Examining the linkage between economic policy uncertainty, coal price, and carbon pricing in China: Evidence from pilot carbon markets.

Economic policies affect companies' production decisions. And the energy consumption volume is an intuitive reflection of the enterprise's production decisions. In China, coal is the main source of carbon emissions and the most important energy source. Therefore, the coal market and the uncertainty of economic policies are both directly tied to the carbon market. This study explores both the direct impact of economic policy uncertainty and coal price on carbon prices as well as the indirect impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon prices through coal prices by utilizing the DCC-GARCH model and the NARDL model. The findings indicate that the dynamic correlations between coal prices and the CEPU are always negative and that those between the price of carbon and the CEPU vary by area. Meanwhile, the dynamic correlations between coal and carbon prices are only positive in Shenzhen and Beijing. Both coal prices and economic policy uncertainty produce asymmetrical impacts on carbon prices. Some policy implications are provided for developing the carbon markets in light of the results drawn from the study.

Pollinator peaking earlier than flowering is more detrimental to plant fecundity.

Climate change has caused asynchronous phenological shifts between most plants and their pollinators, resulting in an earlier or later appearance of peak flowering relative to peak pollinator abundance. The fitness impact of these two mismatch patterns may not be simply equivalent, but the information has so far been limited. To explore how differently plant fitness responds to the distinct mismatch patterns, we conducted a seed-setting comparative study at the individual level in an alpine grassland community in the Qilian Mountains of China. By monitoring flowering abundance and insect visits, we measured the phenological matching relationship between plants and their key pollinators, and evaluated the impact of mismatches on plant productivity. We found that the pattern of "pollinator peaks earlier" accounted for a relatively high proportion in the natural community, with a significantly stronger fitness impact on plants than that of the "flower peaks earlier" pattern. The asymmetry in the fitness impacts between phenological mismatch patterns is related to the length of flowering period. Specially, the shorter the flowering duration, the greater the difference in influence between the two patterns. Our results suggest that plants with shorter flowering periods may be confronted with more severe pollination limitations if climate warming cause insects to forage further ahead. Therefore, the asymmetric effects of phenological mismatch patterns should be considered in phenological models to improve the predictive performance of plant responses to climate change.

Asymmetric effects of crude oil prices and USD exchange rate on precious metals returns：Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak.

Trading in commodities such as precious metals and crude oil is vital to the economy. Frequent exchange rate fluctuations have led to constant changes in commodity prices since 2000. Using quantile regression, this paper examines the impact of oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from January 1, 2013 to 5 May 2023. Oil prices positively affect precious metals returns, and positive and negative oil price shocks are asymmetric. Exchange rate movements negatively affect precious metal returns. In addition, gaps in the existing literature are filled by analyzing the effects of oil prices and the exchange rate on precious metals before and during COVID-19. This paper provides substantial evidence for revising the impact of the crisis.

Impact of regional energy allocation distortion on carbon emission efficiency: Evidence from China.

The free flow of energy cannot be fully achieved in China's energy market because of incomplete market-oriented reform, resulting in energy allocation distortion, which has hampered carbon emissions reduction. However, the extent of energy allocation distortion and its role in carbon emission efficiency remain unexplored. Therefore, this study aims to measure energy allocation distortion and investigate its impact on carbon emission efficiency. For this purpose, first, we derive energy allocation distortion based on a production function and carbon emission efficiency using a meta-frontier non-radial Malmquist index. To effectively address the endogeneity issue, we use a generalized method of moments model to estimate the impact of energy allocation distortion on carbon emission efficiency. Second, we further explore the distortionary mechanism of carbon emission efficiency associated with energy allocation and analyze the asymmetric effect of energy allocation distortion on carbon emission efficiency. The results show a certain degree of energy allocation distortion throughout the country, and disparity exists among different regions. The average value of carbon emission efficiency in the eastern region is 1.0286, well ahead of the national average, demonstrating better performance than other regions. Energy allocation distortion negatively affects carbon emission efficiency, with a 1% increase in energy allocation distortion leading to a 0.251% decrease in carbon emission efficiency. Technological progress, the structure of energy consumption, and industrial structure are important transmission channels through which energy allocation affects carbon emission efficiency. The study contributes to uncovering regional energy allocation distortion and its impacts on carbon emission efficiency and providing strategic policy recommendations for improving energy allocation efficiency.

