A genome-wide association study for susceptibility and infectivity of Holstein Friesian dairy cattle to digital dermatitis.

Selection and breeding can be used to fight transmission of infectious diseases in livestock. The prevalence in a population depends on the susceptibility and infectivity of the animals. Knowledge on the genetic background of those traits would facilitate efficient selection for lower disease prevalence. We investigated the genetic background of host susceptibility and infectivity for digital dermatitis (DD), an endemic infectious claw disease in dairy cattle, with a genome-wide association study (GWAS), using either a simple linear mixed model or a generalized linear mixed model based on epidemiological theory. In total, 1,513 Holstein-Friesian cows of 12 Dutch dairy farms were scored for DD infection status and class (M0 to M4.1) every 2 wk for 11 times; 1,401 of these cows were genotyped with a 75k SNP chip. We performed a GWAS with a linear mixed model on 10 host disease status traits, and with a generalized linear mixed model with a complementary log-log link function (GLMM) on the probability that a cow would get infected between 2 scorings. With the GLMM, we fitted SNP effects for host susceptibility and host infectivity, while taking the variation in exposure of the susceptible cow to infectious herd mates into account. With the linear model we detected 4 suggestive SNP (false discovery rate < 0.20), 2 for the fraction of observations a cow had an active lesion on chromosomes 1 and 14, one for the fraction of observations a cow had an M2 lesion on at least one claw on chromosome 1 (the same SNP as for the fraction of observations with an active lesion), and one for the fraction of observations a cow had an M4.1 lesion on at least one claw on chromosome 10. Heritability estimates ranged from 0.09 to 0.37. With the GLMM we did not detect significant nor suggestive SNP. The SNP effects on disease status analyzed with the linear model had a correlation coefficient of only 0.70 with SNP effects on susceptibility of the GLMM, indicating that both models capture partly different effects. Because the GLMM better accounts for the epidemiological mechanisms determining individual disease status and for the distribution of the y-variable, results of the GLMM may be more reliable, despite the absence of suggestive associations. We expect that with an extended GLMM that better accounts for the full genetic variation in infectivity via the environment, the accuracy of SNP effects may increase.

Quantification of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a badger vaccine field trial.

In the UK and Ireland, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination of badgers has been suggested as one of a number of strategies to control or even eradicate Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers. In this manuscript, we present the results of a badger field trial conducted in Ireland and discuss how the novel trial design and analytical methods allowed the effects of vaccination on protection against infection and, more importantly, on transmission to be estimated. The trial area was divided into three zones North to South (A, B and C) where vaccination coverages of 0, 50 and 100%, respectively, were applied. Badgers were trapped over a 4year period. Badgers were assigned to either placebo or vaccine treatment, with treatment allocation occurring randomly in zone B. Blood samples were collected at each capture, and serology was performed in these samples using a chemiluminescent multiplex ELISA system (Enfer test). The analysis aimed to compare new infections occurring in non-infected non-vaccinated badgers to those in non-infected vaccinated ones, while accounting for the zone in which the badger was trapped and the infection pressure to which this individual badger was exposed. In total, 440 records on subsequent trappings of individual non-infected badgers were available for analysis. Over the study period, 55 new infections occurred in non-vaccinated (out of 239=23.0%) and 40 in vaccinated (out of 201=19.9%) badgers. A Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with a cloglog link function was used for analysis. Statistical analysis showed that susceptibility to natural exposure with M. bovis was reduced in vaccinated compared to placebo treated badgers: vaccine efficacy for susceptibility, VES, was 59% (95% CI=6.5%-82%). However, a complete lack of effect from BCG vaccination on the infectivity of vaccinated badgers was observed, i.e. vaccine efficacy for infectiousness (VEI) was 0%. Further, the basic reproduction ratio as a function of vaccination coverage (p) (i.e. R(p)) was estimated. Given that the prevalence of M. bovis infection in badgers in endemic areas in Ireland is approximately 18%, we estimated the reproduction ratio in the unvaccinated population as R(0)=1.22. Because VES was now known, the reproduction ratio for a fully vaccinated population was estimated as R(1)=0.50. These results imply that with vaccination coverage in badgers exceeding 30%, eradication of M. bovis in badgers in Ireland is feasible, provided that the current control measures also remain in place.

