Machine learning to predict overall short-term mortality in cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) ranks among the ten most frequent malignancies, clinicopathological staging being of key importance to predict prognosis. Artificial intelligence (AI) has been recently applied to develop prognostically reliable staging systems for CMM. This study aims to provide a useful machine learning based tool to predict the overall CMM short-term survival. METHODS: CMM records as collected at the Veneto Cancer Registry (RTV) and at the Veneto regional health service were considered. A univariate Cox regression validated the strength and direction of each independent variable with overall mortality. A range of machine learning models (Logistic Regression classifier, Support-Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and k-Nearest Neighbors) and a Deep Neural Network were then trained to predict the 3-years mortality probability. Five-fold cross-validation and Grid Search were performed to test the best data preprocessing procedures, features selection, and to optimize models hyperparameters. A final evaluation was carried out on a separate test set in terms of balanced accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score. The best model was deployed as online tool. RESULTS: The univariate analysis confirmed the significant prognostic value of TNM staging. Adjunctive clinicopathological variables not included in the AJCC 8th melanoma staging system, i.e., sex, tumor site, histotype, growth phase, and age, were significantly linked to overall survival. Among the models, the Neural Network and the Random Forest models featured the best prognostic performance, achieving a balanced accuracy of 91% and 88%, respectively. According to the Gini importance score, age, T and M stages, mitotic count, and ulceration appeared to be the variables with the greatest impact on survival prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Using data from patients with CMM, we developed an AI algorithm with high staging reliability, on top of which a web tool was implemented ( unipd.link/melanomaprediction ). Being essentially based on routinely recorded clinicopathological variables, it can already be implemented with minimal effort and further tested in the current clinical practice, an essential phase for validating the model's accuracy beyond the original research context.

A systematic review of contemporary phase I trials in patients with lymphoma.

We performed a systematic review of phase I trials specifically designed for lymphoma patients. PubMed and Cochrane Library databases were searched using (lymphoma*) AND (phase 1) and publication date 2015-2020 to identify phase I dose-finding trials including a majority of lymphoma patients. Eighty-two trials (n = 3289 lymphoma patients) were included: 46 (55%) enrolled only lymphoma patients, 34 (41%) included also other hematologic malignancies, 2 (2%) solid tumors. Forty-six trials (56%) evaluated a combination (in 25 addition of experimental drug to standard therapy). Seven trials (9%) enrolled untreated patients. Among trials reporting activity in lymphoma patients, 74% (n = 57) reported an overall response rate ≥ 30%. All trials reported grade ≥ 3 adverse events; however, rates were not comparable across trials. Thirty-one treatment-related deaths in lymphoma patients were reported (overall treatment-related grade 5 adverse events rate 0.94%). Phase I trials designed for lymphoma patients were generally safe and the majority reported overall response rate ≥ 30%.

Trends in thyroid function testing, neck ultrasound, thyroid fine needle aspiration, and thyroidectomies in North-eastern Italy.

PURPOSE: Evidence of an increased diagnostic pressure on thyroid has emerged over the past decades. This study aimed to provide estimates of a wide spectrum of surveillance indicators for thyroid dysfunctions and diseases in Italy. METHODS: A population-based study was conducted in North-eastern Italy, including 11.7 million residents (20% of the total Italian population). Prescriptions for TSH testing, neck ultrasound or thyroid fine needle aspiration (FNA), surgical procedures, and drugs for hypo- or hyperthyroidism were extracted from regional health databases. Proportions and rates of selected examinations were calculated from 2010 to 2017, overall and by sex, calendar years, age, and region. RESULTS: Between 2010 and 2017 in North-eastern Italy, 24.5% of women and 9.8% of men received at least one TSH test yearly. In 2017, 7.1% of women and 1.5% of men were prescribed drugs for thyroid dysfunction, 94.6% of whom for hypothyroidism. Neck ultrasound examinations were performed yearly in 6.9% of women and 4.6% of men, with a nearly two-fold variation between areas. Thyroid FNA and thyroidectomies were three-fold more frequent in women (394 and 85 per 100,000) than in men (128 and 29 per 100,000) with a marked variation between areas. Both procedures decreased consistently after 2013. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this population-based study describe recent variations over time and between surrounding areas of indicators of 'diagnostic pressure' on thyroid in North-eastern Italy. These results emphasize the need to harmonize practices and to reduce some procedures (e.g., neck ultrasound and total thyroidectomies) in certain areas.