Investigating asymmetric impacts of total factor energy efficiency on carbon emissions in India.

As many complex energy relations are not linear and have diminishing returns, assuming a symmetric (linear) effect of energy efficiency (ENEF) on carbon emissions (CAE) has limited our understanding of the emission-ENEF nexus. This research, therefore, initially estimates total factor energy efficiency by applying a stochastic frontier technique using sample panels for India encompassing the period from 2000 to 2014. Further, a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework is utilised in order to investigate the asymmetric (nonlinear) long- and short-run impacts of ENEF on CAE. The findings demonstrated that ENEF has asymmetric long- and short-run impacts on CAE in India. Based on the outcomes, numerous crucial implications are discussed with a particular reference to developing economies like India.

Asymmetric effects of fine particulate matter and stringency policy on COVID-19 intensity.

This study aims to examine the influence of environmental performance (PM2.5) on COVID-19 intensity . For this purpose, we employ the newly introduced Hidden Panel Cointegration test and Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Results indicate the asymmetric linkages between PM2.5 and COVID-19 intensity, as the positive shock in PM2.5 raises the COVID-19 intensity by 21%, whereas the negative shock in PM2.5 decreases COVID-19 intensity by 12% in long-run. On the contrary, the positive shock in stringency measures decreases COVID-19 intensity by 42.8%, while the negative shock in stringency policy increases COVID-19 intensity by 66.7%. These findings imply that higher pollution increases the COVID-19 severity while higher stringency measures slow down people's movement and reduce COVID-19 intensity. However, a sudden negative shock in lockdown increases people's interaction, leading to a higher spread of the virus. These results suggest that governments should adopt stringent action plans to contain the transmissibility of COVID-19.

Impact of House Price on Economic Stability: Some Lessons from OECD Countries.

Despite having abundant literature blaming a faulty financial system and exuberant price expectations as the primary causes of housing bubbles, there is a lack of research that looks at the impact of house price instability on the economy. This study aims to fill this gap by thoroughly examining the connection between house prices and economic output, and the effect of house price volatility on economic stability. Drawing from long-spanning quarterly data from 17 OECD countries from 1970 to 2019, the study develops and tests economic growth and volatility models to uncover significant insights. The empirical results show that house price returns have a significant asymmetric impact on economic growth, with negative returns having twice the effect of positive ones. Moreover, the results indicate that house price volatility significantly contributes to economic instability. In light of these findings, the paper concludes with valuable policy recommendations to enhance the housing market and improve overall economic stability. This study provides a compelling argument for the importance of closely monitoring and regulating the real estate market in order to maintain a healthy and stable economy.

The asymmetric effects of institutional quality on financial inclusion in the Asia-pacific region.

Financial inclusions are generally considered an effective mechanism to support sustainable economic growth in emerging markets. While the symmetric effects of institutional quality on financial inclusion have been widely investigated, their asymmetric effects have largely been ignored in existing literature, particularly for emerging markets. In this paper, we estimate the index of financial inclusion for 19 countries in the Asia-Pacific region from 2004 to 2020. The institutional quality is proxied by five indicators, including (i) business sophistication, (ii) regulatory quality, (iii) investment freedom, (iv) government effectiveness, and (v) the rule of law. The advanced panel smooth transition technique ensures that the asymmetric effects of institutional quality on financial inclusion are substantiated depending on the income level across countries in the sample. We find that institutional quality's effects on financial inclusion are asymmetric depending on the income level. Our findings indicate that middle-income countries such as Vietnam and other emerging nations in the Asia-Pacific region mostly benefit from the positive effects of institutional reform to ensure more inclusive economic growth in the future.

Modeling oil price uncertainty effects on economic growth in Mexico: a sector-level analysis.

This paper analyzes the impact of international oil price uncertainty on the different economic sectors (primary, secondary, and tertiary) in Mexico in the period 1993:1-2020:4 through a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean to capture the impact of oil volatility on economic growth at the sectoral level of economic activity. The results show that the uncertainty of the international price of oil has a differentiated effect on the different sectors of economic activity in Mexico since it does not influence the primary sector; it negatively impacts the secondary sector, and there is mixed evidence in the tertiary sector. Additionally, evidence is provided that both positive and negative shocks to the international oil price have asymmetric effects at the sectoral level in Mexico. The results highlight the need to implement public policies, at the country level, that help mitigate the effect of uncertainty in the oil market and promote economic stability at the sector level.

