Warming underpins community turnover in temperate freshwater and terrestrial communities.

Rising temperatures are leading to increased prevalence of warm-affinity species in ecosystems, known as thermophilisation. However, factors influencing variation in thermophilisation rates among taxa and ecosystems, particularly freshwater communities with high diversity and high population decline, remain unclear. We analysed compositional change over time in 7123 freshwater and 6201 terrestrial, mostly temperate communities from multiple taxonomic groups. Overall, temperature change was positively linked to thermophilisation in both realms. Extirpated species had lower thermal affinities in terrestrial communities but higher affinities in freshwater communities compared to those persisting over time. Temperature change's impact on thermophilisation varied with community body size, thermal niche breadth, species richness and baseline temperature; these interactive effects were idiosyncratic in the direction and magnitude of their impacts on thermophilisation, both across realms and taxonomic groups. While our findings emphasise the challenges in predicting the consequences of temperature change across communities, conservation strategies should consider these variable responses when attempting to mitigate climate-induced biodiversity loss.

Current and past climate co-shape community-level plant species richness in the Western Siberian Arctic.

The Arctic ecosystems and their species are exposed to amplified climate warming and, in some regions, to rapidly developing economic activities. This study assesses, models, and maps the geographic patterns of community-level plant species richness in the Western Siberian Arctic and estimates the relative impact of environmental and anthropogenic factors driving these patterns. With our study, we aim at contributing toward conservation efforts for Arctic plant diversity in the Western Siberian Arctic. Western Siberian Arctic, Russia. We investigated the relative importance of environmental and anthropogenic predictors of community-level plant species richness in the Western Siberian Arctic using macroecological models trained with an extensive geobotanical dataset. We included vascular plants, mosses and lichens in our analysis, as non-vascular plants substantially contribute to species richness and ecosystem functions in the Arctic. We found that the mean community-level plant species richness in this vast Arctic region does not decrease with increasing latitude. Instead, we identified an increase in species richness from South-West to North-East, which can be well explained by environmental factors. We found that paleoclimatic factors exhibit higher explained deviance compared to contemporary climate predictors, potentially indicating a lasting impact of ancient climate on tundra plant species richness. We also show that the existing protected areas cover only a small fraction of the regions with highest species richness. Our results reveal complex spatial patterns of community-level species richness in the Western Siberian Arctic. We show that climatic factors such as temperature (including paleotemperature) and precipitation are the main drivers of plant species richness in this area, and the role of relief is clearly secondary. We suggest that while community-level plant species richness is mostly driven by environmental factors, an improved spatial sampling will be needed to robustly and more precisely assess the impact of human activities on community-level species richness patterns. Our approach and results can be used to design conservation strategies and to investigate drivers of plant species richness in other arctic regions.

Escarpment evolution drives the diversification of the Madagascar flora.

Madagascar exhibits high endemic biodiversity that has evolved with sustained and stable rates of speciation over the past several tens of millions of years. The topography of Madagascar is dominated by a mountainous continental rift escarpment, with the highest plant diversity and rarity found along the steep, eastern side of this geographic feature. Using a process-explicit model, we show that precipitation-driven erosion and landward retreat of this high-relief topography creates transient habitat organization through multiple mechanisms, including catchment expansion, isolation of highland remnants, and formation of topographic barriers. Habitat isolation and reconnection on a million-year timescale serves as an allopatric speciation pump creating the observed biodiversity.

Climate regulation processes are linked to the functional composition of plant communities in European forests, shrublands, and grasslands.