Temporal and spatial distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Ethiopia in the period 2000 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious viral disease of cattle caused by a virus of the genus Capripoxvirus. LSD was reported for the first time in Ethiopia in 1981 and subsequently became endemic. This time series study was undertaken with the aims of identifying the spatial and temporal distribution of LSD outbreaks and to forecast the future pattern of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia. RESULTS: A total of 3811 LSD outbreaks were reported in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2015. In this period, LSD was reported at least once in 82% of the districts (n = 683), 88% of the administrative zones (n = 77), and all of the regional states or city administrations (n = 9 and n = 2) in the country. The average incidence of LSD outbreaks at district level was 5.58 per 16 years (0.35 year-1). The incidence differed between areas, being the lowest in hot dry lowlands and highest in warm moist highland. The occurrence of LSD outbreaks was found to be seasonal. LSD outbreaks generally have a peak in October and a low in May. The trend of LSD outbreaks indicates a slight, but statistically significant increase over the study period. The monthly precipitation pattern is the reverse of LSD outbreak pattern and they are negatively but non-significantly correlated at lag 0 (r = -0.05, p = 0.49, Spearman rank correlation) but the correlation becomes positive and significant when the series are lagged by 1 to 6 months, being the highest at lag 3 (r = 0.55, p < 0.001). The forecast for the period 2016-2018 revealed that the highest number of LSD outbreaks will occur in October for all the 3 years and the lowest in April for the year 2016 and in May for 2017 and 2018. CONCLUSION: LSD occurred in all major parts of the country. Outbreaks were high at the end of the long rainy season. Understanding temporal and spatial patterns of LSD and forecasting future occurrences are useful for indicating periods when particular attention should be paid to prevent and control the disease.

Transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly mixed crop-livestock system and in intensive commercial herd types. The transmission parameters were based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with environmental transmission and estimated using generalized linear models. The transmission parameters were estimated using a survival rate of infectious virus in the environment equal to 0·325 per day, a value based on the best-fitting statistical model. The transmission rate parameter between animals was 0·072 (95% CI 0·068-0·076) per day in the crop-livestock production system, whereas this transmission rate in intensive production system was 0·076 (95% CI 0·068-0·085) per day. The reproduction ratio (R) of LSD between animals in the crop-livestock production system was 1·07, whereas it was 1·09 between animals in the intensive production system. The calculated R provides a baseline against which various control options can be assessed for efficacy.

Modelling the Innate Immune Response against Avian Influenza Virus in Chicken.

At present there is limited understanding of the host immune response to (low pathogenic) avian influenza virus infections in poultry. Here we develop a mathematical model for the innate immune response to avian influenza virus in chicken lung, describing the dynamics of viral load, interferon-α, -ß and -γ, lung (i.e. pulmonary) cells and Natural Killer cells. We use recent results from experimentally infected chickens to validate some of the model predictions. The model includes an initial exponential increase of the viral load, which we show to be consistent with experimental data. Using this exponential growth model we show that the duration until a given viral load is reached in experiments with different inoculation doses is consistent with a model assuming a linear relationship between initial viral load and inoculation dose. Subsequent to the exponential-growth phase, the model results show a decline in viral load caused by both target-cell limitation as well as the innate immune response. The model results suggest that the temporal viral load pattern in the lungs displayed in experimental data cannot be explained by target-cell limitation alone. For biologically plausible parameter values the model is able to qualitatively match to data on viral load in chicken lungs up until approximately 4 days post infection. Comparison of model predictions with data on CD107-mediated degranulation of Natural Killer cells yields some discrepancy also for earlier days post infection.

Efficacy of antibiotic treatment and test-based culling strategies for eradicating brucellosis in commercial swine herds.

Swine brucellosis caused by Brucella suis biovar 2 is an emerging disease in continental Europe. Without effective vaccines being available, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommends the full depopulation of infected herds as the only strategy to eradicate B. suis outbreaks. Using data collected from 8 herds suffering natural swine brucellosis outbreaks, we assessed the efficacy of four control strategies: (i) oxytetracycline treatment only, as a default scenario, (ii) oxytetracycline treatment combined with skin testing and removal of positive animals, (iii) oxytetracycline treatment combined with serological testing (Rose Bengal test-RBT-and indirect ELISA -iELISA-) and removal of seropositive animals and (iv) oxytetracycline treatment combined with both serological (RBT/iELISA) and skin testing and removal of positive animals. A Susceptible-Infectious-Removal model was used to estimate the reproduction ratio (R) for each strategy. According to this model, the oxytetracycline treatment alone was not effective enough to eradicate the infection. However, this antibiotic treatment combined with diagnostic testing at 4-monthly intervals plus immediate removal of positive animals showed to be effective to eradicate brucellosis independent of the diagnostic test strategy used in an acceptable time interval (1-2 years), depending on the initial number of infected animals.

Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases.