Clinical relevance of partial HPV16/18 genotyping in stratifying HPV-positive women attending routine cervical cancer screening: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate partial HPV16/18 genotyping as a possible biomarker to select women attending HPV-based cervical cancer screening at higher risk to be referred to colposcopy. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Organised cervical cancer screening programmes (Italy). POPULATION: Women with high-risk HPV infection (period: 2015-2019). METHODS: We analysed the association between partial HPV16/18 genotyping, cytology triage and histologically confirmed diagnosis of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3+ ) lesions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Detection rate (DR) and positive predictive value (PPV) for histologically confirmed CIN3+ (any episode in the 2 years after baseline); sensitivity for CIN3+ and number of colposcopies needed for lesion detection. RESULTS: The study included 145 437 women screened with HPV testing by the clinically validated COBAS 4800 HPV assay (Roche). Overall, 9601 (6.6%) women were HPV+ at baseline; HPV16 and HPV18 were present in 1865 and 594 samples, respectively. The cumulative (baseline plus 1-year repeat) cytology positivity was 42.8% and high-grade cytology was significantly higher (P < 0.0001) among women with HPV16 infection at baseline (15.2%). The cumulative CIN3+ DR for women with HPV16, HPV18 and other HPV-type infections was 9.8%, 3.4% and 1.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Partial HPV16 genotyping may play a role in triage, whereas HPV18 seems to behave much more similarly to the other HPV types and does not provide additional stratification. HPV16 genotyping combined with high-grade cytology can be envisaged as a triage biomarker in cervical screening to maximise CIN3+ detection while minimising colposcopy at baseline or 1-year repeat. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: HPV16 genotyping combined with high-grade cytology can be used as triage biomarker for CIN3+ in HPV-positive women.

Androgen-deprivation therapies for prostate cancer and risk of infection by SARS-CoV-2: a population-based study (N = 4532).

BACKGROUND: Cell entry of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) depends on binding of the viral spike (S) proteins to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and on S protein priming by TMPRSS2. Inhibition of TMPRSS2 may work to block or decrease the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Intriguingly, TMPRSS2 is an androgen-regulated gene that is up-regulated in prostate cancer where it supports tumor progression and is involved in a frequent genetic translocation with the ERG gene. First- or second-generation androgen-deprivation therapies (ADTs) decrease the levels of TMPRSS2. Here we put forward the hypothesis that ADTs may protect patients affected by prostate cancer from SARS-CoV-2 infections. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data regarding 9280 patients (4532 males) with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from 68 hospitals in Veneto, one of the Italian regions that was most affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The parameters used for each COVID-19-positive patient were sex, hospitalization, admission to intensive care unit, death, tumor diagnosis, prostate cancer diagnosis, and ADT. RESULTS: There were evaluable 9280 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients in Veneto on 1 April 2020. Overall, males developed more severe complications, were more frequently hospitalized, and had a worse clinical outcome than females. Considering only the Veneto male population (2.4 million men), 0.2% and 0.3% of non-cancer and cancer patients, respectively, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Comparing the total number of SARS-CoV-2-positive cases, prostate cancer patients receiving ADT had a significantly lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with patients who did not receive ADT (OR 4.05; 95% CI 1.55-10.59). A greater difference was found comparing prostate cancer patients receiving ADT with patients with any other type of cancer (OR 4.86; 95% CI 1.88-12.56). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that cancer patients have an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections compared with non-cancer patients. However, prostate cancer patients receiving ADT appear to be partially protected from SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Five-year risk of CIN3 after short-term HPV-DNA negativity in cytology-negative women: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the 5-year risk of high-grade lesions in women with a transient high-risk HPV infection. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: HPV primary testing within population-based organised cervical cancer screening programmes. POPULATION: Italian women enrolled in seven pilot projects and attending the second round. METHODS: On the basis of the cytology triage performed on HPV-positive women, immediate colposcopy or HPV repeat at 12 months was recommended. Data were collected at the subsequent round 3-4 years after HPV infection clearance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of HPV infection, CIN2+ and CIN3+ detection at subsequent round after HPV clearance, and relative risks (RR) in comparison with HPV-negative women (with 95% confidence interval). RESULTS: Data on 1230 women (1027 aged 25-64 years and 203 aged 35-64 years) have been analysed. Overall compliance with repeat HPV testing was 84%. In comparison with HPV-negative women, those with a transient HPV infection had higher proportions of HPV positivity (15% versus 3.7%) and of CIN2+ lesions (0.87% versus 0.23%) in round two; most of these (7/10) were CIN2; no cancers were detected, and CIN3 occurred in 3/1230 (0.24%). CONCLUSIONS: HPV-based protocols for cervical cancer screening allow long intervals for HPV-negative women; it is important to monitor the clinical outcome in the women with transient high-risk HPV infection. CIN3 detection is similar to that observed in routine European cytology-based screening programmes (CIN3+: 2.7‰); 5-year intervals may provide reasonable protection but longer intervals are not recommended. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: A screening interval of 5 years (but no longer) appears safe in women with transient HPV detection.

