How to measure premature mortality? A proposal combining "relative" and "absolute" approaches.

BACKGROUND: The concept of "premature mortality" is at the heart of many national and global health measurement and benchmarking efforts. However, despite the intuitive appeal of its underlying concept, it is far from obvious how to best operationalise it. The previous work offers at least two basic approaches: an absolute and a relative one. The former-and far more widely used- approach sets a unique age threshold (e.g. 65 years), below which deaths are defined as premature. The relative approach derives the share of premature deaths from the country-specific age distribution of deaths in the country of interest. The biggest disadvantage of the absolute approach is that of using a unique, arbitrary threshold for different mortality patterns, while the main disadvantage of the relative approach is that its estimate of premature mortality strongly depends on how the senescent deaths distribution is defined in each country. METHOD: We propose to overcome some of the downsides of the existing approaches, by combining features of both, using a hierarchical model, in which senescent deaths distribution is held constant for each country as a pivotal quantity and the premature mortality distribution is allowed to vary across countries. In this way, premature mortality estimates become more comparable across countries with similar characteristics. RESULTS: The proposed hierarchical models provide results, which appear to align with related evidence from  specific countries. In particular, we find a relatively high premature mortality for the United States and Denmark. CONCLUSIONS: While our hybrid approach overcomes some of the problems of previous measures, some issues require further research, in particular the choice of the group of countries that a given country is assigned to and the choice of the benchmarks within the groups. Hence, our proposed method, combined with further study addressing these issues, could provide a valid alternative way to measure and compare premature mortality across countries.

Anomalous left coronary artery from pulmonary artery repair: Outcomes from the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association Database.

INTRODUCTION: We sought to determine the surgical outcomes of patients with anomalous origin of the left coronary artery from the pulmonary artery (ALCAPA) enrolled in the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association (ECHSA) database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1999 to 2019, 907 patients with ALCAPA underwent surgical repair and were included in the current study. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included frequency and results of concomitant mitral valve surgery and postoperative mechanical circulatory support (MCS). RESULTS: The overall in-hospital mortality was 6% (54/907) and was significantly higher in neonates (p = .01), patients with lower body surface area (BSA) (p = .01), and those requiring postoperative MCS (p = .001). Associated mitral valve surgery was performed in 144 patients (15.9%) and was associated with longer cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) and aortic cross-clamp times (AOX) (p ≤ .0001) but was not significantly related to an increase in in-hospital mortality. Postoperative MCS was required in 66 patients (7.3%). These patients were younger (p ≤ .001), had a lower BSA (p ≤ .001), and required a longer CPB (p ≤ .001) and AOX time (p ≤ .001). CONCLUSIONS: ALCAPA repair can be achieved successfully, and with low surgical risk. Concomitant mitral valve procedures can be performed without increasing operative mortality. The use of MCS remains a valuable option, especially in younger patients.

A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality.

Premature mortality is often a neglected component of overall deaths, and the most difficult to identify. However, it is important to estimate its prevalence. Following Pearson's theory about mortality components, a definition of premature deaths and a parametric model to study its transformations are introduced. The model is a mixture of three distributions: a Half Normal for the first part of the death curve and two Skew Normals to fit the remaining pieces. One advantage of the model is the possibility of obtaining an explicit equation to compute life expectancy at birth and to break it down into mortality components. We estimated the mixture model for Sweden, France, East Germany and Czech Republic. In addition, to the well-known reduction in infant deaths, and compression and shifting trend of adult mortality, we were able to study the trend of the central part of the distribution of deaths in detail. In general, a right shift of the modal age at death for young adults is observed; in some cases, it is also accompanied by an increase in the number of deaths at these ages: in particular for France, in the last twenty years, premature mortality increases.

Surgery for Adult Patients with Congenital Heart Disease: Results from the European Database.

Adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) represent a growing population. To evaluate frequency, type and outcomes of cardiac surgery in ACHD, we gathered data from the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association Database of 20,602 adult patients (≥18 years) with a diagnosis of congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery, between January 1997 and December 2017. We demonstrated that overall surgical workload (as absolute frequencies of surgical procedures per year) for this specific subset of patients increased steadily during the study period. The most common procedural groups included septal defects repair (n = 5740, 28%), right-heart lesions repair (n = 5542, 27%) and left-heart lesions repair (n = 4566, 22%); almost one-third of the procedures were re-operations (n = 5509, 27%). When considering the year-by-year relative frequencies of the main procedural groups, we observed a variation of the surgical scenario during the last two decades, characterized by a significant increase over time for right and left-heart lesions repair (p < 0.0001, both); while a significant decrease was seen for septal defects repair (p < 0.0001) and transplant (p = 0.03). Overall hospital mortality was 3% (n = 622/20,602 patients) and was stable over time. An inverse relationship between mortality and the number of patients operated in each center (p < 0.0001) was observed.

Late management of the aortic root after repair of tetralogy of Fallot: A European multicentre study.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the indications, type, and outcomes of reoperations on the aortic root after repair of tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). METHODS: Eleven centers belonging to the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association contributed to the data collection process. We included 36 patients who underwent surgical procedures on the aortic root, including surgery on the aortic valve and ascending aorta, between January 1975 and December 2017. Original diagnoses included TOF-pulmonary stenosis (n = 18) and TOF-pulmonary atresia (n = 18). The main indications for reoperation were aortic insufficiency (n = 19, 53%), aortic insufficiency and dilatation of the ascending aorta (n = 10, 28%), aortic root dilatation (n = 4, 11%), and ascending aorta dilatation (n = 3, 8%). RESULTS: The median age at reoperation was 30.4 years (interquartile range 20.3-45.3 years), and mechanical aortic valve replacement was the most common procedure performed. Five patients died early after reoperation (14%), and larger ascending aorta diameters were associated with early mortality (P = .04). The median age at the last follow-up was 41.4 years (interquartile range 24.5-51.6 years). Late death occurred in five patients (5/31, 16%). Most survivors (15/26, 58%) were asymptomatic at the last clinical examination (New York Heart Association, NYHA class I). The remaining patients were NYHA class II (n = 7) and III (n = 3). The most common symptoms were fatigue (n = 5), dyspnea (n = 4), and exercise intolerance (n = 3). CONCLUSIONS: Reoperations on the aortic root are infrequent but may become necessary late after TOF repair. The main indications for reoperation are aortic insufficiency, either isolated or associated with a dilatation of the ascending aorta. The surgical risk at reoperation was high and the presence of ascending aorta dilation is related to higher mortality.

Arterial switch operation for transposition of the great arteries: A single-centre 32-year experience.

OBJECTIVE: Arterial switch operation (ASO) is nowadays the standard of care for neonates with D-transposition of the great arteries (D-TGA). We evaluated our early and late results with ASO for D-TGA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We collected data on 267 patients with D-TGA, either with intact ventricular septum (D-TGA/IVS; n = 182, 68%) and with other associated congenital heart malformations (complex D-TGA; n = 85, 32%) that underwent ASO between January 1987 and July 2018. RESULTS: Median age at ASO was 8 days (interquartile range [IQR], 6-12 days). Fifteen patients (5.6%) died in hospital (6/182 with D-TGA/IVS, 3.3% and 9/85 with complex D-TGA, 11%; P = 0.02). Median follow-up time was 10.2 years (IQR, 3.7-18 years). There were 2 (0.8%) late sudden deaths. Overall survival at 10 and 20 years was 94% and 93%, respectively. Thirty-five patients (14%) required either reoperations or reinterventions, mainly for right ventricular outflow tract obstruction (n = 28, 11%). Freedom from reoperation/reintervention at 10 and 20 years was 87% and 78%, respectively. All patients were in NYHA I at latest clinical examination. Six over 173 patients (3.4%) who underwent a postoperative evaluation of their coronaries presented acquired anomalies. Forty-four patients (17%) who performed a cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) have a predicted VO 2 comparable to normal peers. CONCLUSIONS: The results of ASO for D-TGA are excellent, with a fairly low mortality and reoperation/reintervention rate. Functional capacity evaluated with CPET is comparable to normal peers. Continuous follow-up for detecting asymptomatic acquired coronary artery disease is mandatory. A reassessment of competitive sport eligibility criteria for specific D-TGA patients should be considered.