Terrestrial ecosystems affect climate by reflecting solar irradiation, evaporative cooling, and carbon sequestration. Yet very little is known about how plant traits affect climate regulation processes (CRPs) in different habitat types. Here, we used linear and random forest models to relate the community-weighted mean and variance values of 19 plant traits (summarized into eight trait axes) to the climate-adjusted proportion of reflected solar irradiation, evapotranspiration, and net primary productivity across 36,630 grid cells at the European extent, classified into 10 types of forest, shrubland, and grassland habitats. We found that these trait axes were more tightly linked to log evapotranspiration (with an average of 6.2% explained variation) and the proportion of reflected solar irradiation (6.1%) than to net primary productivity (4.9%). The highest variation in CRPs was explained in forest and temperate shrubland habitats. Yet, the strength and direction of these relationships were strongly habitat-dependent. We conclude that any spatial upscaling of the effects of plant communities on CRPs must consider the relative contribution of different habitat types.

Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe.

To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in the European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting some of the most extensive natural areas and biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Here we assess the robustness of the current European reserve network to safeguard the European Alps' flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that the current network needs strong readjustments as it does not capture biodiversity patterns as well as our conservation simulations. Overall, we predict a strong shift in conservation need through time along latitudes, and from lower to higher elevations as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. In the face of global changes, the future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders.

SWECO25: a cross-thematic raster database for ecological research in Switzerland.

Standard and easily accessible cross-thematic spatial databases are key resources in ecological research. In Switzerland, as in many other countries, available data are scattered across computer servers of research institutions and are rarely provided in standard formats (e.g., different extents or projections systems, inconsistent naming conventions). Consequently, their joint use can require heavy data management and geomatic operations. Here, we introduce SWECO25, a Swiss-wide raster database at 25-meter resolution gathering 5,265 layers. The 10 environmental categories included in SWECO25 are: geologic, topographic, bioclimatic, hydrologic, edaphic, land use and cover, population, transportation, vegetation, and remote sensing. SWECO25 layers were standardized to a common grid sharing the same resolution, extent, and geographic coordinate system. SWECO25 includes the standardized source data and newly calculated layers, such as those obtained by computing focal or distance statistics. SWECO25 layers were validated by a data integrity check, and we verified that the standardization procedure had a negligible effect on the output values. SWECO25 is available on Zenodo and is intended to be updated and extended regularly.

Global multifaceted biodiversity patterns, centers, and conservation needs in angiosperms.

The Convention on Biological Diversity seeks to conserve at least 30% of global land and water areas by 2030, which is a challenge but also an opportunity to better preserve biodiversity, including flowering plants (angiosperms). Herein, we compiled a large database on distributions of over 300,000 angiosperm species and the key functional traits of 67,024 species. Using this database, we constructed biodiversity-environment models to predict global patterns of taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity in terrestrial angiosperms and provide a comprehensive mapping of the three diversity facets. We further evaluated the current protection status of the biodiversity centers of these diversity facets. Our results showed that geographical patterns of the three facets of plant diversity exhibited substantial spatial mismatches and nonoverlapping conservation priorities. Idiosyncratic centers of functional diversity, particularly of herbaceous species, were primarily distributed in temperate regions and under weaker protection compared with other biodiversity centers of taxonomic and phylogenetic facets. Our global assessment of multifaceted biodiversity patterns and centers highlights the insufficiency and unbalanced conservation among the three diversity facets and the two growth forms (woody vs. herbaceous), thus providing directions for guiding the future conservation of global plant diversity.

The geography of climate and the global patterns of species diversity.

Climate's effect on global biodiversity is typically viewed through the lens of temperature, humidity and resulting ecosystem productivity1-6. However, it is not known whether biodiversity depends solely on these climate conditions, or whether the size and fragmentation of these climates are also crucial. Here we shift the common perspective in global biodiversity studies, transitioning from geographic space to a climate-defined multidimensional space. Our findings suggest that larger and more isolated climate conditions tend to harbour higher diversity and species turnover among terrestrial tetrapods, encompassing more than 30,000 species. By considering both the characteristics of climate itself and its geographic attributes, we can explain almost 90% of the variation in global species richness. Half of the explanatory power (45%) may be attributed either to climate itself or to the geography of climate, suggesting a nuanced interplay between them. Our work evolves the conventional idea that larger climate regions, such as the tropics, host more species primarily because of their size7,8. Instead, we underscore the integral roles of both the geographic extent and degree of isolation of climates. This refined understanding presents a more intricate picture of biodiversity distribution, which can guide our approach to biodiversity conservation in an ever-changing world.

