Trends in multiple myeloma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and survival rate in South Korea: a nationwide population-based study.

This is the first study presenting the overall descriptive epidemiology of multiple myeloma (MM), including incidence, mortality rate, and prevalence, in South Korea between 2010 and 2018 based on nationwide medical insurance coverage and mortality statistics data. The incidence of MM between 2010 and 2018 was obtained from nationwide medical claims data, and mortality data were obtained from the Korea National Statistical Office. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) and one- and five-year survival rates of patients with MM each year were estimated. There were 10,835 patients with MM aged ≥ 20 years in South Korea between 2010 and 2018. The ASIR was 2.42/100,000 in 2010 and increased to 2.71/100,000 in 2018, with an annual percent change (APC) of 1.86% (95% CI = 0.74-2.99%, P = 0.005). While this trend was significant in women, it was not statistically significant in men. The ASMR did not significantly change over time. Furthermore, the median survival time of patients with MM diagnosed between 2010 and 2018 was 3.36 years. Notably, the one-year survival rate of patients was increased from 65.3% in 2010 to 76.2% in 2017. Finally, the proportion of patients with MM who received novel therapeutic agents, such as proteasome inhibitors or immunomodulatory drugs, as first-line treatment increased from 37.7% in 2010 to 97.8% in 2018. The ASIR and prevalence of MM in South Korea increased between 2010 and 2018, especially in women and the survival rate of patients with MM has increased.

A New Approach for Understanding International Hospital Bed Numbers and Application to Local Area Bed Demand and Capacity Planning.

Three models/methods are given to understand the extreme international variation in available and occupied hospital bed numbers. These models/methods all rely on readily available data. In the first, occupied beds (rather than available beds) are used to measure the expressed demand for hospital beds. The expressed occupied bed demand for three countries was in the order Australia > England > USA. Next, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) has dual functions. Less developed countries/regions have low access to healthcare, which results in high ASMR, or a negative slope between ASMR versus available/occupied beds. In the more developed countries, high ASMR can also be used to measure the 'need' for healthcare (including occupied beds), a positive slope among various social (wealth/lifestyle) groups, which will include Indigenous peoples. In England, a 100-unit increase in ASMR (European Standard population) leads to a 15.3-30.7 (feasible range) unit increase in occupied beds per 1000 deaths. Higher ASMR shows why the Australian states of the Northern Territory and Tasmania have an intrinsic higher bed demand. The USA has a high relative ASMR (for a developed/wealthy country) because healthcare is not universal in the widest sense. Lastly, a method for benchmarking the whole hospital's average bed occupancy which enables them to run at optimum efficiency and safety. English hospitals operate at highly disruptive and unsafe levels of bed occupancy, manifesting as high 'turn-away'. Turn-away implies bed unavailability for the next arriving patient. In the case of occupied beds, the slope of the relationship between occupied beds per 1000 deaths and deaths per 1000 population shows a power law function. Scatter around the trend line arising from year-to-year fluctuations in occupied beds per 1000 deaths, ASMR, deaths per 1000 population, changes in the number of persons hidden in the elective, outpatient and diagnostic waiting lists, and local area variation in births affecting maternity, neonatal, and pediatric bed demand. Additional variation will arise from differences in the level of local funding for social care, especially elderly care. The problems associated with crafting effective bed planning are illustrated using the English NHS as an example.

The Impact of Human Cystic Echinococcosis in the Central Asian Region, 1990-2019.

Objective: This research aims to update knowledge on the regional and national sickness burden attributable to cystic echinococcosis (CE) from 1990 to 2019, as well as epidemiology and disease control, with a particular emphasis on the People's Central Asian Regions. Methods: We calculated the morbidity, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years at the global, regional, and national levels for CE in all central Asian countries from 1990 to 2019, and we analyzed the association between GDP per capita and the disease burden of CE. Results: In 2019, the three greatest numbers of CE cases were recorded in Kazakhstan [23986; 95% uncertainty interval (UI); 19796; 28908]; Uzbekistan (41079; 18351; 76048); and Tajikistan (10887; 4891; 20170) among all 9 countries. The three countries with the greatest ASIR of CE were estimated to be Kazakhstan (127.56; 95% UI: 105.34-153.8), Uzbekistan (123.53; 95% UI: 58.65-219.16), and Tajikistan (121.88; 58.57-213.93). Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan had the biggest increases (125%, 97%, and 83%, respectively) in the number of incident cases of CE, whereas Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia saw the largest decreases (45%, 8%, and 3%, respectively). Conclusion: To reduce the illness burden caused by CE, our findings may help public health professionals and policymakers design cost-benefit initiatives. To lessen the impact of CE on society, it is suggested that more money be given to the region's most endemic nations. Echinococcosis, cystic, negative health effects, life-years lost due to disability, rate of occurrence as a function of age, rate of death as a function of age.

