. The median age was 3 months (interquartile range [IQR] 1.50-4.56 months). Overall, 25.9 % of mothers had received antenatal Tdap vaccination and 43.1 % of infants received pertussis vaccination, majority only 1 dose. Tdap in pregnancy alone without infant vaccine or with 0-1 infant dose had a VE of 97.62 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 53.25-99.88 %), 98.17 % (95 %CI 66.61-99.9 %) respectively, against pertussis infection and 71.9 % (95 %CI 0.0-98.64), 75.86 % (95 % CI 0.0-98.78) respectively, against ICU admissions. Conclusion: Maternal Tdap vaccination was highly protective against infant pertussis and should be routinely recommended for all pregnant women.

Development and validation of a clinical predictive model for severe and critical pediatric COVID-19 infection.

INTRODUCTION: Children infected with COVID-19 are susceptible to severe manifestations. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for severe/ critical pediatric COVID-19 infection utilizing routinely available hospital level data to ascertain the likelihood of developing severe manifestations. METHODS: The predictive model was based on an analysis of registry data from COVID-19 positive patients admitted to five tertiary pediatric hospitals across Asia [Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia (two centers) and Pakistan]. Independent predictors of severe/critical COVID-19 infection were determined using multivariable logistic regression. A training cohort (n = 802, 70%) was used to develop the prediction model which was then validated in a test cohort (n = 345, 30%). The discriminative ability and performance of this model was assessed by calculating the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from final Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (ROC). RESULTS: A total of 1147 patients were included in this analysis. In the multivariable model, infant age group, presence of comorbidities, fever, vomiting, seizures and higher absolute neutrophil count were associated with an increased risk of developing severe/critical COVID-19 infection. The presence of coryza at presentation, higher hemoglobin and platelet count were associated with a decreased risk of severe/critical COVID-19 infection. The AUC (95%CI) generated for this model from the training and validation cohort were 0.96 (0.94, 0.98) and 0.92 (0.86, 0.97), respectively. CONCLUSION: This predictive model using clinical history and commonly used laboratory values was valuable in estimating the risk of developing a severe/critical COVID-19 infection in hospitalized children. Further validation is needed to provide more insights into its utility in clinical practice.

Analysis of Neutralizing Antibody Levels in Children and Adolescents Up to 16 Months After SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

This cohort study assesses the presence of neutralizing antibodies in the serum samples of children in different age groups during and after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in children younger than 5 years in 2019: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infection in young children. We previously estimated that in 2015, 33·1 million episodes of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection occurred in children aged 0-60 months, resulting in a total of 118 200 deaths worldwide. Since then, several community surveillance studies have been done to obtain a more precise estimation of RSV associated community deaths. We aimed to update RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality at global, regional, and national levels in children aged 0-60 months for 2019, with focus on overall mortality and narrower infant age groups that are targeted by RSV prophylactics in development. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, we expanded our global RSV disease burden dataset by obtaining new data from an updated search for papers published between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2020, from MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Web of Science, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, Wanfang, and ChongqingVIP. We also included unpublished data from RSV GEN collaborators. Eligible studies reported data for children aged 0-60 months with RSV as primary infection with acute lower respiratory infection in community settings, or acute lower respiratory infection necessitating hospital admission; reported data for at least 12 consecutive months, except for in-hospital case fatality ratio (CFR) or for where RSV seasonality is well-defined; and reported incidence rate, hospital admission rate, RSV positive proportion in acute lower respiratory infection hospital admission, or in-hospital CFR. Studies were excluded if case definition was not clearly defined or not consistently applied, RSV infection was not laboratory confirmed or based on serology alone, or if the report included fewer than 50 cases of acute lower respiratory infection. We applied a generalised linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) to estimate RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence, hospital admission, and in-hospital mortality both globally and regionally (by country development status and by World Bank Income Classification) in 2019. We estimated country-level RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection incidence through a risk-factor based model. We developed new models (through GLMM) that incorporated the latest RSV community mortality data for estimating overall RSV mortality. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021252400). FINDINGS: In addition to 317 studies included in our previous review, we identified and included 113 new eligible studies and unpublished data from 51 studies, for a total of 481 studies. We estimated that globally in 2019, there were 33·0 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 25·4-44·6 million), 3·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (2·9-4·6 million), 26 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (15 100-49 100), and 101 400 RSV-attributable overall deaths (84 500-125 200) in children aged 0-60 months. In infants aged 0-6 months, we estimated that there were 6·6 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes (4·6-9·7 million), 1·4 million RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection hospital admissions (1·0-2·0 million), 13 300 RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital deaths (6800-28 100), and 45 700 RSV-attributable overall deaths (38 400-55 900). 2·0% of deaths in children aged 0-60 months (UR 1·6-2·4) and 3·6% of deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months (3·0-4·4) were attributable to RSV. More than 95% of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection episodes and more than 97% of RSV-attributable deaths across all age bands were in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). INTERPRETATION: RSV contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality burden globally in children aged 0-60 months, especially during the first 6 months of life and in LMICs. We highlight the striking overall mortality burden of RSV disease worldwide, with one in every 50 deaths in children aged 0-60 months and one in every 28 deaths in children aged 28 days to 6 months attributable to RSV. For every RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in-hospital death, we estimate approximately three more deaths attributable to RSV in the community. RSV passive immunisation programmes targeting protection during the first 6 months of life could have a substantial effect on reducing RSV disease burden, although more data are needed to understand the implications of the potential age-shifts in peak RSV burden to older age when these are implemented. FUNDING: EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).

A country-specific model of COVID-19 vaccination coverage needed for herd immunity in adult only or population wide vaccination programme.

We present a country specific method to calculate the COVID-19 vaccination coverage needed for herd immunity by considering age structure, age group-specific contact patterns, relative infectivity and susceptibility of children to adults, vaccination effectiveness and seroprevalence prior to vaccination. We find that across all six countries, vaccination of adults age 60 and above has little impact on Reff and this is could be due to the smaller number of contacts between this age group and the rest of the population according to the contact matrices used. If R0 is above 6, herd immunity by vaccine alone is unattainable for most countries either if vaccination is only available for adults or that vaccine effectiveness is lower at 65% against symptomatic infections. In this situation, additional control measures, booster shots, if they improve protection against infection, or the extension of vaccination to children, are required. For a highly transmissible variant with R0 up to 8, herd immunity is possible for all countries and for all four scenarios of varying relative infectivity and susceptibility of children compared to adults, if vaccine effectiveness is very high at 95% against symptomatic infections and that high vaccination coverage is achieved for both adults and children. In addition, we show that the effective reproduction number will vary between countries even if the same proportion of the population is vaccinated, depending on the demographics, the contact rates and the previous pre-vaccination seroprevalence in the country. This therefore means that care must be taken in extrapolating population level impacts of certain vaccine coverages from one country to another.