The asymmetric nexus between air pollution and COVID-19: Evidence from a non-linear panel autoregressive distributed lag model.

The emergence of a new coronavirus (COVID-19) has become a major global concern that has damaged human health and disturbing environmental quality. Some researchers have identified a positive relationship between air pollution (fine particulate matter PM2.5) and COVID-19. Nonetheless, no inclusive investigation has comprehensively examined this relationship for a tropical climate such as India. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by investigating the nexus between air pollution and COVID-19 in the ten most affected Indian states using daily observations from 9th March to September 20, 2020. The study has used the newly developed Hidden Panel Cointegration test and Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NPARDL) model for asymmetric analysis. Empirical results illustrate an asymmetric relationship between PM2.5 and COVID-19 cases. More precisely, a 1% change in the positive shocks of PM2.5 increases the COVID-19 cases by 0.439%. Besides, the estimates of individual states expose the heterogeneous effects of PM2.5 on COVID-19. The asymmetric causality test of Hatemi-J's (2011) also suggests that the positive shocks on PM2.5 Granger-cause positive shocks on COVID19 cases. Research findings indicate that air pollution is the root cause of this outbreak; thus, the government should recognize this channel and implement robust policy guidelines to control the spread of environmental pollution.

An analysis of the asymmetric effects of natural gas consumption on economic growth in Pakistan: A non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach.

Natural gas is a vital energy resource that is used to produce the national output of Pakistan. On the other hand, since natural gas is a relatively cleaner energy resource compared to oil and coal, enhancing the level of natural gas consumption can be expected to promote economic growth while somewhat improving environmental quality in the process. Hence, it is pertinent to assess the economic growth effects associated with the consumption of such comparatively cleaner energy resources. Against this background, the main objective of this paper is to explore the asymmetric effects of natural gas consumption, controlling for financial development, on Pakistan's economic growth figure over the 1965-2019 period. The results from the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests confirm a mixed order of integration among the variables. Besides, the bounds test and the Gregory-Hansen co-integration analysis reveal evidence of long-run associations between economic growth, natural gas consumption, and financial development in the context of Pakistan. Moreover, the outcomes from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model analysis show that in the short-run, positive changes in the natural gas consumption levels increase Pakistan's economic growth. On the other hand, in the long-run, positive and negative changes in natural gas consumption levels increase and decrease the nation's economic growth level, respectively. On the other hand, both positive and negative changes in the financial development level are found to reduce Pakistan's economic growth level in the long run only. Furthermore, the Hacker-Hatemi-J causality analysis verifies that natural gas consumption causally influences the economic growth level in Pakistan; thus, verifying the energy consumption-led growth phenomenon. In line with these key findings, several policy level suggestions are put forward for Pakistan to enhance its natural gas consumption level in order to boost its economic growth rate in the future.

Subjective Well-Being and Aversion to Macroeconomic Losses: New Evidence.

This work analyses the existence of asymmetric effects on the subjective well-being of the population of different countries in response to changes in the levels of aggregate income. Microdata from the Eurobarometer and the World Values Survey are used for the period 2000-2019. This period includes several economic changes, among which are the strong expansion at the beginning of the century, the Great Recession, and the subsequent recovery. Our study includes several groups of countries. In the broadest case, the study comprises a group of 83 countries and analyses the issue both from a global perspective as well as focusing particular attention on European countries. These asymmetric effects of economic activity are in line with behavioural economics and previous literature and allow us to determine a macroeconomic aversion to losses. The results obtained support the existence of asymmetric effects of changes in aggregate income on subjective well-being, and show that losses generated in recessions require a far more vigorous recovery if they are to be compensated for, and that they might even have permanent effects. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10902-021-00401-5.