Sex disparities of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality among patients living with tuberculosis in the United States.

Background: We aimed to determine the trend of TB-related deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: TB-related mortality data of decedents aged ≥25 years from 2006 to 2021 were analyzed. Excess deaths were estimated by determining the difference between observed and projected mortality rates during the pandemic. Results: A total of 18,628 TB-related deaths were documented from 2006 to 2021. TB-related age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were 0.51 in 2020 and 0.52 in 2021, corresponding to an excess mortality of 10.22 and 9.19%, respectively. Female patients with TB demonstrated a higher relative increase in mortality (26.33 vs. 2.17% in 2020; 21.48 vs. 3.23% in 2021) when compared to male. Female aged 45-64 years old showed a surge in mortality, with an annual percent change (APC) of -2.2% pre-pandemic to 22.8% (95% CI: -1.7 to 68.7%) during the pandemic, corresponding to excess mortalities of 62.165 and 99.16% in 2020 and 2021, respectively; these excess mortality rates were higher than those observed in the overall female population ages 45-64 years in 2020 (17.53%) and 2021 (33.79%). Conclusion: The steady decline in TB-related mortality in the United States has been reversed by COVID-19. Female with TB were disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

Global, Regional and National Burden of Human Cystic Echinococcosis from 1990 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a neglected tropical parasitic disease that poses huge disease, social and economic burdens worldwide; however, there has been little knowledge on the global morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CE until now. This study aimed to collect the most up-to-date data about the global, regional and national disease burden due to CE from 1990 to 2019 and to project trends in the next 10 years. METHODS: We measured the global, regional and national morbidity, mortality and DALYs of CE from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) data, and we examined the correlation between socioeconomic development levels and the disease burden of CE. In addition, the disease burden due to CE was projected from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of CE reduced from 2.65/105 [95% UI: (1.87/105 to 3.7/105)] in 1990 to 2.6/105 [95% UI: (1.72/105 to 3.79/105)] in 2019 (EAPC = -0.18%). The number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate due to CE all showed a tendency to decline from 1990 to 2019. A higher disease burden of CE was measured in women than in men in 2019. There was a significant difference in the ASMR of CE by region according to the socio-demographic index (SDI), and lower burdens of CE were estimated in high-SDI regions. The global ASIR of CE is projected to decline from 2020 to 2030; however, the ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate are projected to rise. CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of CE remains high, and it is recommended that more health resources are allocated to low-SDI regions, women and the elderly aged 55 to 65 years to reduce the disease burden of CE.

Trends in gastric cancer incidence and mortality in Asia and association analysis with human development index, 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the epidemiological time trends and gender, age and regional differences of gastric cancer in Asia during 1990-2019, and to analyze the association between the human development index (HDI) and the statistical indicators of the burden of disease. METHODS: Describing trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in Asia from 1990 to 2019 based on GBD-reported population-based surveillance of gastric cancer in Asia. Obtained ASIR, ASMR, and mortality to incidence ratios (MIR) for gastric cancer in different countries in 2019, with association analysis by Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric test. RESULTS: The annual percentage change in ASIR and ASMR in Asia from 1990 to 2019 was - 1.20% and - 1.91%. Male gastric cancer patients have higher ASIR and ASMR than female gastric cancer patients. Decreasing trends in ASIR and ASMR for the total population in five Asian regions. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual change in ASMR was - 2.45%, - 1.43%, - 0.53%, - 0.62%, and - 0.27% for Central Asia, East Asia, high-income Asia-Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively (p < 0.05). Both incidence and mortality were concentrated in the age groups of 85-89 and 89-94 years. Classifying Asian countries into different levels of HDI, only MIR was associated with HDI levels. CONCLUSION: ASIR and ASMR of gastric cancer in the total population, different regions, and countries in Asia from 1990 to 2019 showed an overall decreasing trend. The MIR index is suggestive of survival rates and the role of cancer care in individual countries. Asian countries should develop different strategies for gastric cancer screening and prevention according to high-risk age, high-risk gender and HDI.