The transmission of infectious diseases of livestock does not differ in principle from disease transmission in any other animals, apart from that the aim of control is ultimately economic, with the influence of social, political and welfare constraints often poorly defined. Modelling of livestock diseases suffers simultaneously from a wealth and a lack of data. On the one hand, the ability to conduct transmission experiments, detailed within-host studies and track individual animals between geocoded locations make livestock diseases a particularly rich potential source of realistic data for illuminating biological mechanisms of transmission and conducting explicit analyses of contact networks. On the other hand, scarcity of funding, as compared to human diseases, often results in incomplete and partial data for many livestock diseases and regions of the world. In this overview of challenges in livestock disease modelling, we highlight eight areas unique to livestock that, if addressed, would mark major progress in the area.

Vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to stop FMDV transmission in mixed populations of sheep and cattle.

We quantified the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in mixed cattle-sheep populations and the effect of different vaccination strategies. The (partial) reproduction ratios (R) in groups of non-vaccinated and vaccinated cattle and/or sheep were estimated from (published) transmission experiments. A 4 × 4 next-generation matrix (NGM) was constructed using these estimates. The dominant eigenvalue of the NGM, the R for a mixed population, was determined for populations with different proportions of cattle and sheep and for three different vaccination strategies. The higher the proportion of cattle in a mixed cattle-sheep population, the higher the R for the mixed population. Therefore the impact of vaccination of the cattle is higher. After vaccination of all animals R = 0·1 independent of population composition. In mixed cattle-sheep populations with at least 14% of cattle, vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to reduce R to < 1.

Horizontal transmission dynamics of White spot syndrome virus by cohabitation trials in juvenile Penaeus monodon and P. vannamei.

White spot syndrome virus (WSSV), a rod-shaped double-stranded DNA virus, is an infectious agent causing fatal disease in shrimp farming around the globe. Within shrimp populations WSSV is transmitted very fast, however, the modes and dynamics of transmission of this virus are not well understood. In the current study the dynamics of disease transmission of WSSV were investigated in small, closed populations of Penaeus monodon and Penaeus vannamei. Pair cohabitation experiments using PCR as a readout for virus infection were used to estimate transmission parameters for WSSV in these two species. The mortality rate of contact-infected shrimp in P. monodon was higher than the rate in P. vannamei. The transmission rate parameters for WSSV were not different between the two species. The relative contribution of direct and indirect transmission rates of WSSV differed between the two species. For P. vannamei the direct contact transmission rate of WSSV was significantly lower than the indirect environmental transmission rate, but for P. monodon, the opposite was found. The reproduction ratio R0 for WSSV for these two species of shrimp was estimated to be above one: 2.07 (95%CI 1.53, 2.79) for P. monodon and 1.51 (95%CI 1.12, 2.03) for P. vannamei. The difference in R0 between the two species is due to a lower host mortality and hence a longer infectious period of WSSV in P. monodon.

On the definition and utilization of heritable variation among hosts in reproduction ratio R0 for infectious diseases.

Infectious diseases have a major role in evolution by natural selection and pose a worldwide concern in livestock. Understanding quantitative genetics of infectious diseases, therefore, is essential both for understanding the consequences of natural selection and for designing artificial selection schemes in agriculture. The basic reproduction ratio, R0, is the key parameter determining risk and severity of infectious diseases. Genetic improvement for control of infectious diseases in host populations should therefore aim at reducing R0. This requires definitions of breeding value and heritable variation for R0, and understanding of mechanisms determining response to selection. This is challenging, as R0 is an emergent trait arising from interactions among individuals in the population. Here we show how to define breeding value and heritable variation for R0 for genetically heterogeneous host populations. Furthermore, we identify mechanisms determining utilization of heritable variation for R0. Using indirect genetic effects, next-generation matrices and a SIR (Susceptible, Infected and Recovered) model, we show that an individual's breeding value for R0 is a function of its own allele frequencies for susceptibility and infectivity and of population average susceptibility and infectivity. When interacting individuals are unrelated, selection for individual disease status captures heritable variation in susceptibility only, yielding limited response in R0. With related individuals, however, there is a secondary selection process, which also captures heritable variation in infectivity and additional variation in susceptibility, yielding substantially greater response. This shows that genetic variation in susceptibility represents an indirect genetic effect. As a consequence, response in R0 increased substantially when interacting individuals were genetically related.

Transmission of fish-borne zoonotic trematodes (Heterophyidae) to common carp (Cyprinus carpio) is independent of density of fish and trematodes.