Interannual climate variability improves niche estimates for ectothermic but not endothermic species.

Climate is an important limiting factor of species' niches and it is therefore regularly included in ecological applications such as species distribution models (SDMs). Climate predictors are often used in the form of long-term mean values, yet many species experience wide climatic variation over their lifespan and within their geographical range which is unlikely captured by long-term means. Further, depending on their physiology, distinct groups of species cope with climate variability differently. Ectothermic species, which are directly dependent on the thermal environment are expected to show a different response to temporal or spatial variability in temperature than endothermic groups that can decouple their internal temperature from that of their surroundings. Here, we explore the degree to which spatial variability and long-term temporal variability in temperature and precipitation change niche estimates for ectothermic (730 amphibian, 1276 reptile), and endothermic (1961 mammal) species globally. We use three different species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithms to quantify the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability, based on global range maps of all species and climate data from 1979 to 2013. All SDMs were cross-validated and accessed for their performance using the Area under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The mean performance of SDMs using only climatic means as predictors was TSS = 0.71 and AUC = 0.90. The inclusion of spatial variability offers a significant gain in SDM performance (mean TSS = 0.74, mean AUC = 0.92), as does the inclusion of temporal variability (mean TSS = 0.80, mean AUC = 0.94). Including both spatial and temporal variability in SDMs shows the highest scores in AUC and TSS. Accounting for temporal rather than spatial variability in climate improved the SDM prediction especially in ectotherm groups such as amphibians and reptiles, while for endothermic mammals no such improvement was observed. These results indicate that including long term climate interannual climate variability into niche estimations matters most for ectothermic species that cannot decouple their physiology from the surrounding environment as endothermic species can.

Phytodiversity is associated with habitat heterogeneity from Eurasia to the Hengduan Mountains.

The geographic distribution of plant diversity matches the gradient of habitat heterogeneity from lowlands to mountain regions. However, little is known about how much this relationship is conserved across scales. Using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants and high-resolution biodiversity maps developed by species distribution models, we investigated the associations between species richness and habitat heterogeneity at the scales of Eurasia and the Hengduan Mountains (HDM) in China. Habitat heterogeneity explains seed plant species richness across Eurasia, but the plant species richness of 41/97 HDM families is even higher than expected from fitted statistical relationships. A habitat heterogeneity index combining growing degree days, site water balance, and bedrock type performs better than heterogeneity based on single variables in explaining species richness. In the HDM, the association between heterogeneity and species richness is stronger at larger scales. Our findings suggest that high environmental heterogeneity provides suitable conditions for the diversification of lineages in the HDM. Nevertheless, habitat heterogeneity alone cannot fully explain the distribution of species richness in the HDM, especially in the western HDM, and complementary mechanisms, such as the complex geological history of the region, may have contributed to shaping this exceptional biodiversity hotspot.

An updated floristic map of the world.

Floristic regions reflect the geographic organization of floras and provide essential tools for biological studies. Previous global floristic regions are generally based on floristic endemism, lacking a phylogenetic consideration that captures floristic evolution. Moreover, the contribution of tectonic dynamics and historical and current climate to the division of floristic regions remains unknown. Here, by integrating global distributions and a phylogeny of 12,664 angiosperm genera, we update global floristic regions and explore their temporal changes. Eight floristic realms and 16 nested sub-realms are identified. The previously-defined Holarctic, Neotropical and Australian realms are recognized, but Paleotropical, Antarctic and Cape realms are not. Most realms have formed since Paleogene. Geographic isolation induced by plate tectonics dominates the formation of floristic realms, while current/historical climate has little contribution. Our study demonstrates the necessity of integrating distributions and phylogenies in regionalizing floristic realms and the interplay of macroevolutionary and paleogeographic processes in shaping regional floras.