The Global Burden of Type 2 Diabetes Attributable to Dietary Risks: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 reveals an increasing prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) from 1990 to 2019. This study delves into the role of dietary risk factors across different demographic and socioeconomic groups. Utilizing data from the GBD 2019, it analyzes age-adjusted T2DM metrics-death counts, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs)-stratified by age, sex, and region. The study employed Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) to track trends over time. The results show that in 2019, 26.07% of T2DM mortality and 27.08% of T2DM DALYs were attributable to poor diets, particularly those low in fruits and high in red and processed meats. There was a marked increase in both the death rate and DALY rate associated with dietary risks over this period, indicating the significant impact of dietary factors on the global T2DM landscape. Geographic variations in T2DM trends were significant, with regions like Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia experiencing the most substantial increases in Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) and Age-Standardized DALY Rate (ASDR). A positive correlation was noted between Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and T2DM burden due to dietary risk factors. The study concludes that targeted public health initiatives promoting dietary changes could substantially reduce the global T2DM burden.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Esophageal Cancer Burden Attributable to Behavioral, Metabolic, and Dietary Risk Factors From 1990 to 2019: Longitudinal Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer (EC) is the sixth leading cause of cancer-related burden with distinct regional variations globally. Although the burden of EC has decreased, the specific reasons for this decline are still unclear. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to uncover the spatiotemporal patterns of EC risk-attributable burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 so that prevention and control strategies of EC can be prioritized worldwide. METHODS: We extracted EC risk-attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) from the global burden of disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2019, in terms of behavioral, metabolic, and dietary factors by age, sex, and geographical location. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to assess the long-term trends in the ASMRs and ASDRs of EC due to specific risk factors. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the greatest decrease in EC burden was attributed to low intake of fruits and vegetables. An AAPC of -2.96 (95% CI -3.28 to -2.63) and -3.12 (95% CI -3.44 to -2.79) in ASMR and ASDR was attributable to a low-fruit diet, while an AAPC of -3.60 (95% CI -3.84 to -3.36) and -3.64 (95% CI -3.92 to -3.35) in ASMR and ASDR was attributed to a low-vegetable diet. However, the trends in ASMRs and ASDRs due to high BMI showed significant increases with an AAPC of 0.52 (95% CI 0.29-0.75) in ASMR and 0.42 (95% CI 0.18-0.66) in ASDR from 1990 to 2019 compared to significant decreases in other attributable risks with AAPC<0 (P<.05). East Asia had the largest decrease in EC burden due to low-vegetable diets, with an AAPC of -11.00 (95% CI -11.32 to -10.67) in ASMR and -11.81 (95% CI -12.21 to -11.41) in ASDR, followed by Central Asia, whereas Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest increase in ASMR and ASDR due to high BMI, with an AAPC of 3.28 (95% CI 3.14-3.42) and 3.09 (95% CI 2.96-3.22), respectively. China had the highest EC burden attributed to smoking, alcohol use, high BMI, and low-fruit diets. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a significant decrease in EC burden attributable to smoking, alcohol use, chewing tobacco, low-fruit diets, and low-vegetable diets in most countries, wherein a significant increase in the EC burden was due to high BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that smoking and alcohol consumption are still the leading risk factors of EC burden and that EC burden attributable to low intake of fruits and vegetables has shown the largest decline recently. The risks of ASMRs and ASDRs of EC showed distinct spatiotemporal patterns, and future studies should focus on the upward trend in the EC burden attributed to high BMI.