Investigation of the photocatalytic transformation of acesulfame K in the presence of different TiO2-based materials.

The photocatalytic transformation of acesulfame K - an artificial sweetener that has gained popularity over the last decades for being a calorie-free additive in food, beverages and several pharmaceutical products - was studied using three different photocatalysts, the benchmark TiO2-P25 and two other forms of synthetized titanium oxides named TiO2-SG1 and TiO2-SG2. The two latter materials were synthesized by a sol gel process in which the hydrolysis rate of titanium n-butoxide was controlled by the water formed in situ through an esterification reaction between ethanol and acetic acid. The investigation included monitoring the sweetener disappearance, identifying its intermediate compounds, assessing mineralization and evaluating toxicity. The analyses were carried out using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) coupled with a LTQ-Orbitrap analyzer via an electrospray ionization (ESI) in the negative ion mode. This is a powerful tool for the identification, characterization and measurement of the transformation products (TPs); overall 13 species were identified. The use of several semiconductors has pointed out differences in terms of both photocatalytic efficiency and mechanism: the assessment of the evolution kinetics of each species (TPs, total organic carbon and inorganic ions) has brought to the elaboration of a general transformation pathway of acesulfame K. TiO2-SG2 proved to be the most efficient material in degrading the artificial sweetener and leads to the complete mineralization within 6 h of irradiation, while up to 16 h are required for TiO2-P25.

In-hospital mortality, 30-day readmission, and length of hospital stay after surgery for primary colorectal cancer: A national population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: The simultaneous assessment of multiple indicators for quality of care is essential for comparisons of performance between hospitals and health care systems. The aim of this study was to assess the rates of in-hospital mortality and 30-day readmission and length of hospital stay (LOS) in patients who underwent surgical procedures for colorectal cancer between 2005 and 2014 in Italy. METHODS: All patients in the National Italian Hospital Discharge Dataset who underwent a surgical procedure for colorectal cancer during the study period were included. The adjusted odd ratios for risk factors for in-hospital mortality, 30-day readmission, and LOS were calculated using multilevel multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among the 353 941 patients, rates of in-hospital mortality and 30-day readmission were 2.5% and 6%, respectively, and the median LOS was 13 days. High comorbidity, emergent/urgent admission, male gender, creation of a stoma, and an open approach increased the risks of all the outcomes at multivariable analysis. Age, hospital volume, hospital geographic location, and discharge to home/non-home produced different effects depending on the outcome considered. The most frequent causes of readmission were infection (19%) and bowel obstruction (14.6%). CONCLUSIONS: We assessed national averages for mortality, LOS and readmission and related trends over a 10-year time. Laparoscopic surgery was the only one that could be modified by improving surgical education. Higher hospital volume was associated with a LOS reduction, but our findings only partially support a policy of centralization for colorectal cancer procedures. Surgical site infection was identified as the most preventable cause of readmission.

A 3-year interval is too short for re-screening women testing negative for human papillomavirus: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the results from an initial negative human papillomavirus (HPV) test with re-screening after 3 years in women attending two HPV-based screening programmes. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Two cervical service screening programmes in Italy. POPULATION: Women aged 25-64 years invited to screening from April 2009 to October 2015. METHODS: Eligible women were invited to undergo an HPV test. Those with a negative HPV test went on to the next screening round 3 years later. Cytology triage was performed for HPV+ (HPV by Hybrid Capture 2) samples, with immediate colposcopy (if abnormal) and HPV re-testing 1 year later (if negative). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participation rate, positivity at HPV and at triage, referral rate to colposcopy, positive predictive value for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+) at colposcopy, and detection rate for CIN2+. RESULTS: We present the results from 48 751 women at the first screening and 22 000 women at re-screening 3 years later. The response rate was slightly higher at the second screening (74.5 versus 72.1% at the first screening; referral rate, RR 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI, 1.07-1.14). Compared with the first screening, we observed a significant reduction at the second screening in terms of HPV positivity (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.51-0.60), referral rate to colposcopy (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.41-0.53), CIN2+ detection rate (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.13-0.39), and positive predictive value (PPV) for CIN2+ at colposcopy (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.29-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: The very low frequency of disease and inadequate PPV at colposcopy indicate that a 3-year interval after a negative HPV test is too short. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Three years after a negative HPV the frequency of cervical disease is so low that re-screening is inefficient.

