Capturing the implications of residential segregation for the dynamics of infectious disease transmission.

Occupational and residential segregation and other manifestations of social and economic inequity drive of racial and socioeconomic inequities in infection, severe disease, and death from a wide variety of infections including SARS-CoV-2, influenza, HIV, tuberculosis, and many others. Despite a deep and long-standing quantitative and qualitative literature on infectious disease inequity, mathematical models that give equally serious attention to the social and biological dynamics underlying infection inequity remain rare. In this paper, we develop a simple transmission model that accounts for the mechanistic relationship between residential segregation on inequity in infection outcomes. We conceptualize segregation as a high-level, fundamental social cause of infection inequity that impacts both who-contacts-whom (separation or preferential mixing) as well as the risk of infection upon exposure (vulnerability). We show that the basic reproduction number, ℛ 0 , and epidemic dynamics are sensitive to the interaction between these factors. Specifically, our analytical and simulation results and that separation alone is insufficient to explain segregation-associated differences in infection risks, and that increasing separation only results in the concentration of risk in segregated populations when it is accompanied by increasing vulnerability. Overall, this work shows why it is important to carefully consider the causal linkages and correlations between high-level social determinants - like segregation - and more-proximal transmission mechanisms when either crafting or evaluating public health policies. While the framework applied in this analysis is deliberately simple, it lays the groundwork for future, data-driven explorations of the mechanistic impact of residential segregation on infection inequities.

A Generalizable Decision-Making Framework for Selecting Onsite versus Send-out Clinical Laboratory Testing.

BACKGROUND: Laboratory networks provide services through onsite testing or through specimen transport to higher-tier laboratories. This decision is based on the interplay of testing characteristics, treatment characteristics, and epidemiological characteristics. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to develop a generalizable model using the threshold approach to medical decision making to inform test placement decisions. METHODS: We developed a decision model to compare the incremental utility of onsite versus send-out testing for clinical purposes. We then performed Monte Carlo simulations to identify the settings under which each strategy would be preferred. Tuberculosis was modeled as an exemplar. RESULTS: The most important determinants of the decision to test onsite versus send-out were the clinical utility lost due to send-out testing delays and the accuracy decrement with onsite testing. When the sensitivity decrements of onsite testing were minimal, onsite testing tended to be preferred when send-out delays reduced clinical utility by >20%. By contrast, when onsite testing incurred large reductions in sensitivity, onsite testing tended to be preferred when utility lost due to delays was >50%. The relative cost of onsite versus send-out testing affected these thresholds, particularly when testing costs were >10% of treatment costs. CONCLUSIONS: Decision makers can select onsite versus send-out testing in an evidence-based fashion using estimates of the percentage of clinical utility lost due to send-out delays and the relative accuracy of onsite versus send-out testing. This model is designed to be generalizable to a wide variety of use cases. HIGHLIGHTS: The design of laboratory networks, including the decision to place diagnostic instruments at the point-of-care or at higher tiers as accessed through specimen transport, can be informed using the threshold approach to medical decision making.The most important determinants of the decision to test onsite versus send-out were the clinical utility lost due to send-out testing delays and the accuracy decrement with onsite testing.The threshold approach to medical decision making can be used to compare point-of-care testing accuracy decrements with the lost utility of treatment due to send-out testing delays.The relative cost of onsite versus send-out testing affected these thresholds, particularly when testing costs were >10% of treatment costs.

Did the public attribute the Flint Water Crisis to racism as it was happening? Text analysis of Twitter data to examine causal attributions to racism during a public health crisis.

The Flint Water Crisis (FWC) was an avoidable public health disaster that has profoundly affected the city's residents, a majority of whom are Black. Although many scholars and journalists have called attention to the role of racism in the water crisis, little is known about the extent to which the public attributed the FWC to racism as it was unfolding. In this study, we used natural language processing to analyze nearly six million Flint-related tweets posted between April 1, 2014, and June 1, 2016. We found that key developments in the FWC corresponded to increases in the number and percentage of tweets that mentioned terms related to race and racism. Similar patterns were found for other topics hypothesized to be related to the water crisis, including water and politics. Using sentiment analysis, we found that tweets with a negative polarity score were more common in the subset of tweets that mentioned terms related to race and racism when compared to the full set of tweets. Next, we found that word pairs that included terms related to race and racism first appeared after the January 2016 state and federal emergency declarations and a corresponding increase in media coverage of the FWC. We conclude that many Twitter users connected the events of the water crisis to race and racism in real-time. Given growing evidence of negative health effects of second-hand exposure to racism, this may have implications for understanding minority health and health disparities in the US.