Trends in Cause-Specific Injury Mortality in China in 2005-2019: Longitudinal Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last few decades, although the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of injury has shown a significant declining trend in China, this pattern has dramatically reversed recently. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to elucidate the geographical, demographic, and temporal trends of cause-specific injuries, the reversal phenomenon of these trends, and the fluctuations of injury burden from 2005 to 2019 in China. METHODS: A longitudinal observational study was performed using the raw data of injury deaths in the National Cause-of-Death surveillance data provided by the disease surveillance points system in 2005-2019. The cause-specific injuries were divided into disparate subgroups by sex, age, urban/rural region, and eastern/central/western areas of China. The burden of injury was assessed using potential years of life lost (PYLL), average years of life lost (AYLL), and PYLL rate (PYLLR). Temporal trends of mortality rates and burden were evaluated using best-fitting joinpoint models. RESULTS: Injury deaths accounted for 7.51% (1,156,504/15,403,835) of all-cause deaths in China in 2005-2019. The crude mortality rate of all-cause injury was 47.74 per 100,000 persons. The top 3 injury types (traffic accident, falls, and suicide) accounted for 70.57% (816,145/1,156,504) of all injury-related deaths. The ASMR of all-cause injury decreased (P=.003), while the crude mortality rate remained unchanged (P=.52) during 2005-2019. A significant reverse trend in ASMR of all-cause injury was observed in urban older adults since 2013, mainly due to the inverted trend in injuries from falls. A reverse trend in ASMR of suicide was observed among individuals aged 10-24 years, with notable increases by 35.18% (annual percentage change 15.4%, 95% CI 4.1%-28.0%) in men since 2017. The AYLL and PYLLR of all-cause injury among older adults showed consistent ascending trends from 2005 to 2019 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] 6.1%, 95% CI 5.4%-6.9%, 129.04% increase for AYLL; AAPC 5.4%, 95% CI 2.4%-8.4%, 105.52% increase for PYLLR). The AYLL due to suicide for individuals aged 10-24 years showed a considerable upswing tendency (AAPC 0.5%, 95% CI 0.4%-0.7%, 8.02% increase). CONCLUSIONS: Although the ASMR of all-cause injury decreased in China from 2005 to 2019, the trend in suicide among adolescents and young adults and falls among older adults has been on the rise in recent years. Interventions should be encouraged to mitigate the cause-specific burdens of injury death.

The global estimate of premature cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of age-standardized mortality rate.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a significant cause of premature mortality worldwide, with a growing burden in recent years. Despite this, there is a lack of comprehensive meta-analyses that quantify the extent of premature CVD mortality. Study addressed this gap by estimating the pooled age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of premature CVD mortality. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of published CVD mortality studies that reported ASMR as an indicator for premature mortality measurement. All English articles published as of October 2022 were searched in four electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science (WoS), and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). We computed pooled estimates of ASMR using random-effects meta-analysis. We assessed heterogeneity from the selected studies using the I2 statistic. Subgroup analyses and meta regression analysis was performed based on sex, main CVD types, income country level, study time and age group. The analysis was performed using R software with the "meta" and "metafor" packages. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. The estimated global ASMR for premature mortality from total CVD was 96.04 per 100,000 people (95% CI: 67.18, 137.31). Subgroup analysis by specific CVD types revealed a higher ASMR for ischemic heart disease (ASMR = 15.57, 95% CI: 11.27, 21.5) compared to stroke (ASMR = 12.36, 95% CI: 8.09, 18.91). Sex-specific differences were also observed, with higher ASMRs for males (37.50, 95% CI: 23.69, 59.37) than females (15.75, 95% CI: 9.61, 25.81). Middle-income countries had a significantly higher ASMR (90.58, 95% CI: 56.40, 145.48) compared to high-income countries (21.42, 95% CI: 15.63, 29.37). Stratifying by age group indicated that the age groups of 20-64 years and 30-74 years had a higher ASMR than the age group of 0-74 years. Our multivariable meta-regression model suggested significant differences in the adjusted ASMR estimates for all covariates except study time. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis synthesized a comprehensive estimate of the worldwide burden of premature CVD mortality. Our findings underscore the continued burden of premature CVD mortality, particularly in middle-income countries. Addressing this issue requires targeted interventions to mitigate the high risk of premature CVD mortality in these vulnerable populations.