Carbon neutrality potential of the ASEAN-5 countries: Implications from asymmetric effects of income inequality on renewable energy consumption.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries are lagging behind the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to increase the share of renewable energy use and to reduce income inequality. Therefore, this study scrutinises the asymmetric effect of income inequality on renewable energy consumption in order to assess the possibility of the major ASEAN-5 countries adopting the carbon neutrality goal. The study employs a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, from 1990 to 2015. By using four income inequality proxies, the empirical results show, firstly, that an alleviation of income inequality promotes the consumption of renewable energy in the long run, and vice versa. Secondly, the asymmetric effect is found and confirms that the positive shock (worsening of inequality) of income inequality generates a larger impact on the consumption of renewable energy compared to the result from negative shock (improvement of inequality). Lastly, the Hatemi-J asymmetric Granger causality tests reveal bidirectional causality between the positive inequality shock and the consumption of renewable energy. Consequently, in terms of policy implication, there is a strong argument to reduce the degree of income inequality in ASEAN-5 in order to promote the consumption of renewable energy and to increase the feasibility of adoption of carbon neutrality targets in the region.

Asymmetric impact of exchange rate on trade between Vietnam and each of EU-27 countries and the UK: evidence from nonlinear ARDL and the role of vehicle currency.

The relationship between exchange rate and trade balance has been spotlighted in the past several decades and thus examined by manifold research. The findings, however, lack of consensus despite the intensive efforts in investigating the role of exchange rate as an important determinant of trade balance in various countries. Although the existing papers are abundant, most of them neglect the role of vehicle currency. Besides, few articles are dedicated to Vietnam, and none has inspected the exchange rate-trade balance nexus between Vietnam and the EU. This study is the first to scrutinize how bilateral exchange rates, together with vehicle currency exchange rate, asymmetrically impact Vietnam's bilateral trade balance with respect to EU-27 countries and the UK. The NARDL estimation results strongly acknowledge the importance of USD as vehicle currency when more significant short-run and long-run coefficients are found. Accordingly, this article can provide some useful implications for policy-makers, especially when Vietnam was first labelled currency manipulator by the USA in December 2020. Particularly, USD/VND movement can affect not only Vietnam-USA but also Vietnam-EU and Vietnam-UK trade balance. In addition, VND appreciation against USD seems beneficial to Vietnam's bilateral trade with the EU plus the UK.

Asymmetric correlation and hedging effectiveness of gold & cryptocurrencies: From pre-industrial to the 4th industrial revolution✰.

This paper examines the long-run and short-run asymmetric effects of gold and cryptocurrency returns on the Thai stock market. Employing daily data on gold prices from 2000 to 2019 and on cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) from 2013 to 2019 in a linear and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, we investigate and contrast the hedging effectiveness of gold and bitcoins for equities. This study also evaluates whether hedging potential of gold or cryptocurrency remains equally strong in bearish and bullish conditions of the stock market. Our key findings on stock and gold returns reveal that the effects of gold on the stock market are asymmetric in most of the cases. Negative asymmetry is more likely to occur regardless of stock market conditions. On the other hand, there is very limited evidence showing the meaningful effect of cryptocurrency. The robustness of the ARDL bounds test of co-integration provides evidence for a strong long-run relationship in all cases. Contrary to the existing literature, our results suggest that neither gold nor cryptocurrency acts as a good instrument for hedging in the stock market. Correlations between stock/gold and stock/cryptocurrency pairs are found to be positive in most cases. Our findings imply that adding gold or cryptocurrency to a stock portfolio does not enhance its risk-adjusted return.

Understanding the dynamics of the quality of airline service attributes: Satisfiers and dissatisfiers.

This research aims to determine the relationship between the quality of airline service attributes and overall satisfaction. Although a number of relevant studies have reported a linear relationship (or symmetric effect) between the two concepts, this work suggests that attribute quality exerts heterogeneous effects on satisfaction or dissatisfaction. A total of 157,035 consumer data from online reviews have been analyzed to achieve the research objective. In accordance with Herzberg, Mausner, and Snyderman's (1959) two-factor theory, the findings of this research have determined that the quality of certain service attributes, such as cleanliness, food and beverages, and in-flight entertainment, affects the variations of positive ratings as a satisfier. Other airline service attributes, such as customer service and check-in and boarding, influence the deviations of negative ratings as a dissatisfier. Apart from airline attributes, the individual features and types of airline products have been estimated to improve the understanding of such relationships. In this regard, this study provides important implications to customer-centric marketing in an airline marketplace.