Climate-trait relationships exhibit strong habitat specificity in plant communities across Europe.

Ecological theory predicts close relationships between macroclimate and functional traits. Yet, global climatic gradients correlate only weakly with the trait composition of local plant communities, suggesting that important factors have been ignored. Here, we investigate the consistency of climate-trait relationships for plant communities in European habitats. Assuming that local factors are better accounted for in more narrowly defined habitats, we assigned > 300,000 vegetation plots to hierarchically classified habitats and modelled the effects of climate on the community-weighted means of four key functional traits using generalized additive models. We found that the predictive power of climate increased from broadly to narrowly defined habitats for specific leaf area and root length, but not for plant height and seed mass. Although macroclimate generally predicted the distribution of all traits, its effects varied, with habitat-specificity increasing toward more narrowly defined habitats. We conclude that macroclimate is an important determinant of terrestrial plant communities, but future predictions of climatic effects must consider how habitats are defined.

Precipitation is the main axis of tropical plant phylogenetic turnover across space and time.

Early natural historians-Comte de Buffon, von Humboldt, and De Candolle-established environment and geography as two principal axes determining the distribution of groups of organisms, laying the foundations for biogeography over the subsequent 200 years, yet the relative importance of these two axes remains unresolved. Leveraging phylogenomic and global species distribution data for Mimosoid legumes, a pantropical plant clade of c. 3500 species, we show that the water availability gradient from deserts to rain forests dictates turnover of lineages within continents across the tropics. We demonstrate that 95% of speciation occurs within a precipitation niche, showing profound phylogenetic niche conservatism, and that lineage turnover boundaries coincide with isohyets of precipitation. We reveal similar patterns on different continents, implying that evolution and dispersal follow universal processes.

Linking human impacts to community processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.

Blue and green food webs respond differently to elevation and land use.

While aquatic (blue) and terrestrial (green) food webs are parts of the same landscape, it remains unclear whether they respond similarly to shared environmental gradients. We use empirical community data from hundreds of sites across Switzerland and a synthesis of interaction information in the form of a metaweb to show that inferred blue and green food webs have different structural and ecological properties along elevation and among various land-use types. Specifically, in green food webs, their modular structure increases with elevation and the overlap of consumers' diet niche decreases, while the opposite pattern is observed in blue food webs. Such differences between blue and green food webs are particularly pronounced in farmland-dominated habitats, indicating that anthropogenic habitat modification modulates the climatic effects on food webs but differently in blue versus green systems. These findings indicate general structural differences between blue and green food webs and suggest their potential divergent future alterations through land-use or climatic changes.

Climate, immigration and speciation shape terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity in the European Alps.

Quaternary climate fluctuations can affect speciation in regional biodiversity assembly in two non-mutually exclusive ways: a glacial species pump, where isolation in glacial refugia accelerates allopatric speciation, and adaptive radiation in underused adaptive zones during ice-free periods. We detected biogeographic and genetic signatures associated with both mechanisms in the assembly of the biota of the European Alps. Age distributions of endemic and widespread species within aquatic and terrestrial taxa (amphipods, fishes, amphibians, butterflies and flowering plants) revealed that endemic fish evolved only in lakes, are highly sympatric, and mainly of Holocene age, consistent with adaptive radiation. Endemic amphipods are ancient, suggesting preglacial radiation with limited range expansion and local Pleistocene survival, perhaps facilitated by a groundwater-dwelling lifestyle. Terrestrial endemics are mostly of Pleistocene age and are thus more consistent with the glacial species pump. The lack of evidence for Holocene adaptive radiation in the terrestrial biome is consistent with faster recolonization through range expansion of these taxa after glacial retreats. More stable and less seasonal ecological conditions in lakes during the Holocene may also have contributed to Holocene speciation in lakes. The high proportion of young, endemic species makes the Alpine biota vulnerable to climate change, but the mechanisms and consequences of species loss will likely differ between biomes because of their distinct evolutionary histories.