Trends in mortality in patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARD) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.

The study aimed to analyze the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality rates in patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARD) in Mexico. We selected SARD-related deaths using National Open Data and Information from the Ministry of Health, Mexico, and ICD-10 codes. We assessed the observed compared to the predicted mortality values for 2020 and 2021, employing trends from 2010 to 2019 with joinpoint and prediction modelling analyses. Among 12,742 deaths due to SARD between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) increased significantly between 2010 and 2019 (pre-pandemic) (annual percentage change [APC] 1.1%; 95% CI 0.2-2.1), followed by a non-significant decrease during the pandemic period (APC 13.9%; 95% CI 13.9-5.3). In addition, the observed ASMR of 1.19 for 2020 for SARD and of 1.14 for 2021 were lower than the predicted values of 1.25 (95% CI 1.22-1.28) for 2020 and 1.25 (95% CI 1.20-1.30) for 2021. Similar findings were identified for specific SARD, mainly systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), or by sex or age group. Interestingly, the observed mortality rates for SLE in the Southern region of 1.00 in 2020 and 1.01 in 2021 were both significantly greater than the predicted values of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77) in 2020 and 0.71 (95% CI 0.63-0.79). In Mexico, the observed SARD mortality rates were not higher than the expected values during the pandemic, except for SLE in the Southern region. No differences by sex or age group were identified.

Rapid increasing burden of diabetes and cardiovascular disease caused by high body mass index in 1.25 million Chinese adults, 2005-2018.

BACKGROUND: Temporal trends and geographical variations in disease burden for diabetes mellitus (DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in China have not been fully elucidated. METHODS: We estimated deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) for DM and CVD attributable to high BMI by age, sex, year, and region from 2005 to 2018 based on pooled data of 1.25 million adults. FINDINGS: Approximately 497,430 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 470,520-525,720) deaths for DM and CVD were attributable to high BMI in China in 2018, with 453,750 deaths from CVD and 43,700 deaths from DM. Between 2005 and 2018, there was a 17.35% increase in age-standardized mortality rate for DM and CVD attributable to high BMI. The high BMI-related DM and CVD YLL rates increased from 127.46 (95% UI 108.70-148.62) per 100,000 people aged 20-24 years to 5,735.54 (95% UI 4,844.16-6,713.53) per 100,000 people aged ≥80 years, respectively. The highest age-standardized mortality rate for high BMI-related DM and CVD in northeast, northwest, and circum-Bohai Sea regions of China. CONCLUSION: The disease burden for DM and CVD attributable to high BMI increased substantially between 2005 and 2018. Urgent measures are required at both national and regional levels for resource mobilization to slow the growing burden. FUNDING: The work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China, China National Science & Technology Pillar Program, and National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China.

Burden of liver cancer due to hepatitis C from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels.

Background: Liver cancer due to hepatitis C (LCDHC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide, and the burden of LCDHC is increasing. We aimed to report the burden of LCDHC at the global, regional, and national levels in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019, stratified by etiology, sex, age, and Sociodemographic Index. Methods: Data on LCDHC were available from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) study 2019. Numbers and age-standardized mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates per 100,000 population were estimated through a systematic analysis of modeled data from the GBD 2019 study. The trends in the LCDHC burden were assessed using the annual percentage change. Results: Globally, in 2019, there were 152,225 new cases, 141,810 deaths, and 2,878,024 DALYs due to LCDHC. From 1990 to 2019, the number of incidences, mortality, and DALY cases increased by 80.68%, 67.50%, and 37.20%, respectively. However, the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rate had a decreasing trend during this period. In 2019, the highest age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of LCDHC were found in high-income Asia Pacific, North Africa and the Middle East, and Central Asia. At the regional level, Mongolia, Egypt, and Japan had the three highest ASIRs in 2019. The incidence rates of LCDHC were higher in men and increased with age, with a peak incidence in the 95+ age group for women and the 85-89 age group for men in 2019. A nonlinear association was found between the age-standardized rates of LCDHC and sociodemographic index values at the regional and national levels. Conclusions: Although the age-standardized rates of LCDHC have decreased, the absolute numbers of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs have increased, indicating that LCDHC remains a significant global burden. In addition, the burden of LCDHC varies geographically. Male and older adult/s individuals have a higher burden of LCDHC. Our findings provide insight into the global burden trend of LCDHC. Policymakers should establish appropriate methods to achieve the HCV elimination target by 2030 and reducing the burden of LCDHC.