Asymmetric effects of energy efficiency and renewable energy on carbon emissions of BRICS economies: evidence from nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model.

Embracing energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) is essential for improving environmental quality. This research investigates the asymmetric impacts of EE, RE, and other factors on CO2 emissions in BRICS (i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries from 1990 to 2014. In contrast to previous studies, the present study considers EE as a major cause of CO2 emissions in BRICS countries. By using the new hidden panel cointegration and nonlinear panel autoregressive distributive lag model, this study is the first of its kind that unfolds the asymmetric links among EE, RE, and CO2 emissions. Findings clearly explain that the impact of the selected variables on CO2 emissions is asymmetric, and both EE and RE help to lower CO2 emissions in BRICS countries. In the long run, positive shocks in EE and RE can significantly mitigate CO2 emissions in BRICS economies. In particular, a 1% fluctuation in the positive sum of EE reduces CO2 emissions by 0.783% in the long run. On the other hand, a 1% fluctuation in the positive component of RE reduces CO2 emissions by 0.733%. Moreover, individual country estimates suggest the heterogeneous effects among BRICS countries. Based on the empirical findings, policymakers should consider the asymmetric behavior of the EE, RE, and economic growth while formulating, energy, environment, and growth policies of BRICS countries. Graphical abstract.

Interpretation of vegetation phenology changes using daytime and night-time temperatures across the Yellow River Basin, China.

Vegetation phenology is highly sensitive to climate change and has a crucial effect on the carbon balance. Prior studies have mainly investigated the effects of mean temperature and precipitation on phenology. The asymmetric and opposing response of phenology to daytime and night-time temperature remains largely unknown. Using the satellite phenology derived from GIMMS NDVI3g datasets dating back to the 1980s, we show that significantly advanced start of the season (SOS), delayed end of the season (EOS) and prolonged length of growing season (LEN) (P < 0.05) has been taking place in the Yellow River Basin in China. The extension of LEN was more attributed to the advance of SOS than a delayed EOS. The daytime Tmax and night-time Tmin had opposite effects on the timing of SOS, MOS, and EOS in 63.1%,40.0%, and 53.5% of the pixels of the study area, respectively. If higher Tmax leads to an earlier or later transition date, an increase in Tmin systematically leads to an opposite effect. These opposite effects were obvious in SOS of 70.5%, 66.2%, and 70.6% of shrubland, grassland, and crop fields, respectively. For EOS, the opposing effects accounting for 58.2%,60.2%, and 54.5% of forest land, shrubland, and grassland, respectively. These results reveal different impacts of climate change on the daytime and night-time carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems, and such impacts vary with the land surface type. Knowledge of these opposing responses of phenology to daytime and night-time warming may help to understand the feedback of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to climate change, thus to improve the existing terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle model, which is of great significance for climate change and ecology research.

Self-efficacy moderates the relationship between health comparisons and social exclusion: results of the German ageing survey.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the consequences of health comparisons. Negative health comparisons might, for example, result in emotions such as anger or frustration. These negative emotions might intensify feelings of social exclusion. Thus, the objective of the current study was to investigate whether health comparisons are associated with social exclusion. Moreover, it was examined whether the relation between health comparisons and social exclusion is moderated by self-efficacy. METHODS: We analyzed cross-sectional data of N = 7838 individuals from the German Ageing Survey. The German Ageing Survey is a representative sample of community-residing individuals aged 40 and over. An established social exclusion scale was used. The degree of self-efficacy was measured according to Schwarzer and Jerusalem. Health comparisons were measured with the question "How would you rate your health compared with other people your age" (Much better; somewhat better; the same; somewhat worse, much worse). RESULTS: Multiple linear regressions revealed that negative health comparisons were associated with feelings of social exclusion in men, but not women. Furthermore, positive health comparisons were weakly associated with decreased feelings of social exclusion in men. The association between negative as well as positive health comparisons and social exclusion in men was significantly moderated by self-efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of the present study suggests that negative health comparisons are associated with feelings of social exclusion in men. In conclusion, comparison effects are not symmetric and predominantly upwards among men in the second half of life. Strengthening self-efficacy might be fruitful for attenuating this relationship.