Fish-borne zoonotic trematodes (FZTs) can cause major human health problems. The aim of this study was to quantify the transmission of parapleurolophocercous cercariae to common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and to study the effect of the density of cercariae and the density of fish on transmission with respect to the volume of water and surface area of the bottom. Fish were kept individually either as controls (n= 91) or were exposed to 250 cercariae in tubes with a volume of 25, 50, 100, 250 or 500 ml water (n= 190) with a surface area of 4, 12, 21, 30 or 49 cm2 (n= 195). The dose to which the fish were exposed was kept constant. Infection occurred in 94-100% of fish, with a mean of 15-18 metacercariae per fish and the proportion of FZTs established at 0.06-0.07 metacercariae per cercariae per fish. Neither the prevalence of infection with FZTs nor the number of metacercariae per fish nor the proportion of FZTs established were significantly associated with differences in the density of cercariae or the density of fish per ml water or per cm2 surface area. Thus, it was concluded that the transmission of cercariae to fish is independent of density.

Estimating the power of a Mycobacterium bovis vaccine trial in Irish badgers.

The aim of this study was to estimate the power, using simulation techniques, of a group randomized vaccine field trial designed to assess the effect of vaccination on Mycobacterium bovis transmission in badgers. The effects of sample size (recapture percentage), initial prevalence, sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test, transmission rate between unvaccinated badgers, Vaccine Efficacy for Susceptibility (VES) and Vaccine Efficacy for Infectiousness (VEI), on study power were determined. Sample size had a small effect on power. Study power increased with increasing transmission rate between non-vaccinated badgers. Changes in VES had a higher impact on power than changes in VEI. However, the largest effect on study power was associated with changes in the specificity of the diagnostic test, within the range of input values that were used for all other modelled parameters. Specificity values below 99.4% yielded a study power below 50% even when sensitivity was 100% and, VEI and VES were both equal to 80%. The effect of changes in sensitivity on study power was much lower. The results from our study are in line with previous studies, as study power was dependent not only on sample size but on many other variables. In this study, additional variables were studied, i.e. test sensitivity and specificity. In the current vaccine trial, power was highly dependent on the specificity of the diagnostic test. Therefore, it is critical that the diagnostic test used in the badger vaccine trial is optimized to maximize test specificity.

Prevalence of extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in humans living in municipalities with high and low broiler density.

Prevalence of, and risk factors for, carriage of extended-spectrum ß-lactamase (ESBL) -producing Enterobacteriaceae were determined for 1025 Dutch adults in municipalities with either high or low broiler densities. Overall prevalence of ESBL carriage was 5.1%. The hypothesis that individuals in areas with high broiler densities are at greater risk for ESBL carriage was rejected, as the risk was lower (OR = 0.45; p 0.009) for these individuals. Owning a horse increased the risk (OR = 4.69; p ≤0.0001), but horse owners often owned multiple species of companion animals. Routes of transmission from animals to humans in the community, and the role of poultry in this process, remain to be elucidated.

Avian influenza transmission risks: analysis of biosecurity measures and contact structure in Dutch poultry farming.

In the 2003 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry, between-farm virus transmission continued for considerable time despite control measures. Gaining more insight into the mechanisms of this spread is necessary for the possible development of better control strategies. We carried out an in-depth interview study aiming to systematically explore all the poultry production activities to identify the activities that could potentially be related to virus introduction and transmission. One of the between-farm contact risks that were identified is the movement of birds between farms during thinning with violations of on-farm biosecurity protocols. In addition, several other risky management practices, risky visitor behaviours and biosecurity breaches were identified. They include human and fomite contacts that occurred without observing biosecurity protocols, poor waste management practices, presence of other animal species on poultry farms, and poor biosecurity against risks from farm neighbourhood activities. Among the detailed practices identified, taking cell phones and jewellery into poultry houses, not observing shower-in protocols and the exchange of unclean farm equipment were common. Also, sometimes certain protocols or biosecurity facilities were lacking. We also asked the interviewed farmers about their perception of transmission risks and found that they had divergent opinions about the visitor- and neighbourhood-associated risks. We performed a qualitative assessment of contact risks (as transmission pathways) based on contact type, corresponding biosecurity practices, and contact frequency. This assessment suggests that the most risky contact types are bird movements during thinning and restocking, most human movements accessing poultry houses and proximity to other poultry farms. The overall risk posed by persons and equipment accessing storage rooms and the premises-only contacts was considered to be medium. Most of the exposure risks are considered to be similar for layer and broiler farms. Our results, including those on farmer opinions, are relevant for the communication with farmers and poultry-related businesses about practices and risks. We conclude by providing recommendations for improvement of control strategies.

Low numbers of repeat units in variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) regions of white spot syndrome virus are correlated with disease outbreaks.