Secular Trends in Systemic Sclerosis Mortality in the United States from 1981 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) has the highest mortality rate among autoimmune disorders. Individuals with SSc frequently die from complications or infections related to SSc. Nonetheless, the sex-age-period interaction of SSc is complex and remains unclear. The study aims to analyze the secular trend of SSc mortality based on data regarding underlying cause of death (UCD) and multiple causes of death (MCD) and clarify the sex-age interaction with time. METHODS: The multiple-cause mortality statistics provided by the National Center for Health Statistics were used to identify all deaths in the United States from 1981 to 2020 in which SSc was indicated anywhere on the death certificates. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was determined for both sexes, as well as the variations in these rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to determine the annual percentage change (APC) of ASMR. RESULTS: A total of 44,672 and 66,259 individuals who died between 1981 and 2020 were identified based on the UCD and MCD data, respectively. According to the UCD data, SSc-related AMSR (SSc-ASMR) of the male and female decedents, respectively, declined from 5.01 and 1.94 in 1981-1990 to 4.77 and 1.32 in 2011-2020, respectively (mortality rate ratio 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.92-0.98). From 1986 to 1999, the APC of SSc-ASMR in female decedents decreased except for those aged 45-64 years (APC 2.1%, p = 0.002). For MCD analysis, in trend 1, only APC of SSc-ASMR in male decedents aged 45-64 years decreased. The SSc-ASMR of both male and female decedents fell on trend 2 arm. In 2011-2020, the ratio of UCD to MCD increased across all age groups for both sexes compared to 1981-1990. Overall, compared to the male decedents, the SSc-ASMR in female decedents increased significantly before 1999, peaked in 1999, followed by continuous decrease until 2020 according to UCD and MCD statistics. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past four decades, the SSc deaths based on the MCD data were 1.48 times more than the UCD data, and the proportion of UCD over MCD increased over time. The SSc-ASMRs in all the sex-age groups significantly decreased over the past two decades. Notably, the mortality rate ratio of women to men with SSc increased in the past four decades.

The epidemiology series of brain-related disorders in Mongolia: nationwide registry-based epidemiological study on CNS tumours in Mongolia, 2015-2019.

No epidemiological study on central nervous system tumours is available for Mongolia. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence, mortality and survival of people diagnosed with central nervous system tumours in Mongolia. It reports cancer data for the entire population (3.3 million) during the period between 2015 and 2019. Data was obtained from the National Cancer Registry of Mongolia. Diagnosis of tumours was established according to the diagnostic criteria of the International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10). Incidence and mortality rates were calculated as mean annual numbers per 100,000 population. Age-standardized incidence and age-standardized mortality rates were calculated from age-specific rates by weighting directly from the World Standard Population. The three-year survival from 2015 through 2017 was calculated between treatment types by the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. It found 515 (adults: 83 %; children: 17%) newly diagnosed central nervous system tumour cases over the five year period. The national age-standardized incidence of central nervous system tumours for the entire population was 3.7 per 100,000. The rate was higher for males than females (4.2 versus 3.4 per 100,000, respectively). Only 23% of the diagnosed cases were confirmed histologically. The most common tumour was glioma (57.6% of histologically verified tumours). In children (age 0-19 years) the age-specified incidence rate of tumours was 1.4 per 100,000. Geographically, the age-standardized incidences of the Eastern region were higher than the country average rates for both genders. During the period, 381 deaths were registered with an age-standardized mortality rate of 3.0 per 100,000 population. Furthermore, the overall three-year survival rate was 40.6% (out of 283 patients, 115 survived). The five-year prevalence of tumours was 183 and the mean per 100,000 population was 5.5. In conclusion, the data from the National Cancer Registry indicate that the incidence and survival rates of central nervous system tumours in Mongolia are relatively low. The most common location of central nervous system tumours was the brain. Glioma was the most common tumour among histologically confirmed cases. Despite the limitations, data from this study should provide information for national health policy and health care assessment. To improve the diagnosis, prognosis and treatment of central nervous system tumours, expansion of the cancer registry through collecting data on non-malignant tumours, increasing the rate of histological verification, conducting studies on cancer epidemiology and the introduction of advanced treatment technologies for central nervous system tumours are recommended.