Minimally invasive surgery for atrial septal defects: a 20-year experience at a single centre.

OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to evaluate the results of our 20-year experience with minimally invasive surgical approaches for closing ostium secundum atrial septal defects, focusing on clinical results, patient satisfaction and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: We included 538 patients who underwent surgical ostium secundum atrial septal defects closure with minimally invasive approaches. RESULTS: The minimally invasive approaches included right anterior minithoracotomy (n = 335, 62%), midline lower ministernotomy (135, 25%) and right lateral minithoracotomy (n = 68, 13%). Central cannulation was used in 374 patients (69%), whereas, more recently, a remote cardiopulmonary bypass with peripheral cannulation was used in 164 selected patients (31%). Median intensive care unit and postoperative hospitalization stays were 1 day [interquartile range (IQR) 1-1 day] and 5 days (IQR 5-6 days), respectively. Thirty-one patients had postoperative complications (5.8%); postcardiotomy syndrome was the most frequent complication (n = 20/538, 3.7%). Decreases in the length of postoperative hospitalization (P < 0.001) and in hospital costs (P = 0.009) were achieved over time. At a median follow-up of 12.1 years (IQR 0.6-14 years), all patients are in good clinical condition with no limitations to physical activity. The vast majority of patients (524/538 patients, 97%) were very satisfied with the result of the minimally invasive approaches (99/100 patients, 99% in the last 5 years). CONCLUSIONS: Minimally invasive approaches for closing ostium secundum atrial septal defects proved safe and effective both in children and in adults with a very high satisfaction rate for the cosmetic result. A continuous evolution of our minimally invasive approaches, with a constant quest for less invasive procedures, led us to a miniaturization of the surgical accesses, reducing hospitalization time and hospital costs.

A mortality model based on a mixture distribution function.

A new mortality model based on a mixture distribution function is proposed. We mix a half-normal distribution with a generalization of the skew-normal distribution. As a result, we get a six-parameter distribution function that has a good fit with a wide variety of mortality patterns. This mixture model is fitted to several mortality data schedules and compared with the Siler (five-parameter) and Heligman-Pollard (eight-parameter) models. Our proposal serves as a convenient compromise between the Heligman-Pollard model (which ensures a good fit with data but is often overparameterized) and the Siler model (which is more compact but fails to capture 'accident humps').

Left-Sided Reoperations After Arterial Switch Operation: A European Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: We sought to report the frequency, types, and outcomes of left-sided reoperations (LSRs) after an arterial switch operation (ASO) for patients with D-transposition of the great arteries (D-TGA) and double-outlet right ventricle (DORV) TGA-type. METHODS: Seventeen centers belonging to the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association (ECHSA) contributed to data collection. We included 111 patients who underwent LSRs after 7,951 ASOs (1.4%) between January 1975 and December 2010. Original diagnoses included D-TGA (n = 99) and DORV TGA-type (n = 12). Main indications for LSR were neoaortic valve insufficiency (n = 52 [47%]) and coronary artery problems (CAPs) (n = 21 [19%]). RESULTS: Median age at reoperation was 8.2 years (interquartile range [IQR], 2.9-14 years). Seven patients died early after LSRs (6.3%); 4 patients with D-TGA (5.9%) and 3 patients with DORV TGA-type (25%) (p = 0.02). Median age at last follow-up was 16.1 years (IQR, 9.9-21.8 years). Seventeen patients (16%) required another reoperation, which was more frequent in patients with DORV- TGA type (4 of 9 [45%]) than in patients with D-TGA (13 of 95 [14%]). Late death occurred in 4 patients (4 of 104 [3.8%]). The majority of survivors were asymptomatic at last clinical examination (84 of 100 [84%]). CONCLUSIONS: Reoperations for residual LSRs are infrequent but may become necessary late after an ASO, predominantly for neoaortic valve insufficiency and CAPs. Risk at reoperation is not negligible, and DORV TGA-type anatomy, as well as procedures on the coronary arteries, were significantly associated with a higher morbidity and a lower overall survival. Recurrent reoperations after LSRs may be required.