"Pure" primary large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma of the urinary bladder: case report, literature review and diagnostic criteria.

INTRODUCTION: Large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (LCNC) is defined in the urinary bladder, as in other sites, as a high-grade neoplasm exhibiting neuroendocrine features at the H&E level, high mitotic activity and evidence of neuroendocrine differentiation by immunohistochemistry. We report a case of pure bladder LCNC with review of the literature. METHODS: A 68-year-old male presented with gross haematuria of two weeks' duration in October 2011. Transurethral resection and subsequently radical cystoprostatectomy (CP) with bilateral lymphadenectomy (L) were performed in December 2012. RESULTS: Urinary cytology identified malignant cells. Histologically, the tumour showed organoid nesting, trabecular growth, rosettes and perilobular palisading patterns, suggesting neuroendocrine differentiation. Immunohistochemical staining showed intense positivity for CD56. DISCUSSION: We examined all published pure bladder LCNC (12 cases) excluding mixed neoplasms. Small cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder pure LCNC of the bladder is a very aggressive malignancy, unresponsive to therapy, presents in an advanced stage and has a propensity for early metastasis. Prior to the advent of immunohistochemistry, such cases would most likely have been categorised as poorly differentiated, high-grade urothelial carcinomas.

Use of a high-risk human papillomavirus DNA test as the primary test in a cervical cancer screening programme: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To present the results of the first 2 years of a human papillomavirus (HPV) test-based screening programme outside the research context. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: A cervical service screening programme in Italy. POPULATION: Women aged 25-64 years invited to screening from April 2009 to April 2011. METHODS: Eligible women were invited to undergo an HPV test: those with a negative HPV test went on to the next screening episode; those with a positive HPV went on to triage with a Pap smear. Women with positive cytology (i.e. positive for atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse, ASC-US+) were referred to colposcopy, whereas those with negative cytology were referred to repeat HPV testing 1 year later. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participation rate, positivity at HPV and at triage, referral rate to colposcopy, positive predictive value for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+) at colposcopy, and detection rate for CIN2+. RESULTS: Participation increased compared with the previous Pap programme (60.6 versus 43.9%). The HPV positivity rate was 7.0; 39.6% of Pap smears were scored as positive, and therefore 2.8% of the women screened were referred for immediate colposcopy. The compliance of women who scored positive for HPV and negative for Pap for repeat HPV testing at 12 months was 78.6%, and the HPV positivity rate was 56.6%. The overall referral rate to colposcopy was 4.6%. The overall detection rate for CIN2+ was 4.5 versus 1.5% of the Pap programme (25-34 years, 8.2%; 35+ years, 3.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the traditional Pap test, the HPV programme recorded a higher response to invitation and an increased DR for CIN2+. The most critical aspects were the reading of cytology in women that were positive for HPV and the increased workload at colposcopy.

Computer-based attention-demanding testing unveils severe neglect in apparently intact patients.

We tested a group of ten post-acute right-hemisphere damaged patients. Patients had no neglect according to paper-and-pencil cancellation tasks. They were administered computer-based single- and dual-tasks, requiring to orally name the position of appearance (e.g. left vs. right) of briefly-presented lateralized targets. Patients omitted a consistent number of contralesional targets (≈ 40%) under the single-task condition. When required to perform a concurrent task which recruited additional attentional resources (dual-tasks), patients' awareness for contralesional hemispace was severely affected, with less than one third of contralesional targets detected (≈ 70% of omissions). In contrast, performance for ipsilesional (right-sided) targets was close to ceiling, showing that the deficit unveiled by computer-based testing selectively affected the contralesional hemispace. We conclude that computer-based, attention-demanding tasks are strikingly more sensitive than cancellation tasks in detecting neglect, because they are relatively immune to compensatory strategies that are often deployed by post-acute patients.

A new human leukocyte antigen class I allele: HLA-A*02:374.

HLA-A*02:374 differs from HLA-A*02:01:01 by one amino acid change at codon 112 where G is replaced by V.

Identification and sequence analysis of a novel human leukocyte antigen allele B*51:141.