Comparing COVID-19 mortality across selected states in India: The role of age structure.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates provide an opportunity to identify and act on the health system intervention for preventing deaths. Hence, it is essential to appreciate the influence of age structure while reporting mortality for a better summary of the magnitude of the epidemic. OBJECTIVES: We described and compared the pattern of COVID-19 mortality standardized by age between selected states and India from January to November 2020. METHODS: We initially estimated the Indian population for 2020 using the decadal growth rate from the previous census (2011). This was followed by estimations of crude and age-adjusted mortality rate per million for India and the selected states. We used this information to perform indirect-standardization and derive the age-standardized mortality rates for the states for comparison. In addition, we derived a ratio for age-standardized mortality to compare across age groups within the state. We extracted information regarding COVID-19 deaths from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme special surveillance portal up to November 16, 2020. RESULTS: The crude mortality rate of India stands at 88.9 per million population (118,883/1,337,328,910). Age-adjusted mortality rate (per-million) was highest for Delhi (300.5) and lowest for Kerala (35.9). The age-standardized mortality rate (per million) for India is (<15 years = 1.6, 15-29 years = 6.3, 30-44 years = 35.9, 45-59 years = 198.8, 60-74 years = 571.2, ≥75 years = 931.6). The ratios for age-standardized mortality increase proportionately from 45 to 59 years age group across all the states. CONCLUSION: There is high COVID-19 mortality not only among the elderly ages, but we also identified heavy impact of COVID-19 on the working population. Therefore, we recommend further evaluation of age-adjusted mortality for all States and inclusion of variables like gender, socio-economic status for standardization while identifying at-risk populations and implementing priority public health actions.

The global trends and regional differences in incidence and mortality of hepatitis A from 1990 to 2019 and implications for its prevention.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Despite decades of improved sanitation and hygiene measures and vaccine introduction, hepatitis A has been spread through numerous outbreaks globally. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to quantify hepatitis A burden at the global, regional and national levels. METHODS: Annual incident cases, deaths, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of hepatitis A between 1990 and 2019 were derived from the GBD study 2019. Percentage changes of cases and deaths, and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of ASIRs and ASMRs were calculated to quantify their temporal trends. RESULTS: Global hepatitis A incident cases increased by 13.90% from 139.54 million in 1990 to 158.94 million in 2019. ASIR of hepatitis A remained stable (EAPC = 0.00, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.01), whereas ASMR decreased (EAPC = -4.63, 95% CI -4.94 to -4.32) between 1990 and 2019. ASIR increased in low (EAPC = 0.09, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.14) and low-middle (EAPC = 0.04, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.06) socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. For GBD regions, the most significant increases of ASIR were detected in high-income Asia Pacific (EAPC = 0.53, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.66), Oceania (EAPC = 0.31, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.36), and Australasia (EAPC = 0.28, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.44). EAPC of ASIR was positively associated with SDI value in countries and territories with SDI value ≥ 0.7 (ρ = -0.310, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: There is an unfavorable trend that hepatitis A is still pending in hyperendemic regions and is emerging in low endemic regions. These highlight the need of targeted and specific strategies to eliminate hepatitis A, such as sanitation measures and a comprehensive plan for surveillance and vaccination against hepatitis A.

Social factors tend to decline age-standardized all-cause mortality rates in China during 2005-2015: evidence from an ecological study.

