Prediction of mortality using quantification of renal function in acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Renal function, as quantified by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), is a predictor of death in acute heart failure (AHF). It is unknown whether one of the clinically-available serum creatinine-based formulas to calculate eGFR is superior to the others for predicting mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: We quantified renal function using five different formulas (Cockroft-Gault, MDRD-4, MDRD-6, CKD-EPI in patients<70 years, and BIS-1 in patients≥70 years) in 1104 unselected AHF patients presenting to the emergency department and enrolled in a multicenter study. Two independent cardiologists adjudicated the diagnosis of AHF. The primary endpoint was the accuracy of the five eGFR equations to predict death as quantified by the time-dependent area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC). The secondary endpoint was the accuracy to predict all-cause readmissions and readmissions due to AHF. In a median follow-up of 374 days (IQR: 221 to 687 days), 445 patients (40.3%) died. eGFR as calculated by all equations was an independent predictor of mortality. The Cockcroft-Gault formula showed the highest prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.70 versus 0.65 for MDRD-4, 0.55 for MDRD-6, and 0.67 for the combined formula CKD-EPI/BIS-1, p<0.05). These findings were confirmed in patients with varying degrees of renal function and in three vulnerable subgroups: women, patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction, and the elderly. The prognostic accuracy for readmission was poor for all equations, with an AUC around 0.5. CONCLUSIONS: Calculating eGFR using the Cockcroft-Gault formula assesses the risk of mortality in patients with AHF more accurately than other commonly used formulas.

Plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin for the prediction of acute kidney injury in acute heart failure.

INTRODUCTION: The accurate prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) is an unmet clinical need. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a novel sensitive and specific marker of AKI. METHODS: A total of 207 consecutive patients presenting to the emergency department with AHF were enrolled. Plasma NGAL was measured in a blinded fashion at presentation and serially thereafter. The potential of plasma NGAL levels to predict AKI was assessed as the primary endpoint. We defined AKI according to the AKI Network classification. RESULTS: Overall 60 patients (29%) experienced AKI. These patients were more likely to suffer from pre-existing chronic cardiac or kidney disease. At presentation, creatinine (median 140 (interquartile range (IQR), 91 to 203) umol/L versus 97 (76 to 132) umol/L, P<0.01) and NGAL (114.5 (IQR, 67.1 to 201.5) ng/ml versus 74.5 (60 to 113.9) ng/ml, P<0.01) levels were significantly higher in AKI compared to non-AKI patients. The prognostic accuracy for measurements obtained at presentation, as quantified by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was mediocre and comparable for the two markers (creatinine 0.69; 95%CI 0.59 to 0.79 versus NGAL 0.67; 95%CI 0.57 to 0.77). Serial measurements of NGAL did not further increase the prognostic accuracy for AKI. Creatinine, but not NGAL, remained an independent predictor of AKI (hazard ratio (HR) 1.12; 95%CI 1.00 to 1.25; P=0.04) in multivariable regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma NGAL levels do not adequately predict AKI in patients with AHF.