White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) is the most important pathogen in shrimp farming systems worldwide including the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The genome of WSSV is characterized by the presence of two major 'indel regions' found at ORF14/15 and ORF23/24 (WSSV-Thailand) and three regions with variable number tandem repeats (VNTR) located in ORF75, ORF94 and ORF125. In the current study, we investigated whether or not the number of repeat units in the VNTRs correlates with virus outbreak status and/or shrimp farming practice. We analysed 662 WSSV samples from individual WSSV-infected Penaeus monodon shrimp from 104 ponds collected from two important shrimp farming regions of the Mekong Delta: Ca Mau and Bac Lieu. Using this large data set and statistical analysis, we found that for ORF94 and ORF125, the mean number of repeat units (RUs) in VNTRs was significantly lower in disease outbreak ponds than in non-outbreak ponds. Although a higher mean RU number was observed in the improved-extensive system than in the rice-shrimp or semi-intensive systems, these differences were not significant. VNTR sequences are thus not only useful markers for studying WSSV genotypes and populations, but specific VNTR variants also correlate with disease outbreaks in shrimp farming systems.

Acidification of drinking water inhibits indirect transmission, but not direct transmission of Campylobacter between broilers.

In this study the effect of acidification of the drinking water of broiler chickens on both direct and indirect transmission of Campylobacter was evaluated. In the direct transmission experiment both susceptible and inoculated animals were housed together. In the indirect transmission experiment the susceptible animals were spatially separated from the inoculated animals and no direct animal to animal contact was possible. The transmission parameter ß was estimated for the groups supplied with acidified drinking water and for the control groups. The results showed that acidification of the drinking water had no effect on direct transmission (ß=3.7 day(-1) for both control and treatment). Indirect transmission however was influenced by acidification of the drinking water. A significant decrease in transmission was observed (p<0.05), with control vs. treatment point estimates being ß=0.075 day(-1) vs. ß=0.011 day(-1). Apart from providing quantitative estimations of both direct and indirect transmission of Campylobacter in broilers, this study also demonstrates the use of an experimental setup for indirect transmission of Campylobacter between broilers to assess the efficacy of candidate measures to reduce transmission.

Estimation of foot and mouth disease transmission parameters, using outbreak data and transmission experiments.

Mathematical models for the spread of foot and mouth disease (FMD) have been developed and used for a number of purposes in the recent literature. One important purpose is predicting the effect of strategies to combat between-farm epidemic spread, in support of decision-making on epidemic control. The authors briefly review the various modelling approaches, discussing the parameters used and how estimates may be obtained for these parameters. They emphasise that, in addition to the estimation of FMD transmission parameters, the choice of model structure (including the number and type of parameters used) is also crucial. Two gaps in the knowledge of FMD transmission, related to model construction and parameter quantification, are identified: transmission between different species and the way in which vaccination affects such transmission, and route-specific FMD transmission properties. In particular, the authors pay attention to the role that small-scale transmission experiments can play in bridging these gaps.

Epidemiological models to assist the management of highly pathogenic avian influenza.

In recent decades, epidemiological models have been used more and more frequently as a tool for the design of programmes for the management of infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza. Predictive models are used to simulate the effects of various control measures on the spread of the infection; analytical models are used to analyse data from outbreaks and experiments. A key parameter in these models is the reproduction ratio, which indicates to what degree the virus can be transmitted in the population. Parameters obtained from real data using the analytical models can be used subsequently in predictive models to evaluate control strategies or surveillance programmes. Examples of the use of these models are described in the current paper.

Prevalence and risk factor analysis of livestock associated MRSA-positive pig herds in The Netherlands.

In 2005, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was found in pig herds and in humans in contact with pigs. To determine the prevalence of, this now-called livestock-associated (LA) MRSA among pig herds in The Netherlands and to identify and quantify risk factors, an observational study of 202 pig herds was performed between 2007 and 2008. Five environmental wipes and 60 nasal swabs from each herd were collected, and microbiological analysis was performed on single environmental samples and pooled nasal samples. A herd was considered MRSA-positive if ≥1 sample tested positive. The prevalence of MRSA-positive herds was 67% in breeding herds and 71% in finishing herds. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was then performed on data from 171 breeding herds. The number of MRSA-positive herds increased from ∼30% at the start to ∼75% at the end of the study, most likely due to transmission between herds. The prevalence of MRSA increased with herd size, as ∼40% of smaller herds (<250 sows) were MRSA-positive compared to >80% of larger herds (>500 sows). Other risk factors (e.g. antimicrobial use, purchase of gilts and hygiene measures) were not significantly associated with MRSA, though associated with herd size. Herd size appeared to be a compilation of several factors, which made larger herds more often MRSA positive.