OBJECTIVES: It is important to understand the factors that can substantially decrease mortality rates, as multiple strategies have been implemented to improve economic development and national health in China. We aimed to describe the geographic variations and changes in the all-cause mortality rates in 2005-2015 and to investigate the social factors that tend to decline age-standardized all-cause mortality rates. STUDY DESIGN: Ecological study. METHODS: The data used came from China's National Census Survey in 2005, 2010 and 2015 and China National Statistical Yearbooks. We conducted provincial-level thematic mapping of age-standardized all-cause mortality rate trajectory groups in 2005-2015 by using ArcGIS. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were used to clarify the social factors that may have long-term relevance to declining age-standardized all-cause mortality rates. We compared the characteristics of the three provinces with the lowest mortality rates and the three provinces with the highest mortality rates to further understand the health disparities. RESULTS: The age-standardized mortality rates declined from 2000 to 2006 and from 2008 to 2019. Provinces in the low-trajectory tended to be located in the Northeast and Southeast China. The GEE results revealed that the greater the proportion of the population with senior high school education or above, the more families with flushing or pumping toilets that are not shared with other households, the more nurses per 1000 people and a stable economic growth rate were inclined to low age-standardized all-cause mortality rates (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Health disparities between different regions were still in existence even in 2015. Thus, it is critical to improve equality in economic and educational development, the distribution of healthcare professionals, and sanitation facilities, to ensure the equality of opportunities in terms of healthy lives and well-being for all. Furthermore, for developing countries, the improvement of national health urgently needs to prevent the health risks relevant to rapid industrialization and urbanization.

Cancer Mortality Rates Increasing vs Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Decreasing in the World: Future Implications.

OBJECTIVE: To highlight the current global trends in mortality for cardiovascular disease and cancer. METHODS: The World Health Organization and the World Bank DataBank databases were used to analyze mortality rates for cancer and cardiovascular disease by calculating age-standardized mortality rates (ASRs) from 2000 to 2015 for high-income, upper-middle-income, and lower-middle-income countries. Data for cancer mortality and population for 43 countries representing 5 of the 7 continents (except Australia and Antarctica) were analyzed. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2015, there was an increase in the ASR for cancer for both men and women irrespective of a country's income status, representing an overall 7% increase in cancer ASR (Pearson r, +0.99; P<.00001). We report a higher ASR for cancer in high-income countries than in upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income countries specifically; high-income countries saw a 3% increase in cancer ASR vs +31% for upper-middle-income and +19% for lower-middle-income countries (P<.01). There has been a decrease in the ASR for cardiovascular disease for the 15 years analyzed (P<.00001). In addition, high-income countries had a higher ASR for cardiovascular disease than upper-middle-income countries during the 15-year period (P<.05). CONCLUSION: We suspect that because of early detection and targeted interventions, cardiovascular disease mortality rates have decreased during the past decade. On the basis of our results, cancer mortality rates continue to rise, with the projection of surpassing cardiovascular disease mortality rates in the near future.

Different Trends in Excess Mortality in a Central European Country Compared to Main European Regions in the Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): a Hungarian Analysis.

Objective: This study examined cumulative excess mortality in European countries in the year of the Covid-19 pandemic and characterized the dynamics of the pandemic in different countries, focusing on Hungary and the Central and Eastern European region. Methods: Age-standardized cumulative excess mortality was calculated based on weekly mortality data from the EUROSTAT database, and was compared between 2020 and the 2016-2019 reference period in European countries. Results: Cumulate weekly excess mortality in Hungary was in the negative range until week 44. By week 52, it reached 9,998 excess deaths, corresponding to 7.73% cumulative excess mortality vs. 2016-2019 (p-value = 0.030 vs. 2016-2019). In Q1, only Spain and Italy reported excess mortality compared to the reference period. Significant increases in excess mortality were detected between weeks 13 and 26 in Spain, United Kingdom, Belgium, Netherland and Sweden. Romania and Portugal showed the largest increases in age-standardized cumulative excess mortality in the Q3. The majority of Central and Eastern European countries experienced an outstandingly high impact of the pandemic in Q4 in terms of excess deaths. Hungary ranked 11th in cumulative excess mortality based on the latest available data of from the EUROSTAT database. Conclusion: Hungary experienced a mortality deficit in the first half of 2020 compared to previous years, which was followed by an increase in mortality during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 7.7% cumulative excess mortality by the end of 2020. The excess was lower than in neighboring countries with similar dynamics of the pandemic.