Tempo and drivers of plant diversification in the European mountain system.

There is still limited consensus on the evolutionary history of species-rich temperate alpine floras due to a lack of comparable and high-quality phylogenetic data covering multiple plant lineages. Here we reconstructed when and how European alpine plant lineages diversified, i.e., the tempo and drivers of speciation events. We performed full-plastome phylogenomics and used multi-clade comparative models applied to six representative angiosperm lineages that have diversified in European mountains (212 sampled species, 251 ingroup species total). Diversification rates remained surprisingly steady for most clades, even during the Pleistocene, with speciation events being mostly driven by geographic divergence and bedrock shifts. Interestingly, we inferred asymmetrical historical migration rates from siliceous to calcareous bedrocks, and from higher to lower elevations, likely due to repeated shrinkage and expansion of high elevation habitats during the Pleistocene. This may have buffered climate-related extinctions, but prevented speciation along elevation gradients as often documented for tropical alpine floras.

An integrated high-resolution mapping shows congruent biodiversity patterns of Fagales and Pinales.

The documentation of biodiversity distribution through species range identification is crucial for macroecology, biogeography, conservation, and restoration. However, for plants, species range maps remain scarce and often inaccurate. We present a novel approach to map species ranges at a global scale, integrating polygon mapping and species distribution modelling (SDM). We develop a polygon mapping algorithm by considering distances and nestedness of occurrences. We further apply an SDM approach considering multiple modelling algorithms, complexity levels, and pseudo-absence selections to map the species at a high spatial resolution and intersect it with the generated polygons. We use this approach to construct range maps for all 1957 species of Fagales and Pinales with data compilated from multiple sources. We construct high-resolution global species richness maps of these important plant clades, and document diversity hotspots for both clades in southern and south-western China, Central America, and Borneo. We validate the approach with two representative genera, Quercus and Pinus, using previously published coarser range maps, and find good agreement. By efficiently producing high-resolution range maps, our mapping approach offers a new tool in the field of macroecology for studying global species distribution patterns and supporting ongoing conservation efforts.

Global plant-frugivore trait matching is shaped by climate and biogeographic history.

Species interactions are influenced by the trait structure of local multi-trophic communities. However, it remains unclear whether mutualistic interactions in particular can drive trait patterns at the global scale, where climatic constraints and biogeographic processes gain importance. Here we evaluate global relationships between traits of frugivorous birds and palms (Arecaceae), and how these relationships are affected, directly or indirectly, by assemblage richness, climate and biogeographic history. We leverage a new and expanded gape size dataset for nearly all avian frugivores, and find a positive relationship between gape size and fruit size, that is, trait matching, which is influenced indirectly by palm richness and climate. We also uncover a latitudinal gradient in trait matching strength, which increases towards the tropics and varies among zoogeographic realms. Taken together, our results suggest trophic interactions have consistent influences on trait structure, but that abiotic, biogeographic and richness effects also play important, though sometimes indirect, roles in shaping the functional biogeography of mutualisms.

Plant community impact on productivity: Trait diversity or key(stone) species effects?

Outside controlled experimental plots, the impact of community attributes on primary productivity has rarely been compared to that of individual species. Here, we identified plant species of high importance for productivity (key species) in >29,000 diverse grassland communities in the European Alps, and compared their effects with those of community-level measures of functional composition (weighted means, variances, skewness and kurtosis). After accounting for the environment, the five most important key species jointly explained more deviance of productivity than any measure of functional composition alone. Key species were generally tall with high specific leaf areas. By dividing the observations according to distinct habitats, the explanatory power of key species and functional composition increased and key-species plant types and functional composition-productivity relationships varied systematically, presumably because of changing interactions and trade-offs between traits. Our results advocate for a careful consideration of species' individual effects on ecosystem functioning in complement to community-level measures.