The newly detected HLA-B*51:141 is distinguished from HLA-B*51:08 by a single-nucleotide exchange at codon 30 where D is replaced by Y.

Theory and practical application of superficial atypical melanocytic proliferations of uncertain significance (SAMPUS) and melanocytic tumours of uncertain malignant potential (MELTUMP) terminology: experience with second opinion consultation.

INTRODUCTION: The term superficial atypical melanocytic proliferations of uncertain significance (SAMPUS) is used to resolve discordance in diagnosis of "thin" melanocytic lesions. Melanocytic tumours of uncertain malignant potential (MELTUMP) is the descriptive term for an ill-defined group of dermal melanocytic tumours that exhibit features indicative of possible malignancy. We report our experience of collaboration with two leading international consultant pathologists in the diagnosis of melanoma in order to facilitate the practical application of the term SAMPUS and MELTUMP. METHODS: Twenty-seven cases of melanocytic lesions with interpretative problems were sent for consultation to Expert #1 (15 cases) and Expert #2 (12 cases). RESULTS: Two cases of MELTUMP and two cases of SAMPUS were diagnosed by Expert #1; three cases of MELTUMP and two cases of SAMPUS were diagnosed by Expert #2. Diagnosis was performed with H&E and molecular studies were not performed. DISCUSSION: Both experts included MELTUMP or SAMPUS atypical, ambiguous melanocytic lesions and melanomas. The diagnosis of SAMPUS and MELTUMP by consultant pathologists reflects the difficulty of classification with accuracy lesions that showed histological features of various atypical tumours or malignant melanoma. In these cases, biological potential may be established with molecular studies.

Clinical and molecular detection of inherited colorectal cancers in northeast Italy: a first prospective study of incidence of Lynch syndrome and MUTYH-related colorectal cancer in Italy.

The reported incidence of hereditary colorectal cancers (CRCs) is widely variable. The principal aim of the study was to prospectively evaluate the incidence of familial CRCs in a region of northern Italy using a standardized method. Consecutive CRC patients were prospectively enrolled from October 2002 to December 2003. Patients underwent a structured family history, the microsatellite instability (MSI) test and a screen for MUTYH mutations. Following family history patients were classified as belonging to high, moderate and mild risk families. Immunohistochemistry for MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2 proteins and investigation for MLH1/MSH2 mutations, for MLH1 promoter methylation and for the V600E hotspot BRAF mutation were performed in high MSI (MSI-H) cases. Of the 430 patients enrolled, 17 (4%) were high risk [4 hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC), 12 suspected HNPCC and 1 MUTYH-associated adenomatous polyposis coli (MAP)], 53 moderate risk and 360 mild risk cases. The MSI test was performed on 393 tumours, and 46 (12%) of them showed MSI-H. In these patients, one MLH1 pathogenetic mutations and two MSH2 pathogenetic mutations were found. Thirty-two (70%) MSI-H cases demonstrated MLH1 methylation and/or BRAF mutation: None of them showed MLH1/MSH2 mutation. Two biallelic germline MUTYH mutations were found, one with clinical features of MAP. A strong family history of CRC was present in 4% of the enrolled cases; incidence of MLH1/MSH2 or MUTHY mutations was 1.3% and of MSI-H phenotype was 12%. MLH1 methylation and BRAF mutation can exclude 70% of MSI-H cases from gene sequencing.

Ovarian fibromatous tumours of uncertain biological potential: study of three cases.

BACKGROUND: The classification of ovarian fibromatous tumours with high mitotic activity is controversial. CASES REPORT: The first case was an 18 x 17 x 10 cm left ovarian fibromatous tumour with 17 mitoses/10 HPF detected in a 44-year-old woman. The second case consisted of a 4 x 2.5 x 2 and a 2.5 x 2.5 x 2 cm fibrmatous tumours found, respectively, in the left and right ovaries of a 67-year-old woman. The mitotic count varied from 4 to 6/10 HPF. CONCLUSIONS: Prat & Scully reported that mitotic activity was the most important factor in diagnosing fibrosarcomas, and that cellular pleomorphism was not reliable. Irving et al. suggested that cellular fibromatous neoplasms with bland nuclear features and mitotic count of > or = 4 MFs/10 HPFs should be considered mitotically-active cellular fibromas rather than fibrosarcomas. We propose the term 'fibromatous tumours of uncertain biological potential' when an average mitotic count of 4 or more per 10 HPFs are found and nuclear atypia and necrosis are absent.