Assessing and planning future estuarine resource use: A scenario-based regional-scale freshwater allocation approach.

Rapid urbanisation and industrial growth in South Africa increases the need for proactive allocation of freshwater resources on a regional scale. A nine-step method is described that sets long-term targets for water resource condition and future use with a focus on estuary water quantity and quality requirements. The approach specifically focuses on the environmental flow allocation to estuaries, nested within a broader, regional (multi-catchment and multi-estuary) water resource landscape. The method differs to most other approaches in that the responses of multiple estuaries to escalating future development in a region are coherently quantified (versus only considering a single estuary in a single catchment). A case study that assessed the health, biodiversity importance and resilience to current and future pressures of 64 estuaries is used to illustrate the method. Projected growth in the study area was integrated into a range of future dam development and wastewater discharge scenarios. The results showed that estuaries around the urban centres were in poor condition, but those in the more rural areas in a more natural state. As a result of their small size, most of the estuaries in the region had little resilience to changes in freshwater quantity and nutrient loading. In contrast, the larger systems, targeted for dam development, only showed sensitivity to water abstraction during low-flow periods when base-flow reduction caused mouth closure and changes in nutrient processes. Broadly, the approach aimed to find a balance between ecological requirements and socio-economic development, which meant that maintaining larger systems in relatively good condition would be at the expense of smaller systems that are already in a poor condition. The approach developed was successful in quantifying the responses of multiple estuaries to escalating future pressures on a regional scale, and could be replicated to assist in managing water resources elsewhere in data-limited environments.

An environmental flow determination method for integrating multiple-scale ecohydrological and complex ecosystem processes in estuaries.

This paper presents an environmental flow methodology that was developed to accommodate shallow, highly dynamic micro-tidal estuaries found along the wave-dominated coast of South Arica. This method differs to most other approaches that primarily focus on larger permanently open systems having unrestricted inlets. Following an adaptive, design science research approach, the 7-step method adopted both ecohydrological and ecosystem-based concepts, encapsulating key hydrologicalhydrodynamic-biogeochemical processes, as well as biotic responses. The procedure also addresses a key challenge often encountered in applying these approaches to complex estuarine systems - the mismatch of temporal and spatial scales between abiotic processes and biotic responses. The method simplifies and aggregates abiotic processes to appropriate scales suitable for analysis of biotic responses, by introducing concepts such zoning and major physical states that characterize an estuary. The method's flexibility in data requirements lends itself to applications in countries where data is limited or where differences exist in data quality between systems. Essential in any environmental flow determination process, however, is long-term monitoring to incrementally improve confidence of the input data, but also to evaluate whether allocated flows achieve desired objectives set. Future challenges include refining the method to accommodate flow changes within much shorter timeframes and in conjunction with escalating global change pressures amongst other; pollution, living resource exploitation and physical destruction of habitat.

Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.